Housing Price Forecasts. Illinois and Chicago PMSA, March 2017

Transcription

1 Housing Price Forecasts Illinois and Chicago PMSA, March 2017 Presented To Illinois Realtors From R E A L Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, Institute of Government and Public Affairs University of Illinois March 22, 2017 Contact: Geoffrey Hewings (hewings@illinois.edu) Jiyoung Chae (jchae3@illinois.edu)

2 Housing Forecast March Housing Price Forecast: Illinois and Chicago PMSA, March 2017 The Housing Market In February, the median prices kept increasing at a moderate year-over-year rate while sales experienced negative annual growth. 8,461 houses were sold in Illinois, a decline of -2.2% from a month ago and a decline of -2.8% from a year ago. In the Chicago PMSA, 5,891 houses were sold, decreasing by -5.9% from a month ago and by -5.2% from a year ago. The median price was $170,000 in Illinois, up 6.3% from February last year; the comparable figure for the Chicago PMSA was $210,000, up 12.0% from this time last year. In February, for the Chicago PMSA, the percentage of foreclosed sales (e.g. REOs) among the total sales was 15.5%. 4,875 regular sales were made, 4.0% less than last year. 978 foreclosed properties were sold, 10.5% less than last year. The median price was $229,000 for regular property sales, 9.3% more than last year; the comparable figure for the foreclosed properties was $139,000, up 13.9% from this time last year. The median sales price in February 2008 has been adjusted to 2017 values to enable calculation of the housing price recovery taking into account the effects of inflation. In Illinois, the February 2008 median sales price was $140,650 (in $2008) and $161,448 (in $2017); the current price level was 105% of the 2008 level after adjusting (121% before adjusting). In the Chicago PMSA, the February 2008 median sales price is $184,000 (in $2008) and $211,208 (in $2017); the comparable figure for price recovery in February 2017 is 99% after adjustment (114% before adjusting). Using the average annual growth rates of prices in the past months, Illinois has already recovered to the pre-bubble level and the Chicago PMSA is very close. The sales forecast for March, April and May 2017 suggests increases both on a yearly basis and a monthly basis for Illinois. Annually for Illinois, the three-month average forecasts point to an increase in the range 0.8% to 1.0%; the comparative figures for the Chicago PMSA are a decrease in the range -1.0% to -1.3%. On a monthly basis, the three-month average sales are forecast to increase in the range 19.9%-26.9% for Illinois and increase by 20.4%-27.6% for the Chicago PMSA. The pending home sales index 1 is a leading indicator based on contract signings. This February, the number of homes put under contract was greater than last year. The pending home sales index is (2008=100) in Illinois, up 6.3% from a year ago. In the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figure is 192.5, up 9.3% from a year ago. At the latest average annual pending sales rate, Illinois had enough housing inventory for 3.7 months 2 (down from 4.5 months a year ago). In the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figure was 2.8 months (down from 3.5 months a year ago). Months of supply for homes in all price ranges experienced declines both in Illinois and the Chicago PMSA, and homes in the low to moderate price ranges (<500K) experienced the largest changes. 1 The base level (100) of pending home sales is the average pending home sales of year Months supply of inventory is defined as inventory of homes for sale at the end of the month divided by the average monthly pending sales in the last twelve months.

3 Housing Forecast March The median price forecast indicates moderate annual growth in both Illinois and the Chicago PMSA for March, April and May. In Illinois, the median price is forecast to rise by 6.8% in March, 3.3% in April and 4.3% in May. For the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figures are 11.8% in March, 7.2% in April and 10.3% in May. As a complement to the median housing price index (HPI), the REAL HPI 3 forecasts a negative growth trend for both Illinois and the Chicago PMSA except for March. In Illinois, the REAL HPI (Jan 2008=1) is forecast to rise by 5.1% in March, decline by -3.9% in April and -8.5% in May. The comparable figures for the Chicago PMSA are 4.0% in March, -3.3% in April and -7.7% in May. REAL HPI takes housing characteristics into account and constructs comparable baskets of homes for each month. In February, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased while the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index decreased. According to the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, their survey revealed that an optimistic outlook for business conditions, jobs, and especially consumers income prospects drove the increase in confidence. The survey from the University of Michigan revealed that although the index edged downward, the overall average in the past three months was the highest in more than a decade, and normally, the implication would be that consumers expected Trump s election to have a positive economic impact. A more housing specific sentiment index, the Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI), also pointed in a positive direction and reached an historic high. This is likely due to the strong increases in job confidence and income gains, and increased housing demand. The Housing Market Current Condition In February, the median prices kept increasing at a moderate year-over-year rate while sales experienced a negative annual growth. 8,461 houses were sold in Illinois, a decline of -2.2% from a month ago and a decline of -2.8% from a year ago. In the Chicago PMSA, 5,891 houses were sold, decreasing by -5.9% from a month ago and decreasing by -5.2% from a year ago. The median price was $170,000 in Illinois, up 6.3% from February last year; the comparable figure for the Chicago PMSA was $210,000, up 12.0% from this time last year. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA Total Home Sales and Median Home Sales Price figures; Forecast for March 2017 report table) In February, for the Chicago PMSA, the percentage of foreclosed sales (e.g. REOs) among the total sales was 15.5%. 4,875 regular sales were made, 4.0% less than last year. 978 foreclosed properties were sold, 10.5% less than last year. The median price was $229,000 for regular property sales, 9.3% more than last year; the comparable figure for the foreclosed properties was $139,000, up 13.9% from this time last year. (Reference: Ratio of Foreclosed Sales over Total Sales, Sales & Median Prices: Foreclosed vs. Regular figures) In February, at the latest average annual pending sales rate, Illinois had enough housing inventory for 3.7 months 4 (down from 4.5 months a year ago). In the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figure was 2.8 months (down from 3.5 months a year ago). Months of supply for homes in all price ranges experienced declines both in Illinois and the Chicago PMSA, 3 REAL HPI was developed by Esteban Lopez and Minshu Du. Contact us for further details. 4 Months supply of inventory is defined as inventory of homes for sale at the end of the month divided by the average monthly pending sales in the last twelve months.

4 Housing Forecast March and homes in the low to moderate price ranges (<500K) experienced the largest changes. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA Annual Months Supply by Price Range figures) In February, the market shares of homes priced at the low end (<$100K) experienced the largest change compared to a year ago. In Illinois, the market share for homes less than $100K decreased to 25.3% from 27.5% a year ago; the comparative figure for the Chicago PMSA showed a decrease to 14.8% from 18.5% a year ago. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA Price Stratification figures) The Housing Market Forecast and Future Condition The median price forecast indicates moderate annual growth in both Illinois and the Chicago PMSA for March, April and May. In Illinois, the median price is forecast to rise by 6.8% in March, 3.3% in April and 4.3% in May. For the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figures are 11.8% in March, 7.2% in April and 10.3% in May. (Reference: Forecast for March 2017 report table) As a complement to the median housing price index (HPI), the REAL HPI 5 forecasts a negative growth trend for both Illinois and the Chicago PMSA except for March. In Illinois, the REAL HPI (Jan 2008=1) is forecast to rise by 5.1% in March, decline by -3.9% in April and -8.5% in May. The comparable figures for the Chicago PMSA are 4.0% in March, -3.3% in April and -7.7% in May. REAL HPI takes housing characteristics into account and constructs comparable baskets of homes for each month. (Reference: Housing Price Index) The sales forecast for March, April and May 2017 suggests increases both on a yearly basis and a monthly basis for Illinois. Annually for Illinois, the three-month average forecasts point to an increase in the range 0.8% to 1.0%; the comparative figures for the Chicago PMSA are a decrease in the range -1.0% to -1.3%. On a monthly basis, the three-month average sales are forecast to increase in the range 19.9%-26.9% for Illinois and increase by 20.4%-27.6% for the Chicago PMSA. (Reference: Forecast for March 2017 report table) The pending home sales index 6 is a leading indicator based on contract signings. This February, the number of homes put under contract was greater than last year. The pending home sales index is (2008=100) in Illinois, up 6.3% from a year ago. In the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figure is 192.5, up 9.3% from a year ago. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA Pending Home Sales Index figure) In February 2017, 1,841 houses were newly filed for foreclosure in the Chicago PMSA (down 5.7% and up 1.9% respectively from a year and a month ago). 1,274 foreclosures were completed 7 (down 12.2% and down 25.2% respectively from a year and a month ago). As of February 2017, there are 27,740 homes at some stage of foreclosure the foreclosure inventory. The monthly average net flows of foreclosures (foreclosure inflows - outflows) were 345 in the past 6 months, 275 in the last 12 months and 171 in the last 24 months. (Reference: Chicago PMSA Foreclosure Inflows and Outflows, and Inventory figures). 5 REAL HPI was developed by Esteban Lopez and Minshu Du. Contact us for further details. 6 The base level (100) of pending home sales is the average pending home sales of year Including cancelled foreclosures and auctions

5 Housing Forecast March The Economy In February 2017, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation report, the national unemployment rate edged up to 4.7% and nonfarm payroll jobs experienced a gain of 235,000 jobs. The employment gains in February were spearheaded by construction (58,000), followed by private educational services (29,000), and manufacturing (28,000). In January 2017, according to the Illinois Department of Employment Security (IDES) news release, the Illinois unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.7%. The state added 1,700 non-farm payroll jobs. The largest gains were in three sectors, construction (6,800), leisure and financial activities (3,800) and trade, transportation and utilities (2,700). Furthermore, the job growth in December was revised from the preliminary estimate of -16,700 jobs to 2,000 jobs. In January 2016, the one-year-ahead forecast for Illinois indicates that the non-farm employment will increase at a rate between 0.04% and 0.42%, corresponding to job gains between 2,600 and 25,100. Four out of ten sectors are forecast with positive job growth: financial activities (1.90%: 7,400), education and health (1.42%; 13,100), leisure and hospitality (1.10%; 6,500), and professional and business services (0.75%: 7,100). Longer-term Outlook In February, one consumer sentiment index increased while the other declined. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased to from last month. Their survey revealed that an optimistic outlook for business conditions, jobs, and especially consumers income prospects drove the increase in confidence. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index decreased to 96.3 from 98.5 last month. Their survey revealed that although the index edged downward, the overall average in the past three months was the highest in more than a decade, and normally, the implication would be that consumers expected Trump s election to have a positive economic impact. In February, Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) increased to 88.3 from 82.7 last month, a new all-time high. This upward optimism was mainly driven by the strong increases in job confidence and income gains, and increased housing demand. This index uses information from their National Housing Survey collecting consumers feeling and opinions on home purchasing, directions and conditions of the housing market, finance conditions and the job market. The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) increased to 98.7 in January from 97.3 in December. The rise is attributed to positive job growth in manufacturing, nonmanufacturing and construction and to the improvement of retail activities in the Chicago area. Prices continue to move in a positive direction, noted Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, Director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory. While consumer confidence reflects optimism about the economy, the housing inventory continues to shrink suggesting that while more optimistic, many home-owners are not yet tempted enough to consider moving to a larger or more expensive home.

6 Housing Forecast March Forecast for March 2017 report PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR THE TOTAL NUMBER OF SALES Annual Monthly Illinois Chicago PMSA Illinois Chicago PMSA Dec % -2.5% 2.1% -0.2% Jan % 2.3% -26.6% -23.9% Feb % -5.2% -2.2% -5.9% 3 Month Avg. -0.6% -1.9% -9.6% -10.3% SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST INTERVALS FOR THE TOTAL NUMBER OF SALES Annual Monthly Illinois Chicago PMSA Illinois Chicago PMSA Mar % 0.8% -0.6% -0.8% 37.6% 50.8% 37.4% 50.5% Apr % 0.4% -1.6% -2.2% 16.0% 21.7% 17.2% 23.3% May % 1.8% -0.6% -0.9% 12.9% 17.4% 13.3% 18.0% 3 Month Avg. 0.8% 1.0% -1.0% -1.3% 19.9% 26.9% 20.4% 27.6% SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MEDIAN PRICE Illinois Chicago PMSA Illinois Chicago PMSA Dec-16 $174,000 $214,000 Dec-15 $165,000 $198,250 Jan-17 $171,000 $209,000 Jan-16 $162,950 $190,000 Feb-17 $170,000 $210,000 Feb-16 $160,000 $187,500 Mar-17 $183,110 $234,842 Mar-16 $171,500 $210,000 Apr-17 $192,170 $246,555 Apr-16 $186,000 $230,000 May-17 $201,319 $257,479 May-16 $193,000 $233,500 ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE OF THE MEDIAN PRICE Illinois Chicago PMSA Illinois Chicago PMSA Dec % 7.9% Dec % 8.3% Jan % 10.0% Jan % 8.6% Feb % 12.0% Feb % 7.1% Mar % 11.8% Mar % 4.1% Apr % 7.2% Apr % 10.5% May % 10.3% May % 5.7%

7 Housing Forecast March Median Prices and Recovery Illinois Chicago PMSA [$2008] [$2017] [$2008] [$2017] February 2008 Median Price $140,650 $161,448 $184,000 $211,208 February 2017 Median Price $148,100 $170,000 $182,947 $210,000 Price Ratio (February 17/ February 08) Adjusted 1.05 Adjusted 0.99 Unadjusted 1.21 Unadjusted 1.14 Recovery Forecasts using Annually Growth Rates Illinois Chicago PMSA Annual Years to Years to Recovery Rate Recovery Rate* Recover** Recover Current Month 3.4% % 0.1 Past 3 months 3.1% % 0.1 Past 6 months 3.8% % 0.1 Past 9 months 3.9% % 0.1 Past 12 months 4.4% % 0.1 *Annual recovery rate is the average of annual change rates in past months ** Years to recover is calculated using the following formula: Price February2017 *(1+recovery rate)^years=price February2008. Prices used in the formula are inflation adjusted. The recovery rate is applied as a constant annual change rate to recoup the differences between the current month and its corresponding month in 2008.

8 Housing Forecast March

9 Housing Forecast March

10 Housing Forecast March

11 Housing Forecast March

12 Housing Forecast March

13 Housing Forecast March

14 Housing Forecast March

15 Housing Forecast March

16 Housing Forecast March

17 Housing Forecast March

18 Housing Forecast March

19 Housing Forecast March

20 Housing Forecast March

21 Housing Forecast March