MARCH 2019 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

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1 MARCH 219 Real Estate Market Report An analysis of real estate activity through February 28, 219 provided courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group Spacious Four Bedroom Brick Colonial in Battlefield Estates ConfederacyDrive.com

2 [1] MARKET SUMMARY HOME SALES REPORT March 219 All Residential Sales % Change ('18 '19) February % Year To Date (Jan Feb) % Last 12 Months (Mar Feb) 1,144 1,316 1,268 1, % Median Sales Price % Change ('18 '19) February $193, $189, $198, $215, 8.59% Year To Date (Jan Feb) $194, $187,75 $25, $214, 4.39% Last 12 Months (Mar Feb) $186, $192, $199,9 $212, 6.5% Median Days on Market % Change ('18 '19) Year To Date (Jan Feb) % Last 12 Months (Mar Feb) % Home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County slowed down quite a bit (-22%) in February (63 sales) as compared to last February when there were 81 sales. That said -- last February seems to have been the exception to the rule, as the two months of February prior to that (216, 217) both showed home sales below 7. While the pace of sales may have slowed in February, the rolling 12 month pace of sales (1,287 sales) is still 1.5% higher than a year ago (1,268 sales) -- and the median sales price has risen 6.5% over the past year to $212,. Homes are also selling faster this year (median of 25 days on market) as compared to last year (32 days).

3 [1] MARKET SUMMARY HOME SALES REPORT March 219 Detached Homes % Change ('18 '19) Year To Date (Jan Feb) % Last 12 Months (Mar Feb) % Median Sales Price % Change ('18 '19) Year To Date (Jan Feb) $216,5 $217,5 $229,9 $228,.83% Last 12 Months (Mar Feb) $24, $214, $225, $228, 1.33% Attached Homes % Change ('18 '19) Year To Date (Jan Feb) % Last 12 Months (Mar Feb) % Median Sales Price % Change ('18 '19) Year To Date (Jan Feb) $146, $157, $152, $165,75 9.5% Last 12 Months (Mar Feb) $149,2 $15, $159,9 $169, 5.69% The green charts above shows trends in detached home sales -- as compared to the orange charts which show attached home sales, comprised of duplexes, townhouses and condominiums. While the pace of sales of detached homes did increase by 3.21% over the past year, the median price of those homes only increased by 1.33%. I believe this 1.33% increase is the best indication of the change in market value of homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County over the past year -- as a change in the mix of attached vs. detached homes selling affects the overall residential sales trend.

4 [1] MARKET SUMMARY HOME SALES REPORT :: BY AREA City of Harrisonburg Rockingham County # Home Sales % Change % Change February % % Last 12 Months (Mar Feb) % % City of Harrisonburg Rockingham County Median Sales Price % Change % Change February $171, $184,5 7.89% $21,5 $229, 13.65% Last 12 Months (Mar Feb) $177, $189,9 7.29% $212, $224,9 6.8% City of Harrisonburg Rockingham County Median Days on Market % Change % Change February % % Last 12 Months (Mar Feb) % % It continues to hold true that each year almost twice as many homes sell in Rockingham County as compared to the City of Harrisonburg. Over the past 12 months, that trend continued - though with a significant year-over-year surge of sales in the City (+8.87%) as compared to a slight decline in the County (-2.12%). The median sales price increased in each region of these two regions of our local market -- though the median sales price continues to be a good bit higher in the County ($224,9) than in the City ($189,9). The lower City median sales price is likely a result of the majority of our area s townhouses being located in the City.

5 [2] RECENT TRENDS Month By Month Home Sales History All Residential Sales (Detached & Attached) February Home Sales JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Seen a bit more clearly here, this was the slowest February of home sales we have seen in the past few years -- having followed the one of the slowest months of January. So, thus far, we re off to a slow start - but where things really start to matter is when we get into March and April. If we aren t seeing 9 to home sales per month over the next two months then we may end up seeing a drop in annual home sales this year. Based on contract activity (shown later in this report) I expect we will see a reasonably strong year in 219, but the closed sales we have seen thus far are not yet supporting my theory.

6 [2] RECENT TRENDS Monthly Cumulative Residential Sales ,313 1,34 1,261 1,218 1,23 1,158 1,125 1,15 1,12 1,67 1,85 1,41 1, ,8 1, DEC NOV OCT SEP AUG JUL JUN MAY APR MAR FEB JAN This colorful graph offers another way to look at the overall sales trends for the past few years in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market. As shown above, our local housing market experienced small incremental growth between 213 and 215 before seeing a sharp uptick in home sales in 216, and then a modest decline between 216 and 217. That trend reversed itself in with an increase as compared to 217, up to 1,34 home sales in 218. We didn t quite match the strong sales seen in but we came very close -- and broke the 1,3 mark again, for only the second time in the past 1 years.

7 [2] RECENT TRENDS 1,8 1,6 $186, $186,5 $186, $185, $185, Time Adjusted Home Sales Trends :: All Residential Properties # Home Sales, Median Sales Price in each 12 Month Period $185,75 $186,25 $189, $19, $19, $192,5 $192, $192, $192, $19, $192,7 $193, $194,5 $196,5 $195, $196,125 $198,25 $198,5 $199,882 $199,9 $2, $23, $26, $21, $21, $21, $212, $212,6 $212, $211,75 $211,5 $212, $22, $21, $2, $19, 1,4 1,2 1,143 1,156 1,164 1,187 1,25 1,212 1,244 1,276 1,268 1,32 1,313 1,315 1,316 1,325 1,324 1,34 1,326 1,328 1,289 1,265 1,266 1,253 1,261 1,255 1,267 1,273 1,279 1,26 1,296 1,31 1,36 1,31 1,323 1,36 1,34 1,35 1,287 $18, $17, $16, $15, $14, 1, $13, Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb 19 This graph shows a rolling 12 month trend line of the number of homes sold in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County area, as well as the median price of the homes that sold during these time frames. Each data point shows one year s worth of home sales, which eliminates the volatility of evaluating sales figures on a monthly basis. The pace of home sales peaked in mid-217, generally declined through early 218, rose again for much of 218, but has been declining for the past few months. The median sales price has been on a relatively steady rise for over two years now -- increasing above $2K in 218 and now above $21K since late 218.

8 [3] LONG TERM TRENDS Home Sales & Price Trends All Residential Sales (Attached & Detached) 2, $25, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 1,57 $149, +11% +14% 1,669 $169,9 14% +14% $192,983 1,438 +1% 13% $195, 1,248 23% $195, 5% $185, 967 1% 87 3% $179,9 6% $169,9 +1% $172, % 8% % +2% $175, +2% $178, +4% $185, 1,122 1,67 1,85 +3% +2% +19% +4% $192,5 +3% $198,25 +7% $211,75 1,39 1,34 1,26 +17% 4% +3% $214, $2, $15, $, 6 4 $5, $ This graph provides an overall indicator of the state of our housing market, showing both the number of homes being sold each year since 23 (yellow bars) as well as changes in the median sales price during the same time period (blue line). After six years in a row ( ) of an increasing pace of home sales, we then saw a 4% decline in the pace of home sales in 217. This trend reversed itself in 218 with a 3% increase in the pace of sales. We have now also completed our seventh year in a row of seeing an increase in the median sales price in our area. The median sales price of all residential sales was $211,75 in up 7% from last year.

9 [3] LONG TERM TRENDS Home Sales & Price Trends Detached Homes 1,6 1,4 1,2 $17, +24% $21, +8% $226,8 1% $223,575 4% $215, 6% $23, 4% $195, 6% $184, +6% $195, 2% $192, 1% $19, +5% $2, +7% $214, +5% $224,6 +2% $228, $228, $25, $2, 1, 8 6 1,24 1,25 11% 99 12% % % % +3% % % % +2% 978 9% +6% $15, $, $5, 4 $ 2 95 $5, $, The single family home market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County improved significantly between 215 and 216 with a 2% increase in the number of homes sold but then took a step backwards in 217 with a 9% decline. In 218, sales started charging forward again with a 6% increase in the pace of sales. Median sales prices of single family homes has increased for each of the past four years -- though the pace of those increases slowed in 218 to only 2%. The median sales price of single family homes last year was $228, -- the highest median sales price on record for Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.

10 [3] LONG TERM TRENDS Home Sales & Price Trends Attached Homes (Duplexes, Townhomes & Condos) % +33% +19% % $118,5 $134,95 $16,85 +2% $163,8 15% 45 +2% $166,635 36% 289 4% $159,545 3% $154,25 9% $14,5 6% $132, % 34 7% +14% % +11% 24% % 12% % $137,25 +11% $151,75 $151,75 1% $149,5 +7% $159,8 +5% $167,8 37 2% +12% 361 $165,75 $18, $16, $14, $12, $, $8, $6, $4, 32 $2, $ Townhouse (and duplexes and condo) sales took a small step backwards last year after six years of steady increases in the pace of sales. At year-end, 2% fewer attached dwellings (361) had sold in 218 as compared to in 217 when 37 sold. Despite a slight slow down in the pace of sales -- possbily caused by very low inventory absent much new construction -- the median sales price continues to climb, now up to $167,8. Here is yet another record broken -- the median sales price of $167,8 is the highest we have ever seen in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.

11 [3] LONG TERM TRENDS Market Balance between Buyers and Sellers Assuming Six Months of Housing Supply is a Balanced Market Buyer's Market SELLERS BUYERS Balanced Market BUYERS SELLERS Seller's Market 2 Feb 13 Apr 13 Jun 13 Aug 13 Oct 13 Dec 13 Feb 14 Apr 14 Jun 14 Aug 14 Oct 14 Dec 14 Feb 15 Apr 15 Jun 15 Aug 15 Oct 15 Dec 15 Feb 16 Apr 16 Jun 16 Aug 16 Oct 16 Dec 16 Feb 17 Apr 17 Jun 17 Aug 17 Oct 17 Dec 17 Feb 18 Apr 18 Jun 18 Aug 18 Oct 18 Dec 18 Feb 19 Most housing market analysts consider six months of inventory (active listings) to be an indicator of a balanced market (between buyers and sellers). The BUYERS trend line above is illustrating how many buyers are buying in a six month period. The SELLERS trend line above is illustrating how many sellers are in the market (active listings) at any given time. Over the past several years we have seen a steady increase in buyers and a declining number of sellers. In June 216, these two trajectories crossed, and there are now many more buyers buying in a six month period than there are homes for sale -- though the buying pace has leveled off.

12 [3] LONG TERM TRENDS Median Price vs. Price Per SF (Detached Homes) Median Price Price/SF $35, $14 $12 $ $97 $116 $129 $127 $127 $117 $113 $11 $13 Median Price Per SF $113 $15 $16 $18 $118 $125 $12 $3, $25, $8 $6 $17K $21K $227K $224K $215K $23K $195K $184K $195K $192K $19K $2K $225K $228K $228K $214K Median Sales Price $2, $15, $4 $, $2 $5, $ $ In addition to monitoring home values by overall median sales prices in our market, it can be insightful to examine the median price per square foot of homes that are selling. The graph above shows the median price per square foot of all single family homes sold over the past 15 years. The value trend captured by this graph is quite similar to the trend shown in the single family home median sales price during the same time, which validates that assumed set of changes in home values. Over the past several years (215 through 218) we have seen increases in the median sales price as well as the median price per square foot of single family homes.

13 [3] LONG TERM TRENDS Median Price Per Square Foot by Home Size Single Family Homes 1,499 SF 1,5 2,5 SF 2,5+ SF 15 $ $137 $ $121 $111 $18 $16 $11 $111 $14 $115 $15 $114 $14 $13 $121 $16 $11 $126 $115 $15 $119 $17 $123 $19 $122 $16 $96 $97 $ Price per square foot of single family homes certainly varies for many reasons, including the age, location, lot size and structural characteristics of each home sold. However, there are some similarities in homes of similar sizes. Looking at 218 figures, this graph illustrates that the median price per square foot of larger homes (25+ SF) is a good bit lower ($16/SF) than that of homes with less than 15 SF ($137/SF). These values cannot be used as an absolute standard against which the value of any home can be measured, but they can provide some helpful guidance when trying to determine the value of a home.

14 [3] LONG TERM TRENDS 2, Median List Price to Sales Price Ratio within the context of Home Sales Pace 1,75 99% 99% 99% 1,669 98% 98% 97% 96% 96% 96% 97% 97% 97% 98% 98% 99% 98%.% 1,5 1,57 1, % 1,25 1,248 1,67 1,85 1,122 1,39 1,26 1,34 9.% 1, % 75 8.% % % This graph shows the average list price to sales price ratio (red line) over the past 15 years as compared to the overall pace of home sales. At the peak of the housing boom (24-26) sellers were able to obtain a median of 99% of their asking price --- up from a median of 98% in 21 before the pace of home sales started escalating. Then, when the pace of home sales slowed (through 21) this metric dropped to 96%, where it stayed for three years. Sellers started selling for slightly more in when they could obtain 97% of their list price. This increased to 98% in 216, held steady in 217, and returned to 99% in 218.

15 [3] LONG TERM TRENDS New Construction Detached Home Sales Trends Number of Sales, Median Price Per Square Foot $133 $ $146 $ $137 $13 $129 $128 $129 $136 $14 $141 $149 $151 $ $ New home builders experienced a steady decline in new home sales between 25 and dropping 78% from a peak of 186 to 41 sales in a year. Even if we use a starting point of 21 (not shown above; before the housing boom) we still find a 7% drop between 21 and 21. The number of new home sales per year has not crept up much since that time -- staying between 38 and 54 new home sales per year. The past three years, however, were QUITE different. There were a total of 82 new home sales in 216, then 77 in 217, and 82 again in 218. This is a welcome sign for new home builders -- and buyers!

16 [4] BUYER ACTIVITY 18 Buyers Per Month Commiting to Buy Properties Annual Pace: 1,327 contracts Annual Pace: 1,272 contracts Annual Pace: 1,32 contracts Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16 Dec 16 Jan 17 Feb 17 Mar 17 Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18 Sep 18 Oct 18 Nov 18 Dec 18 Jan 19 Feb 19 Here we go again! Contract activity started to heat up in February - even if outdoor temperatures did not. A total of 92 properties went under contract during February, a slight increase from the same month last year. The annual pace of contract activity (132 contracts) is also up slightly from a year ago (1272 contracts). If history can be our guide, we are likely to see a sharp uptick in contract activity in March 219, and that should last for the next four to six months, through July or possibly even August. Despite a slow month of closed sales in February, the outlook for closed sales in March and April remains bright given this contract data.

17 [5] INVENTORY LEVELS 6 Inventory Levels (end of month) Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16 Dec 16 Jan 17 Feb 17 Mar 17 Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18 Sep 18 Oct 18 Nov 18 Dec 18 Jan 19 Feb 19 Over the past several years, inventory levels have dipped lower and lower and lower. This has not, though, been accompanied by a decline in the pace of home sales. So -- if just as many (or more) buyers are buying, how are they doing it if inventory levels are so low? They re doing it with speed. The pace of home sales can increase, with inventory levels declining if the median days on market is also declining, which is definitely the case in our local market. So, plenty (maybe, maybe not) homes are being listed for sale, but they are then going under contract quickly, which keeps inventory levels low but the pace of home sales high.

18 [5] INVENTORY LEVELS Inventory Levels by Property Type Detached Homes Attached Homes Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16 Dec 16 Jan 17 Feb 17 Mar 17 Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18 Sep 18 Oct 18 Nov 18 Dec 18 Jan 19 Feb 19 This graph examines the differences in inventory levels over time when examining only single family homes as compared to attached dwellings (townhouses, duplexes, condos). The number of detached homes for sale has decreased by 2% over the past year, while the number of attached homes (townhouses, duplexes and condos) for sale has actually increased by 14% over the past year. We saw inventory levels increase a bit through the Spring and Summer, which did provide buyers with more options -- but we are likely to see these inventory levels decline further as we continue through the Winter season.

19 [5] INVENTORY LEVELS Inventory Levels by Property Location City of Harrisonburg Rockingham County Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16 Dec 16 Jan 17 Feb 17 Mar 17 Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18 Sep 18 Oct 18 Nov 18 Dec 18 Jan 19 Feb 19 Inventory levels have fallen 12% in Rockingham County over the past year and have fallen 19% in the City of Harrisonburg during the same timeframe. Of note -- while there are approximately twice as many home sales in the County than in the City -- there are more than three times as many homes for sale in the County than in the City. As such, the low inventory levels are much more of an issue in the City right now if we look at both sellers (supply) and buyers (demand). This is likely leading to the faster increases in median sales price in the City, and the lower median days on market in the City.

20 [6] DAYS ON MARKET Days on Market Analysis of Sold Properties Residential Listings Sold in the Past 12 Months Days on Market Analysis of Active Listings Active Residential Listings > 1 year 28 2% 6 12 months 13 8% > 1 year, 22, 9% < 3 days 47 18% 3 6 months % 6 12 months 5 2% 6 89 days 114 9% < 3 days % 3 59 days 54 21% 3 59 days % 3 6 months 64 25% 6 89 days 19 7% Median Days On Market: 25 Median Days On Market: 11 Declining inventory levels are contributing to an overall decline in the time it takes to sell a home in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. The current median Days on Market is 23 days for homes that have sold in the past year. Remarkably, 53% of homes that have sold in the past year have gone under contract within 3 days of having hit the market. Combine that with those that went under contract during the second month on the market, and you ll find that 67% of homes that sell go under contract within 6 days. The graph to the right, above, shows the length of time that each active listing has been on the market for sale.

21 [7] MARKET SEGMENTS Home Sales by Price Range (Average of Past 12 Months) $ $2k $2k $3k $3k $4k $4k % % % +3% The pace of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County varies significantly based on price range. The graph above shows the average number of home sales per month (given a 12-month average) as we have passed through the past two years. Home sales have been declining over the past year in the under $2K category -- though likely because of limited inventory, and fewer properties existing in this range based on increasing home values. We have seen year-over-year increases in all other price ranges -- with the most significant comparative increase in the pace of home sales being in those properties over $4K in value.

22 [7] MARKET SEGMENTS Inventory Levels by Price Range $ $2k $2k $3k $3k $4k $4k % 4% 17% +12% 2 Inventory levels shift up and down seasonally, but we are also seeing differences in year-over-year trajectories in each of the four price ranges outlined above. Inventory levels of homes under $2K have fallen dramatically over the past two years, with a 3% drop over the past year. Some of those homes have appreciated into the $2K-$3K price segment, where inventory levels have also decreased (-4%) over the past year. We have also seen an increase (+12%) in the availability of homes between $3K and $4K, though the highest price range ($4K+) has seen a decline (-17%) in homes for sale.

23 [7] MARKET SEGMENTS Months of Housing Supply by Price Range $ $2k $2k $3k $3k $4k $4k Entire Market: 3. Months of Housing Supply 12 Month Average of 313 Active Listings 12 Month Average of 17 Sales/Month % % % +5% With so many home sales (lots of buyers) and so few homes on the market (not so many sellers), there are low levels of supply in some price ranges in our local real estate market. The graph above illustrates that while it would take 6 months to sell all of the homes currently for sale over $4K if the same number of buyers bought each month as have been buying (on average) over the past 12 months and if no new listings came on the market -- but it would only take two months (!!) to burn through the under $2K (and under $3K) inventory. Many consider a six month supply to be a balance between buyers and sellers.

24 [8] LOTS AND LAND 45 Lot Sales & Median Prices less than 1 acre $12, 4 48 $99,9 $, $76,5 $8, 25 $54,5 $56,6 $59,9 $55, $54,5 $56,5 $54,9 $53,95 $59,65 $54,5 $58, $53,5 $61, $6, 2 15 $42, Stability $4, Stable-ish $2, $ With the exception of 216, we have seen between 78 and 84 lot sales of less than an acre for each of the past six years. This is a sharp decline from the 26-4 lot sales seen in 22-25, but it is an improvement over where things were (58-63 sales) between 29 and 212. From a value perspective, the sales prices of these less than an acre lots have also been rather stable -- fluctuating no further than between $53K and $6K over the past ten years. That is, of course, after a meteoric rise and then fall to/from $K. Given the trajectory of lot sales over the last few years, I expect we ll see something similar in 219.

25 [8] LOTS AND LAND $12, $17,713 $15, $24,184 $2,833 Land Sales & Median Price Per Acre 1 acre or more $15,964 $13,957 $15, $14,981 $13,24 $9,932 $15,171 $1, $15,827 $14,818 $27,671 $3, $25, $2, $15, $1, $5, $ $5, 2 12 $1, $15, Parcels of land larger than one acre in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County increased in pace during 217 to 88 land sales -- marking the highest year of sales since but then declined again in 218 to 79 lot sales. The median price per acre also declined in 218 to $14,818. Of note -- some aspects of this median price per acre calculation are affected by which parcels actually sell in a given year. We saw an increase in buyer demand in 217, which seems to have lead to a further increase in the median price per acre, and then a decline in demand in 218 accompanied by a decline in prices.

26 [9] ECONOMIC INDICATORS Home Sales vs. Trustee Sales Home Sales per HRAR MLS Recorded Trustee Deeds 1,8 1,669 1,6 1,57 1,438 1,4 1,248 1,39 1,26 1,34 1,2 1, ,13 1,85 1, The graph above is a comparison of two imprecise measures -- but the comparison can still be helpful. The blue bars show the number of home sales recorded in the HRAR MLS -- this does not include private sales that did not involve a Realtor, nor new home sales directly from a builder. The red bars show the number of recorded Trustee Deeds. Some foreclosed properties then show up again as REO properties. The foreclosure rate in our local market area is trending downward -- sharply in and the pace of home sales is increasing much more quickly, despite having slowed slightly in 217.

27 [9] ECONOMIC INDICATORS 6.% Average 3 Year Fixed Mortgage Interest Rate Source: Freddie Mac 5.5% 5.% 4.5% 4.% 3.5% 3.62% 3.71% 3.66% 3.64% 3.48% 3.48% 3.43% 3.42% 3.47% 4.3% 4.32% 4.19% 4.16% 4.14% 4.3% 3.95% 3.88% 3.92% 3.82% 3.83% 3.94% 3.9% 3.99% 4.15% 4.4% 4.44% 4.61% 4.56% 4.55% 4.54% 4.52% 4.72% 4.86% 4.81% 4.55% 4.46% 4.35% 3.% Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb 19 5.% 4.5% 4.% 3.5% 3.% 2.5% 3.9% 4.3% 4.% 4.1% 3.2% 3.8% 4.4% 4.4% 4.2% 4.% 4.2% 3.8% 3.6% 3.9% Harrisonburg Rockingham MSA Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 3.7% 3.6% 3.3% 3.9% 4.2% 4.% 3.9% 3.5% 3.3% 3.5% 3.% 3.5% 3.2% 3.3% 2.7% 2.9% 3.5% 3.% 3.1% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.4% 2.% Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 18 As shown in the top graph above, for most of the past three years, home buyers have seen tremendously low interest rates -- almost always under 4% except in late 216 and during just about all of 218. Somewhat encouragingly, the average mortgage interest rate has started to decline again over the past four months and is now below 4.5%. The second graph above illustrates trends in the local unemployment rate -- which has shown a general downward trend over the past several years to a current level of 2.4%. A low local unemployment rate and relatively low mortgage interest rates help our local housing market remain stable.

28 [1] MEET THE ANALYST / REALTOR Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker Scott P. Rogers, a professional, responsive, knowledgeable, friendly Associate Broker with Funkhouser Real Estate Group, began his real estate career in 23 and has been working hard ever since to provide exceptional service to his buyer and seller clients in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Since 21, Scott has been recognized each year by the Harrisonburg/Rockingham Association of Realtors as being in the top 1% of all area Realtors. A native of Montgomery County, Maryland, Scott earned a B.A. (2) and M.Ed. (22) from James Madison University, providing him formal education in graphic design, management and counseling -- all of which he leverages on a daily basis to the benefit of his clients. Scott s graphic design and web development background allows him to create and utilize high caliber technology and marketing solutions for his clients. Scott incorporates many innovative tools and technologies to serve his clients including: professional photography equipment, a quadcopter (drone), property websites for each of his listings, 3D Walk Through technology and Virtual Reality. He leads the local market in the adoption of new marketing techniques - for the latest, check out WalkThroughThisHome.com. In 27, Scott began providing in-depth analysis and commentary on the local real estate market via his real estate blog, HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. Since that time, he created many other valuable online resources for the local community such as: HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com, HarrisonburgInvestmentProperties.com, HarrisonburgAssessments.com, HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com, HarrisonburgTownhouses.com, BuyingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com, SellingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com and HarrisonburgRealEstateResources.com. Scott and his wife, Shaena, live in Rockingham County with their two children, Luke and Emily. In his free time, Scott enjoys spending time with his family, traveling, coaching middle school volleyball and operating TakeThemAMeal.com and PerfectPotluck.com. Questions? Contact Scott anytime... SCOTT P. ROGERS, Associate Broker (mobile) Local Online Real Estate Resources How To Navigate The Home Purchasing Process BuyingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com The Best Marketing Strategies For Selling Your Home SellingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com Property Search ScottPRogers.com Analysis and Commentary on our Local Real Estate Market HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com Daily Housing Market Analysis & Commentary HarrisonburgHousingToday.com Fast Access to All New Listings of Homes For Sale NewListingsInHarrisonburg.com Historical Record of Area Home Sales JustSoldInHarrisonburg.com Property Transfers in HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com Comprehensive Data on Single Family Home Neighborhoods HarrisonburgNeighborhoods.com Comprehensive Data on Area Townhouse Communities HarrisonburgTownhouses.com Analysis of Real Estate Investment Options in Harrisonburg HarrisonburgInvestmentProperties.com The Most Realistic, Immersive Way to Experience a Home WalkThroughThisHome.com Analysis of Property Assessments HarrisonburgAssessments.com Listings With Low List Prices Compared to Assessed Values BestDealsInHarrisonburg.com Trustee Sales in HarrisonburgForeclosures.com

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