Report warehouse market in the first half of 2018

Transcription

1 Report warehouse market in the first half of 218 The warehouse market continues to surprise with record results. Over 2 million sq m were leased in the first 6 months of 218 Positive macroeconomic data, including an increase in the GDP forecast to 5%, is reflected in the results for the warehouse sector. In the first half of the year, 2.2 million sq m of modern warehouse space was leased, of which 65% Net demand 1.31 mln sq m Gross demand 2.2 mln sq m New supply 64, sq m were new lease agreements and expansions. Developers are not slowing down the pace, as at the end of June there were over 2.3 million sq m under construction, of which about Under construction 2.3 mln sq m 5% will be delivered on the market by the end of the year. Despite the high number of new investments, the vacancy rate fell to 4%. Vacancy* 4% Rents Compared to the H1 217 *Compared to the Q1 218 Axi Immo Group Sp. z o. o. 18 Twarda St. -15 Warsaw office@axiimmo.com

2 Demand A fter a very strong first quarter, the number of transactions in the second was lower by 37%, but in a row over 43, sq m were leased in the first 6 months. However, the market which recorded the highest in total, a record number of 2.2 million sq m was leased within 6 months. This figure is better by 11% compared to the first half of % of transactions were new lease agreements and expansions. The highest gross demand, i.e. new contracts and extensions, was recorded in Central Poland, where since the beginning of the year 43, sq m has been leased. The Warsaw region took second place (38, sq m) and (287, sq m) also growth (512%) in demand was, which translated into 153, sq m of rented warehouse and production space. The high result of the region is mainly due to the lease agreement for 13, sq m for Zalando near Olsztynek, but the number of transactions in progress indicates increased interest in the eastern part of the country by new operators and manufacturing companies present in the region. achieved impressive results. Most new lease agreements were signed in the, Warsaw and regions. It is also worth mentioning that the Poznań region, after a downturn last year, recorded an increase in demand of 67%. Over 26, sq m were leased in Poznań, over The demand side is dominated by the five traditional 15, sq m more than in the first half of 217. locations in which 1.56 million sq m was leased, but the number of transactions in smaller and new markets is constantly growing. The share of new regions in the demand structure was 23%, 12% more than in the same period last year. The highest interest among tenants was maintained in, where for the second year In the demand structure, logistic operators with a market share of 34% were in first place, followed by retail chains with 19%. It is also worth noting the systematically growing share of manufacturing companies in the structure of demand reaching over 1%. Demand in regions in sq m H1 218 sq m Warsaw Suburbs Warsaw Inner City Kielce New agreements Renewals 2

3 The selected lease transactions in H1 218 Tenant Property Region Type of contract Leased space (sq m) Zalando BTS Hillwood 13, Leroy Merlin BTS Panattoni 124, Metsä Tissue Hillwood Krapkowice Renewal + expansion 45,6 Arvato Panattoni Park Stryków III 43, Flex Logicor Łódź II Renewal + expansion 38, Clipper P3 Poznań + renewal 36,4 Dovista 7R Tczew 2,5 Supply D evelopers activity is at a high level, with 64, sq m put into operation since the beginning of the Developers are taking advantage of very good market conditions and deliver record numbers of square year. It is a good result, but 11% lower compared to the same period last year. metres. At the end of June, 2.3 million sq m were under construction, 6, sq m more than in the same period last year. The most space under construction is From January to the end of June, most new space was supplied in (225, sq m), followed by the Warsaw region (115, sq m) and (nearly 1, sq m). In total, these three regions in (71, sq m), followed by Upper Silesia (36, sq m) and the Warsaw area with around 24, sq m. Among the new locations, the most is being built in with over 215, sq m. generated 68% of the total new supply in the first half of this year. At the end of June, total warehouse stock in Poland reached over 14.5 million sq m. The following developers had the largest share in the new supply: Panattoni (65%), then, far behind the leader, Goodman The share of speculative investments remains at a stable level of 28%. Projects in which 4-5% of space has signed pre-let agreements predominate, while the remaining part is being speculatively built. (12%), P3 (8%) and Hillwood (6%). 3

4 Space under construction at the end of H1 218 sq m 7 Projects under construction percentage share in the regions by the end of H Warsaw suburbs Kielce Warsaw City Warsaw suburbs Kielce Warsaw City 7.1%,7% 4.5% 3.5% 2.% 1.8% 1.5% 1.1% 5.3% 8.5% 9.3% 9.3% 3.5% 15.% Selected new projects delivered in H1 218 Region Project/Park Space in sq m Developer Panattoni Central European Logisitc Hub 117, Panattoni Europe Hillwood Świecko 42, Hillwood Warsaw Panattoni Park Konotopa II 42, Panattoni Europe Warsaw P3 Park Błonie 33, P3 Logistics Parks Panattoni Park Zielona Góra 33, Panattoni Europe Silesian Logisitc Center 11,5 BIK MLP Park Gliwice 11, MLP Group 4

5 Vacancy rates S table, high demand, even with a high number of new investments, means that the vacancy rate is There is a lack of ready space in. Tenants in young markets also have little choice, i.e. in Bydgoszcz declining. At the end of June this year, the vacancy rate was 4% and was lower by.2 pp compared to the previous quarter and 1.9% lower than in the first half of 217. and Toruń (.25%), (.75%) and (1.5%). The highest availability due to the size of the regions and the natural rotation of tenants occurs in the main markets, i.e. (6.4%), the Warsaw region (5.8%) and Poznań (5.3%). Stock and vacanacy rate at the end of H % 3 6% 2 4% 1 2% % Warsaw Inner City Warsaw Suburbs Existing space (sq m) Vacancy rates (%) Rents S ince the beginning of the year, rents in most regions have been growing, especially in newly built attractive effective rents remain available in the Warsaw area ( EUR/sq m), mainly in existing facilities. An properties. The increase in transaction rates is an effect upward trend is also visible in Poznań and Wrocław. of higher costs associated with the investment. The most 5

6 Effective rents in regions (EUR/sq m/month) in H Warsaw Inner City Warsaw Suburbs Bydgoszcz and Torun Effective rents (EUR/sq m) Forecast T he warehouse market in Poland is becoming increasingly mature, but the demand for new Municipal investments necessary for the implementation of quick deliveries to the end customer will gain in warehouse and production space is not diminishing due to high consumption, good production indicators and investments by companies. The sector s potential is still very high, despite the increasingly visible problem of labour shortage. importance. Projects of this type have so far been implemented mainly in Warsaw, Wrocław and Łódź. Currently, developers, in response to changes in supply chains, are implementing and preparing investments that will fit into last mile logistics. Panattoni with the City Logistics format and 7R with the City Flex platform are The development of new warehouse locations in former particularly active in this field. provincial capitals will continue. The reorganisation of supply chain models and new sections of the A1 motorway and expressways will encourage new investments in cities such as Częstochowa, Gorzów Wielkopolski and Kalisz. The upward trend in rental rates will continue, due to higher costs of land purchase and the construction of new projects. However, despite the increase in rents by.2 to.5 euros per sq m, rental rates in Poland still remain highly competitive in relation to Western European countries or even our southern neighbour the Czech Republic. 6

7 Contact Anna Głowacz Head of Industrial - Leasing Agency anna.glowacz@axiimmo.com Monika Rykowska PR & Marketing Director monika.rykowska@axiimmo.com Barbara Szymańska-Wieczorek Industrial & Research Coordinator b.szymanska-wieczorek@axiimmo.com Copyright 218 AXI IMMO. All rights reserved. The information contained in this document is proprietary to AXI IMMO and shall be used solely for the purposes of evaluating this proposal. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of AXI IMMO. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy thereof. We would like to be told of any errors in order to correct them. Axi Immo Group Sp. z o. o. 18 Twarda St. -15 Warsaw office@axiimmo.com