March 5, :00 PM ET Our thanks to today s sponsor:

Transcription

1 March 5, :00 PM ET Our thanks to today s sponsor:

2 Micro & Macro Trends in the Mortgage Industry

3 WORLDWIDE ERC WEBINAR DISCLAIMER The views, opinions, and information expressed during this webinar are those of the presenter and are not the views or opinions of Worldwide ERC. Worldwide ERC makes no representation or warranty with respect to the webinar or any information or materials presented therein. Users of webinar materials should not rely upon or construe the information or resource materials contained in this webinar as legal or other professional advice and should not act or fail to act based on the information in these materials without seeking the services of a competent legal or other professional.

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5 Q&A Instructions Submit questions through Q&A dialogue box Box is located in lower right corner of screen Do not use the Chat Box Be specific You may submit your question at any time Q&A Dialogue Box:

6 CRP and GMS Certification If you are a CRP seeking CE credit for this webinar, you may utilize the CRP credits management portal, available online under My Account. The seminar ID is (All (S)CRPs must apply for credit and submit the $8 processing fee to receive CE credit) If you are a GMS seeking CE credit for this webinar, you must include the name/date of this webinar on your GMS Renewal Application (at the time you apply for recertification).

7 Today s Presenters Rick Bruce, SCRP, GMS SVP, Client Services CapRelo J. David Motley, CMB President Colonial Savings, F.A.

8 J. DAVID MOTLEY, CMB President of Colonial Savings, F.A. and its divisions Colonial National Mortgage and CU Members Mortgage 40 Year Industry Veteran 2018 Chairman, Mortgage Bankers Association 6 years as a member of the MBA Board of Directors 8 years on MBA s Residential Board of governors 2 as Chairman 2017 Chairman of MBA s Diversity and Inclusion Committee 2015 Co-Chair of the Servicing21 Working Group

9 SINGLE FAMILY ORIGINATION VOLUME THROUGH THE CYCLE Source: MBA Forecast

10 JOB GROWTH UNEXPECTEDLY STRONG Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

11 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AT 50 YEAR LOW Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

12 WAGE GROWTH TRENDING HIGHER Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Bureau of Labor Statistics

13 NEW HOME SALES SINCE 2009

14 EXISTING HOME SALES SINCE 2009

15 PURCHASE ACTIVITY SLOWED IN LATE 2018 Source: MBA Weekly Applications Survey

16 PURCHASE APPLICATIONS DECLINED IN SECOND HALF OF 2018 Source: MBA State Mortgage Activity Report

17 TOTAL HOME SALES IN 2018: PLUNGING?

18 150 METRO PRICES 90% with Price Gains 10% with Price Declines Lower-end Stronger Price Gains Upper-end Weaker Price Gains or Price Cuts Near Downtown Stronger Price Gains Distant Suburbs and Rural Areas Softer Gains

19 PRICES RISING AND RISING

20 RISING HOME PRICES (CONSTANT QUALITY INDEX)

21 HOUSING WEALTH GAIN ON A TYPICAL HOME PURCHASE

22 HOME EQUITY HAS RISEN BEYOND PREVIOUS PEAK Source: Federal Reserve Board

23 WEALTH: FROM 2000 TO 2016 TO 2018

24 REAL ESTATE WEALTH = ASSET - MORTGAGE

25 INVENTORY OF HOMES FINALLY TURNING HIGHER

26 DTI RATIOS STILL TRENDING HIGHER Source: AEI Center on Housing Markets and Finance

27 REALTORS BUYER TRAFFIC INDEX

28 HOTTEST MARKETS Source: Realtor.com

29 MONTHS SUPPLY AND PRICE CHANGE INVERSE RELATIONSHIP

30 HOUSING CONDITIONS IN 2004 AND 2018

31 HOUSING CONDITIONS IN 2004 AND 2018 CONTINUED

32 AFFORDABILITY INDEX

33 MEDIAN DAYS ON MARKET

34 % OF OFFERS AT OR ABOVE ASKING PRICE

35 MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS FOR HOME PURCHASE IS POSITIVE, THOUGH REFINANCINGS COLLAPSING

36 HOMEOWNERS

37 RENTERS

38 GLOBAL COMPARISON: CANADA AND NEW ZEALAND AT RISK?

39 GOOD ECONOMY Job Additions for 8 straight years Unemployment Rate 3.7% Record High Job Openings Historically Low Jobless Claims High Net Worth Wages picking up

40 RISK FACTORS International Trade Wars China, Brexit Inverted Yield Curve Data Privacy California Consumer Privacy Act of 2018 Shift to Snowballing Pessimism Political Toxicity

41 FORECAST

42 MBA FORECAST: STRONG JOB MARKET, RISING RATES Source: MBA Forecast

43 NATIONAL EXISTING HOME SALES

44 FORECAST OF HOME SALES: BORING!

45 FORECAST OF HOME PRICE

46 FORECAST OF MEDIAN HOME PRICE: $15,000 WEALTH GAIN IN TWO YEARS

47 REALTORS MEDIAN EXPECTED PRICE CHANGE IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS

48 HOUSING SHORTAGE TRACKER JUNE 2018

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50 Colonial National Mortgage CapRelo Chris Lauterbach Scott Esser Relocation and Corporate Lending Senior VP Business Development

51 Thank you for attending! Visit the Worldwide ERC web site at or contact Worldwide ERC for more information on these topics