NORTHERN VIRGINIA MARCH 2017

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1 STATPAK NORTHERN VIRGINIA MARCH 2017 McEnearney.com MARKET IN A MINUTE A SUMMARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS FOR FEBRUARY 2017 Contract activity in February 2017 was up 4.0% from February 2016, and there were increases in four of the six price categories. The average number of days on the market for homes receiving contracts was 48 days in February 2017, down significantly from 67 days in February of last year. URGENCY INDEX The Urgency Index, simply the percentage of homes going under contract that were on the market 30 days or less, was up in February compared to last February. During the past 12 years, the Index has been as high as 95% (April 2004) and as low as 25% (November 2007), and the average for February is 53.2%. In February 2017, the Urgency Index was 68.6%, up significantly from 54.4% in February INVENTORY The number of homes on the market at the end of February was down 12.2% compared to the end of February 2016, but it was up in the three highest price categories. In fact, the inventory of homes priced less than $500,000 is down almost 30%. However, there was a 5.8% increase in the number of new listings coming on the market compared to February The increase in contract activity combined with the decrease in available inventory dropped overall supply to 1.7 months, down from 2.0 months at the end of February INTEREST RATES The rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage ended February at 4.10%. That s slightly lower than the 4.19% rate at the end of January, but is a half point higher than it was this time last year. Rates have edged a bit higher as we have moved into March, and the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate for the second time in three months. While that does not have a direct impact on mortgage rates, the Fed s move is certainly a sign of its confidence in the economy and we can expect mortgage rates to rise modestly through the year. AFFORDABILITY The payment on a no-money-down, 30-year fixed mortgage for a median-priced home is 17.7% lower today than it was a decade ago in February 2007, but is 9.0% higher than February of last year, thanks to the increase in interest rates. The mortgage payment for a median priced home ($2,255) was higher in February than the median rented price ($2,150). DIRECTION OF THE MARKET Virtually every key indicator is positive for the Northern Virginia real estate market, mirroring the metro DC region as a whole. The spike in interest rates has brought buyers into the market out of concern that rising rates may price them out of the market if they don t act, and an extremely mild winter has helped as well. The number of contracts is up, homes are selling in less time, and inventory is very low. Absorption rates above 30% are indicative of a seller s market, and rates are higher than that for every property type condo, attached and detached homes in almost every price range under $1,000,000. It s a good time to be a seller and perhaps a frustrating time for buyers who are faced with fewer choices and more competition for that limited inventory. Unless otherwise noted, data derived from Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc. (MRIS ). Northern Virginia is defined as Arlington and Fairfax counties and the cities of Alexandria, Falls Church & Fairfax. Copyright 2017 McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 1

2 MONTHLY SUMMARY FEBRUARY 2016 vs. FEBRUARY 2017 February February % NORTHERN VIRGINIA Change Number of Sales 1,117 1, % Fully Available Inventory on 2/28 or 2/29 3,400 2, % Number of New Listings 2,186 2, % Number of New Contracts 1,720 1, % Days on Market - New Contracts % Average Sales Price $537,757 $542, % Average Seller Subsidy $3,631 $2, % Urgency Index 54.4% 68.6% 26.1% Months' Supply % LOUDOUN COUNTY Number of Sales % Fully Available Inventory on 2/28 or 2/29 1,392 1, % Number of New Listings % Number of New Contracts % Days on Market - New Contracts % Average Sales Price $448,685 $460, % Average Seller Subsidy $4,149 $3, % Urgency Index 49.9% 71.7% 43.7% Months' Supply % WASHINGTON, DC Number of Sales % Fully Available Inventory on 2/28 or 2/29 1,078 1, % Number of New Listings % Number of New Contracts % Days on Market - New Contracts % Average Sales Price $621,792 $685, % Average Seller Subsidy $2,963 $2, % Urgency Index 61.5% 66.2% 7.6% Months' Supply % MONTGOMERY COUNTY Number of Sales % Fully Available Inventory on 2/28 or 2/29 2,088 1, % Number of New Listings 1,154 1, % Number of New Contracts 1,035 1, % Days on Market - New Contracts % Average Sales Price $494,458 $516, % Average Seller Subsidy $3,705 $4, % Urgency Index 46.4% 59.1% 27.4% Months' Supply % * Note: Percentages depicted in red indicate a negative market trend; black indicates a positive market trend Copyright 2017 McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 2

3 YEAR-TO-DATE SUMMARY 2016 vs Year-to-Date Jan-Feb Jan-Feb % NORTHERN VIRGINIA Change Number of Closed Sales 2,143 2, % Average Month-End Available Inventory 3,333 2, % Number of New Listings 3,722 4, % Number of New Contracts 2,982 3, % Days on Market - New Contracts % Average Sales Price $535,906 $545, % Average Seller Subsidy $3,587 $3, % Average Urgency Index 46.0% 59.4% 29.1% Average Months' Supply % LOUDOUN COUNTY Number of Closed Sales % Average Month-End Available Inventory 1,372 1, % Number of New Listings 1,244 1, % Number of New Contracts % Days on Market - New Contracts % Average Sales Price $465,412 $472, % Average Seller Subsidy $4,219 $3, % Average Urgency Index 44.8% 64.6% 44.4% Average Months' Supply % WASHINGTON, DC Number of Closed Sales 932 1, % Average Month-End Available Inventory 1,086 1, % Number of New Listings 1,554 1, % Number of New Contracts 1,232 1, % Days on Market - New Contracts % Average Sales Price $610,300 $677, % Average Seller Subsidy $3,045 $2, % Average Urgency Index 59.3% 62.2% 4.9% Average Months' Supply % MONTGOMERY COUNTY Number of Closed Sales 1,326 1, % Average Month-End Available Inventory 2,101 1, % Number of New Listings 2,027 2, % Number of New Contracts 1,791 1, % Days on Market - New Contracts % Average Sales Price $473,356 $498, % Average Seller Subsidy $3,695 $3, % Average Urgency Index 42.2% 53.8% 27.3% Average Months' Supply % * Note: Percentages depicted in red indicate a negative market trend; black indicates a positive market trend Copyright 2017 McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 3

4 NORTHERN VIRGINIA Detail Pages (Fairfax & Arlington Counties, Alexandria, Falls Church and Fairfax Cities) Interest Rate YEAR FIXED AND 1-YEAR ADJUSTABLE RATES Month-End Mortgage Rates 2010-Current 1-Year ARM 30-Year Fixed MORTGAGE RATES 30-year fixed interest rates at the end of February averaged 4.10%, compared to 3.62% at the end of February One-year adjustable rate mortgages were 3.14% at the end of February 2017, which is up from 2.79% at the end of February BUYING POWER Mortgage Amount with $1,000 Payment BUYING POWER A $1,000 principal and interest payment supported a loan of $206,954 at the end of February, which is $12,455 less than February 2016 but $44,507 more than February In February 2007, it would have taken a monthly PI payment of $2,741 to purchase a medianpriced home. Today s lower rates have had a dramatic impact now it takes a payment of $2,255 to buy a median-priced home. That s a 17.7% decrease. AVERAGE SALES PRICE Northern Virginia 2009-Current AVERAGE PRICES The average sales price in February 2017 was $542,929, up 1.0% from the February 2016 average price of $537,757. The median sales price was $465,000 in February 2017, down 3.0% from the median price in February Remember that these indicators are arithmetic computations based on all properties sold and do not indicate the appreciation or depreciation of any individual property. Copyright 2017 McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 4

5 % of Contracts on the Market 30 Days or Less 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Jan 13 Mar 13 URGENCY INDEX % of Contracts on the Market for 30 Days or Less Northern Virginia 2013-Current % of Contracts # Contracts May 13 Jul 13 Sep 13 Nov 13 Jan 14 Mar 14 May 14 Jul 14 Sep 14 Nov 14 Jan 15 Mar 15 May 15 Jul 15 Sep 15 Nov 15 Jan 16 Mar 16 May 16 Jul 16 Sep 16 Nov 16 Jan 17 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Number of Contracts URGENCY INDEX 2013-Current This chart compares the number of contracts (green line) to the percent that were on the market 30 days or less (blue bars). At first glance, it might appear that the lower contract activity also means a lower percentage of homes that sell quickly but that s not always true. As an example, December is always the month with the lowest number of contracts. December 2011 (not on this chart) had a 35% index, but that jumped to 50% in 2012, an early indicator that the market was picking up heading into URGENCY INDEX Northern Virginia February URGENCY INDEX - February During the past 12 years, the Urgency Index has been as high as 71.7% and as low as 30.4%. The average February Urgency Index in Northern Virginia during the past 12 years is 53.2% which is lower than where we are today. The number of new contracts was up 4.0% for February 2017 compared to 2016 and the Urgency Index increased significantly from 68.6% to 54.4%. URGENCY INDEX DC Metro Area by Jurisdiction Comparison - February 2017 URGENCY INDEX DC Metro Area The average February Urgency Index during the past 12 years for all four of the jurisdictions we track is 50.4%. Northern Virginia is in second place this month between Loudoun County in first and DC in third. As noted above, it is higher than its 12-year average. Copyright 2017 McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 5

6 NEW CONTRACT ACTIVITY Northern Virginia February 2016 vs. February 2017 by Price Range $1,500,000 and higher $1,000,000 - $1,499,999 $750,000 - $999,999 $500,000 - $749,999 $300,000 - $499, February 2017 February NEW CONTRACT ACTIVITY The number of new contracts ratified in February 2017 was up 4.0% from the number of contracts ratified in February 2016, and was up for three price categories. As noted on page 3, contract activity year-to-date is up 8.6%. 19.3% of all homes going under contract in February 2017 had at least one price reduction before going under contract. Last February it was 27.1%. $0 - $299, # of New Contracts FULLY AVAILABLE LISTINGS Northern Virginia February 29, 2016 vs. February 28, 2017 FULLY AVAILABLE LISTINGS As noted on page 2, the monthend inventory decreased 12.2% February 2017 compared to February 2016 but the number of homes coming on the market increased 5.8%. Inventory is down for homes priced less than $750, % of all homes on the market have had at least one price reduction since coming on the market. In February 2016, 33.0% of all homes on the market had at least one price reduction. MONTHS SUPPLY Northern Virginia End of February 2016 vs. End of February 2017 MONTHS SUPPLY The overall supply of homes on the market at the end of February was 1.7 months, which was a decrease of 15.6% compared to the end of February 2016, when supply stood at 2.0 months. Price category supply ranges from a low of 0.9 months for homes priced between $300,000 and $499,999 and a high of 9.5 months for homes priced $1,500,000 and higher. Copyright 2017 McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 6

7 AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS ON MARKET Northern Virginia February 2016 vs. February 2017 New Contracts $1,500,000 and higher $1,000,000 - $1,499,999 $750,000 - $999,999 $500,000 - $749,999 $300,000 - $499,999 $0 - $299, February 2017 February 2016 AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS ON THE MARKET NEW The average number of days on the market for homes receiving contracts in February was down for all price categories. Overall, the average number of days on the market for homes receiving contracts in February 2017 was 48, down 28.4% from 67 days in February NUMBER OF NEW LISTINGS AND ; ACTIVE LISTINGS Northern Virginia January 2011-Current NUMBER OF NEW LISTINGS, AND ACTIVE LISTINGS There were 2,312 new listings that came on the market in February 2017, up 5.8% from the 2,186 in February The lines representing active listings (green), new listings (blue) and new contracts (red) are nowhere near as tightly grouped as they were almost all of 2013 and the first few months of Relationship of Sales Price to Original List Price 102% 100% RELATIONSHIP OF SALES PRICE TO ORIGINAL LIST PRICE vs. DAYS ON MARKET Resale Properties Sold in Northern Virginia Feb vs. Feb % 96% 94% 92% 90% 100.0% 99.8% 91.5% 91.3% Days on Market February 2016 February 2017 RELATIONSHIP OF SALES PRICE TO ORIGINAL PRICE vs. DAYS ON MARKET As we have noted in this space for years, initial pricing strategy is critical to sellers success. Homes settling in February 2017 that received contracts their first week on the market sold, on average, at original list price. Those that took 4 months or longer to sell sold for 8.7% below original list price. SOME DEFINITIONS AND EXPLANATIONS TO AID YOUR UNDERSTANDING OF THE DATA All data describing Northern Virginia include the counties of Arlington and Fairfax, the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church, and the towns of Vienna, Herndon & Clifton The data shown here are collected, in whole or in part, from the Metropolitan Regional Information System, Inc, and are believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed Sales are transactions that settled during the statistical period; Under Contracts are contracts negotiated during the statistical period, but not yet settled Available Listings reflects single-family homes, town homes, new homes and condos on the market at the end of the period in question. Months Supply is simply the number of Fully Available Listings on the market at the end of the month divided by the number of Contracts ratified that month. Copyright 2017 McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 7

8 Analysis by Property Type Condo/Co-op LISTINGS CONDO/CO-OP LISTINGS Condo/Co-op New This Month Total Active Listings % Change % Change $299,999 and under % % $300,000 - $499, % % $500,000 - $749, % % $750,000 - $999, % % $1,000,000 - $1,499, % % $1,500,000 & higher % % Grand Total: % % The number of new listings for condos and co-ops coming on the market was up 1.2% compared to February The fully available inventory of condos as of February 28, 2017 is 18.4% less than the same time in CONDO/CO-OP Condo/Co-op New This Month Contracts % Change % Change $299,999 and under % % $300,000 - $499, % % $500,000 - $749, % % $750,000 - $999, % % $1,000,000 - $1,499, % % $1,500,000 & higher % Grand Total: % % The number of condos and co-ops receiving ratified contracts increased 6.8% in February 2017 compared to February Year-to-date, contract activity is up 15.2% compared to SETTLEMENTS Condo/Co-op New This Month Settlements % Change % Change $299,999 and under % % $300,000 - $499, % % $500,000 - $749, % % $750,000 - $999, % % $1,000,000 - $1,499, % % $1,500,000 & higher % % Grand Total: % % CONDO/CO-OP SETTLEMENTS AND AVERAGE PRICE The number of condos and co-ops settling in February 2017 increased 21.5% compared to February Year-to-date, the number of settlements is up 19.4%. The average price was down just 0.7% compared to February Year-to-date, the average price is up just 0.1%. Average Sales Price: Feb 2016 Feb 2017 % Change YTD 2016 YTD 2017 % Change Condo/Co-op $327,412 $325, % $326,428 $326, % Copyright 2017 McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 8

9 Analysis by Property Type Fee Simple Attached LISTINGS ATTACHED HOMES LISTINGS Fee Simple Attached New This Month Total Active Listings % Change % Change $299,999 and under % % $300,000 - $499, % % $500,000 - $749, % % $750,000 - $999, % % $1,000,000 - $1,499, % % $1,500,000 & higher % % Grand Total: % % The number of new listings coming on the market in February 2017 for fee simple attached homes increased 10.4% from February Fully active inventory at the end of February is down 23.8% compared to the available inventory at the end of February Fee Simple Attached New This Month Contracts % Change % Change $299,999 and under % % $300,000 - $499, % % $500,000 - $749, % % $750,000 - $999, % % $1,000,000 - $1,499, % % $1,500,000 & higher % % Grand Total: % % ATTACHED HOMES Contract activity for attached homes increased 3.6% in February 2017 compared to February Year-to-date, contract activity is up 4.2%. SETTLEMENTS Fee Simple Attached New This Month Settlements % Change % Change $299,999 and under % % $300,000 - $499, % % $500,000 - $749, % % $750,000 - $999, % % $1,000,000 - $1,499, % % $1,500,000 & higher % % Grand Total: % % ATTACHED HOMES SETTLEMENTS AND AVERAGE PRICE The number of settlements increased 2.4% in February 2017 compared to February Year-to-date, the number of settlements increased 2.8%. The average sales price increased 4.3% in February 2017 compared to February The average sales price year-todate is up 2.2%. Average Sales Price: Feb 2016 Feb 2017 % Change YTD 2016 YTD 2017 % Change Fee Simple Attached $479,471 $500, % $477,728 $488, % Copyright 2017 McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 9

10 Analysis by Property Type Fee Simple Detached LISTINGS Fee Simple Detached New This Month Total Active Listings % Change % Change $299,999 and under % $300,000 - $499, % % $500,000 - $749, % % $750,000 - $999, % % $1,000,000 - $1,499, % % $1,500,000 & higher % % Grand Total: % % DETACHED HOMES LISTINGS The number of new listings for fee simple detached homes was up 6.4% in February 2017 compared to February The number of detached homes on the market on February 28, 2017 was down 5.2% compared to February 29, Fee Simple Detached New This Month Contracts % Change % Change $299,999 and under % % $300,000 - $499, % % $500,000 - $749, % % $750,000 - $999, % % $1,000,000 - $1,499, % % $1,500,000 & higher % % Grand Total: % % DETACHED HOMES There was an increase of 2.4% in the number of contracts on detached homes in February 2017 compared to February There is very little inventory for would-be purchasers looking to buy for less than $300,000. Year-to-date, contract activity is up 6.9%. SETTLEMENTS Fee Simple Detached New This Month Settlements % Change % Change $299,999 and under % % $300,000 - $499, % % $500,000 - $749, % % $750,000 - $999, % % $1,000,000 - $1,499, % % $1,500,000 & higher % % Grand Total: % % DETACHED HOMES SETTLEMENTS AND AVERAGE PRICE The number of settlements in February was up 5.4% compared to last February. Year-to-date, the number of settlements has increased 7.1%. The average sales price for detached homes increased 2.4% in February 2017 compared to February The average sales price year-todate is up 4.2%. Average Sales Price: Feb 2016 Feb 2017 % Change YTD 2016 YTD 2017 % Change Fee Simple Detached $730,294 $748, % $721,174 $751, % Copyright 2017 McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 10

11 Absorption Rate by Property Type The following tables track absorption rate by property type, comparing the rates in the just-completed month to the rates in the same month of the previous year. The absorption rate is a measure of the health of the market, and tracks the percentage of homes that were on the market during the given month and in the given price range that went under contract. [The formula is # Contracts/(# Contracts + # Available).] An example: The absorption rate for detached homes priced $500,000-$749,999 in February 2017 was 47.1%. That compares to a rate of 42.4% in February 2016, and the increase means the market was better in 2017 for that type of home. If the absorption rate was less in 2017 than in 2016, we have put the 2017 rate in red. This month there was improvement for 13 of 18 individual price categories, and one remained the same. Condo/Co-op February 2016 February 2017 Absorption Rates Listings Contracts Rate Listings Contracts Rate $299,999 and under % % $300,000 - $499, % % $500,000 - $749, % % $750,000 - $999, % % $1,000,000 - $1,499, % % $1,500,000 & higher % % Grand Total: % % ABSORPTION RATES CONDOS AND CO-OPS The overall absorption rate for condos and co-ops for February 2017 was 37.5%, an increase from the 31.4% rate in February Fee Simple Attached February 2016 February 2017 Absorption Rates Listings Contracts Rate Listings Contracts Rate $299,999 and under % % $300,000 - $499, % % $500,000 - $749, % % $750,000 - $999, % % $1,000,000 - $1,499, % % $1,500,000 & higher % % Grand Total: % % ABSORPTION RATES ATTACHED HOMES The overall absorption rate for attached homes in February 2017 was 54.9%, a significant increase from the 47.2% rate in February Fee Simple Detached February 2016 February 2017 Absorption Rates Listings Contracts Rate Listings Contracts Rate $299,999 and under % % $300,000 - $499, % % $500,000 - $749, % % $750,000 - $999, % % $1,000,000 - $1,499, % % $1,500,000 & higher % % Grand Total: % % ABSORPTION RATES DETACHED HOMES February 2017 s absorption rate for detached homes was 31.7%, an increase from the 30.0% rate in February There were three homes priced less than $300K on the market at the end of the month. Copyright 2017 McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 11