Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo and Guelph CMAs

Transcription

1 H o u s i n g M a r k e t I n f o r m a t i o n Housing Now Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo and Guelph CMAs C a n a d a M o r t g a g e a n d H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n Date Released: Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo CMA Highlights Starts higher for all housing types in 2014 Existing home sales higher Average resale price up from last year Table of Contents First Quarter Kitchener-Cambridge- Waterloo CMA Highlights 2 Kitchener-Cambridge- Waterloo New Home Market 3 Kitchener-Cambridge- Waterloo Resale Home Market 4 Guelph CMA Highlights 4 Guelph New Home Market Figure 1 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo CMA Housing Starts 0 Dec 2012 Dec 2013 Dec 2014 Housing Starts, SAAR* Housing Starts Trend Line (6-month moving average)** Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) * SAAR 1 : Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. 5,490 4,685 1 All starts figures in this report, other than actual starts and the trend estimate, are seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) that is, monthly figures adjusted to remove normal seasonal variation and multiplied by 12 to reflect annual levels. By removing seasonal ups and downs, seasonal adjustment allows for a comparison from one season to the next and from one month to the next. Reporting monthly figures at annual rates indicates the annual level of starts that would be obtained if the monthly pace was maintained for 12 months. This facilitates comparison of the current pace of activity to annual forecasts as well as to historical annual levels. The trend is the six month moving average of the monthly SAAR for housing starts. 5 Guelph Resale Home Market 6 Housing Boom along LRT Corridor in Kitchener and Waterloo 7 Maps 13 Tables Subscribe Now! Access CMHC s Market Analysis Centre publications quickly and conveniently on the Order Desk at View, print, download or subscribe to get market information ed to you on the day it is released. CMHC s electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free. Housing market intelligence you can count on

2 New Home Market Housing starts in the Kitchener- Cambridge-Waterloo Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) (hereafter referred to as KCW) were trending at 5,490 units in December, up from 5,151 in November, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts. The trend increased due to the very strong level of apartment starts, as well as higher single-detached starts. Again this quarter, the story was the very strong level of apartment starts. Apartment starts are highly volatile, however, for a third straight quarter, more than 800 apartment units were started in KCW. In the fourth quarter, 1,107 apartment units were started, the highest level for any quarter since The majority of the apartment starts were condominiums, with several projects commencing construction in both the cities of Kitchener and Waterloo. The apartment projects started were a mix of high-rise and low-rise buildings. More than half of the units started were in projects selling their units as an investment property with the potential to rent to students and young professionals. The strength in apartment starts reflects the strong demand for apartment accommodation from students, immigrants, young households and seniors. Developers were responding, not only to the higher demand from households, but also the planning initiatives which encourage higherdensity housing and the future demand from LRT riders. For 2014, builders started 3,057 apartments, the highest annual level of apartment starts ever in KCW. Figure 2 Actual Starts Highest Starts for Any Quarter Since ,600 1,400 Apartments Row Semi-detached Single 1,200 1, Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) Total housing starts in both the fourth quarter and annually were boosted by the strong level of apartment starts. In the fourth quarter, 1,422 units were started, of which, 78 per cent were apartments. For 2014, housing starts reached 4,450 more than doubling from 2013 and the highest level of starts since However, 2013 starts were below demographic demand and some of the increase in starts in 2014 is due to pent-up demand. While apartment construction has been trending higher since the late 1990s, single-detached construction peaked in and has been trending lower since then. With the surge in apartment construction in 2014, only 20 per cent of housing starts were single-detached homes. Government initiatives and the changing demographics of the population are drivers of this shift to higher-density housing. More couple households without children and oneperson households mean stronger demand for apartments. Single-detached starts, although only a fifth of new construction, increased by 25 per cent in A tight resale market meant increased spill-over into the new home market. As single-detached new home prices increased over the last few years, affordability became an issue for many homebuyers. Builders have responded to the demand for more moderately priced homes. The average price of a newly completed single-detached home for 2014 was $455,683, down by 5.4 per cent from Prices were lower in all CMA municipalities except Woolwich. Prices were 5.8 per cent lower in the City of Waterloo, the most expensive market in the CMA, 8.2 per cent lower in the City of Kitchener and 6.1 per cent lower in the City of Cambridge. Townhouse and semi-detached starts are also higher this year. These housing types are a more affordable option than single-detached homes for households wanting their own front door. Townhouse starts increased by slightly more than 50 per cent this year. 2

3 Resale Home Market Sales pulled back slightly in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter as expected. The slightly weaker sales in the fourth quarter through the Kitchener-Waterloo Association of Realtors followed a very strong third quarter as the traditional spring market was pushed into the summer months. After adjusting for seasonal variation, sales in the fourth quarter were 3.3 per cent lower than in the third quarter. Despite the end-of-year easing slow-down, sales in the fourth quarter of 2014 were 11.1 per cent higher than in the fourth quarter of 2013.Low mortgage rates, higher employment and migration have supported the demand for existing homes. The strong spring and summer rebound following the slow start for sales in early 2014 meant existing homes sales reached 6,646 for the year, up 2.8 per cent from Sales increased for single-detached homes, townhomes and condominium apartments, but declined for semidetached homes. Employment has been trending higher since the second quarter of 2014 which has supported the housing markets. Employment increased by 1.2 per cent in 2014, which translated into 3,500 more jobs. The labour force increased at a slower rate of 0.5 per cent resulting in a drop in the unemployment rate to 6.2 per cent from 6.9 per cent in While employment in the goods-producing sector increased in 2014, employment Figure 3 MLS Sales* 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 KW Sales and Prices Decline in Fourth Quarter 2, in the services sector declined slightly. Supporting the growth in the goodsproducing sector was job growth in construction and manufacturing. Strong U.S. economic growth and the lower Canadian dollar have stimulated growth in the goods-producing sector. Fewer jobs in the education, health and professional, scientific and technical sectors pulled the services sector employment lower. While employment declined in the age group, employment in the and age groups increased, supporting both first-time buyer and repeat buyer demand. The average price of a resale home in the fourth quarter of 2014 grew by 5.2 per cent compared to the Sales Avg. Price $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 Source: CMHC, adapted from CREA (MLS ) Note: Sales are seasonally adjusted and are multiplied by 4 to show an annual rate. Prices are seasonally adjusted. MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). Avg. MLS Price ($000) fourth quarter of However following seasonal adjustment, the average price in the fourth quarter of 2014 was marginally lower than in the third quarter. This was the second consecutive quarter in which the average price declined. A higher percentage of homes were sold below $250,000 in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter. A higher percentage of first-time buyers have been active in the market in the last few months. For 2014, the average price of a resale home increased by 4.1 per cent to $337,806 from $324,604 a year earlier. 3

4 Guelph CMA Highlights Figure 4 Guelph CMA Housing Starts Total starts higher in 2014 Existing home sales higher Average resale price up from last year New Home Market Housing starts in the Guelph CMA were trending at 1,705 in December, down from 1,729 in November, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts. The trend moved down due to lower levels of starts for all housing types. However, the trend remained elevated due to the high level of apartment starts in July and August. Starts of all dwelling types, except townhouses, were lower in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter after adjusting for regular seasonal variation. However, the absence of apartment starts in the fourth quarter was the main reason for lower starts. After recording 612 apartment starts in the third quarter, no apartments were started in the fourth quarter. Apartment starts in Guelph are highly volatile and the high level recorded in the third quarter was unsustainable. For 2014, total housing starts reached 1,064, an increase of 20 per cent from With a tight resale market favouring sellers in Guelph, there was more spill-over demand to the new home market. Apartment starts increased by 50 per cent as developers responded to higher demand and the City of Guelph s downtown secondary plan which supports intensification. Demand for apartments has been 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,705 1,500 1, Dec 2012 Dec 2013 Dec 2014 Housing Starts, SAAR* Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) * SAAR 1 : Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. supported by students, young adult households, immigrants and downsizing seniors. Starts for singledetached homes increased marginally Housing Starts Trend Line (6-month moving average)** 1 All starts figures in this report, other than actual starts and the trend estimate, are seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) that is, monthly figures adjusted to remove normal seasonal variation and multiplied by 12 to reflect annual levels. By removing seasonal ups and downs, seasonal adjustment allows for a comparison from one season to the next and from one month to the next. Reporting monthly figures at annual rates indicates the annual level of starts that would be obtained if the monthly pace was maintained for 12 months. This facilitates comparison of the current pace of activity to annual forecasts as well as to historical annual levels. The trend is the six month moving average of the monthly SAAR for housing starts. Figure 5 Actual Starts in 2014, while starts for semidetached and townhouses declined from Starts of ground-oriented housing remains constrained by No Apartment Starts in Fourth Quarter 800 Apartments 700 Row 600 Semi-detached 500 Single Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) 4

5 the low number of residential units registered by the City of Guelph in Figure 6 Guelph Sales Increase, but Prices Decline in Fourth Quarter The average price of newly completed single-detached homes increased to $543,674 in the fourth quarter, up 12.4 per cent from the same quarter last year. For 2014, the single-detached average price was $526,385, up 15.0 per cent as significantly more homes priced above $400,000 are being completed. The strong increase in price was due to the price of homes completed in Puslinch where prices more than doubled to $1,049,494. The average price in the City of Guelph was $465,130, an increase of only two per cent from Resale Home Market Sales trended higher throughout Homes sold through the Guelph and District Association of Realtors in the fourth quarter after adjusting for seasonal variation increased by 4.1 per cent from the third quarter. Fourth quarter sales in 2014 were 7.2 per cent higher than in the same quarter of For 2014, annual sales reached 3,295, up 4.1 per cent from Despite a slow start to 2014, sales in 2014 set a new record. Strong employment growth, in-migration and low mortgage rates supported housing demand. Guelph is attractive to people working in the western MLS Sales* 4,000 3,000 2,000 Sales parts of the GTA because housing prices are lower. Since April, Guelph employment has been trending higher. Employment increased by 4.2 per cent or 3,100 jobs in Increased employment has supported the growth in sales. The labour force increased by 3.4 per cent resulting in a decline of the unemployment rate to 6.4 per cent. Employment in both the goods-producing and services sector increased supported by strong growth in the trade, manufacturing, accommodation and professional, scientific and technical sectors. Avg. Price 1, $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 Source: CMHC, adapted from CREA (MLS ) Note: Sales are seasonally adjusted and are multiplied by 4 to show an annual rate. Prices are seasonally adjusted. MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). Avg. MLS Price ($000) Employment grew in the and age groups, but declined for the age group. Sales in 2014 increased at a faster pace than listings. The resale market remained tight and continued to favour sellers. As a result, price growth was above the rate of inflation. The average price of resale home in the fourth quarter of 2014 was 4.5 per cent higher than in the same quarter in On an annual basis, the average price of a resale home in 2014 increased 4.4 per cent to nearly $360,000. 5

6 Housing Boom along LRT Corridor in Kitchener and Waterloo According to the Region of Waterloo, beginning in 2017, ION, the official name of Waterloo Region s Light Rail Transit (LRT), will limit urban sprawl, protect farmland and move people throughout the community. However, developers and builders are not waiting for the completion of the LRT. Residential development is already occurring along the LRT corridor 2. In the latest three years, , total starts in the LRT corridor were up 19.4% from the previous seven ( ). A closer look at construction along the LRT corridor indicates that the number of apartment starts in this area increased even more. Between 2012 and 2014 Figure 7 more than 3,000 apartment units were started, compared to over 2,300 in the previous seven years. The LRT makes higher-density 2,500 residential more attractive to potential home-buyers, and fits 2,000 into the Region s long-term plans to limit urban sprawl. 1,500 The rental apartments constructed along the LRT corridor have been geared mainly to the university student population, which has been expanding over the last few years. However, in the last three years there has been a shift to more condominium apartments. Apartment Starts 1, Source: CMHC Starts & Completions Survey More than 60 per cent of apartment starts were condominiums, compared to just 13 per cent between 2005 and The condominium apartments under construction are being sold to a variety of households, including young professionals, and investors. With the completion of ION still more than two years away, more development along the LRT corridor is expected. Most of the land, especially close to the LRT stations, has already been purchased by developers, however, not all land is currently under development and more residential development is expected over the next several years. Housing Boom along LRT Corridor Rental Condo The LRT corridor in the cities of Kitchener and Waterloo is defined as the area covered by Census Tracts 3-6, 10-13, 16-18, 20, 21, 100, 102, 103,

7 HIGHWAY 24 Housing Now - Kitchener and Guelph CMAs - Date Released - First Quarter 2015 Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo & Guelph CMAs Number of Starts (Multiples) N HIGHWAY 6 Guelph/Eramosa QUEEN ST Woolwich Woolwich Guelph City YORK RD VICTORIA ST N HANLON PKY Waterloo City HIGHWAY 401 Puslinch HIGHWAY 6 HIGHWAY 7 & 8 Kitchener City Cambridge City North Dumfries HIGHWAY 8 Legend No starts starts starts starts Km 7

8 HIGHWAY 24 Housing Now - Kitchener and Guelph CMAs - Date Released - First Quarter 2015 Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo & Guelph CMAs Number of Starts (Singles) N HIGHWAY 6 Guelph/Eramosa QUEEN ST Woolwich Woolwich Guelph City YORK RD VICTORIA ST N HANLON PKY Waterloo City HIGHWAY 401 Puslinch HIGHWAY 6 HIGHWAY 7 & 8 Kitchener City Cambridge City North Dumfries HIGHWAY 8 Legend 4-41 starts starts starts Km 8

9 HIGHWAY 24 Housing Now - Kitchener and Guelph CMAs - Date Released - First Quarter 2015 Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo & Guelph CMAs Total Number of Starts N HIGHWAY 6 Guelph/Eramosa QUEEN ST Woolwich Woolwich Guelph City YORK RD VICTORIA ST N HANLON PKY Waterloo City HIGHWAY 401 Puslinch HIGHWAY 6 HIGHWAY 7 & 8 Kitchener City Cambridge City North Dumfries HIGHWAY 8 Legend starts starts starts Km 9

10 HIGHWAY 24 Housing Now - Kitchener and Guelph CMAs - Date Released - First Quarter 2015 Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo & Guelph CMAs Number of Starts (Multiples) January - December 2014 N HIGHWAY 6 Guelph/Eramosa QUEEN ST Woolwich Woolwich Guelph City YORK RD VICTORIA ST N HANLON PKY Waterloo City HIGHWAY 401 Puslinch HIGHWAY 6 HIGHWAY 7 & 8 Kitchener City Cambridge City North Dumfries HIGHWAY 8 Legend No starts starts 535-1,060 starts 1,061-1,586 starts Km 10

11 HIGHWAY 24 Housing Now - Kitchener and Guelph CMAs - Date Released - First Quarter 2015 Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo & Guelph CMAs Number of Starts (Singles) January - December 2014 N HIGHWAY 6 Guelph/Eramosa QUEEN ST Woolwich Woolwich Guelph City YORK RD VICTORIA ST N HANLON PKY Waterloo City HIGHWAY 401 Puslinch HIGHWAY 6 HIGHWAY 7 & 8 Kitchener City Cambridge City North Dumfries HIGHWAY 8 Legend starts starts starts Km 11

12 HIGHWAY 24 Housing Now - Kitchener and Guelph CMAs - Date Released - First Quarter 2015 Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo & Guelph CMAs Total Number of Starts January - December 2014 N HIGHWAY 6 Guelph/Eramosa QUEEN ST Woolwich Woolwich Guelph City YORK RD VICTORIA ST N HANLON PKY Waterloo City HIGHWAY 401 Puslinch HIGHWAY 6 HIGHWAY 7 & 8 Kitchener City Cambridge City North Dumfries HIGHWAY 8 Legend starts 699-1,370 starts 1,371-2,042 starts Km 12

13 HOUSING NOW REPORT TABLES Available in ALL reports: 1 Housing Starts (SAAR and Trend) 1.1 Housing Activity Summary of CMA 2 Starts by Submarket and by Dwelling Type Current Month or Quarter 2.1 Starts by Submarket and by Dwelling Type Year-to-Date 3 Completions by Submarket and by Dwelling Type Current Month or Quarter 3.1 Completions by Submarket and by Dwelling Type Year-to-Date 4 Absorbed Single-Detached Units by Price Range 5 MLS Residential Activity 6 Economic Indicators Available in SELECTED Reports: 1.3 History of Housing Activity (once a year) 2.2 Starts by Submarket, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market Current Month or Quarter 2.3 Starts by Submarket, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market Year-to-Date 2.4 Starts by Submarket and by Intended Market Current Month or Quarter 2.5 Starts by Submarket and by Intended Market Year-to-Date 3.2 Completions by Submarket, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market Current Month or Quarter 3.3 Completions by Submarket, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market Year-to-Date 3.4 Completions by Submarket and by Intended Market Current Month or Quarter 3.5 Completions by Submarket and by Intended Market Year-to-Date 4.1 Average Price ($) of Absorbed Single-Detached Units SYMBOLS n/a Not applicable * Totals may not add up due to co-operatives and unknown market types ** Percent change > 200% - Nil -- Amount too small to be expressed SA Monthly figures are adjusted to remove normal seasonal variation 13

14 Table 1: Housing Starts (SAAR and Trend) Kitchener CMA 1 Annual Monthly SAAR Trend Oct Nov Dec Oct Nov Dec Single-Detached , ,069 1,058 Multiples 2,029 1,150 2,604 8,028 3,924 2,832 4,082 4,432 Total 2,900 1,840 3,549 9,230 4,685 3,804 5,151 5,490 Quarterly SAAR Actual YTD 2014 Q Q Q Q4 % change 2013 Q Q4 % change Single-Detached 1, % % Multiples 4,012 4, , % 1,150 3, % Total 5,160 5, , % 1,840 4, % Table 1: Housing Starts (SAAR and Trend) Guelph CMA 1 Annual Monthly SAAR Trend Oct Nov Dec Oct Nov Dec Single-Detached Multiples ,540 1,506 1,498 Total ,769 1,729 1,705 Quarterly SAAR Actual YTD 2014 Q Q Q Q4 % change 2013 Q Q4 % change Single-Detached % % Multiples 2, % % Total 2, % 890 1, % Source: CMHC 1 Census Metropolitan Area 2 The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) Detailed data available upon request Detailed data available upon request 14

15 Table 1.1a: Housing Activity Summary of Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo CMA Ownership Rental Freehold Condominium Single Semi Row, Apt. & Other Single Row and Semi Apt. & Other Single, Semi, and Row STARTS Q , ,422 Q % Change n/a ** ** Year-to-date , ,079 4,450 Year-to-date ,840 % Change ** UNDER CONSTRUCTION Q , ,747 4,722 Q ,293 2,483 % Change ** COMPLETIONS Q Q % Change n/a 31.9 ** Year-to-date ,208 Year-to-date ,054 % Change n/a COMPLETED & NOT ABSORBED Q n/a n/a 209 Q n/a n/a 158 % Change n/a n/a n/a 32.3 ABSORBED Q n/a n/a 394 Q n/a n/a 329 % Change n/a n/a n/a 19.8 Year-to-date n/a n/a 1,539 Year-to-date n/a n/a 1,245 % Change n/a n/a n/a 23.6 Apt. & Other Total* Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey, Market Absorption Survey) 15

16 Table 1.1b: Housing Activity Summary of Guelph CMA Ownership Single Freehold Semi Row, Apt. & Other Single Condominium Row and Semi Apt. & Other Single, Semi, and Row STARTS Q Q % Change n/a n/a n/a Year-to-date ,064 Year-to-date % Change ** ** 19.6 UNDER CONSTRUCTION Q ,235 Q % Change ** n/a ** 33.8 COMPLETIONS Q Q % Change n/a n/a Year-to-date Year-to-date % Change COMPLETED & NOT ABSORBED Q n/a n/a 32 Q n/a n/a 28 % Change n/a n/a n/a n/a 14.3 ABSORBED Q n/a n/a 135 Q n/a n/a 165 % Change n/a n/a Year-to-date n/a n/a 668 Year-to-date n/a n/a 653 % Change n/a n/a 2.3 Rental Apt. & Other Total* Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey, Market Absorption Survey) 16

17 Table 1.2: Housing Activity Summary by Submarket Ownership Single Freehold Semi Row, Apt. & Other Single Condominium Row and Semi Apt. & Other Single, Semi, and Row STARTS Kitchener City Q Q Cambridge City Q Q North Dumfries Q Q Waterloo City Q Q Woolwich Q Q Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo CMA Q , ,422 Q Guelph City Q Q Guelph/Eramosa Q Q Puslinch Q Q Guelph CMA Q Q Rental Apt. & Other Total* Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey, Market Absorption Survey) 17

18 Table 1.2: Housing Activity Summary by Submarket Ownership Single Freehold Semi Row, Apt. & Other Single Condominium Row and Semi Apt. & Other Single, Semi, and Row UNDER CONSTRUCTION Kitchener City Q ,963 Q Cambridge City Q Q North Dumfries Q Q Waterloo City Q , ,200 Q ,312 Woolwich Q Q Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo CMA Q , ,747 4,722 Q ,293 2,483 Guelph City Q ,196 Q Guelph/Eramosa Q Q Puslinch Q Q Guelph CMA Q ,235 Q Rental Apt. & Other Total* Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey, Market Absorption Survey) 18

19 Table 1.2: Housing Activity Summary by Submarket Ownership Single Freehold Semi Row, Apt. & Other Single Condominium Row and Semi Apt. & Other Single, Semi, and Row COMPLETIONS Kitchener City Q Q Cambridge City Q Q North Dumfries Q Q Waterloo City Q Q Woolwich Q Q Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo CMA Q Q Guelph City Q Q Guelph/Eramosa Q Q Puslinch Q Q Guelph CMA Q Q Rental Apt. & Other Total* Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey, Market Absorption Survey) 19

20 Table 1.2: Housing Activity Summary by Submarket Ownership Single Freehold Semi Row, Apt. & Other Single Condominium Row and Semi Apt. & Other Single, Semi, and Row COMPLETED & NOT ABSORBED Kitchener City Q n/a n/a 131 Q n/a n/a 85 Cambridge City Q n/a n/a 22 Q n/a n/a 18 North Dumfries Q n/a n/a 4 Q n/a n/a 1 Waterloo City Q n/a n/a 49 Q n/a n/a 48 Woolwich Q n/a n/a 3 Q n/a n/a 6 Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo CMA Q n/a n/a 209 Q n/a n/a 158 Guelph City Q n/a n/a 26 Q n/a n/a 24 Guelph/Eramosa Q n/a n/a 5 Q n/a n/a 4 Puslinch Q n/a n/a 1 Q n/a n/a 0 Guelph CMA Q n/a n/a 32 Q n/a n/a 28 Rental Apt. & Other Total* Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey, Market Absorption Survey) 20

21 Table 1.2: Housing Activity Summary by Submarket Ownership Single Freehold Semi Row, Apt. & Other Single Condominium Row and Semi Apt. & Other Single, Semi, and Row ABSORBED Kitchener City Q n/a n/a 224 Q n/a n/a 179 Cambridge City Q n/a n/a 78 Q n/a n/a 70 North Dumfries Q n/a n/a 11 Q n/a n/a 9 Waterloo City Q n/a n/a 68 Q n/a n/a 49 Woolwich Q n/a n/a 13 Q n/a n/a 22 Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo CMA Q n/a n/a 394 Q n/a n/a 329 Guelph City Q n/a n/a 113 Q n/a n/a 153 Guelph/Eramosa Q n/a n/a 12 Q n/a n/a 8 Puslinch Q n/a n/a 10 Q n/a n/a 4 Guelph CMA Q n/a n/a 135 Q n/a n/a 165 Rental Apt. & Other Total* Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey, Market Absorption Survey) 21

22 Single Table 1.3a: History of Housing Starts Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo CMA Ownership Freehold Semi Row, Apt. & Other Single Condominium Row and Semi Apt. & Other Single, Semi, and Row , ,079 4,450 % Change ** ,840 % Change n/a ,900 % Change n/a , ,954 % Change , ,815 % Change n/a , ,298 % Change ** , ,634 % Change n/a ** , ,740 % Change n/a ** n/a , ,599 % Change n/a , ,763 Rental Apt. & Other Total* Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) 22

23 Single Table 1.3b: History of Housing Starts Freehold Semi Guelph CMA Ownership Row, Apt. & Other Single Condominium Row and Semi Apt. & Other Single, Semi, and Row ,064 % Change ** ** % Change n/a ** % Change % Change n/a ** ,021 % Change ** ** n/a n/a % Change n/a ,087 % Change n/a 26.9 ** n/a n/a % Change n/a n/a % Change n/a n/a Rental Apt. & Other Total* Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) 23

24 Table 2: Starts by Submarket and by Dwelling Type Single Semi Row Apt. & Other Total Submarket % Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Change Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo , , ** Kitchener City Cambridge City North Dumfries Waterloo City ** Woolwich ** Guelph CMA Guelph City Guelph/Eramosa Puslinch Submarket Table 2.1: Starts by Submarket and by Dwelling Type January - December 2014 YTD 2014 Single Semi Row Apt. & Other Total YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 % Change Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo , ,450 1, Kitchener City Cambridge City North Dumfries Waterloo City ** Woolwich Guelph CMA , Guelph City Guelph/Eramosa Puslinch Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) 24

25 Submarket Table 2.2: Starts by Submarket, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market Freehold and Condominium Row Rental Freehold and Condominium Apt. & Other Rental Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo , Kitchener City Cambridge City North Dumfries Waterloo City Woolwich Guelph CMA Guelph City Guelph/Eramosa Puslinch Submarket Table 2.3: Starts by Submarket, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market January - December 2014 Freehold and Condominium Row Rental Freehold and Condominium Apt. & Other Rental YTD 2014 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo , , Kitchener City Cambridge City North Dumfries Waterloo City , Woolwich Guelph CMA Guelph City Guelph/Eramosa Puslinch Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) 25

26 Submarket Table 2.4: Starts by Submarket and by Intended Market Freehold Condominium Rental Total* Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo , , Kitchener City Cambridge City North Dumfries Waterloo City Woolwich Guelph CMA Guelph City Guelph/Eramosa Puslinch Submarket Table 2.5: Starts by Submarket and by Intended Market January - December 2014 Freehold Condominium Rental Total* YTD 2014 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo 1, , , ,450 1,840 Kitchener City , Cambridge City North Dumfries Waterloo City , , Woolwich Guelph CMA , Guelph City Guelph/Eramosa Puslinch Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) 26

27 Table 3: Completions by Submarket and by Dwelling Type Single Semi Row Apt. & Other Total Submarket % Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Change Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo Kitchener City Cambridge City North Dumfries Waterloo City ** Woolwich Guelph CMA Guelph City Guelph/Eramosa Puslinch Submarket Table 3.1: Completions by Submarket and by Dwelling Type January - December 2014 YTD 2014 Single Semi Row Apt. & Other Total YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 % Change Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo Kitchener City Cambridge City North Dumfries Waterloo City Woolwich Guelph CMA Guelph City Guelph/Eramosa Puslinch Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) 27

28 Table 3.2: Completions by Submarket, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market Submarket Freehold and Condominium Row Rental Freehold and Condominium Apt. & Other Rental Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo Kitchener City Cambridge City North Dumfries Waterloo City Woolwich Guelph CMA Guelph City Guelph/Eramosa Puslinch Table 3.3: Completions by Submarket, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market January - December 2014 Submarket Freehold and Condominium Row Rental Freehold and Condominium Apt. & Other Rental YTD 2014 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo Kitchener City Cambridge City North Dumfries Waterloo City Woolwich Guelph CMA Guelph City Guelph/Eramosa Puslinch Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) 28

29 Submarket Table 3.4: Completions by Submarket and by Intended Market Freehold Condominium Rental Total* Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo Kitchener City Cambridge City North Dumfries Waterloo City Woolwich Guelph CMA Guelph City Guelph/Eramosa Puslinch Submarket Table 3.5: Completions by Submarket and by Intended Market January - December 2014 Freehold Condominium Rental Total* YTD 2014 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo 1, ,208 2,054 Kitchener City Cambridge City North Dumfries Waterloo City Woolwich Guelph CMA Guelph City Guelph/Eramosa Puslinch Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) 29

30 Submarket Table 4a: Absorbed Single-Detached Units by Price Range Price Ranges < $300,000 Units Share (%) $300,000 - $349,999 Share Units (%) $350,000 - $399,999 Share Units (%) $400,000 - $449,999 Share Units (%) $450,000 + Median Average Total Price ($) Price ($) Share Units (%) Kitchener City Q , ,844 Q , ,301 Year-to-date , ,975 Year-to-date , ,782 Cambridge City Q , ,939 Q , ,146 Year-to-date , ,800 Year-to-date , ,626 North Dumfries Q Q Year-to-date , ,835 Year-to-date , ,534 Waterloo City Q , ,371 Q , ,138 Year-to-date , ,486 Year-to-date , ,528 Woolwich Q , ,116 Q , ,116 Year-to-date , ,604 Year-to-date , ,908 Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo CMA Q , ,887 Q , ,422 Year-to-date , ,683 Year-to-date , ,687 Source: CMHC (Market Absorption Survey) 30

31 Submarket Table 4b: Absorbed Single-Detached Units by Price Range < $300,000 Units Share (%) $300,000 - $349,999 Share Units (%) Price Ranges $350,000 - $399,999 Share Units (%) $400,000 - $449,999 Share Units (%) $450,000 + Guelph City Q , ,374 Q , ,162 Year-to-date , ,130 Year-to-date , ,366 Guelph/Eramosa Q Q Year-to-date , ,591 Year-to-date Puslinch Q Q Year-to-date ,130,000 1,049,494 Year-to-date , ,000 Guelph CMA Q , ,674 Q , ,743 Year-to-date , ,385 Year-to-date , ,859 Units Share (%) Total Median Price ($) Average Price ($) Source: CMHC (Market Absorption Survey) 31

32 Table 4.1: Average Price ($) of Absorbed Single-detached Units Submarket Q Q % Change YTD 2014 YTD 2013 % Change Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo 439, , , , Kitchener City 426, , , , Cambridge City 437, , , , North Dumfries n/a 422, , Waterloo City 505, , , , Woolwich 432, , , , Guelph CMA 543, , , , Guelph City 489, , , , Guelph/Eramosa n/a 555, n/a Puslinch n/a 1,049, , Source: CMHC (Market Absorption Survey) 32

33 Table 5a: MLS Residential Activity for Kitchener Number of Sales 1 Yr/Yr 2 (%) Sales SA 1 Number of New Listings 1 New Listings SA 1 Sales-to- New Listings SA 2 Average Price 1 ($) Yr/Yr 2 (%) Average Price 1 ($) SA 2013 January , , ,071 February , ,293 March , ,990 April , , ,286 May , , ,665 June , , ,156 July , , ,463 August , ,401 September , , ,162 October , ,987 November , ,859 December , , January , , ,864 February , ,635 March , ,470 April , , ,957 May ,351 1, , ,203 June , , ,536 July , , ,647 August , ,848 September , , ,917 October ,032 1, , ,989 November , ,445 December , ,440 Q , , , Q , , , YTD , , , YTD , , , MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). 1 Source: CREA 2 Source: CMHC, adapted from MLS data supplied by CREA 33

34 Table 5b: MLS Residential Activity for Guelph Number of Sales 1 Yr/Yr 2 (%) Sales SA 1 Number of New Listings 1 New Listings SA 1 Sales-to- New Listings SA 2 Average Price 1 ($) Yr/Yr 2 (%) Average Price 1 ($) SA 2013 January , ,899 February , ,709 March , ,114 April , ,022 May , ,733 June , ,475 July , ,551 August , ,843 September , ,996 October , ,802 November , ,925 December , , January , ,763 February , ,566 March , ,408 April , ,841 May , ,429 June , ,801 July , ,505 August , ,806 September , ,446 October , ,973 November , ,479 December , ,451 Q , Q , YTD , , , YTD , , , MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). 1 Source: CREA 2 Source: CMHC, adapted from MLS data supplied by CREA 34

35 Table 5c: MLS Residential Activity for Cambridge Number of Sales 1 Yr/Yr 2 (%) Sales SA 1 Number of New Listings 1 New Listings SA 1 Sales-to- New Listings SA 2 Average Price 1 ($) Yr/Yr 2 (%) Average Price 1 ($) SA 2013 January , ,342 February , ,211 March , ,030 April , ,825 May , ,673 June , ,140 July , ,288 August , ,797 September , ,651 October , ,274 November , ,892 December , , January , ,036 February , ,379 March , ,131 April , ,870 May , ,634 June , ,561 July , ,138 August , ,818 September , ,997 October , ,607 November , ,016 December , ,385 Q , , Q , YTD , , , YTD , , , MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). 1 Source: CREA 2 Source: CMHC, adapted from MLS data supplied by CREA 35

36 P & I Per $100,000 Table 6a: Economic Indicators Interest Rates NHPI, Total, Mortage Rates Kitchener- CPI, 2002 (%) Cambridge- =100 Waterloo (Ontario) 1 Yr. 5 Yr. CMA Term Term 2007=100 Employment SA (,000) Kitchener Labour Market Unemployment Rate (%) SA Participation Rate (%) SA Average Weekly Earnings ($) 2013 January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December "P & I" means Principal and Interest (assumes $100,000 mortgage amortized over 25 years using current 5 year interest rate) "NHPI" means New Housing Price Index "CPI" means Consumer Price Index "SA" means Seasonally Adjusted Source: CMHC, adapted from Statistics Canada (CANSIM), Statistics Canada (CANSIM) 36

37 Table 6b: Economic Indicators Interest Rates Guelph Labour Market NHPI, CPI, 2002 Mortgage Rates Total, P & I =100 Average (%) Ontario Employment Unemployment Participation Per (Ontario) Weekly 1 Yr. 5 Yr. 2007=100 SA (,000) Rate (%) SA Rate (%) SA $100,000 Earnings ($) Term Term 2013 January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December "P & I" means Principal and Interest (assumes $100,000 mortgage amortized over 25 years using current 5 year interest rate) "NHPI" means New Housing Price Index "CPI" means Consumer Price Index "SA" means Seasonally Adjusted Source: CMHC, adapted from Statistics Canada (CANSIM), Statistics Canada (CANSIM) 37

38 Methodology Starts & Completions Survey Methodology The Starts and Completions Survey is conducted by way of site visits which are used to confirm that new units have reached set stages in the construction process. Since most municipalities in the country issue building permits, these are used as an indication of where construction is likely to take place. In areas where there are no permits, reliance has to be placed either on local sources or searching procedures. The Starts and Completions Survey is carried out monthly in urban areas with population in excess of 50,000, as defined by the 2011 Census. In urban areas with populations of 10,000 to 49,999, all Starts are enumerated in the last month of the quarter (i.e. four times a year, in March, June, September and December). In these centres with quarterly enumeration, Completion activity is modeled based on historical patterns. Monthly Starts and Completions activity in these quarterly locations are statistically estimated at a provincial level for single and multi categories. Centres with populations below 10,000 are enumerated on a sample basis, also in the last month of each quarter (i.e. four times a year, in March, June, September and December). The Starts and Completions Survey enumerates dwelling units in new structures only, designed for non-transient and year-round occupancy. Mobile homes are included in the surveys. A mobile home is a type of manufactured house that is completely assembled in a factory and then moved to a foundation before it is occupied. Trailers or any other movable dwelling (the larger often referred to as a mobile home) with no permanent foundation are excluded from the survey. Conversions and/or alterations within an existing structure are excluded from the surveys as are seasonal dwellings, such as: summer cottages, hunting and ski cabins, trailers and boat houses; and hostel accommodations, such as: hospitals, nursing homes, penal institutions, convents, monasteries, military and industrial camps, and collective types of accommodation such as: hotels, clubs, and lodging homes. Market Absorption Survey Methodology The Market Absorption Survey is carried out in conjunction with the Starts and Completions Survey in urban areas with populations in excess of 50,000. When a structure is recorded as completed, an update is also made as units are sold or rented. The dwellings are then enumerated each month until such time as full absorption occurs. STARTS AND COMPLETIONS SURVEY AND MARKET ABSORPTION SURVEY DEFINITIONS A dwelling unit, for purposes of the Starts and Completions Survey, is defined as a structurally separate set of self-contained living premises with a private entrance from outside the building or from a common hall, lobby, or stairway inside the building. Such an entrance must be one that can be used without passing through another separate dwelling unit. A start, for purposes of the Starts and Completions Survey, is defined as the beginning of construction work on a building, usually when the concrete has been poured for the whole of the footing around the structure, or an equivalent stage where a basement will not be part of the structure. The number of units under construction as at the end of the period shown, takes into account certain adjustments which are necessary for various reasons. For example, after a start on a dwelling has commenced construction may cease, or a structure, when completed, may contain more or fewer dwelling units than were reported at start. A completion, for purposes of the Starts and Completions Survey, is defined as the stage at which all the proposed construction work on a dwelling unit has been performed, although under some circumstances a dwelling may be counted as completed where up to 10 per cent of the proposed work remains to be done. The term absorbed means that a housing unit is no longer on the market (i.e. has been sold or rented). This usually happens when a binding contract is secured by a non-refundable deposit and has been signed by a qualified purchaser. The purpose of the Market Absorption Survey is to measure the rate at which units are sold or rented after they are completed, as well as collect prices. 38

39 DWELLING TYPES: A Single-Detached dwelling (also referred to as Single ) is a building containing only one dwelling unit, which is completely separated on all sides from any other dwelling or structure. Includes link homes, where two units may share a common basement wall but are separated above grade. Also includes cluster-single developments. A Semi-Detached (Double) dwelling (also referred to as Semi ) is one of two dwellings located side-by-side in a building, adjoining no other structure and separated by a common or party wall extending from ground to roof. A Row (Townhouse) dwelling is a one family dwelling unit in a row of three or more attached dwellings separated by a common or party wall extending from ground to roof. The term Apartment and other includes all dwellings other than those described above, including structures commonly known as stacked townhouses, duplexes, triplexes, double duplexes and row duplexes. Intended market: The intended market is the tenure in which the unit is being marketed. This includes the following categories: Freehold: A residence where the owner owns the dwelling and lot outright. Condominium (including Strata-Titled): An individual dwelling which is privately owned, but where the building and/or the land are collectively owned by all dwelling unit owners. A condominium is a form of ownership rather than a type of house. Rental: Dwelling constructed for rental purposes regardless of who finances the structure. Geographical terms: A census metropolitan area (CMA) or a census agglomeration (CA) is formed by one or more adjacent municipalities centred on a large urban area (known as the urban core). The census population count of the urban core is at least 10,000 to form a census agglomeration and at least 100,000 to form a census metropolitan area. To be included in the CMA or CA, other adjacent municipalities must have a high degree on integration with the central urban area, as measured by commuting flows derived from census place of work data. CMAs and CAs contain whole municipalities or Census Subdivisions. A Rural area, for the purposes of this publication, is a centre with a population less than 10,000. All data presented in this publication is based on Statistics Canada s 2006 Census area definitions. 39

40 CMHC Home to Canadians (CMHC) has been Canada's national housing agency for more than 65 years. Together with other housing stakeholders, we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in the world. We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country. For more information, visit our website at or follow us on Twitter, YouTube and Flickr. You can also reach us by phone at or by fax at Outside Canada call or fax to supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for people with disabilities. If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats, call The Market Analysis Centre s (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHC s website. You can view, print, download or subscribe to future editions and get market information ed automatically to you the same day it is released. It s quick and convenient! Go to For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you, visit us today at To subscribe to priced, printed editions of MAC publications, call All rights reserved. CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publication s content solely for personal, corporate or public policy research, and educational purposes. This permission consists of the right to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results, conclusions, and forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication. Reasonable and limited rights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria, and CMHC s right to request that such use be discontinued for any reason. Any use of the publication s content must include the source of the information, including statistical data, acknowledged as follows: Source: CMHC (or Adapted from CMHC, if appropriate), name of product, year and date of publication issue. Other than as outlined above, the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or, if acquired by an organization, to users outside the organization. Placing the publication, in whole or part, on a website accessible to the public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted. To use the content of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above or to request permission to reproduce large portions of, or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications, please contact: the Canadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chic@cmhc.ca; or For permission, please provide CHIC with the following information: Publication s name, year and date of issue. Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into any other language without the prior written permission of. The information, analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable, but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The information, analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations for which or any of its employees shall incur responsibility. 40

41 Housing market intelligence you can count on FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE n Canadian Housing Statistics n Condominium Owners Report n Housing Information Monthly n Housing Market Outlook, Canada n Housing Market Outlook, Highlight Reports Canada and Regional n Housing Market Outlook, Major Centres n Housing Market Tables: Selected South Central Ontario Centres n Housing Now, Canada n Housing Now, Major Centres n Housing Now, Regional n Monthly Housing Statistics n Northern Housing Outlook Report n Preliminary Housing Start Data n Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports n Rental Market Reports, Major Centres n Rental Market Statistics n Residential Construction Digest, Prairie Centres n Seniors Housing Reports CMHC s Market Analysis Centre e-reports provide a wealth of detailed local, provincial, regional and national market information. Forecasts and Analysis Future-oriented information about local, regional and national housing trends. Statistics and Data Information on current housing market activities starts, rents, vacancy rates and much more. Get the market intelligence you need today! Click to view, download or subscribe. HOUSING MARKET INFORMATION PORTAL The housing data you want, the way you want it Information in one central location. Quick and easy access. Neighbourhood level data. cmhc.ca/hmiportal