Monthly Market Watch for Maricopa County An overview of what is happening in the Maricopa County real estate market

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1 Monthly Market Watch for Maricopa County An overview of what is happening in the Maricopa County real estate market Provided by Susan Kraemer of Prudential Arizona Properties

2 Report overview: This report includes MLS data for the past 36 months in Maricopa County only as provided by the FlexMLS system. Please note that searches fluctuate daily when running these reports; these figures were obtained on 8/4/13. A reminder that you need to meet with a real estate professional to see how statistics impact the area where you are considering selling or buying blended statistics will not be as accurate as a more detailed report that your real estate professional can provide to help you with your decision making.

3 Total # of Closed Sales (36 month overview) Closed Sales Provided by Susan Kraemer Sta4s4cs from JULY 2013 MLS Apr May 7500 Mar June 6500 July Aug Oct Dec 5500 Sep Nov Feb Jan 4500 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July 8/10 to 7/ /11 to 7/ /12 to 7/

4 Closed Sales Report Analysis: The month of July showed a decrease of 5.2% in the number of closed sales. The statistics show that we had 6,904 residential homes sell in July in Maricopa County compared to 7,286 in the month of June. This is due in part to the decreased inventory, and it does follow the trend of the prior two years during the month of July. For buyers, this mean that the shortage of inventory continues. Fewer buyers were able to find and successfully close on a home last month when compared to last month. As prices and interest rates continue to rise, buyers need to make sure they don t get priced out of buying their home.

5 REO, SHORT SALE & NON- DISTRESSED SALES COMPARISON JULY 2013 Distressed Sales Provided by Susan Kraemer Sta4s4cs from JULY 2013 MLS NON- DISTRESSED SALES 79% REO SALES 8% SHORT SALES 13% REO SALES SHORT SALES NON- DISTRESSED SALES

6 A bank owned/foreclosure home is one that the seller no longer owns it has been taken over by the lender(s) who had a note on the home. Short sales are homes where the seller is negotiating with the bank to forgive a portion of the debt in order to avoid foreclosure. The market stabilized last month, as we saw no change in the ratio of distressed vs. non-distressed sales. Bank-owned sales remained at 8% of closed sales, and short sales remained at 13%. Sellers and buyers need to monitor this trend to see how the market continues to respond to the current inventory.

7 10000 Total # of Pending Sales (36 month overview) Pending Sales Provided by Susan Kraemer Sta4s4cs from JULY 2013 MLS Apr July Mar May 6000 Feb Jan Aug Oct June 5000 Sep Nov Dec 4000 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July 8/10 to 7/ /11 to 7/ /12 to 7/ /10 to 7/11 8/11 to 7/12 8/12 to 7/13

8 July saw an astounding 19.6% increase in the number of homes that moved to pending status. Last month saw a total of 6,832 homes moving to under contract or pending status. Sellers should continue to monitor these numbers to determine what type of activity there should be on their homes as we move into the summer months. This increase is NOT normal for the month of July, so it shows that buyers are paying attention to the increasing prices and interest rates and taking action to buy now. Educated and savvy buyers understand that a competitive market gives them fewer options for home choices, negotiating on price AND looking for concessions from a seller. Although this may vary from area to area AND from price range to price range, buyers need to make sure they are fully informed regarding the individual market in which they have an interest. This will give them the best chance of being competitive in the search for a home. With the recent increase in interest rates, it will be important to monitor its impact on future sales.

9 Average Sales Price (36 month overview) Average Sales Price Provided by Susan Kraemer Sta4s4cs from JULY 2013 MLS $250,000 $240,000 $230,000 $220,000 $210,000 $200,000 $190,000 $180,000 $170,000 $160,000 $150,000 May Apr Mar Feb Dec Jan Oct Nov Sep Aug Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July 8/10 to 7/11 $171,036 $165,730 $170,326 $167,154 $163,403 $163,403 $162,283 $165,559 $167,850 $165,431 $165,035 $160,463 8/11 to 7/12 $155,656 $159,762 $158,517 $165,881 $168,365 $170,133 $172,603 $188,088 $197,336 $210,145 $205,624 $204,057 June July 8/10 to 7/11 8/11 to 7/12 8/12 to 7/13 8/12 to 7/13 $196,857 $205,686 $211,537 $211,852 $218,945 $216,076 $225,803 $230,876 $237,810 $247,476 $247,438 $247,490

10 For the second month in a row, we saw the average sales price of a home in Maricopa County stay relatively the same as the prior month. The average price increased slightly from $247,438 to $247,490; this is the second highest average in the 36-month reporting period. Sellers need to remain diligent about pricing homes according to the current market and to understand how this increase impacts individual homes. Sellers are encouraged to spend time with their real estate professional to determine what is happening in their local market. This stat is an indicator that buyers continue to pay more for homes than in the past 36 months. Educated and savvy buyers understand that a competitive market gives them fewer options for home choices, negotiating on price AND looking for concessions from a seller. Although this may vary from area to area AND from price range to price range, buyers need to make sure they are fully informed regarding the individual market in which they have an interest. This will give them the best chance of being competitive in the search for a home.

11 Average Days on Market Provided by Susan Kraemer Sta4s4cs from JULY 2013 MLS Average Days on Market (36 month overview) Aug Oct Dec Jan Feb Mar Sep Apr 60 May Nov June July 50 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July 8/10 to 7/ /11 to 7/ /12 to 7/ /10 to 7/11 8/11 to 7/12 8/12 to 7/13

12 The month of July saw the average days on market decrease from 62 to 61 days. We have seen this average continue to drop for the past 5 months when we were at an average of 71 days in February. Considering we were at 139 days a few years ago, there is no doubt the current market continues to have an impact on how quickly homes are selling. With home prices and buyer activity on the increase, it should come come as no surprise that well-priced homes continue to go under contract within a very short period of time. If a home isn t selling in today s market, there is strong likelihood that it is because buyers see the price as being too high. Inventory continues to move quickly. As a result, buyers need to be aware that competition for great homes continues to remain very high, especially in the lower price ranges. The importance of having a reliable lender AND real estate professional to guide you through this process has never been more important.

13 Average List to Sales Price Ratio Provided by Susan Kraemer Sta4s4cs from JULY 2013 MLS 99.00% Average List to Sales Price Ra4o (36 month overview) Sep 98.50% Oct Nov June 98.00% July Aug May Dec Mar 97.50% Feb Apr Jan 97.00% 96.50% 96.00% 95.50% 95.00% 94.50% 94.00% Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July 8/10 to 7/ % 95.45% 95.49% 95.78% 94.40% 95.05% 95.18% 95.18% 95.58% 96.03% 96.60% 96.60% 8/11 to 7/ % 98.10% 96.68% 96.77% 96.15% 96.56% 96.92% 95.60% 96.70% 97.24% 97.93% 97.19% 8/12 to 7/ % 98.64% 98.04% 97.77% 97.42% 97.05% 97.20% 97.35% 97.27% 97.40% 97.90% 97.69% 8/10 to 7/11 8/11 to 7/12 8/12 to 7/13

14 This is the ratio a seller receives when selling his/her home as compared to the price where the home was. The higher the number, the closer the final sales price is to the listing price. Last month saw this number decrease slightly from 97.9% to 97.69% This is the third highest the number has been since October of last year, and it means sellers ARE, on average, getting almost 100% of the price where a home is listed. Continue to watch this trend, as it will continue to impact how homes should be priced in the current market in order to appeal to the buyers. Buyers need to pay attention. As this average remains very close to 100%, on lower priced/highly desirable properties, buyers are still finding homes in the lower price ranges where they may have to pay above list price AND they are competing with investors who are bringing cash to the transaction. Since a home must appraise in order to obtain a loan, underwriters are still looking very closely at prices and making sure that homes are selling at or below market value. This could mean that investors have an advantage if they are willing to pay higher than the list price. Make sure your real estate professional helps you understand the competitiveness of the list price of the home you are wanting to purchase. Pay attention as well to sales activity in the area where you are wanting to buy and how the offer you are making competes with the market AND with trends relative to the price where homes are selling in the areas you have an interest.

15 Monthly Expired & Cancelled Listings Provided by Susan Kraemer Sta4s4cs from JULY 2013 MLS Monthly Expired and Cancelled Lis4ngs (36 month overview) 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 Dec 2,500 2,000 1,500 Aug Oct Jan May Sep Nov Apr June Feb Mar July 1,000 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July 8/10 to 7/11 4,311 4,323 4,311 3,697 4,701 4,046 3,407 4,180 3,488 3,468 3,233 2,484 8/11 to 7/12 2,358 2,089 1,936 1,957 2,407 1,876 1,698 1,868 1,713 1,997 1,788 1,787 8/12 to 7/13 1,848 1,709 1,935 1,737 2,696 1,791 1,539 1,632 1,767 1,880 1,821 1,686 8/10 to 7/11 8/11 to 7/12 8/12 to 7/13

16 July saw a decrease of 7.4% over the prior month when looking at the number of expired and cancelled listings. 1,686 homes left the market without selling. The lower this number, the better sellers are succeeding in selling their homes. This is the second month in a row that we have seen this number decrease, so sellers should remain very focused on monitoring their local market to ensure that they are pricing homes and offering terms that are appealing to buyers. This number shows how many sellers gave up on offering their homes for sale to potential buyers. For buyers, be aware that there are 1,686 fewer homes to consider. At a time when inventory continues to shrink, this means the market continues to remain very tight for buyers in most price ranges. Buyers can expect more competition and less room for negotiation on price and/or concessions from sellers. A shrinking market means that savvy buyers will understand that they need to be prepared to act quickly on available homes and now that the ability to get a deal on this inventory is more than likely not an option. Continue to watch this trend, as this, combined with price, days on market, and list to sales price ratio are an important indicator of what buyers need to do in order to be successful in closing on the home of their dreams.

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18 New Lis4ngs (by month) New Listings Provided by Susan Kraemer Sta4s4cs from JULY 2013 MLS Mar Apr May June Oct Feb Jan Aug Sep Nov Dec Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July July 8/10 to 7/11 8/11 to 7/12 8/12 to 7/13 8/10 to 7/ /11 to 7/ /12 to 7/

19 The month of July saw 8,111 new homes enter the market, a decrease of 1.3% compared to the month of June. Sellers should monitor this new inventory to see how it might impact the sale of their home even though the number dropped, there are still homes on the market that serve as competition for a seller wanting to sell his/her home in today s market. In this great market, it is even more important that sellers need to make sure they remain as the top choice for active buyers in the marketplace. If your home is not selling in this aggressive market, it is more than likely a pricing issue buyers are still looking for the best value possible. Buyers pay attention! July brought you 8,111 more choices. Although buyers do have more options, the other statistics in this report reveal that well priced homes are not staying on the market very long. More than ever, it is essential that you take advantage of this new inventory. Spend time with and listen to your real estate professional to develop your strategy for succeeding in a market that is constantly changing.

20 Ac4ve Lis4ngs in ARMLS (36 month Summary - Residen4al in ARMLS) Active Listings Provided by Susan Kraemer Sta4s4cs from JULY 2013 MLS 38,000 33,000 28,000 23,000 18,000 13,000 8,000 Mar Oct Nov Jan Dec Sep Apr May Jun Jul Aug Feb Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 8/10 to 7/11 8/11 to 7/12 8/12 to 7/13 8/10 to 7/11 37,754 38,838 39,176 38,876 37,159 36,299 34,991 32,485 29,785 23,477 17,816 19,941 8/11 to 7/12 22,864 19,467 19,781 22,773 18,378 17,581 13,268 11,310 10,196 9,785 9,946 10,482 8/12 to 7/13 11,118 12,300 13,704 14,252 17,256 17,939 13,386 16,946 12,370 12,117 12,368 13,427

21 In July, the number of active listings for sale INCREASED by 8.6% compared to the month of June a total of 13,427 residential homes were actively listed in Maricopa County as of 8/4/13. Sellers need to continue to watch this trend to see if this is a new trend that could mean more competition for getting a home sold. Using a real estate consultant is essential to determine how homes should be priced in order to be competitive AND the terms that will need to be available for prospective buyers in order to take advantage of this market. The current market means that buyers had far fewer homes to consider last month. Continue to monitor this statistic, as it WILL be the statistic that indicates how any options you will have in your home search and how quickly you will need to act the lower the number, the more likely the competitiveness for lower priced homes will remain part of the current market. As always, market activity is local and should be researched with your real estate professional to determine the activity and desirability of the homes that are of interest to you.

22 Months of Inventory Provided by Susan Kraemer Sta4s4cs from JULY 2013 MLS Months of inventory (36 month overview) Jan Dec 2.50 Sep Oct Nov Feb Mar Jul Aug Apr May Jun 1.00 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 8/10 to 7/ /11 to 7/ /12 to 7/ /10 to 7/11 8/11 to 7/12 8/12 to 7/13

23 The month of July followed the normal pattern over the past 36 months. We increased our months of inventory to 1.94 months, up from 1.7 months the prior month. Sellers need to understand the impact that the increasing interest rates may have on future buyers. The buying power diminishes as interest rates increase. This will be an important trend to watch over the next few months as we see what type of impact this increase has on sellers who have their homes on the market. Buyers will want to monitor this as well, as it indicates that inventory has increased slightly. We remain in a strong seller s market. A seller s market traditionally gives less control to buyers and can create significant competition for the current inventory. The current low inventory is resulting in homes selling more quickly, at a higher price, and with fewer concessions for buyers. However, the type of market will vary from price range to price range and even area to area. Work with your real estate professional to make sure you understand the type of market you are in.

24 Total Market Overview Provided by Susan Kraemer Sta4s4cs from JULY 2013 MLS Maricopa(Cty TOTAL(MARKET(OVERVIEW JULY (MONTH(OVERVIEW((Numbers(from(ARMLS) Price&range& 1,000s &#&of&active&listings& #&of&pendings&&&ucb Pending&Ratio &#&of&expired&&& Cancelled&listings& 1(month(averagesLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL (#(of(closings(last( month( &Average&List&Price&of& Sold&Homes& (Average(Sold(Price( List(to(Sales(Price( Ratio Days(on(Market( (Agent) 0&?&99,999 &&&&&&&&&&&&&& 1,303 &&&&&&&&&&&&&& 1, % &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 264 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 839 $&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 70,730 $&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 70, % ,000?& 124,999 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 596 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& % &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 86 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 495 $&&&&&&&&&&&&& 113,854 $&&&&&&&&&&& 113, % ,000?& 149,999 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 989 &&&&&&&&&&&&&& 1, % &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 150 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 843 $&&&&&&&&&&&&& 137,971 $&&&&&&&&&&& 138, % ,000?& 174,999 &&&&&&&&&&&&&& 1,013 &&&&&&&&&&&&&& 1, % &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 119 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 691 $&&&&&&&&&&&&& 162,041 $&&&&&&&&&&& 159, % ,000?& 199,999 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 953 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& % &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 111 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 701 $&&&&&&&&&&&&& 187,418 $&&&&&&&&&&& 184, % ,000?& 224,999 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 724 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& % &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 69 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 464 $&&&&&&&&&&&&& 212,933 $&&&&&&&&&&& 209, % ,000?& 249,999 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 914 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& % &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 111 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 522 $&&&&&&&&&&&&& 237,182 $&&&&&&&&&&& 232, % ,000?& 299,999 &&&&&&&&&&&&&& 1,348 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& % &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 162 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 707 $&&&&&&&&&&&&& 275,399 $&&&&&&&&&&& 270, % ,000?& 349,999 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 957 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& % &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 94 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 481 $&&&&&&&&&&&&& 326,909 $&&&&&&&&&&& 320, % ,000?& 399,999 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 880 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& % &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 87 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 357 $&&&&&&&&&&&&& 377,006 $&&&&&&&&&&& 368, % ,000?& 449,999 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 557 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& % &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 71 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 193 $&&&&&&&&&&&&& 424,744 $&&&&&&&&&&& 414, % ,000?& 499,999 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 464 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& % &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 69 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 148 $&&&&&&&&&&&&& 476,469 $&&&&&&&&&&& 462, % Days(on(Market( (Cumul) 500,000?& 749,999 &&&&&&&&&&&&&& 1,174 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& % &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 118 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 272 $&&&&&&&&&&&&& 607,038 $&&&&&&&&&&& 587, % ,000?& 999,999 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 599 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& % &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 62 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 92 $&&&&&&&&&&&&& 853,436 $&&&&&&&&&&& 826, % &million&+ &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 956 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& % &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 113 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 99 $&&&&&&&&&& 1,714,635 $&&&&&&&& 1,580, % Prepared&by&Susan&Kraemer& &ARMLS&#s

25 This report provides a detailed breakdown of homes in Maricopa County based on price by determining the price range where your home SHOULD sell, you can see what the average list to sales price ratio is, the average days on market, and more importantly, the percentage of homes selling in that price range. Note that as the price increases, so does the days on market AND the list to sales price ratio decreases. You will also see a lower percentage of homes selling as the price increases. By reviewing the price range where you are purchasing, you can determine what the average home is selling for vs. list price. This should help you make better and more acceptable offers based on the current market.

26 Summary Comments Provided by Susan Kraemer Sta4s4cs from JULY 2013 MLS Although these reports are beneficial in understanding the general market in Maricopa County, it is essential that you meet with your real estate professional to study these same figures in your area, as statistics will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood. As you make decisions related to the purchase or sale of a home, it is important that you understand how the current real estate trends will impact your decisions. Your real estate professional is available to help you monitor and interpret them to make sure that you are taking advantage of the current market whether you are selling OR buying.

27 Provided by Susan Kraemer of Prudential Arizona Properties Statistics from JULY 2013 MLS To ensure that you receive these market updates on a regular basis, please contact your real estate professional or contact Susan Kraemer at (623)