Tucson MARKETBEAT. Multifamily Q4 2017

Transcription

1 ECONOMIC INDICATORS National MSA Vacancy Rate Average Monthly Rent Q4 16 Q4 17* 12-Month Forecast GDP Growth 1.8% 2.3%* CPI Growth 1.8% 2.0%* Consumer Spending Growth 2.8% 2.6%* Retail Sales Growth 3.7% 4.3%* *Q3 values **Forecast by Cushman & Wakefield. Values represent year-over-year % change. Q4 16 Q4 17 Household Income $50,372 $51,764 Population Growth 0.37% 0.36% Unemployment 4.6% 4.1% Source: Moody s Analytics 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% $740 $720 $700 $680 $660 $640 $620 $ Month Forecast Q Q4 17 Economy s economic health generally tracks that of Arizona and the nation as a whole, which bodes well for our region. Personal income for the U.S. in November was up 3.8% over a year ago. This is good news because inflation over that period was up only about 2.0%. According to Eller College economists, the MSA job data preliminarily reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics is likely understated by thousands of jobs, and once adjusted in the spring for actuals, will reflect what is felt in the marketplace: that employment has steadily grown every quarter since Q Housing permit activity was up 16.7% year-overyear through November, while median home prices are up 12.2%, all trending very favorably after several years of limited growth. Market Overview The vacancy rate of conventionally-operated, stabilized units improved 0.21% from the last quarter, while improving 0.57% from one year ago to 6.30%. The lowest fourth quarter vacancy of 4.68% occurred in the Northeast submarket, followed by the 4.87% rate recorded in Catalina Foothills Submarket. The highest vacancy rate was 8.63% in the Southeast submarket. Eight of s 15 submarkets experienced improvement in vacancy, with the greatest declines occurring in Southeast (-1.49%) and South /Airport (-1.04%). Total absorption in fourth quarter 2017 increased by 212 units. North Central added the greatest number of units (72) while East suffered the largest decline of units (51). The average monthly gross apartment rent without utilities in Metropolitan was $729 per unit or $0.98 per square foot for the fourth quarter, representing a $11 or 1.53% increase from last quarter. There were a total of 6 arms-length transactions that occurred in the 4th quarter 2017 (over 40 units). The average sales price was $97,855 per unit or $ per square foot. Investment Market Overview Sales velocity for 4 th quarter 2017 slowed down significantly. The slow down is due to a few factors including a widening of buyer and seller expectations along with limited inventory in the marketplace. Developers are encouraged with the improving rental market fundamentals and have begun developing projects outside the University and Downtown submarkets. Lending has been extremely encouraging throughout the 2017 calendar year. We are being approached by various banks about financing options for multi-family. Investor interest continues to far surpass the supply leading to a seller s market. Pricing has continued to be pushed due to the demand and lack of inventory. We see the apartment rental market continuing to improve; however, we see inventory levels to be constrained in 2018.

2 Historic Rents- Stabilized Projects (Unfurnished No Utilities) SUBMARKET 4Q Q Q Q Q 2017 AVG LAST 4 QTRS Oro Valley/Catalina $949 $942 $945 $932 $992 $953 Northwest $840 $838 $882 $880 $910 $878 Catalina Foothills $724 $731 $772 $789 $809 $775 Northeast $887 $868 $888 $906 $891 $888 East $662 $669 $677 $691 $693 $683 North Central $624 $630 $638 $647 $649 $641 Flowing Wells $591 $592 $602 $611 $614 $605 Foothills $787 $796 $812 $819 $825 $813 University $745 $745 $781 $845 $842 $803 South Central $602 $609 $612 $626 $623 $618 Pantano/Lakeside $634 $650 $657 $662 $672 $660 South/Airport $544 $550 $554 $562 $565 $558 Southwest $630 $637 $661 $665 $671 $659 Southeast $528 $528 $532 $533 $545 $535 Average $650 $652 $668 $678 $687 $671 Percentage Vacant (Stabilized Units) SUBMARKET 4Q Q Q Q Q 2017 AVG LAST 4 QTRS Oro Valley/Catalina Northwest Catalina Foothills Northeast East North Central Flowing Wells Foothills University South Central Pantano/Lakeside South/Airport Southwest Southeast Average , AZ amendelsberg@ dleibsohn@

3 Villas at San Dorado N. Oracle Rd $50,550, A ,000 $155,538 $ Dasmen Residential Portfolio 4 locations $46,000, B ,454 $39,249 $80.07 Mission Palms 951 W. Orange Grove Rd $37,250, B ,928 $103,472 $99.89 The Condominiums at Williams 5400 E. Williams Blvd Centre $30,090, B ,151 $115,287 $ The Condominiums at Williams 5400 E. Williams Blvd Centre $30,090, B ,220 $115,287 $ Summit Vista 4701 W. Linda Vista Blvd $29,560, A ,302 $102,639 $ Avilla Marana 4050 W. Aerie Dr $26,612, B ,033 $93,706 $ The Ledges at West Campus Apartment 2162 W. Speedway Blvd $23,000, B ,000 $112,195 $85.50 The Enclave at the Foothills 7300 N. Mona Lisa Rd $21,800, B ,976 $72,667 $83.53 Crescent Ridge 3980 W. Linda Vista Blvd $21,534, B ,106 $79,170 $83.11 Las Villas De Kino 5515 S. Forgeus Ave $21,000, B ,844 $60,345 $81.13 Junction at Iron Horse 504 E. 9th St $19,320, A ,511 $257,603 $ Avilla Marana II 4115 W. Aerie Dr $18,917, B ,000 $66,611 $ La Entrada Apartments 255 N. Granada Ave $17,500, A ,738 $94,086 $93.71 Peaks at Redington 7700 E. Speedway Blvd $14,500, B ,382 $48,173 $66.70 Brookwood Apartment Homes 201 S. Kolb Rd $13,000, B ,784 $47,794 $62.87 Raintree Apartments 6450 E. Golf Links Rd $12,475, B ,680 $34,272 $71.83 Arches at Oracle Apartments 5921 N. Oracle Rd $12,400, B ,336 $86,111 $95.87 Canyon Heights 550 N. Pantano Rd $11,250, B ,900 $57,398 $87.96 Zona Village 2855 W. Anklam Rd $10,050, B ,366 $54,918 $ Capistrano Apartments 2929 E. 6th St $8,600, B ,000 $76,786 $86.00 INDI 1920 N. 1st Ave $8,320, B 89 97,818 $93,483 $85.06 Cordova Village 2020 S. Columbus Blvd $8,000, B ,446 $25,157 $63.77 Bella Vista 3201 E. Seneca St $7,610, C ,062 $43,239 $52.10 El Conquistador Apartments 1881 E. Irvington Rd $7,540, B ,074 $37,512 $93.00 The Commons on Stella 6534 E. Stella Rd $7,530, B ,200 $37,650 $41.56 Casa Madera 7374 N. Mona Lisa Rd $7,300, B 80 94,080 $91,250 $77.59 Villa Pacifica 4650 E. 29th St $7,282, B ,749 $41,378 $64.59 Santa Cruz Vista, Riverview Villas, Westlake Village Sunflower Apartments Community 3 locations $7,050, B ,840 $29,873 $ E. Golf Links Rd $6,668, B ,400 $46,311 $85.06 Casa Loma 6639 E. Broadway Blvd $6,525, B ,513 $48,333 $62.43, AZ amendelsberg@ dleibsohn@

4 The Place at Ten N Camino Seco Road $6,300, B ,664 $52,500 $84.38 Juniper Canyon 3055 N. Flowing Wells Rd $6,279, C ,407 $44,485 $78.43 Broadway Proper 7680 E. Broadway Blvd $6,000, C ,000 $57,143 $75.00 Rosemont Gardens* 5121 E. 29th Street $5,765, C 92 53,348 $62,663 $ Casa De Oro* 5171 E. 29th Street $5,765, C 60 30,000 $96,083 $ Sunpointe Gardens Apartments 2727 N. Oracle Rd $5,500, C ,280 $33,537 $78.26 El Dorado Apartments 2440 E. Glenn St $5,475, B 96 61,535 $57,031 $88.97 The Place at Nine E. River Rd $5,100, B 72 35,080 $70,833 $ Sierra Pointe Apartments 2350 E. Water St $4,400, B 84 83,750 $52,381 $52.54 University Manor Apartments 730 E. Lee St $4,250, B 58 21,378 $73,276 $ Georgetown 2510 N. Winstel Blvd $4,224, C 96 71,659 $44,000 $58.95 Park Adams Apartments 1425 N. Park Ave $3,750, C 46 34,532 $81,522 $ Sahuaro Point Villas N. 6th Ave $3,500, B 20 34,960 $175,000 $ Tuscany Apartment Homes 4399 E. Pima St $3,350, C 80 88,372 $41,875 $37.91 Desert Palms 3125 N. Alvernon Way $3,100, C 68 37,680 $45,588 $82.27 Catalina Vista 8550 E. Old Spanish Trl $2,980, C 50 44,459 $59,600 $67.03 Montclair Apartments N. Alvernon Way $2,400, C 59 45,211 $39,344 $53.08 Loma Doroda Apartments N. Craycroft Rd $2,300, C 54 36,354 $42,593 $63.27 Malibu N. 1st Ave $2,244, C 65 33,760 $34,523 $66.47 Eastpointe Apartments 8477 E. Broadway Blvd $2,100, B 49 21,217 $42,857 $98.98 Desert Tree 3450 N. Stone Ave $2,000, C 74 48,704 $27,027 $41.06 Blacklidge Flats 3002 N. Mountain Ave $1,980, C 34 34,000 $58,235 $58.24 Park Village Apartments 5290 S. Park Ave $1,925, B 60 32,388 $32,083 $59.44 Arroyo Chico Apartments 1402 E. Manlove St $1,894, C 61 47,216 $31,049 $40.11 Croftwood Apartments 1005 S. Craycroft Rd $1,870, C 52 30,521 $35,962 $61.27 Villa Delano Apartments 123 W. Delano St $1,850, B 33 29,182 $56,061 $63.40 Peachtree 840 N. Alvernon Way $1,725, C 40 32,872 $43,125 $52.48 Palm Gardens 3727 E. 5th St $1,700, C 45 30,060 $37,778 $56.55 Kelso Vista 450 W. Kelso St $1,700, C 40 23,884 $42,500 $71.18 Villa Del Ray Apartments 4302 E. Fairmount St $1,555, C 24 33,204 $64,792 $46.83 Belair Apartments 435 E. 18th Street $1,515, C 33 17,270 $45,909 $87.72 Villa Delano 123 W. Delano St $1,500, C 32 29,182 $46,875 $51.40 Baca Apartments 446 E. Pastime Rd $1,425, C 30 35,000 $47,500 $40.71, AZ amendelsberg@ dleibsohn@

5 Pueblo Sands 51 W. Delano St $1,375, B 29 20,300 $47,414 $67.73 Bellevue Street Apartments E. Bellevue St $1,320, B 27 29,396 $48,889 $44.90 Wildflower 2850 N. Alvernon Way $1,250, B 28 16,488 $44,643 $75.81 Country Club Court 2152 N. Country Club Rd $1,205, C 26 27,000 $46,346 $44.63 Mount Ridge Apartments 3002 N. Mountain Ave $1,195, C 34 34,000 $35,147 $35.15 Vista De La Luna 4015 E. Monte Vista Dr $1,175, C 32 14,080 $36,719 $83.45 Pima Gardens Apartment E. Pima St $1,050, C 27 20,000 $38,889 $52.50 Coronado Vista 4424 E. Bellevue St $1,025, C 21 15,428 $48,810 $66.44 Pie Allen Apartments 824 E. 10th St $1,020, C 20 11,189 $51,000 $ nd Street Apartments 3653 E. 2nd St $1,000, C 39 46,648 $33,333 $21.44 Bellevue Apartments 3414 E. Bellevue St $965, C 20 11,904 $48,250 $81.07 Thurber Apartments 557 W. Thurber Rd $965, C 36 22,916 $26,806 $42.11 Bellevue Apartments 3414 E. Bellevue St $965, C 20 11,904 $48,250 $81.07 Craig Apartments N. Craycroft Rd $835, C 23 18,000 $36,304 $46.39 Vista Del Sol Apartments 3810 E. Monte Vista Dr $832, C 24 11,200 $34,667 $ North Country Club Road Apartments N. Country Club Rd $824, C 22 11,822 $37,455 $69.70 Palo Verde View Apartments 2438 N. Palo Verde Rd $730, C 24 11,350 $30,417 $64.32 Sahuaro Arms Apartments 240 W. Sahuaro St $650, C 20 8,620 $32,500 $75.41 The Lariat 3264 E. Benson Hwy $320, C 25 21,250 $12,800 $15.06 TOTALS / AVERAGES A and B PROPERTIES $579,310, ,613 6,199,169 $73,267 $92.78 Portfolio Sales C PROPERTIES $75,354, ,087 1,475,816 $43,078 $64.12 ALL PROPERTIES $654,664, ,700 7,674,985 $58,818 $79.16, AZ amendelsberg@ dleibsohn@