CALGARY S ECONOMIC EDGE

Transcription

1 CALGARY S ECONOMIC EDGE creb 213 calgary housing market forecast update June 28, 213 crebforecast.com creb.com

2 CREB 3 Manning Road NE Calgary, Alberta T2E 8K4, Canada Phone: Fax: info@creb.com creb.com crebforecast.com Prepared by: Ann-Marie Lurie, chief economist 213 CREB. All rights reserved. The forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of May CREB

3 contents key points potential impact of flooding 4 economic update 5 global markets 5 united states 6 canada 7 alberta 9 calgary 1 calgary housing market 13 calgary resale market 13 single family 15 condominium 17 summary 19 upside / downside risks 2 sources 21 note: Forecast calculations were made before the floods in Alberta. Overall sales in Calgary are expected to increase by 4.3 per cent. Of that, condominium sales are forecasted to grow by 12 per cent. Single-family price growth 6.3 per cent, condominium apartments 4.8 per cent, and condo townhouse 4. per cent. With a rise in migration, the rental market has become relatively tight encouraging ownership. But mortgage rule changes limited what people could purchase. New listings did not keep pace with demand. As supply levels dropped, the Calgary market entered seller s territory driving higher than expected price growth. With less choice in the lower price category in single family consumers turned to the condominium market and surrounding towns. Single family sales growth will continue to be restricted by the lack of lower priced listings. While price growth has exceed expectations, they will not fall suit to the rises seen the last time we were in a sellers market. 213 calgary housing market forecast update 3

4 potential impact of flooding Calgary and other southern Alberta communities recently experienced flooding that is being described as the worst on record for this part of the province. The economic impact the floods will have on our city and province cannot be estimated until the full extent of the damage is known, but it is likely economic growth will be somewhat slower than previously projected. Smaller businesses, in particular, and the tourism industry will feel the effects. While some industries will benefit from reconstruction work, the economic impact tends to be negative following these types of events. The extent of the damage to homes is not fully known. However, we know that the evacuated communities represent approximately 14 per cent of the city s housing stock, of which approximately 7 units were listed on the resale market before the flood. It is not clear how many homes were damaged and the extent of the damage. Listings are expected to drop in these areas as property owners assess damages and repair costs. With fewer properties in the market, sales activity in the affected areas will also decline. This could, in turn, increase demand in surrounding areas that were not flooded. Before the flooding occurred, Calgary s housing sector was in seller s conditions. And, while the floods will impact the affected communities, overall sales growth for the city is not expected to stall. In 25, the city of Calgary indicated that 4, homes were affected by the flood, but there was no significant change in values. The extent of the damage is expected to be far greater this time, and that will have a greater impact on shortterm pricing. Longer term, many of these communities remain desirable and consumers will continue to weigh the benefits of the locations versus future flood risk. Price growth citywide is also expected to remain in line with current expectations. Any short-term price adjustments for affected neighbourhoods will be outweighed by price growth in the unaffected communities. 4 CREB

5 economic update Global Markets For the first time in several years, elevated economic risks are not dominating the news. Although turmoil in the Euro zone will contribute to slower global growth in this year, fears of dramatic events like a Euro breakup or the U.S. falling off a fiscal cliff have eased. This has restored some stability in the market. However, fiscal adjustment primarily from spending restraints by governments has dampened growth and, as a consequence, economic growth is not expected to surpass expectations. The global economy faces another year of slow growth, with prospects improving by the end of this year and early 214. REAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST European Union China Canada United States World Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Update, April calgary housing market forecast update 5

6 united states As volatility and risks lessen, U.S. corporations with strong balance sheets are starting to take advantage of the low cost of borrowing to finance growth in their businesses. Employment is also growing, although not all of the jobs lost in the recession have been recovered. Domestic demand in the U.S. housing markets has finally begun to rebound from the bottom. Starts, sales of new and existing homes and prices are all increasing after five years of declines. These positive signs are underpinned by improving labour markets, demographic demand and low mortgage rates with improved access to credit (Bank of Canada). Increased investment activity in the U.S. oil and gas sector is expected to drive recovery in non-residential construction. All of these factors support the expansion of the U.S. economy. However, growth will be modest as the economy is weighed down by fiscal consolidation and household deleveraging. U.S. EMPLOYMENT U.S. GDP GROWTH 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% -4% 14,, 138,, 136,, 134,, 132,, 13,, 128,, 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% 2.2% 2.14% FORECAST 3.24% -5% 126,, -3% -6% Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan ,, -4% Employment Growth Y/Y Employed Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Conference Board of Canada Source: US Burea of Economic Analysis Conference Board of Canada Forecast 6 CREB

7 Canada Much of Canada s economic prosperity relies on improvements in the export market and strength in commodities. While the Canadian economy has outperformed most developed economies since the beginning of the financial crisis and recession, growth in 212 eased to 1.8 per cent. This was related in part to weaker commodity prices which affected exports and a weakening national housing sector (Bank of Canada). CANADA PRIME LENDING RATE & CANADA INFLATION Lending Rate % Inflation Rate % Forecasts for this year vary: some anticipate a slight improvement in growth while others see further pullback. No one expects this year to be a breakthrough for economic growth, because of ongoing challenges in the resource sector, a slowing national housing market and concerns over demand from both global and domestic markets. In line with the U.S. economic recovery, Canada s economic growth is expected to gain momentum later this year and in Jan- Jan-1 Jan-2 Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Canada Prime Lending Rate Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Canada Inflation Rate Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan Source: Statistics Canada With modest growth expectations, it is unlikely there will be any significant pressure on inflation levels and interest rates are likely to remain at current levels well into calgary housing market forecast update 7

8 energy Heavy oil producers were challenged in the second half of 212 with rising discounts for their oil, resulting from constraints on distribution. The differential between the Western Canadian Select (WCS) price and the West Texan Intermediate (WTI) price rose from $18 US /bbl in Q4 212 to $32 US /bbl (Baytex Energy Corp). The differential rose from roughly 2 per cent to nearly 34 per cent. While there has always been a discount on the heavy oil price, the impact of the bitumen bubble generated speculation on Alberta s energy sector growth. The price differential has narrowed to more typical levels, as the use of rail helped delivery of inventory stranded by inadequate pipeline capacity. Despite this, oil prices remain highly volatile over issues in transportation and infrastructure. This situation should ease as refineries are converted, rail transport is sustained and pipeline capacity improves. Ongoing oil price uncertainty is affecting the investment market. Investor concerns regarding major pipeline approvals, combined with the rise in light oil production in the U.S. resulted in slower energy investment in the second half of 212 and is forecasted to spill into 213 as firms take a step back to re-evaluate their projects (Bank of Canada). Market access remains the key to long-term economic viability in the energy sector. A positive decision on pipeline improvements, such as the Keystone XL line in the U.S., combined with refinery conversion projects and increased rail transport can support production growth and investment in the latter portion of this year and early 214. Positive momentum on these initiatives will ultimately improve investment growth and trickle into all sectors of the Alberta economy. However, the uncertainty and risk will persist for much of this year, limiting growth prospects. BRENT - WTI - WCS CRUDE OIL PRICE ALBERTA ENERGY INVESTMENT SPENDING US $ / BBL 16 millions ($) 6, FORECAST 14 5, Jan-5 Jun-5 Nov-5 Apr-6 Sep-6 Feb-7 Jul-7 Dec-7 May-8 Oct-8 Mar-9 Aug-9 Jan-1 Jun-1 Nov-1 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Brent Crude Oil Price WTI Crude Oil Price Western Canadian Select Source: Baytex Energy, Statistics Canada 4, 3, 2, 1, Source: Statistics Canada, Conference Board of Canada Forcast CREB

9 alberta Alberta s energy industry remains the all-important driver of economic growth for the province. In 212, real GDP growth in Alberta led the country, at 3.9 per cent. The oil and gas extraction industry was a major contributor, fuelling a rise in full-time employment growth, earnings, migration and consumer spending in 212. With a cautious business investment outlook this year at least until there is more certainty over pipeline expansion and diversified market access energy investment projects may be delayed, dampening economic growth prospects. However, our resource-based economy is expected to thrive in 214, as global economic conditions improve and market access issues are addressed. GDP GROWTH COMPARISONS ALBERTA GDP GROWTH Canada Price Edward Island Newfoundland and Labrador -4.8% 1.8% 1.6% 1.2% 1.3% 3.4% 8% 6% FORECAST Nova Scotia.2% 1.2% 4% New Brunswick Quebec Ontario -.6% 1.2% 1.% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 2% % Manitoba 1.6% 2.7% -2% Saskatchewan 2.2% 2.3% -4% Alberta British Columbia 1.7% 1.6% 2.5% 3.9% -6% (F) Alberta GDP Growth Calgary GDP Growth Source: Statistics Canada, Conference Board of Canada Forecast Source: Statistics Canada, Forecast by TD Economics as at April 4, 213 Basic Prices 213 calgary housing market forecast update 9

10 calgary economy Calgary s housing market enjoyed a revival in 212. The local economy is benefitting from relatively strong economic growth over the past two years. Investment activity translated into fulltime jobs, with an average annual growth of more than five per cent in 212. Furthermore, most of the jobs created were in the higher-paying energy sector. The availability of such positions encouraged migration growth, with moves to the city reaching near record highs. This year, energy investment growth is expected to slow, impacting employment growth. Overall employment growth is forecasted to grow by 1.67 per cent a slower pace than previously expected and much lower than the 3.73 per cent growth recorded in 212. While this does not represent a reversal in overall gains in employment levels, slower growth this year will dampen both migration and housing demand. CITY OF CALGARY NET MIGRATION CALGARY CMA EMPLOYMENT GROWTH 3, 1 Y/Y % Change Average Annual Employed 9, 25, FORECAST 8 FORECAST 85, 2, 15, % 8, 75, 7, 1, 5, -5, Source: City of Calgary Census, City of Calgary Forecast % Change (Y/Y) Total Employment % 65, 1.67% 6, 55, 5, Source: Seasonally adjusted datea, Statistics Canada, Conference Board of Canada Forecast 1 CREB

11 Calgary economy Continued After the first quarter of the year, new housing starts slowed considerably from the first quarter of 212. There was less activity in the multi-family sector, following robust activity in the spring of 212. However, there has been a rise in the number of single family home starts to date this year compared to 212. With fewer resale homes available in Calgary, many consumers have turned to the new home sector. CALGARY CMA NEWLY COMPLETED AND UNOCCUPIED Concerns regarding overbuilding are important as elevated inventories in the new home sector could place downward pressure on resale prices. In Calgary, there has been a recent rise in both new multi-family inventory levels and units under construction. However, multifamily starts are expected to ease this year. With overall starts activity in line with estimates of household formation, inventory levels are not high enough to pose a significant risk of overbuilding and price corrections Jan-1 Jan-2 Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Multi Family Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Source: CMHC 213 calgary housing market forecast update 11

12 Calgary economy Continued The pace of housing starts is expected to ease by the end of the year, as the decline in multi-family starts will outweigh any gains in the single-family. While changes in the economic factors can affect the overall demand for housing, based on economic growth forecasts, projected starts and household formation, an oversupply in Calgary s new home market is not anticipated. CALGARY CMA HOUSING STARTS SINGLE FAMILY CALGARY CMA HOUSING STARTS MULTI FAMILY 12, 1, 8, FORECAST 8, 7, 6, 5, 63% -5% FORECAST -9% 6, 4, 17% -6% 5% 4, 3, 2, 2, 1, Single Family Y/Y% Change Multi Family Y/Y% Change Source: CMHC, Conference Board of Canada Forecast Source: CMHC, Conference Board of Canada Forecast 12 CREB

13 calgary housing market Calgary resale market Calgary s housing market is defying national trends with improving sales activity and strong price growth. Readers should keep in mind that while other Canadian markets were improving postrecession, Calgary s housing sector was underperforming. CALGARY INVENTORY 12, 1, Renewed growth in sales and pricing only started to take hold in 212 following relatively strong economic performance which drove growth in employment, wages and migration. Demand for housing improved as the combination of rising wages, low interest rates, and modest home price increases kept our housing market affordable relative to the national average and Calgary s historical average (RBC). While mortgage rule changes affected what people were buying, it did not cause a reversal of the positive momentum in the city s housing sector. 8, 6, 4, 2, - Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Single Family Condo Apartment Condo Townhouse Jan-12 Jan-13 Year-to-date Calgary residential sales total 9,964, a four per cent increase over the same period in 212. Meanwhile, the levels of new listings have declined, contributing to the double-digit declines in inventory levels. As demand growth outpaced supply within city limits, this pushed Calgary s resale housing market into conditions that favour sellers. Homes are selling faster and benchmark prices have improved on average by seven per cent this year relative to the same period in 212. This is the first time since the mid-2s that conditions have favoured the seller, Source: CREB but consumers should not expect housing market conditions to be as they were in 27. This market has a relatively weaker economic backdrop than 27, and consumers have a variety of housing options, including new homes and units in surrounding areas. 213 calgary housing market forecast update 13

14 calgary resale market Continued While both employment and migration growth is expected to ease this year, previous gains coupled with a tight rental market will support 4.3 per cent growth in the resale housing sector in 213. Sales growth is expected to be at a slower pace than the previous year. However, transaction volumes are within typical long-term levels. CALGARY TOTAL SALES 3, 25, 2, FORECAST 4.3% One limiting factor to home sale growth is the lower inventory levels in the market. Less choice in resale has caused consumers to turn to other options, such as the new home market. While tight supply conditions will push prices up, there are options available in the new home market. This will ensure that price growth in the resale sector will not escalate to levels seen in , 1, 5, SF Sales Apartment Sales TH Sales 1 Year Average Source: CREB 14 CREB

15 single family The single family market was the first sector to move into sellers conditions, and continues to see demand outpace supply. Inventories have been on the decline since April 211, and yearto-date average levels are 16 per cent below already declining figures recorded in 212. There has also been a noticeable shift in availability by price range. Throughout the recessionary period, there were more single-family home options at the lower end of the price spectrum. Now, much of this stock has been absorbed and the decline in inventories is primarily caused by the lack of supply in the lower price range. While overall single family new listings have declined by one per cent this year, the number of new listings priced under $5, has declined by nearly 14 per cent. Meanwhile, there is an 18 per cent gain in properties listed above $5, on a year-to-date basis. CALGARY SINGLE FAMILY NEW LISTINGS BY PRICE RANGE 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % <$2, $2, - $299,999 $3, - $399,999 $4, - $499,999 $5, - $599,999 $6, - $699,999 YTD-21 YTD-211 YTD-212 YTD-213 $7, - $999,999 $1,,+ Source: CREB Year To Date May 213 calgary housing market forecast update 15

16 single family Continued Sellers market conditions have resulted in higher than expected price gains. Year-to-date single-family benchmark, median and average home prices have all increased by nearly eight per cent over the previous year. Furthermore, for the first time since 27, benchmark single family prices have reached a new unadjusted high. While the price gains have brought about some concerns of unsustainable price increases, we anticipate these gains will ease throughout the latter portion of the year. Consumers may turn to the new home sector and many buyers are price-sensitive. Overall 213 single-family home prices are expected to increase by 6.3 per cent on an annual basis relative to last year. While seller s market conditions will likely persist over the next several months, we expect that higher prices will generate a rise in listings, easing some of the supply pressures and pushing the market back into balance. While the improvements in listings will not likely be strong enough to offset the previous declines, sales growth for single family homes are expected to improve by one per cent, slightly lower than the January forecast. Sales growth in the single family market will be limited by availability of lower priced listings; buyers facing tighter mortgage rules may have to turn to lower-priced condominium units or homes in surrounding areas. CALGARY SINGLE FAMILY PRICE CHANGES CALGARY SINGLE FAMILY SALES 7% 6% 5% 5, 45, 4, 2, 18, 45% 5% FORECAST 4% 4% 35, 16, 1.% 3% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% Jan-5 Oct-5 Jul-6 Apr-7 Jan-8 Oct-8 Jul-9 Apr-1 Jan-11 Oct-11 Jul-12 Apr-13 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6% 23 4% 24 9% % 27-4% 28-7% 29 4% 21-1% 211 7% 6% % 1% % -1% Total Average Price change Total Median Price Change Total Benchmark Change Benchmark Price Source: CREB Single Family Sales 1 Year Average Y/Y Price Change Source: CREB CREB Forecast 16 CREB

17 condominium Condominium sales started to grow in 212 and the momentum has continued this year. With less choice in the lower price ranges of single family homes and tighter mortgage rules limiting what consumers could afford, many purchasers have turned to the condominium market. The rise in demand has caused total condominium apartment and townhouse sales to improve by 15 per cent year-todate. While the condominium apartment market was better supplied going into the year, demand has outpaced the number of new listings. This caused inventories to decline by more than 2 per cent, pushing the market into sellers territory. CALGARY CONDOMINIUM APARTMENT MONTHS OF INVENTORY BALANCED Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Source: CREB, 3 month moving average 213 calgary housing market forecast update 17

18 condominium Continued This has supported stronger than expected price gains, with the apartment benchmark price reaching $263,6 in May. However, despite the annual average increase of seven per cent, prices remain 11 per cent below unadjusted benchmark highs. As consumers look for affordable options, condominium sales growth is forecast to increase by 12 per cent this year, outpacing annual sales growth in the single family sector. Condominium apartment and townhouse prices are also expected to increase at a respective annual rate of 4.8 and 4. per cent. Resale prices will be constrained by competition in the new home condominium sector. CALGARY APARTMENT PRICES CALGARY CONDOMINIUM SALES 35, 3, 9, 8, 7, FORECAST 12% 25, 6, 2, 5, 4, 15, 3, 1, 2, 1, 5, Jan-6 Sep-6 May-7 Jan-8 Sep-8 May-9 Jan-1 Sep-1 May-11 Jan-12 Sep-12 May Apartment Average Price Apartment Median Price Apartment Benchmark Price Source: CREB Apartment Sales TH Sales Source: CREB Forecast 18 CREB

19 summary Calgary s economy is well situated to outperform many other Canadian cities, as the resource-based industry finds resolution of transportation and market access issues. Despite short-term risks, overall economic conditions support employment opportunities that will attract migrants and support long-term growth in the Calgary housing market. Given the economic backdrop and no imminent concerns regarding overbuilding in the city, both sales and price gains are expected for the rest of this year. Any short-term price adjustments for neighbourhoods affected by recent flooding will be outweighed by price growth in an affected communities F trend forecaster economic indicators Calgary GDP Growth Conference Board of Canada Calgary Net Migration -4,154 9,563 19,658 14,3 City of Calgary Calgary Employment Growth Conference Board of Canada Housing Starts: Single Family 5,782 5,84 5,961 5,69 Conference Board of Canada Housing Starts: Multiple Family 3,48 4,28 6,88 6,541 Conference Board of Canada mls re-sale homes City of calgary Total Sales 17,218 18,494 21,24 22,111 (4.3%) CREB Total Price Growth ($43,523) CREB Single Family Sales 12,43 13,118 15,15 115,256 (1.%) CREB Single Family Price Growth ($451,465) CREB Condo Apartment Sales 2,993 3,139 3,51 3,737 (6.75%) CREB Condo Apartment Price Growth ($256,751) CREB Condo Townhouse Sales 2,182 2,237 2,598 3,118 (2.%) CREB Condo Townhouse Price Growth ($288,253) CREB * Annual Average Benchmark Price Growth F - Forecast calgary housing market forecast update

20 upside / downside risks upside risks downside risks Stronger than expected growth in the U.S. and global economies. Sharper than expected rebound in Canadian exports. Improved market access for energy exports. combination of resale and new single-family homes with city limits is not enough to satisfy demand. Price growth will be stronger than expected in the city and new developments in surrounding areas will surge. Higher prices could encourage listings growth, resulting in stronger than expected sales growth The European crisis will not be contained with further weakness. Slower external demand or unsupportive commodity prices could weaken business investment. Lengthy regulatory process could delay or halt new pipeline development, impacting employment prospects. New condominium completions could outpace demand, pushing up supply levels and dampening condominium price growth. calgary businesses affected by flooding, impacting employment prospects. If flood damage is severe, it could restrict resale inventory as impacted individuals look for alternative housing. 2 CREB

21 sources Baytex Energy Crop Q1 213 Heavy Oil Pricing Update April 2, 213 RBC Economics Research: Housing Trends and Affordability May 213 RBC Economics Research: Natural Resource-Intensive Provinces Still Lead Growth in 213 March 213 TD Economics Provincial Economic Forecast: Gradual Firming Trend in Place April 4, 213 The Conference Board of Canada Metropolitan Outlook 1: Spring 213 CMHC Housing Market Information: Rental Market Report Calgary CMA Fall 212 Alberta Human Services Calgary & Area Labour Market Report: Fourth Quarter 212 British Columbia Real Estate Association Housing Forecast: Second Quarter May 213 CBRE Canada Market Outlook 213 TD Economics Economic Snapshot: A Bird s Eye View of The Global Economic March 19, 213 International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook April 213 Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report April 213 CMHC Housing Market Information: Housing Now May 213 Economic Outlook Fiscal Plan Budget 213 Alberta Treasury Board and Finance Economic Trends February 213 TD Economics Special Report: Long-Run Rate of Return for Canadian Home Prices March 11, 213 CMHC Housing Market Information: Housing Now January 213 TD Economics Observation: Chinese Economy Will Pull its Weight Amidst Subpar Global Economic Growth March 4, 213 TD Economics Observation: Release of 212 Provincial GDP Confirms Momentum Advantage in the West May 3, 213 CAPP Crude Oil Forecast, Markets & Transportation June 213 TD Economics Special Report: Canadian Regional House Market Outlook June 3, 213 City of Calgary Calgary & Region Economic Outlook Spring calgary housing market forecast update 21

22 CREB 3 Manning Road NE Calgary, Alberta T2E 8K4, Canada Phone: Fax: info@creb.com creb.com crebforecast.com CREB is a professional body of more than 5, licensed brokers and registered associates, representing 277 member offices. CREB is dedicated to enhancing the value, integrity and expertise of its REALTOR members. We are committed to equipping our members with the right tools, services and education to achieve professional excellence and, in turn, enabling REALTORS to offer the best possible service to their clients. Our REALTORS are committed to a high standard of professional conduct, ongoing education, and a strict Code of Ethics and standards of business practice. Using the services of a professional REALTOR can help consumers take full advantage of real estate opportunities while reducing their risks when buying or selling real estate. CREB operates and maintains the Multiple Listing Service (MLS ) System for Calgary and the surrounding area. Through the MLS System, members and, in turn, their clients have immediate access to the latest information on properties listed for sale. Through the MLS System, REALTORS can provide the buying and selling public with the broadest possible market exposure and the most complete and up-to-date market information. Copyright Notice: 213 CREB. All rights reserved. CREB grants reasonable rights of use of this publication s content solely for personal, corporate or public policy research, and educational purposes. This permission consists of the right to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results, conclusions and forecasts, including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication. Reasonable and limited rights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria, and CREB s right to request that such use be discontinued for any reason. Any use of the publication s content must include the source of the information, including statistical data, acknowledged as follows: CREB 213 Economic Outlook and Calgary Regional Housing Market Forecast.