The Canadian Real Estate Association News Release

Transcription

1 The Canadian Real Estate Association News Release Canadian home sales rebound in January Ottawa, ON, February 16, 2016 According to statistics 1 released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales rebounded in January 2016 compared to the previous month. Highlights: National home sales edged up by 0.5% from December to January. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was up 8% compared to January The number of newly listed homes retreated by 4.9% from December to January. The Canadian housing market has tightened but remains balanced overall. The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) rose 7.7% in January. The national average sale price rose 17% on a basis in January; however, excluding British Columbia and Ontario, it edged down 0.3%. The number of homes trading hands via MLS Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations edged up by 0.5 percent in January 2016 compared to December of last year. The increase lifted national sales activity to the highest level since late 2009 (Chart A). Chart A The number of local housing markets was almost equally split between those where sales were up from the month before, and those where sales were down. Monthly sales increases in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Lower Mainland of British Columbia fuelled the national sales increase and offset sales declines in Calgary, Edmonton and the Okanagan Region. * Data table available to media upon request, for purposes of reprinting only. Single family home buyers in the GTA and Lower Mainland of British Columbia had been expected to bring forward their purchase decisions before tightened mortgage regulations take effect in February 2016, said CREA President Pauline Aunger. If listings in these and nearby markets were not in such short supply, January sales activity would likely have reached even greater heights. Meanwhile, other major urban housing markets have an ample supply of listings, particularly where some home buyers have become increasingly cautious amid an uncertain job market outlook. All real estate is local, and REALTORS remain your best source for information about sales and listings where you live or might like to in the future. January 2016 picked up where 2015 left off, with single family homes in the GTA and Greater Vancouver in short supply amid strong demand standing in contrast to sidelined home buyers and ample supply in a number of Alberta housing markets, said Gregory Klump, CREA s Chief Economist. Tighter mortgage 1 All figures in this release except price measures are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise noted. Removing normal seasonal variations enables meaningful analysis of s and fundamental trends. The trademarks MLS, Multiple Listing Service and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA. 1

2 regulations that take effect in February may shrink the pool of prospective home buyers who qualify for mortgage financing and cause national sales activity to ease in the months ahead. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity rose eight percent on a basis in January 2016 and stood 2.6 percent above the 10-year average for the month of January. Activity was up compared to January 2015 among roughly two-thirds of all local markets. B.C. s Lower Mainland and the GTA again contributed most to the national increase. The number of newly listed homes fell by 4.9 percent in January compared to December which more than reversed gains that were posted in the final two months of Canada s largest urban housing markets contributed to the decline in new listings, including the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, Calgary, Edmonton, the GTA, Hamilton-Burlington, Ottawa and Montreal. The national sales-to-new listings ratio rose to 59.2 percent in January due to the drop in the new supply of listings, January's reading was the ratio's highest since November A sales-to-new listings ratio between 40 and 60 percent is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings below and above this range indicating buyers and sellers markets respectively. The ratio was within this range in about 45 percent of all local housing markets in January. A little over one-third of all local housing markets recorded a ratio above 60 percent; as in recent months, virtually all these housing markets are located in British Columbia and Ontario. Chart B The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents the number of months it would take to completely liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity. There were 5.3 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of January 2016, down from 5.4 months at the end of last year and the lowest level in nearly six * Data table available to media upon request, for purposes of reprinting only. years. The national figure is being pulled lower by increasingly tighter housing markets in B.C. and Ontario. This is particularly true in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, the GTA and Hamilton-Burlington, where months of inventory are currently sitting at or below two months. The Aggregate Composite MLS HPI rose by 7.73 percent on a basis in January the largest gain in more than five years. Year-over-year price growth accelerated for two-storey single family homes and apartment units. (Chart B) The trademarks MLS, Multiple Listing Service and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA. 2

3 Two-storey single family homes continue to post the biggest price gains (+9.97 percent), followed by one-storey single family homes (+6.86 percent), townhouse/row units (+6.46 percent) and apartment units (+5.16 percent). Year-over-year price growth continued to range widely among housing markets tracked by the index. Greater Vancouver ( percent) and the Fraser Valley ( percent) posted the largest gains, followed by Greater Toronto ( percent). Home prices in Victoria posted a gain of just over seven percent while Vancouver Island home prices rose by five-and-a-half percent. By contrast, home prices retreated by about three percent on a basis in Calgary, by about two percent in Saskatoon, and by less than one percent in Regina. While home prices have begun to decline in Calgary and Saskatoon only fairly recently, they have been trending lower in Regina since early Prices crept higher on a basis in Ottawa (+1.10 percent), rose modestly in Greater Montreal (+1.48 percent) and strengthened further in Greater Moncton (+6.57 percent). (Table 1) The MLS Home Price Index (MLS HPI) provides a better gauge of price trends than is possible using averages because it is not affected by s in the mix of sales activity the way that average price is. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in January 2016 was $470,297, up 17.0 percent on a basis. The national average price continues to be pulled upward by sales activity in Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, which are among Canada s most active and expensive housing markets. If these two housing markets are excluded from calculations, the average is a more modest $338,392 and the gain is reduced to eight percent. Even then, the gain reflects a tug of war between strong average price gains in housing markets around the GTA and the Lower Mainland of British Columbia versus flat or declining average prices elsewhere in Canada. If British Columbia and Ontario are excluded from calculations, the average price slips even lower to $286,911, representing small a decline of 0.3 percent. The trademarks MLS, Multiple Listing Service and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA. 3

4 Table 1 Composite HPI: January 2016 MLS Home Price Index Benchmark Price 1 month ago 3 months ago Percentage Change vs. 6 months ago 12 months ago 3 years ago 5 years ago Aggregate $512, Lower Mainland $681, Greater Vancouver $775, Fraser Valley $505, Vancouver Island $318, Victoria $458, Calgary $444, Regina $281, Saskatoon $303, Greater Toronto $578, Ottawa $328, Greater Montreal $302, Greater Moncton $159, Interactive tables and charts for MLS Home Price Index data on Composite, Single family homes (including separate indices for one- and two-storey homes), Townhouse/row units, and Apartment units are available at Data table available to media upon request, for purposes of reprinting only. PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national sales information from MLS Systems from the previous month CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types. MLS Systems are co-operative marketing systems used only by Canada s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 109,000 REALTORS working through some 90 real estate Boards and Associations. Further information can be found at For more information, please contact: Pierre Leduc, Media Relations The Canadian Real Estate Association Tel.: or pleduc@crea.ca The trademarks MLS, Multiple Listing Service and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA. 4

5 National Charts Chart 1 Chart 2 Chart 3 Chart 4 Chart 5 Chart 6 The trademarks MLS, Multiple Listing Service and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA. 5

6 MLS Home Price Index The trademarks MLS, Multiple Listing Service and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA. 6

7 The trademarks MLS, Multiple Listing Service and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA. 7

8 MLS Home Price Index The trademarks MLS, Multiple Listing Service and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA. 8

9 The trademarks MLS, Multiple Listing Service and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA. 9

10 Dollar Volume over MLS Systems of Select Canadian Real Estate Boards & Associations January 2016 Dollar Volume* s.a. 2 nsa 3 s.a. 2 nsa 3 Fraser Valley 1, , , , Greater Vancouver 4, , , , , , , , Victoria Calgary Edmonton Regina Saskatoon Winnipeg Hamilton-Burlington Kitchener-Waterloo London and St Thomas Niagara Region Ottawa Sudbury Thunder Bay Greater Toronto 5, , , , , , , , Windsor-Essex Trois Rivières CMA Montreal CMA 1, , , , Gatineau CMA Quebec CMA Saguenay CMA Sherbrooke CMA Saint John Halifax-Dartmouth Newfoundland & Labrador Canada 21, , , , , , , , * in millions of dollars Detailed data for the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) market area can be found at 1 Total = + Non-residential 2 Seasonally adjusted 3 Not seasonally adjusted Note: Due to revisions to geographical coverage, statistics for the Kitchener-Waterloo region from 2000 forward are not directly comparable with its statistics for previous years. Note: Due to s in local market boundaries and data collection in the province of Quebec, local market and provincial totals for Quebec and Canada after 2000 are not directly comparable with earlier years. Note: Due to a in data collection methodology, s.a. and nsa data for Kitchener Waterloo and Halifax Dartmouth (and some other markets not included in the above table) have been revised back to January The interplay of local and provincial data influences in the seasonal adjustment process also necessitated revision back to January 2001 for all s.a. data for local markets in the province of Ontario. Source: The Canadian Real Estate Association

11 Sales Activity over MLS Systems of Select Canadian Real Estate Boards & Associations January 2016 Sales Activity s.a. 2 nsa 3 s.a. 2 nsa 3 Fraser Valley 2,317 2, , ,238 2, , Greater Vancouver 4,393 4, ,626 2, ,335 4, ,574 1, Victoria Calgary 1,803 1, ,049 1, ,699 1, ,002 1, Edmonton 1,496 1, ,318 1, Regina Saskatoon Winnipeg 1,145 1, ,071 1, Hamilton-Burlington 1,338 1, ,277 1, Kitchener-Waterloo London and St Thomas Niagara Region Ottawa 1,268 1, ,231 1, Sudbury Thunder Bay Greater Toronto 8,835 8, ,672 4, ,936 8, ,672 4, Windsor-Essex Trois Rivières CMA Montreal CMA 3,472 3, ,245 2, ,345 3, ,153 1, Gatineau CMA Quebec CMA Saguenay CMA Sherbrooke CMA Saint John Halifax-Dartmouth Newfoundland & Labrador Canada 46,622 46, ,762 24, ,916 43, ,901 23, Detailed data for the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) market area can be found at 1 Total = + Non-residential 2 Seasonally adjusted 3 Not seasonally adjusted Note: Due to revisions to geographical coverage, statistics for the Kitchener-Waterloo region from 2000 forward are not directly comparable with its statistics for previous years. Note: Due to s in local market boundaries and data collection in the province of Quebec, local market and provincial totals for Quebec and Canada after 2000 are not directly comparable with earlier years. Note: Due to a in data collection methodology, s.a. and nsa data for Kitchener Waterloo and Halifax Dartmouth (and some other markets not included in the above table) have been revised back to January The interplay of local and provincial data influences in the seasonal adjustment process also necessitated revision back to January 2001 for all s.a. data for local markets in the province of Ontario. Source: The Canadian Real Estate Association

12 New Listings over MLS Systems of Select Canadian Real Estate Boards & Associations January 2016 New Listings s.a. 2 nsa 3 s.a. 2 nsa 3 Fraser Valley 2,577 2, ,510 2, ,317 2, ,266 2, Greater Vancouver 5,035 5, ,782 5, ,750 5, ,570 4, Victoria 1,042 1, , Calgary 4,218 4, ,854 4, ,833 4, ,496 4, Edmonton 3,672 3, ,079 3, ,193 3, ,667 2, Regina Saskatoon 1,224 1, , ,147 1, , Winnipeg 2,144 2, ,519 1, ,935 1, ,333 1, Hamilton-Burlington 1,602 1, ,249 1, ,452 1, ,111 1, Kitchener-Waterloo , London and St Thomas 1,608 1, ,313 1, ,367 1, ,091 1, Niagara Region Ottawa 2,710 2, ,974 2, ,598 2, ,869 2, Sudbury Thunder Bay Greater Toronto 13,196 13, ,957 9, ,201 13, ,957 9, Windsor-Essex Trois Rivières CMA Montreal CMA 6,855 7, ,986 8, ,448 6, ,627 7, Gatineau CMA Quebec CMA 1,329 1, ,464 1, ,197 1, ,349 1, Saguenay CMA Sherbrooke CMA Saint John Halifax-Dartmouth , Newfoundland & Labrador 1,204 1, ,096 1, Canada 83,664 87, ,769 77, ,168 78, ,011 68, Detailed data for the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) market area can be found at 1 Total = + Non-residential 2 Seasonally adjusted 3 Not seasonally adjusted Note: Due to revisions to geographical coverage, statistics for the Kitchener-Waterloo region from 2000 forward are not directly comparable with its statistics for previous years. Note: Due to s in local market boundaries and data collection in the province of Quebec, local market and provincial totals for Quebec and Canada after 2000 are not directly comparable with earlier years. Note: Due to a in data collection methodology, s.a. and nsa data for Kitchener Waterloo and Halifax Dartmouth (and some other markets not included in the above table) have been revised back to January The interplay of local and provincial data influences in the seasonal adjustment process also necessitated revision back to January 2001 for all s.a. data for local markets in the province of Ontario. Source: The Canadian Real Estate Association

13 Average Sale Price over MLS Systems of Select Canadian Real Estate Boards & Associations January 2016 Average Price* s.a. 2 nsa 3 s.a. 2 nsa 3 Fraser Valley 679, , , , , , , , Greater Vancouver 1,052,613 1,004, ,078, , ,056,934 1,008, ,083, , Victoria 527, , , , , , , , Calgary 455, , , , , , , , Edmonton 348, , , , , , , , Regina 347, , , , , , , , Saskatoon 362, , , , , , , , Winnipeg 270, , , , , , , , Hamilton-Burlington 456, , , , , , , , Kitchener-Waterloo 322, , , , , , , , London and St Thomas 289, , , , , , , , Niagara Region 260, , , , , , , , Ottawa 361, , , , , , , , Sudbury 228, , , , , , , , Thunder Bay 195, , , , , , , , Greater Toronto 655, , , , , , , , Windsor-Essex 225, , , , , , , , Trois Rivières CMA 166, , n/a n/a - 162, , , , Montreal CMA 367, , n/a n/a - 347, , , , Gatineau CMA 247, , n/a n/a - 246, , , , Quebec CMA 251, , n/a n/a - 249, , , , Saguenay CMA 179, , n/a n/a - 183, , , , Sherbrooke CMA 241, , n/a n/a - 231, , , , Saint John 156, , , , , , , , Halifax-Dartmouth 266, , , , , , , , Newfoundland & Labrador 247, , , , , , , , Canada 470, , , , , , , , * Weighted residential average prices for Quebec (provided by Québec Federation of Real Estate Boards); does not affect weighted and unweighted national average price calculations. Information on Quebec's weighted average price calculation can be found at: Detailed data for the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) market area can be found at 1 Total = + Non-residential 2 Seasonally adjusted 3 Not seasonally adjusted Note: Due to revisions to geographical coverage, statistics for the Kitchener-Waterloo region from 2000 forward are not directly comparable with its statistics for previous years. Note: Due to s in local market boundaries and data collection in the province of Quebec, local market and provincial totals for Quebec and Canada after 2000 are not directly comparable with earlier years. Note: Due to a in data collection methodology, s.a. and nsa data for Kitchener Waterloo and Halifax Dartmouth (and some other markets not included in the above table) have been revised back to January The interplay of local and provincial data influences in the seasonal adjustment process also necessitated revision back to January 2001 for all s.a. data for local markets in the province of Ontario. Source: The Canadian Real Estate Association

14 Sales as a Percentage of New Listings over MLS Systems of Select Canadian Real Estate Boards & Associations January 2016 Sales as a Percentage of New Listings* s.a. 2 nsa 3 s.a. 2 nsa 3 Fraser Valley Greater Vancouver Victoria Calgary Edmonton Regina Saskatoon Winnipeg Hamilton-Burlington Kitchener-Waterloo London and St Thomas Niagara Region Ottawa Sudbury Thunder Bay Greater Toronto Windsor-Essex Trois Rivières CMA Montreal CMA Gatineau CMA Quebec CMA Saguenay CMA Sherbrooke CMA Saint John Halifax-Dartmouth Newfoundland & Labrador Canada *Actual (not seasonally adjusted) data for sales-to-new listings ratios are based on a 12-month moving average Detailed data for the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) market area can be found at 1 Total = + Non-residential 2 Seasonally adjusted 3 Not seasonally adjusted Note: Due to revisions to geographical coverage, statistics for the Kitchener-Waterloo region from 2000 forward are not directly comparable with its statistics for previous years. Note: Due to s in local market boundaries and data collection in the province of Quebec, local market and provincial totals for Quebec and Canada after 2000 are not directly comparable with earlier years. Note: Due to a in data collection methodology, s.a. and nsa data for Kitchener Waterloo and Halifax Dartmouth (and some other markets not included in the above table) have been revised back to January The interplay of local and provincial data influences in the seasonal adjustment process also necessitated revision back to January 2001 for all s.a. data for local markets in the province of Ontario. Source: The Canadian Real Estate Association

15 Dollar Volume & Sales Activity over MLS Systems of Canadian Real Estate Boards & Associations January 2016 s.a. 2 nsa 3 s.a. 2 nsa 3 Dollar Volume* British Columbia 7, , , , , , , , Alberta 1, , , , , , Saskatchewan Manitoba Ontario 9, , , , , , , , Quebec 1, , , , , , , New Brunswick Nova Scotia Prince Edward Island Newfoundland & Labrador Northwest Territories Yukon Canada 21, , , , , , , , Sales Activity s.a. 2 nsa 3 s.a. 2 nsa 3 British Columbia 10,599 10, ,218 4, ,041 9, ,831 4, Alberta 4,425 4, ,458 2, ,040 4, ,277 2, Saskatchewan 1,103 1, ,043 1, Manitoba 1,307 1, ,211 1, Ontario 20,225 20, ,103 10, ,222 19, ,323 9, Quebec 6,881 6, ,568 4, ,465 6, ,281 3, New Brunswick Nova Scotia Prince Edward Island Newfoundland & Labrador Northwest Territories Yukon Canada 46,622 46, ,762 24, ,916 43, ,901 23, * in millions of dollars 1 Total = + Non-residential 2 Seasonally adjusted 3 Not seasonally adjusted Note: Due to s in local market boundaries and data collection in the province of Quebec, local market and provincial totals for Quebec and Canada after 2000 are not directly comparable with earlier years. Note: Due to a in data collection methodology, s.a. and nsa data for some local markets in Ontario and all local markets in Nova Scotia have been revised back to January The interplay of local and provincial data influences in the seasonal adjustment process also necessitated revision back to January 2001 for all s.a. data for local markets in the province of Ontario. Source: The Canadian Real Estate Association

16 New Listings and Average Sale Price over MLS Systems of Canadian Real Estate Boards & Associations January 2016 s.a. 2 nsa 3 s.a. 2 nsa 3 New Listings British Columbia 14,096 14, ,752 13, ,185 13, ,052 12, Alberta 11,025 11, ,766 10, ,762 10, ,559 9, Saskatchewan 2,868 2, ,188 2, ,643 2, ,996 2, Manitoba 2,537 2, ,869 1, ,297 2, ,637 1, Ontario 32,558 34, ,303 27, ,494 30, ,405 23, Quebec 14,977 15, ,990 16, ,355 14, ,634 15, New Brunswick 1,683 1, ,557 1, ,309 1, ,157 1, Nova Scotia 2,077 2, ,728 1, ,688 1, ,355 1, Prince Edward Island Newfoundland & Labrador 1,204 1, ,096 1, Northwest Territories Yukon Canada 83,664 87, ,769 77, ,168 78, ,011 68, s.a. 2 nsa 3 s.a. 2 nsa 3 Average Price* British Columbia 727, , , , , , , , Alberta 387, , , , , , , , Saskatchewan 307, , , , , , , , Manitoba 262, , , , , , , , Ontario 469, , , , , , , , Quebec 282, , n/a n/a - 278, , , , New Brunswick 150, , , , , , , , Nova Scotia 205, , , , , , , , Prince Edward Island 174, , , , , , , , Newfoundland & Labrador 247, , , , , , , , Northwest Territories 343, , , , , , , , Yukon 327, , , , , , , , Canada 470, , , , , , , , * Provincial weighted residential average price for Quebec (provided by Québec Federation of Real Estate Boards); does not affect weighted and unweighted national average price calculations. Information on Quebec's weighted average price calculation can be found at: 1 Total = + Non-residential 2 Seasonally adjusted 3 Not seasonally adjusted Note: Due to s in local market boundaries and data collection in the province of Quebec, local market and provincial totals for Quebec and Canada after 2000 are not directly comparable with earlier years. Note: Due to a in data collection methodology, s.a. and nsa data for some local markets in Ontario and all local markets in Nova Scotia have been revised back to January The interplay of local and provincial data influences in the seasonal adjustment process also necessitated revision back to January 2001 for all s.a. data for local markets in the province of Ontario. Source: The Canadian Real Estate Association

17 Months of Inventory and Sales as a Percentage of New Listings over MLS Systems of Canadian Real Estate Boards & Associations January 2016 Sales as a Percentage of New Listings* s.a. 2 nsa 3 s.a. 2 nsa 3 British Columbia Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Ontario Quebec New Brunswick Nova Scotia Prince Edward Island Newfoundland & Labrador Northwest Territories Yukon Canada Months of Inventory* s.a. 2 nsa 3 s.a. 2 nsa 3 British Columbia Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Ontario Quebec New Brunswick Nova Scotia Prince Edward Island Newfoundland & Labrador Northwest Territories Yukon Canada *Actual (not seasonally adjusted) data for sales to new listings ratios and months of inventory are based on a 12 month moving average 1 Total = + Non-residential 2 Seasonally adjusted 3 Not seasonally adjusted Note: Due to s in local market boundaries and data collection in the province of Quebec, local market and provincial totals for Quebec and Canada after 2000 are not directly comparable with earlier years. Note: Due to a in data collection methodology, s.a. and nsa data for some local markets in Ontario and all local markets in Nova Scotia have been revised back to January The interplay of local and provincial data influences in the seasonal adjustment process also necessitated revision back to January 2001 for all s.a. data for local markets in the province of Ontario. Source: The Canadian Real Estate Association