Months of Inventory Trended Months of Inventory Y/Y Price Change
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- Rebecca Hart
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1 August 218
2 Excess inventories weighs on prices in some regions 18 Alberta sales remained relatively stable this month as gains in most of the regions were offset by easing occurring mostly in Calgary. With 5,285 sales in August, levels were comparable to longterm averages for this month. However, the stability over the past two months was not enough to offset previous losses causing year-to-date sales to total 38,482 units, six per cent below last year and 11 per cent below long-term averages. The recent stability in sales and new listings helped prevent further additions to inventory. However, with nearly 38, units in inventory, levels remain high for August figures causing months of supply to remain elevated at seven months. The oversupply in the market has continued to weigh on average prices, which trended down for another month. Year-to-date average prices in Alberta totaled $39,969, nearly three per cent lower than last year. Despite some recent challenges facing the energy sector, the job market does seem to be improving on a provincial basis with unemployment rates edging down to 6.7 per cent. However, when considering the two largest cities, the job market is improving in Edmonton, while job losses continue to occur in the Calgary market. This is one of the contributing factors influencing trends in these housing markets. ALBERTA MONTHS OF SUPPLY AND PRICE CHANGES 14. 5% 12. 4% 1. 3% 8. 2% 6. 1% 4. % 2. -1% % Months of Inventory Trended Months of Inventory Y/Y Price AREA Monthly Statistics 2
3 Alberta Summary Aug-17 Aug-18 Year-over-Year % 217 YTD 218 YTD 18 Total Sales 5,39 5, % 4,81 38, % Total Sales Volume $2,84,972,64 $2,3,495, % $16,49,735,588 $15,45,275, % New Listings 1,44 1,445.5% 86,134 89, % Inventory 33,799 37, % 29,64 33, % Months of Supply % % Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio % % Average Price $392,724 $384,2-2.17% $42,19 $39, % ALBERTA AVERAGE PRICE AND PRICE CHANGE 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% $45, $4, $35, $3, $25, $2, $15, $1, $5, -2% $ Y/Y Trended Price Average Price Trended Average Price SALES AND INVENTORY 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Sales Inventory Trended Sales Trended Inventory AREA Monthly Statistics 3
4 ALBERTA TOTAL RESIDENTIAL SALES 7, 18 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, '8 '9 '1 Calgary Region Edmonton Region Alberta West Central Alberta Fort McMurray Grande Prairie Lethbridge Lolydminster Medicine Hat South Central Alberta 1 Year Average ALBERTA TOTAL RESIDENTIAL NEW LISTINGS 14, '8 '9 '1 Calgary Region Edmonton Region Alberta West Central Alberta Fort McMurray Grande Prairie Lethbridge Lolydminster Medicine Hat South Central Alberta 1 Year Average ALBERTA TOTAL RESIDENTIAL INVENTORY 4, '8 '9 '1 Calgary Region Edmonton Region Alberta West Central Alberta Fort McMurray Grande Prairie Lethbridge Lolydminster Medicine Hat South Central Alberta 1 Year Average AREA Monthly Statistics 4
5 August 218 Sales y/y % change New y/y % Listings change Inventory y/y % change Months y/y % of Supply change Average Price y/y % change Sales to New Listings Share of Sales Activity Alberta West % % 1, % % 359, % % Calgary Region 1, % 3,922.54% 11, % % 466,43 1.8% % Central Alberta % % 4, % % 294, % % Edmonton Region 1, % 3, % 12, % % 371, % % Fort McMurray % % 1, % % 369, % % Grande Prairie % % 1, % % 284, % % Lethbridge % % 1, % % 252, % % Lloydminster % % % % 37, % % Medicine Hat % % % % 267, % % South Central Alberta % % % % 21,6-8.84% % Alberta 5, % 1,445.5% 37, % % 384,2-2.17% 5.6 TOTAL RESIDENTIAL PRICE CHANGE 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% -15% -2% -25% 18 Aug-17 Aug-18 Year-over-year price change MONTHS OF SUPPLY - TOTAL RESIDENTIAL AVERAGE PRICE COMPARISON 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Aug-17 Aug-18 Months of Supply = Total inventory / Sales Aug-17 Aug-18 Months of Supply = Total inventory / Sales AREA Monthly Statistics 5
6 Alberta West Gains in August sales helped offset some of the earlier declines. Overall year-todate sales totaled 784 units, just below last year's levels. While new listings have generally increased this year, recent improvements in sales have helped limit inventory growth and easing the amount of oversupply in the market. With no further gains in the amount of oversupply, the amount of reduction in prices is also starting to ease. Year-to-date average prices remained nearly two per cent below levels recorded last year. Alberta West Aug-17 Aug YTD 218 YTD Total Sales % % Total Sales Volume $38,545,675 $45,98, % $287,874,875 $275,579, % New Listings % 1,867 1,95 2.4% Inventory 1,117 1, % 1,18 1,39 2.3% Months of Supply % % Sales to New Listings Ratio % % Average Price $36,24 $359, % $358,53 $351, % AVERAGE PRICE AND PRICE CHANGE 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% $45, $4, $35, $3, $25, $2, $15, $1, $5, -2% $ Y/Y Trended Y/Y Average Price Trended Price MONTHS OF SUPPLY AND SALES TO NEW LISTINGS RATIO Months of Inventory Trended Months of Inventory Trended S/NL AREA Monthly Statistics 6
7 ALBERTA WEST SALES 16 1,2 YTD , '8 '9 '1 Sales 1-year average ALBERTA WEST NEW LISTINGS ,5 2, 1,5 1, YTD Sales 1-year average YTD '8 '9 '1 New Listings 1-year average YTD New Listings 1-year average ALBERTA WEST INVENTORIES 1,4 1,2 YTD- 1,2 1, 1, '8 '9 '1 Inventory 1-year average YTD Average Invnetory 1-year average AREA Monthly Statistics 7
8 Calgary Region Calgary Region Aug-17 Aug-18 Facing continued challenges in the employment market, housing sales activity declined by 6.5 per cent in August. While the pace of decline has eased from the double digits recorded earlier in the year, overall sales activity remains nearly 14 per cent below last years levels and 19 per cent below longer-term averages. Slower sales activity prevented any meaningful change in the elevated inventory levels. The excess supply has caused prices to generally trend lower this year. Year-to-date average prices remain nearly one per cent lower from last year's levels. 217 YTD 218 YTD Total Sales 2,59 1, % 17,83 14, % Total $Volume $949,369,423 $897,132, % $8,51,294,922 $6,93,697, % New Listings 3,91 3,922.54% 32,244 33, % Inventory 9,42 11, % 8,99 9, % Months of Supply % % S/NL Ratio % % Average Price $461,83 $466,43 1.8% $471,35 $467, % AVERAGE PRICE AND PRICE CHANGE 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% $6, $5, $4, $3, $2, $1, -2% $ Y/Y Trended Y/Y Average Price Trended Price MONTHS OF SUPPLY AND SALES TO NEW LISTINGS RATIO Months of Inventory Trended Months of Inventory Trended S/NL AREA Monthly Statistics 8
9 CALGARY REGION SALES 3,5 3, YTD- 3, 25, 2,5 2, 2, 1,5 1, 15, 1, 5 5, '8 '9 '1 CALGARY REGION NEW LISITNGS 4,5 Sales 1-year average 45, YTD Sales 1-year average YTD- 4, 4, 3,5 35, 3, 3, 2,5 25, 2, 2, 1,5 15, 1, 1, 5 5, '8 '9 ' New Listings 1-year average CALGARY REGION INVENTORY 12, 12, YTD New Listings 1-year average YTD- 1, 1, 8, 8, 6, 6, 4, 4, 2, '8 '9 '1 Inventory 1-year average 2, YTD Average Invnetory 1-year average AREA Monthly Statistics 9
10 Central Alberta Sales activity improved in August causing year-to-date sales to improve by nearly four per cent. While, sales activity remains well below the norm for the region, the gains could reflect a potential transition to a more stable market. Despite some evidence of the start of a transition further gains in new listings and elevated inventories are resulting in a persistent buyer s market. The oversupplied market continues to weigh on housing prices. Year-to-date average prices have eased by nearly six per cent. Central Alberta Aug-17 Aug YTD 218 YTD Total Sales % 2,699 2, % Total $Volume $129,53,76 $126,374, % $846,853,623 $829,73, % New Listings % 7,229 7, % Inventory 4,416 4, % 3,855 4, % Months of Supply % % S/NL Ratio % % Average Price $314,395 $294, % $313,766 $295, % AVERAGE PRICE AND PRICE CHANGE 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% $35, $3, $25, $2, $15, $1, $5, -2% $ Y/Y Trended Y/Y Average Price Trended Price MONTHS OF SUPPLY AND SALES TO NEW LISTINGS RATIO Months of Inventory Trended Months of Inventory Trended S/NL AREA Monthly Statistics 1
11 CENTRAL ALBERTA SALES 6 4,5 YTD- 5 4, 3,5 4 3, 3 2,5 2, 2 1,5 1 1, 5 '8 '9 ' Sales 1-year average CENTRAL ALBERTA NEW LISTINGS 1, '8 '9 '1 CENTRAL ALBERTA INVENTORY 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 New Listings 1-year average '8 '9 '1 Inventory 1-year average 8,5 8, 7,5 7, 6,5 6, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 YTD Sales 1-year average YTD YTD New Listings 1-year average YTD YTD Average Invnetory 1-year average AREA Monthly Statistics 11
12 Edmonton Region While the Edmonton region has not recorded the same magnitude of decline in sales compared to the Calgary region, they have recorded much stronger gains in new listings and have seen their inventories trend higher than last year. The resulting oversupply has weighed on price trends. Year-to-date average prices have eased by nearly two per cent this year over last year. Edmonton Region Aug-17 Aug YTD 218 YTD Total Sales 1,857 1, % 13,927 13, % Total $Volume $78,82,759 $77,255, % $5,34,879,52 $5,1,789,73-4.5% New Listings 3,718 3, % 29,599 31, % Inventory 11,227 12, % 9,739 11, % Months of Supply % % S/NL Ratio % % Average Price $381,35 $371, % $383,491 $376, % AVERAGE PRICE AND PRICE CHANGE 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% $45, $4, $35, $3, $25, $2, $15, $1, $5, -2% $ Y/Y Trended Y/Y Average Price Trended Price MONTHS OF SUPPLY AND SALES TO NEW LISTINGS RATIO Months of Inventory Trended Months of Inventory Trended S/NL AREA Monthly Statistics 12
13 EDMONTON REGION SALES 2,5 18, YTD- 2, 16, 14, 1,5 12, 1, 1, 8, 6, 5 4, '8 '9 '1 EDMONTON REGION NEW LISTINGS 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Sales 1-year average 2, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, YTD Sales 1-year average YTD- '8 '9 '1 EDMONTON REGION INVENTORY 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, New Listings 1-year average 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, YTD New Listings 1-year average YTD- '8 '9 '1 Inventory 1-year average YTD Average Invnetory 1-year average AREA Monthly Statistics 13
14 Fort McMurray Region While far from pre-recession levels, Fort McMurry sales continue to improve as new listings ease, causing inventories to fall from elevated levels. While the amount of oversupply in the market is reducing, market conditions continue to favour the buyer and are weighing on prices. Year-to-date average prices have eased by nearly nine per cent so far this year and reman 38 per cent below year-to-date highs. With so much of the economy impacted by the energy sector, it should not come as a surprise that the region was the hardest hit by the energy driven recession a few years ago. Fort McMurray Region Aug-17 Aug YTD 218 YTD Total Sales % % Total $Volume $39,244,363 $43,67, % $328,46,719 $345,484, % New Listings % 2,255 1, % Inventory 1,23 1, % 1, % Months of Supply % % S/NL Ratio % % Average Price $413,99 $369, % $431,546 $393, % AVERAGE PRICE AND PRICE CHANGE 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% $7, $6, $5, $4, $3, $2, $1, $ Y/Y Trended Y/Y Average Price Trended Price MONTHS OF SUPPLY AND SALES TO NEW LISTINGS RATIO Months of Inventory Trended Months of Inventory Trended S/NL AREA Monthly Statistics 14
15 FORT MCMURRAY SALES '8 '9 '1 FORT MCMURRAY NEW LISTINGS Sales 1-year average 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, , 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 YTD YTD Sales 1-year average YTD- '8 '9 '1 FORT MCMURRAY INVENTORY 1,4 1,2 1, New Listings 1-year average 1,4 1,2 1, YTD New Listings 1-year average YTD- '8 '9 ' Inventory 1-year average YTD Average Invnetory 1-year average AREA Monthly Statistics 15
16 Grande Prairie Region This region continues to move towards recovery. Sales activity totaled 1,896 units so far this year, a 22 per cent increase over last year and nearly 16 per cent above longterm averages. At the same time new listings continue to ease causing inventories to decline and pushing the months of supply down to levels not seen for a couple of years. Improving conditions have supported some price recovery in the market. However, it has not been enough to erase the impact of the declines felt over the past two years. Overall year-to-date prices improved by 1.5 per cent compared to last year but remain nearly seven per cent below levels recorded during the recent high. Grande Prairie Aug-17 Aug YTD 218 YTD Total Sales % 1,55 1, % Total $Volume $69,796,468 $77,568, % $461,576,171 $573,29, % New Listings % 4,154 3, % Inventory 2,47 1, % 1,88 1, % Months of Supply % % S/NL Ratio % % Average Price $293,262 $284, % $297,791 $32, % AVERAGE PRICE AND PRICE CHANGE 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% -15% $35, $3, $25, $2, $15, $1, $5, $ Y/Y Trended Y/Y Average Price Trended Price MONTHS OF SUPPLY AND SALES TO NEW LISTINGS RATIO Months of Inventory Trended Months of Inventory Trended S/NL AREA Monthly Statistics 16
17 GRANDE PRAIRIE SALES 3 2,5 YTD- 25 2, 2 1, , 5 5 '8 '9 ' Sales 1-year average GRANDE PRAIRIE NEW LISTINGS '8 '9 '1 GRANDE PRAIRIE INVENTORY 2,5 New Listings 1-year average 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 2,5 YTD Sales 1-year average YTD YTD New Listings 1-year average YTD- 2, 2, 1,5 1,5 1, 1, 5 5 '8 '9 '1 Inventory 1-year average YTD Average Invnetory 1-year average AREA Monthly Statistics 17
18 Lethbridge Sales activity in the area have remained relatively stable in the area, remaining consistent with longer term trends. However, inventories have been on the rise causing the amount of supply relative to demand to rise throughout most of this year. The oversupply has been placing downward pressures on prices, as yearto-date average prices have eased by nearly four per cent compared to 217 levels. Lethbridge Aug-17 Aug YTD 218 YTD Total Sales % 1,83 1, % Total $Volume $71,542,75 $63,741,59-1.9% $495,627,22 $462,421,28-6.7% New Listings % 3,563 3, % Inventory 1,393 1, % 1,26 1, % Months of Supply % % S/NL Ratio % % Average Price $279,461 $252, % $27,835 $26, % AVERAGE PRICE AND PRICE CHANGE 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% $3, $25, $2, $15, $1, $5, -2% $ Y/Y Trended Y/Y Average Price Trended Price MONTHS OF SUPPLY AND SALES TO NEW LISTINGS RATIO Months of Inventory Trended Months of Inventory Trended S/NL AREA Monthly Statistics 18
19 LETHBRIDGE SALES 3 2, YTD- 25 1,8 1,6 2 1,4 15 1,2 1, '8 '9 ' Sales 1-year average LETHBRIDGE NEW LISTINGS '8 '9 '1 New Listings 1-year average LETHBRIDGE INVENTORY 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, '8 '9 '1 Inventory 1-year average 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, YTD Sales 1-year average YTD YTD New Listings 1-year average YTD Average Invnetory YTD- 1-year average AREA Monthly Statistics 19
20 Lloydminster (Alberta side) Sales activity on the Alberta side of Lloydminster haver remained well below normal levels of activity while new listings have been on the rise resulting in elevated inventories and an oversupplied housing market. The oversupply has weighed on home prices for the area. By the end of August, average prices were $294,967 in the region, nearly six per cent below levels recorded last year. Lloydminster Aug-17 Aug YTD 218 YTD Total Sales % % Total $Volume $19,326,783 $14,781, % $125,647,622 $117,397,4-6.57% New Listings % 1,262 1, % Inventory % % Months of Supply % % S/NL Ratio % % Average Price $311,722 $37, % $313,336 $294, % AVERAGE PRICE AND PRICE CHANGE 6% $4, 5% $35, 4% $3, 3% 2% $25, 1% $2, % $15, -1% $1, -2% -3% $5, -4% $ Y/Y Trended Y/Y Average Price Trended Price MONTHS OF SUPPLY AND SALES TO NEW LISTINGS RATIO Months of Inventory Trended Months of Inventory Trended S/NL AREA Monthly Statistics 2
21 LLOYDMINSTER SALES 12 8 YTD '8 '9 ' Sales 1-year average LLOYDMINSTER NEW LISTINGS ,4 1,2 1, YTD Sales 1-year average YTD- '8 '9 '1 LLOYDMINSTER INVENTORY New Listings 1-year average '8 '9 '1 Inventory 1-year average YTD New Listings 1-year average YTD YTD Average Invnetory 1-year average AREA Monthly Statistics 21
22 Medicine Hat Sales activity in the area have been declining for the better part of the year, totaling 884 sales by the end of August, a 1 per cent decline over the previous year. Listings have been rising causing gains in inventory levels and months of supply to push above six months. However, Medicine Hat remains one of the few Alberta regions with a year-todate average month of supply that is consistent with its long-term levels. While the rise in the amount of supply compared to sales have limited price growth, overall year-to-date average prices in Medicine Hat remain two per cent above last year's levels. Medicine Hat Aug-17 Aug YTD 218 YTD Total Sales % % Total $Volume $33,475,363 $32,596,3-2.63% $265,794,594 $244,592, % New Listings % 1,672 1, % Inventory % % Months of Supply % % S/NL Ratio % % Average Price $263,586 $267, % $27,391 $276, % AVERAGE PRICE AND PRICE CHANGE 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% -15% -2% $35, $3, $25, $2, $15, $1, $5, $ Y/Y Trended Y/Y Average Price Trended Price MONTHS OF SUPPLY AND SALES TO NEW LISTINGS RATIO Months of Inventory Trended Months of Inventory Trended S/NL AREA Monthly Statistics 22
23 MEDICINE HAT SALES 18 1,4 YTD ,2 1, '8 '9 ' Sales 1-year average YTD Sales 1-year average MEDICINE HAT NEW LISTINGS 35 3, YTD ,5 2, 1,5 1 1, 5 5 '8 '9 ' New Listings MEDICINE HAT INVENTORY YTD New Listings 1, 9 YTD '8 '9 ' Inventory 1-year average YTD Average Invnetory AREA Monthly Statistics 23
24 South Central Alberta Region Like many other areas, slower than normal sales this year combined with stronger-than-average new listings and inventories are causing persistent oversupply in the area. This has started to weigh on prices, which on a year-to-date basis have eased by one per cent compared to last year. South Central Alberta Aug-17 Aug YTD 218 YTD Total Sales % % Total $Volume $8,316,75 $7,371, % $55,747,85 $5,976, % New Listings % % Inventory % % Months of Supply % % S/NL Ratio % % Average Price $231,21 $21,6-8.84% $22,719 $2,693-1.% AVERAGE PRICE AND PRICE CHANGE 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% $3, $25, $2, $15, $1, $5, -6% $ Y/Y Trended Y/Y Average Price Trended Price MONTHS OF SUPPLY AND SALES TO NEW LISTINGS RATIO Months of Inventory Trended Months of Inventory Trended S/NL AREA Monthly Statistics 24
25 SOUTH CENTRAL ALBERTA SALES 7 45 YTD '8 '9 '1 SOUTH CENTRAL ALBERTA NEW LISTINGS Sales 1-year average 1, YTD Sales 1-year average YTD '8 '9 ' New Listings 1-year average SOUTH CENTRAL ALBERTA INVENTORY YTD New Listings 1-year average YTD- '8 '9 ' Inventory 1-year average YTD Average Invnetory 1-year average AREA Monthly Statistics 25
26 REPORTING REGIONS * Data is collected and reported by each board, then aggregated by the Canadian Real Estate Association. Detailed information regarding how the data is aggregated should be directed to either the Specific Board or CREA. The average price information listed can be useful in establishing trends over time, but do not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods, or account for price differentials between geographical area Comments communications@albertarealtor.ca ABOUT AREA The AREA represents more than 1, REALTORS and 1 real estate Boards/Associations province-wide and provides worldclass leadership that positively shapes the Alberta real estate profession, enhances member professionalism, and reinforces the critical value REALTORS deliver to both buyers and sellers. Board & Association Information The Grande Prairie & Area Association of REALTORS represents more than 24 REALTORS located in Grande Prairie and across the Peace Region. All MLS listings processed by the Board can be found on the national public web site The Fort McMurray REALTORS are a member service organization made up of approximately 2 real estate members consisting of Brokers, Associate Brokers and Associates. The Board also has 12 Affiliate members providing support and service to the real estate industry. Our trading area includes the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo and the Lac LaBiche County. For more information please go to Alberta West REALTORS Association represents 174 real estate industry professionals in various communities throughout West Central Alberta. For more information please go to The REALTORS Association of Edmonton is a professional services association comprised of over 3,2 Brokers and Associates serving the greater Edmonton area. For more information please go to The REALTORS of Lloydminster and District is comprised of approximately 1 REALTORS located in offices in Lloydminster as well as the surrounding communities of Wainwright and VermilionFor more information please go to The Central Alberta REALTORS Association is a professional trade organization, whose members are licensed Real Estate professionals. Our membership currently includes more than 65 real estate brokers and agents working across Central Alberta. For more information please go to The Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB ) is a professional association of over 5,2 licensed REALTORS across the Calgary region. As one of the largest real estate boards in Canada, CREB provides members with essential resources to enhance professionalism, advance the industry s development and enrich the communities they serve. For more information please go to The Lethbridge and District Association of REALTORS is a member service organization made up of 294 real estate members consisting of Brokers, Associate Brokers and Associates. The Board also has 39 Contract Subscribers who are Appraisers, Home Inspectors, Builders, and Mortgage Brokers. For more information please go to The Medicine Hat Real Estate Board was chartered in 1955 and serves the 14 local REALTORS, in eleven brokerages, which provide real estate brokerage services to buyers and sellers of all types of property - residential, commercial, industrial and farm/ranch. For more information please go to AREA Monthly Statistics 26
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