STATPAK MARKET IN A MINUTE A SUMMARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS FOR OCTOBER McEnearney.com CONTRACTS URGENCY INDEX INVENTORY INTEREST RATES

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1 STATPAK LOUDOUN COUNTY NOVEMBER 2018 McEnearney.com MARKET IN A MINUTE A SUMMARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS FOR OCTOBER 2018 Contract activity in October 2018 was down 7.6% from last October and was down in three of the six price categories. Through the first ten months of the year, contract activity is down 1.6%. The average number of days on the market for homes receiving contracts was 47 days in October 2018, unchanged from October of last year. URGENCY INDEX The Urgency Index, simply the percentage of homes going under contract that were on the market 30 days or less, was almost unchanged October compared to the year prior. During the past 14 years, the Index has been as high as 92% (April 2005) and as low as 14% (August 2006). In October 2018, the Index was 56.6%, down slightly from 57.0% in October INVENTORY The number of homes on the market at the end of October was down 17.1% compared to the end of October 2017 and was down in all six price categories. The number of new listings coming on the market decreased 13.6% compared to October The drop in inventory more than offset the decreased contract activity, lowering overall supply to 2.2 months from 2.4 months last October. INTEREST RATES After several months of relative stability, 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates were up about 0.1% at the end of October compared to just one month before, and they are 0.9% higher than this time last year. We still believe rates will stay below 5% barely through the balance of the year and will bump up another half point from there by mid AFFORDABILITY The payment on a no-money-down, 30-year fixed mortgage for a median-priced home is 30% higher today than it was a decade ago in October 2008 but the median price is 51% higher. It is also 16.6% higher than this time last year as a result of rising interest rates and home prices. The payment for a median priced home ($2,518) in October was higher than the median rented price ($2,275). DIRECTION OF THE MARKET Loudoun County s real estate market remains healthy, and as we have noted before in this space, we re seeing a transition to a more balanced market. While Loudoun didn t get Amazon as the landing spot for half of their HQ2 and the 25,000 jobs that come with it the entire region nonetheless received an immediate psychological boost. The actual improvements will be years in the making, but there is no doubt that Amazon s impact will be consequential. If you d like to read more about our thoughts on Amazon visit our blog, The Keystone: move-northern-virginia/. Unless otherwise noted, data derived from Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc. (MRIS ). Northern Virginia is defined as Arlington and Fairfax counties and the cities of Alexandria, Falls Church & Fairfax. Copyright 2018 McEnearney Associates Loudoun County StatPak - Page 1

2 MONTHLY SUMMARY OCTOBER 2017 vs. OCTOBER 2018 October October % LOUDOUN COUNTY Change Number of Sales % Fully Available Inventory on 10/31 1,325 1, % Number of New Listings % Number of New Contracts % Days on Market - New Contracts % Average Sales Price $513,069 $514, % Average Seller Subsidy $3,658 $3, % Urgency Index 57.0% 56.6% -0.7% Months' Supply % NORTHERN VIRGINIA Change Number of Sales 1,707 1, % Fully Available Inventory on 10/31 4,037 3, % Number of New Listings 2,037 2, % Number of New Contracts 1,755 1, % Days on Market - New Contracts % Average Sales Price $563,439 $570, % Average Seller Subsidy $2,976 $3, % Urgency Index 51.3% 60.0% 17.0% Months' Supply % WASHINGTON, DC Number of Sales % Fully Available Inventory on 10/31 1,587 1, % Number of New Listings 1,135 1, % Number of New Contracts % Days on Market - New Contracts % Average Sales Price $659,337 $707, % Average Seller Subsidy $2,367 $1, % Urgency Index 68.2% 67.6% -0.9% Months' Supply % MONTGOMERY COUNTY Number of Sales 1, % Fully Available Inventory on 10/31 2,549 2, % Number of New Listings 1,266 1, % Number of New Contracts 1,115 1, % Days on Market - New Contracts % Average Sales Price $489,532 $509, % Average Seller Subsidy $3,802 $3, % Urgency Index 54.2% 56.7% 4.6% Months' Supply % PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTY Number of Sales % Fully Available Inventory on 10/31 1,973 2, % Number of New Listings 1,224 1, % Number of New Contracts 1,123 1, % Days on Market - New Contracts % Average Sales Price $292,707 $297, % Average Seller Subsidy $5,500 $5, % Urgency Index 58.8% 48.5% -17.5% Months' Supply % * Note: Percentages depicted in red indicate a negative market trend; black indicates a positive market trend Copyright 2018 McEnearney Associates Loudoun County StatPak - Page 2

3 YEAR-TO-DATE SUMMARY 2017 vs Year-to-Date Jan-Oct Jan-Oct % LOUDOUN COUNTY Change Number of Closed Sales 5,814 5, % Average Month-End Available Inventory 1,335 1, % Number of New Listings 8,361 8, % Number of New Contracts 6,242 6, % Days on Market - New Contracts % Average Sales Price $502,593 $519, % Average Seller Subsidy $3,245 $2, % Average Urgency Index 67.6% 71.0% 5.1% Average Months' Supply % NORTHERN VIRGINIA Number of Closed Sales 19,152 18, % Average Month-End Available Inventory 3,949 3, % Number of New Listings 27,340 26, % Number of New Contracts 20,633 20, % Days on Market - New Contracts % Average Sales Price $576,178 $587, % Average Seller Subsidy $2,761 $2, % Average Urgency Index 65.3% 69.6% 6.6% Average Months' Supply % WASHINGTON, DC Number of Closed Sales 7,715 7, % Average Month-End Available Inventory 1,330 1, % Number of New Listings 10,915 11, % Number of New Contracts 8,471 8, % Days on Market - New Contracts % Average Sales Price $676,232 $692, % Average Seller Subsidy $2,269 $2, % Average Urgency Index 69.2% 69.1% -0.1% Average Months' Supply % MONTGOMERY COUNTY Number of Closed Sales 10,793 10, % Average Month-End Available Inventory 2,400 2, % Number of New Listings 15,251 15, % Number of New Contracts 11,893 11, % Days on Market - New Contracts % Average Sales Price $521,646 $541, % Average Seller Subsidy $3,427 $3, % Average Urgency Index 62.1% 65.5% 5.5% Average Months' Supply % PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTY Number of Closed Sales 9,252 9, % Average Month-End Available Inventory 1,801 1, % Number of New Listings 12,418 12, % Number of New Contracts 9,951 11, % Days on Market - New Contracts % Average Sales Price $285,774 $296, % Average Seller Subsidy $5,428 $5, % Average Urgency Index 62.2% 60.4% -2.8% Average Months' Supply % * Note: Percentages depicted in red indicate a negative market trend; black indicates a positive market trend Copyright 2018 McEnearney Associates Loudoun County StatPak - Page 3

4 LOUDOUN COUNTY Detail Pages Interest Rate YEAR FIXED AND 1-YEAR ADJUSTABLE RATES Month-End Mortgage Rates 2011-Current 1-Year ARM 30-Year Fixed MORTGAGE RATES 30-year fixed interest rates at the end of October averaged 4.83%, compared to 3.94% at the end of October One-year adjustable rate mortgages were 4.04% at the end of October 2018, which is up from 3.23% at the end of October BUYING POWER Mortgage Amount with $1,000 Payment BUYING POWER A $1,000 principal and interest payment supported a loan of $189,941 at the end of October, which is $21,046 less than October 2018 but $27,494 more than October In October 2008, it would have taken a monthly PI payment of $1,990 to purchase a medianpriced home, and its $2,553 now. That s a 28% increase but the median price is up 53% in that 10-year period. AVERAGE SALES PRICE Loudoun County 2010-Current AVERAGE PRICES The average sales price in October 2018 was $514,551, which was a 0.3% increase from the October 2017 average price of $513,069. The median sales price increased 5.4%. Remember that these indicators are arithmetic computations based on all properties sold and do not indicate the appreciation or depreciation of any individual property. Copyright 2018 McEnearney Associates Loudoun County StatPak - Page 4

5 % of Contracts on the Market for 30 Days or Less 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Jan 14 Mar 14 May 14 URGENCY INDEX % of Contracts on the Market for 30 Days or Less Loudoun County 2014-Current % of Contracts # Contracts Jul 14 Sep 14 Nov 14 Jan 15 Mar 15 May 15 Jul 15 Sep 15 Nov 15 Jan 16 Mar 16 May 16 Jul 16 Sep 16 Nov 16 Jan 17 Mar 17 May 17 Jul 17 Sep 17 Nov 17 Jan 18 Mar 18 May 18 Jul 18 Sep Number of Contracts URGENCY INDEX 2014-Current This chart compares the number of contracts (green line) to the percent that were on the market 30 days or less (blue bars). At first glance, it might appear that the lower contract activity also means a lower percentage of homes that sell quickly but that s not always true. As an example, December is always the month with the lowest number of contracts. December 2011 (not on this chart) had a 45% index, but that jumped to 52% in 2012, an early indicator that the market was picking up heading into URGENCY INDEX Loudoun County October URGENCY INDEX - October During the past 12 years, the October Urgency Index has been as high as 66.7% and as low as 20.7%. The average October Urgency Index during the past 12 years is 47.6% which is significantly lower than where we are today. Contract activity is down 7.6% from last October and the Urgency Index decreased from 57.0% to 56.6%. URGENCY INDEX DC Metro Area by Jurisdiction Comparison October 2018 URGENCY INDEX DC Metro Area The average October Urgency Index during the past 12 years for all five of the jurisdictions we track is 50.0% considerably lower than where we are today which is 57.7%. Loudoun County is in fourth place this month. As noted above, it is significantly higher than its 12-year average. Copyright 2018 McEnearney Associates Loudoun County StatPak - Page 5

6 NEW CONTRACT ACTIVITY Loudoun County October 2017 vs. October 2018 by Price Range $1,500,000 and higher $1,000,000 - $1,499,999 $750,000 - $999,999 $500,000 - $749,999 $300,000 - $499, October 2018 October NEW CONTRACT ACTIVITY As noted on page 2, the number of new contracts ratified in October 2018 was down 7.6% from the number of contracts ratified in October Three price categories had decreases in contract activity. As noted on page 3, contract activity year-to-date is down 1.6%. 43.4% of all homes going under contract in October 2018 had at least one price reduction before going under contract. $0 - $299, # of New Contracts FULLY AVAILABLE Loudoun County October 31, 2017 vs. October 31, 2018 FULLY AVAILABLE As noted on page 2, the available inventory for October 2018 was down 17.1% from October There were decreases for all price categories. 38.5% of all homes on the market have had at least one price reduction since coming on the market. In October 2017, 35.7% of all homes on the market had at least one price reduction. MONTHS SUPPLY Loudoun County End of October 2017 vs. End of October 2018 MONTHS SUPPLY The overall supply of homes on the market at the end of October was 2.2 months, down from 2.4 months as at the end of October Supply decreased for four price categories. Copyright 2018 McEnearney Associates Loudoun County StatPak - Page 6

7 AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS ON MARKET Loudoun County October 2017 vs. October 2018 New Contracts $1,500,000 and higher $1,000,000 - $1,499,999 $750,000 - $999,999 $500,000 - $749,999 No contracts, therefore unable to calculate Days on Market AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS ON THE MARKET NEW The average number of days on the market for all homes receiving contracts in October 2018 was 47 days, which remained the same as October $300,000 - $499,999 $0 - $299, October 2018 October # of Days on Market NUMBER OF NEW, NEW, AND ACTIVE Loudoun County January 2012-Current NUMBER OF NEW, AND ACTIVE There were 589 new listings that came on the market in October 2018, a decrease of 13.6% from the 682 in October The lines representing active listings (green), new listings (blue) and new contracts (red) were tightly grouped much of 2013, but the consistent gap that opened since then has started to narrow. RELATIONSHIP OF SALES PRICE TO ORIGINAL LIST PRICE vs. DAYS ON MARKET Resale Properties Sold in Loudoun County October 2017 vs. October 2018 RELATIONSHIP OF SALES PRICE TO ORIGINAL LIST PRICE vs. DAYS ON MARKET Initial pricing strategy is critical to the listing process, regardless of market conditions. The longer a home sits on the market, the deeper the discount to its original list price will likely be. Homes settling in October 2018 that received contracts their first week on the market sold, on average, 0.14% below list. Those that took more than 120 days to sell sold 7.39% below the original price. SOME DEFINITIONS AND EXPLANATIONS TO AID YOUR UNDERSTANDING OF THE DATA The data shown here are collected, in whole or in part, from the Metropolitan Regional Information System, Inc, and are believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed Sales are transactions that settled during the statistical period; Under Contracts are contracts negotiated during the statistical period, but not yet settled Available Listings reflects single-family homes, town homes, new homes and condos on the market at the end of the period in question. Months Supply is simply the number of Fully Available Listings on the market at the end of the month divided by the number of Contracts ratified that month. Copyright 2018 McEnearney Associates Loudoun County StatPak - Page 7

8 Analysis by Property Type Condo/Co-op CONDO/CO-OP Condo/Co-op Total Active Listings % Change % Change $299,999 and under % % $300,000 - $499, % % $500,000 - $749, % % $750,000 - $999, $1,000,000 - $1,499, Grand Total: % % The number of new listings for condos and co-ops coming on the market in October 2018 decreased 3.8% compared to October The fully available inventory of condos as of October 31, 2018 decreased 8.8% compared to As the numbers indicate, condos do not represent a significant slice of the Loudoun market. CONDO/CO-OP Condo/Co-op Contracts % Change % Change $299,999 and under % % $300,000 - $499, % % $500,000 - $749, % % $750,000 - $999, % % $1,000,000 - $1,499, Grand Total: % % The number of condos and co-ops receiving ratified contracts increased 2.2% in October 2018 compared to October In Loudoun County, 43.6% of the condo market is for homes priced less than $300,000. Year-to-date, the number of contracts is up 6.1%. SETTLEMENTS Condo/Co-op Settlements % Change % Change $299,999 and under % % $300,000 - $499, % % $500,000 - $749, % % $750,000 - $999, % $1,000,000 - $1,499, Grand Total: % % CONDO/CO-OP SETTLEMENTS AND AVERAGE PRICE The number of condos and co-ops settling in October 2018 decreased 2.4% compared to October Year-to-date, the number of settlements is up 8.8%. The average price was up 1.5% compared to October Year-to-date, the average price is up 6.5%. Average Sales Price: Oct 2017 Oct 2018 % Change YTD 2017 YTD 2018 % Change Condo/Co-op $304,965 $309, % $292,664 $311, % Copyright 2018 McEnearney Associates Loudoun County StatPak - Page 8

9 Analysis by Property Type Fee Simple Attached Fee Simple Attached Total Active Listings % Change % Change $299,999 and under % % $300,000 - $499, % % $500,000 - $749, % % $750,000 - $999, % % $1,000,000 - $1,499, % % Grand Total: % % ATTACHED HOMES The number of new listings coming on the market in October 2018 for fee simple attached homes decreased 4.6% compared to October The fully active inventory at the end of October is down 7.8% compared to the available inventory at the end of October Fee Simple Attached Contracts % Change % Change $299,999 and under % % $300,000 - $499, % % $500,000 - $749, % % $750,000 - $999, % % $1,000,000 - $1,499, % % Grand Total: % % ATTACHED HOMES Contract activity for attached homes increased 1.1% in October 2018 compared to October Year-to-date, contract activity is up 1.1% compared to SETTLEMENTS Fee Simple Attached Settlements % Change % Change $299,999 and under % % $300,000 - $499, % % $500,000 - $749, % % $750,000 - $999, % % $1,000,000 - $1,499, Grand Total: % % ATTACHED HOMES SETTLEMENTS AND AVERAGE PRICE The number of settlements increased 5.0% in October 2018 compared to October Yearto-date, the number of settlements increased just 0.6%. The average sales price was up 6.5% in October 2018 compared to October The average sales price year-to date is up 5.6%. Average Sales Price: Oct 2017 Oct 2018 % Change YTD 2017 YTD 2018 % Change Fee Simple Attached $430,840 $458, % $424,359 $448, % Copyright 2018 McEnearney Associates Loudoun County StatPak - Page 9

10 Analysis by Property Type Fee Simple Detached Fee Simple Detached Total Active Listings % Change % Change $299,999 and under % % $300,000 - $499, % % $500,000 - $749, % % $750,000 - $999, % % $1,000,000 - $1,499, % % $1,500,000 & higher % % Grand Total: % % DETACHED HOMES The number of new listings for fee simple detached homes was down 22.2% in October 2018 compared to October The number of detached homes on the market on October 31, 2018 was down 21.0% compared to October 31, Fee Simple Detached Contracts % Change % Change $299,999 and under % % $300,000 - $499, % % $500,000 - $749, % % $750,000 - $999, % % $1,000,000 - $1,499, % % $1,500,000 & higher % Grand Total: % % DETACHED HOMES The number of contracts for detached homes in October 2018 decreased 16.5% compared to October The number of contracts yearto-date is down 5.9%. SETTLEMENTS Fee Simple Detached Settlements % Change % Change $299,999 and under % % $300,000 - $499, % % $500,000 - $749, % % $750,000 - $999, % % $1,000,000 - $1,499, % % $1,500,000 & higher % % Grand Total: % % DETACHED HOMES SETTLEMENTS AND AVERAGE PRICE The number of settlements in October decreased 16.4% from October Year-to-date, there has been a decrease of 5.8%. The average sales price for detached homes decreased just 0.7% in October 2018 compared to October Year-to-date, the average sales price is up 3.9%. Average Sales Price: Oct 2017 Oct 2018 % Change YTD 2017 YTD 2018 % Change Fee Simple Detached $639,418 $635, % $623,880 $648, % Copyright 2018 McEnearney Associates Loudoun County StatPak - Page 10

11 Absorption Rate by Property Type The following tables track absorption rate by property type, comparing the rates in the just-completed month to the rates in the same month of the previous year. The absorption rate is a measure of the health of the market, and tracks the percentage of homes that were on the market during the given month and in the given price range that went under contract. [The formula is # Contracts/ (# Contracts + # Available).] An example: The absorption rate for detached homes priced between $500,000 and $749,999 in October 2018 was 28.4%. That compares to a rate of 27.4% in October 2017, and the increase means the market was better in 2018 for that type of home. If the absorption rate was less in 2018 than in 2017, we have put the 2018 rate in red. This month there was improvement for 8 of 14 individual price categories with activity. Condo/Co-op October 2017 October 2018 Absorption Rates Listings Contracts Rate Listings Contracts Rate $299,999 and under % % $300,000 - $499, % % $500,000 - $749, % % $750,000 - $999, % $1,000,000 - $1,499, Grand Total: % % ABSORPTION RATES CONDOS AND COOPS The overall absorption rate for condos and co-ops for October 2018 was 42.9%, up from 40.2% in October Safe to say the market for condos priced more than $500,000 is very limited. Fee Simple Attached October 2017 October 2018 Absorption Rates Listings Contracts Rate Listings Contracts Rate $299,999 and under % % $300,000 - $499, % % $500,000 - $749, % % $750,000 - $999, % % $1,000,000 - $1,499, % Grand Total: % % ABSORPTION RATES ATTACHED HOMES The overall absorption rate for attached homes for October 2018 was 42.2%, up from October 2017 s 40.0%. Fee Simple Detached October 2017 October 2018 Absorption Rates Listings Contracts Rate Listings Contracts Rate $299,999 and under % % $300,000 - $499, % % $500,000 - $749, % % $750,000 - $999, % % $1,000,000 - $1,499, % % $1,500,000 & higher % % Grand Total: % % ABSORPTION RATES DETACHED HOMES October 2018 s absorption rate for detached homes was 24.3%, an increase from the 23.3% rate from October And as we have seen in the other property types, the absorption rates are higher for the lowerpriced categories. Copyright 2018 McEnearney Associates Loudoun County StatPak - Page 11