2Q 2011 Quarterly Metro Market Profile Single Family Detached Residences (2Q ONLY)

Transcription

1 2Q 2011 Quarterly Metro Market Profile Single Family Detached Residences (2Q ONLY) Sales by price range and New vs. Resale properties Sales were lower in all New Home price ranges during 2Q 2011, dropping by -31% overall Overall sales were higher in Resale properties with meaningful increases in all but 3 price ranges Buyer Considerations Declines in sales of New homes may set up a buyer advantage compared to 2Q 2010 as unsold inventory builds up Buyers of Resale properties priced above $750K may see increased competition due to stronger sales in these segments Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

2 2Q 2011 Single Family Detached Residence Sales All Changes Compared to Same Quarter of Previous Year Percent Change in Number Sold: +20.0% % to +19.9% +0.0 to +9.9% -0.0 to -9.9% to -19.9% -20% or more Metro Area Total: +1.5% Areas with 50% + Distressed Sales = County Groupings Cherokee County: E. Cobb: W. Cobb: DeKalb: Douglas: 91 Forsyth: Fulton OTP: Fulton ITP: Gwinnett: Paulding: 191

3 2Q 2011 Single Family Detached Residence Sales 2Q ONLY Distressed Sales Percentage of Total Sales: <20.0% 20%-29.9% 30%-39.9% 40%-44.9% % 55%+ Metro Area Total: 40.9% County Groupings Cherokee County: E. Cobb: W. Cobb: DeKalb: Douglas: 91 Forsyth: Fulton OTP: Fulton ITP: Gwinnett: Paulding: 191

4 2Q 2011 Quarterly Metro Market Profile Single Family Detached Residences Distressed/Non-Distressed Supply (listings) vs. Demand (sales) Supply in all price ranges is in the Buyer s Market range above 7 months of supply for Non-Distressed properties Supply in all price ranges is in the Seller s Market range below 6 months of supply for Distressed properties Buyer Considerations Distressed properties have been in demand in all price ranges, possibly causing buyer competition for these houses to increase, requiring faster action and better offers by buyers High inventory of nondistressed properties leads to more competition between sellers to stand out from their competition, possibly resulting in increasing numbers of higher-value properties Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

5 2Q 2011 Single Family Detached Residence Sales All Changes Compared to Same Quarter of Previous Year % Change in Median Sales Price: +10.0% or More +0 to +9.9% -0.0 to -9.9% to -19.9% to -29.9% -30.0% or more Metro Area Total: -16.4% Areas with 50%+ Distressed Sales: County Groupings Cherokee County: E. Cobb: W. Cobb: DeKalb: Douglas: 91 Forsyth: Fulton OTP: Fulton ITP: Gwinnett: Paulding: 191

6 The Story of the Detached Residence Market 2Q 2011 Significant Market Observations Sales were higher- +3.0% in 2Q 2011 usually a positive sign for the market Distressed properties still represented a very large percentage of total sales 40.9% of sales Abnormal depressant on sales prices Median sales prices -16.4% lower, continuing a declining trend Results of high availability of lower priced Distressed properties Median S/L ratio lower 85.7%, down by -1.9 percentage points from the same period last year More difficult negotiating environment for Sellers due to an abundance of lower-priced distressed properties Median time on market longer 118 days, up 6.0% - High overall inventory increases competition for buyers among Active listings Incidence of price reductions high 67% of transactions Results of high inventory of Active listings of lower-priced Distressed Properties Initial listing prices too high 82% initially overpriced Sellers not fully aware of current competitive environment consequences Overall months of Active listings inventory was lower, but still very much in a Buyer s Market condition 7.1 months, -19% lower Supply of non-distressed properties were all above the 7 month Buyer s Market threshold Importance to Sellers Current Buyer price resistance remains very high due to availability of lower-priced distressed inventory, making high-value initial listing prices essential Distressed properties are dictating prices for all properties Lower inventory would normally bring a more competitive market if not for the availability of lower-priced Distressed Properties Importance to Buyers Unusual opportunity for high-value purchases - declining prices, distressed property availability and anxious sellers Steep declines in median sales prices likely present even greater values for Resale houses Reduced overall inventory of properties priced above $100K may signal an eventual increase in competition among buyers for a shrinking inventory Quick action and serious offers are required when high-value properties are found, since low median DOM and high S/L ratios usually result Success Strategies for Sellers Choose to factor in the impact of distressed properties competing for buyers in seller s price range and location, when setting initial listing price Maximize selling price and minimize market time by choosing an initial listing price that represents high value compared to competing listings Constantly re-evaluate market trends to re-assess pricing choice avoid chasing the market Consequences of Wrong Seller Choices Sell after a much longer time on market - Median DOM at least 8.2 times longer Sale at a much lower portion of original listing price median of percentage points lower if listed multiple times Fail to sell 47.4% of all listings failed to sell Multiple listing periods 36.3% of sellers required multiple listing periods, selling at a median of percentage points of original list price lower after a median of 14.2 times more days on market FMLS Data for Single Family Detached residence sales. Data is believed to be accurate, but is not warranted. The Rawls Group Keller Williams Realty

7 The Story of the Market 2Q 2011 Some of our market measurements turned more positive during 2Q 2011, providing some encouraging signs. YTD sales were a bit higher than in June of last year even though government incentives stimulated sales during early 2010, Failed listings fell below 50% and months of supply dropped substantially. Still, ample evidence remained that the market has not yet turned to growth in many other aspects. Distressed property availability is still depressing several other measurements reminding us that the market still has a way to go before we will see real growth again. Distressed sales represented 4 of every 10 sales in 2Q 2011 causing overall median prices to drop sharply, price reductions for more than 6 in 10 closings, multiple listing periods to be required for more than 1 in 3 sales transactions and median DOM to remain high. Some feel that this situation is good for the market, longer term. Similar to a capitulation phase in the stock market, where negativity is flushed out in a selling spree which then leads to a more sustainable upturn, as prices finally become attractive and inventory becomes low. It remains to be seen whether or not that applies to this market and how long it will take to flush out the high level of distressed properties, but in the meantime, motivated sellers must adapt to the current condition by offering their properties at a high value compared with competing properties, including distressed properties, in order to sell at a reasonable percentage of their asking price in a reasonable period of time. In the meantime, buyers have the opportunity to buy high-value properties at unusually attractive prices, by not only considering distressed sale properties, but also finding those that have gone through previous listing periods and/or had price reductions. In those instances, buyers should find sellers more willing to negotiate and settle for a lower price to end the process and move on. These properties exist in all price ranges and may become the catalyst needed to finally start a recovery. FMLS Data for Single Family Detached residence sales. Data is believed to be accurate, but is not warranted. The Rawls Group Keller Williams Realty

8 *Median: Half are above and half are below this number FMLS data for single family residence sales. Data is believed to be accurate but is not warranted. ChartMaster Services, LLC Metro Market Overview 6/30/2011 Provided by Keller Williams Realty Single Family Detached Residences Metro Atlanta (41 FMLS Areas) List Price Number Active Number Pending Pending Ratio No. of Closings Last 3 Months Foreclosures % of Closings Short Sale % of Closings Total Distressed sales % of closings Failed Listings Percent Months Supply of Listings Median* Original List Price (Previous listing periods included) Median Sales Price Median* % S/L Price (Previous Listing Periods Included) Median* Days on Market (Previous Listing Periods Included) Current Month Only Using most recent 3-months of Sales and Failed data to minimize unusual monthly variations <=$25K % % 30.5% 60.1% 27.2% 3.0 $22,500 $17, % 78 $26-$50K 1, % 1, % 33.6% 64.2% 29.2% 3.3 $47,500 $37, % 67 $51-$75K 1, % % 29.6% 62.5% 36.6% 4.8 $79,900 $60, % 106 $76-$100K 2,056 1, % % 29.8% 56.5% 46.0% 6.4 $104,900 $85, % 118 $101-$150K 3,892 1, % 1, % 25.3% 49.3% 48.5% 6.8 $149,900 $121, % 133 $151-$200K 3,695 1, % 1, % 21.1% 38.6% 52.5% 8.8 $199,900 $170, % 165 $201-$250K 2, % % 13.2% 23.8% 52.9% 9.3 $249,900 $219, % 159 $251-$300K 2, % % 16.9% 24.6% 56.4% 10.0 $299,999 $268, % 150 $301-$350K 1, % % 13.4% 20.4% 52.1% 9.9 $350,000 $316, % 139 $351-$400K 1, % % 13.7% 21.4% 50.6% 9.8 $416,450 $362, % 165 $401-$500K 1, % % 8.6% 13.2% 55.9% 10.9 $489,900 $432, % 134 $501-$600K % % 11.0% 16.0% 59.4% 12.7 $599,000 $525, % 175 $601-$750K % % 11.2% 14.8% 61.9% 13.9 $724,900 $631, % 149 $751-$1.0M % % 13.8% 17.1% 59.1% 12.6 $982,000 $810, % 239 $1.0-$1.5M % % 8.9% 14.4% 58.7% 14.4 $1,427,000 $1,110, % 236 $1.5M-$2.0M % % 18.2% 18.2% 71.4% 28.2 $2,324,500 $1,546, % 416 >$2.0M % % 4.3% 4.3% 79.1% 29.0 $3,690,000 $2,384, % 323 TOTAL 24,887 8, % 9, % 22.6% 42.1% 48.4% 7.6 $175,000 $138, % 126

9 Monthly Trend Analysis June 2010 January 2011 June 2011 Remarks Much lower than last year, lower vs. January - Unusual for a spring # Active 29,357 25,441 24,887 market, lower due to higher Pending portion # Pending 5,825 5,276 Substantial increase given the smaller number of Actives Stronger 8,588 Spring market effect Pending Ratio 16.6% 17.2% Substantial increase Market pace increased likely due to combination of seasonal factors and greater sales of distressed 25.7% properties Substantial increase vs. January Again likely due to seasonal factors # Sold (Previous 3 Months) 9,173 7,312 9,805 and distressed property sales Foreclosure % (Previous 3 Months) 26.4% 19.5% 19.5% No increase vs. January, much lower than June 2010 Short Sale % (Previous 3 Months) 11.3% 20.5% 22.6% Larger increase vs. both January and June 2010 Short Sale coding had just become available in early 2010 data Total Distressed Property % of Substantial increase vs. both January and June 2010 Greater sales (Previous 3 Months) 37.8% 40.1% 42.1% pressure on prices of non-distressed properties Failed % (Previous 3 months) 51.1% 62.7% 48.4% Substantially lower vs. January Result of higher Pending ratio Also lower than in June 2010 Lower than January as a result of increased Sales vs. stable Actives Months of Supply of Listings Needed in order to reduce inventory of distressed properties Median Original List Price Much lower OLP likely due to larger percentage of distressed (Previous 3 Mos.) $204,900 $189,000 $175,000 properties sold Median Sales Price (Previous 3 Mos.) $170,000 $150,000 $138,495 Much lower due to larger percentage of distressed properties sold Median S/OL Price Ratio Slightly lower vs. January and lower than June 2010 bargain (Previous 3 mos.) 86.9% 84.3% 84.2% hunter buyer mentality keeping price resistance high Median Days on Market (Previous Slightly higher than both January and June 2010 Took longer to 3 mos.) finally get to an acceptable sales price due to greater price resistance

10 Monthly Trend Analysis October November December January February March Remarks # Active 27,798 26,876 26,030 25,441 25,303 25,856 # Pending 5,264 5,493 5,062 5,276 6,517 7,561 Pending Ratio 15.9% 17.0% 16.3% 17.2% 20.5% 22.6% Foreclosure % (Last 3 Months) 19.8% 21.0% 19.7% 19.5% 20.0% 20.8% Short Sale % (Last 3 Months) 17.4% 18.5% 19.0% 20.5% 21.8% 24.3% Total Distressed Property % of sales (Last 3 Months) 37.2% 39.5% 38.7% 40.1% 41.7% 45.1% Failed % (Last 3 months) 62.0% 62.3% 62.9% 62.7% 63.2% 62.0% Months of Supply of Listings Median Original List Price (3 Mos.) $199,900 $191,000 $187,700 $189,000 $184,900 $179,900 Median Sales Price (3 Mos.) $167,000 $156,333 $150,000 $150,000 $146,500 $140,760 Median S/OL Price Ratio (3 mos.) 86.2% 85.5% 84.8% 84.3% 83.4% 82.6% Median Days on Market (3 mos.)

11 Monthly Trend Analysis Detached Distressed Properties Percent of Sales January February March April May June Remarks <=$25K 67.5% 66.9% 65.6% 65.5% 61.0% 60.1% $26-$50K 64.0% 64.0% 67.9% 69.4% 68.3% 64.2% $51-$75K 60.9% 64.2% 65.1% 66.2% 62.5% 62.5% $76-$100K 55.1% 56.0% 57.4% 59.4% 58.7% 56.5% $101-$150K 46.2% 47.2% 50.7% 52.0% 50.7% 49.3% $151-$200K 35.9% 36.1% 40.9% 42.0% 40.8% 38.6% $201-$250K 24.8% 26.1% 28.9% 30.9% 26.1% 23.8% $251-$300K 18.4% 19.2% 24.8% 29.3% 27.2% 24.6% $301-$350K 21.8% 23.3% 25.2% 22.1% 21.6% 20.4% $351-$400K 17.8% 19.4% 22.1% 24.0% 23.0% 21.4% $401-$500K 19.5% 21.6% 23.7% 19.8% 18.1% 13.2% $501-$600K 23.7% 21.6% 19.9% 17.0% 16.8% 16.0% $601-$750K 24.3% 28.5% 28.3% 22.5% 20.9% 14.8% $751-$1.0M 20.0% 25.0% 29.4% 28.3% 23.2% 17.1% $1.0-$1.5M 15.8% 16.9% 22.2% 23.4% 23.2% 14.4% $1.5M-$2.0M 26.9% 14.3% 13.0% 5.0% 21.1% 18.2% >$2.0M 9.1% 18.8% 27.3% 6.7% 0.0% 4.3% TOTAL 40.1% 41.7% 45.1% 46.7% 44.9% 42.1%

12 The Rawls Group Keller Williams Realty