Q2 Results Turn Atlanta Office Market Positive

Transcription

1 Research & Forecast Report Q Office Q2 Results Turn Atlanta Office Market Positive Key Takeaways > Following the negative start to the year, Atlanta s office absorption turned positive in the second quarter with just over 616,000 square feet of space absorbed. This has brought the mid-year absorption total to +460,286 square feet. > In spite of the positive absorption, Atlanta s overall vacancy rate increased slightly quarter-over-quarter due to the delivery of new office product. > Eleven buildings delivered this quarter totaling almost 1.5 million square feet. This is the highest quarterly amount added in over 7 years. Three Alliance, Riverwood 200 and 8000 Avalon were the largest office buildings to deliver. > Although shy of anticipated absorption, the positive activity in the second quarter will likely carry over into the latter half of the year, leading to a sixth consecutive year of occupancy gains in Atlanta s office market. Atlanta Office Market With the first quarter out of the way, the Atlanta office market returned to positive results in the second quarter as absorption topped 616,000 square feet; the highest quarterly amount absorbed since the end of Leading the market was the Cumberland/ Galleria area of Northwest Atlanta which accounted for over half of the positive activity. This quarter s 356,980 square feet of occupancy here also brought the submarket out of negative territory as of mid-year. Expansions helped fuel the gains with Racetrac, Bennett Thrasher, and Holder Construction each relocating to larger offices this quarter. In the cases of Bennett Thrasher and Holder, these tenants crossed the interstate, vacating One Overton Park for new offices at Riverwood 200 which recently delivered to the market. Two Ballpark Center, adjacent to SunTrust Park, also delivered in Q2 and is currently 100% leased. Market Indicators Relative to prior period Q VACANCY - NET ABSORPTION Summary Statistics Atlanta Office Market Market Class A Class B Vacancy Rate 14.0% 13.9% 15.0% Change From Q % 0.6% -0.1% Absorption YTD (Thousands Square Feet) Construction Deliveries YTD (Thousands Square Feet) Under Construction (Millions Square Feet) Asking Rents Per Square Foot Per Year Q3 2017* CONSTRUCTION - RENTAL RATE - CAP RATES - *Projected ,519 1, Average Quoted $23.60 $27.99 $18.56 Change From Q % 2.0% 1.6% Year-Over-Year Change 7.8% 6.8% 6.1%

2 Atlanta Office Market (continued) The submarket seeing the second highest amount of space absorbed this quarter was Midtown which remains one of Atlanta s most active areas for office relocations and expansions. Equifax and Honeywell were the largest occupancies in the submarket, each moving into a little over half of their total space at their respective buildings. WeWork also took occupancy of 44,000 square feet at Colony Square and highlights the continued demand for co-working offices in Midtown. Despite Q2 s positive absorption, the overall vacancy rate for Atlanta office showed a slight increase from last quarter making it the second consecutive period with an uptick. Unlike first quarter, however, the added vacancy this quarter came from the delivery of almost 1.5 million square feet of new office space; Atlanta s highest amount of space added since Three Alliance was the largest building to come online this quarter at 506,647 square feet. It delivered 27% occupied. Other notable deliveries include the aforementioned Riverwood 200 and Two Ballpark Center, and also 8000 Avalon in North Fulton and The 309, Aaron s former headquarters in Buckhead. Overall construction activity is down slightly following these Q2 deliveries. State Farm s second phase of 670,000 square feet at its Central Perimeter campus was the largest project to break ground in the second quarter. Rental rates for office space in Atlanta continue to rise with the Q2 average posting its largest quarterly jump in 10 years. At $23.60 per square foot, the average office rent in Atlanta has yet again reached a new record. As it pertains to the major submarkets, Central Perimeter experienced the largest increase in its rental rate this quarter, up 3.6% over Q1; Midtown was a close second at 3.3%. UPDATE - Recent Transactions in the Market Notable Leasing Activity TENANT PROPERTY SUBMARKET LANDLORD SIZE TYPE Serta Simmons Assembly Northlake Integral Group 210,000 Class A Build-To-Suit Q Squared Solutions 1600 Terrell Mill Rd. Northwest Atlanta Zamir Equities 138,981 Class C Renewal Nelson Mullins Riley th Street Midtown KBS REIT III, Inc. 103,156 Class A Renewal SunTrust Bank 211 Perimeter Center Central Perimeter GID Investment Funds 84,339 Class A Renewal & Expansion Reliance Worldwide 2282/2300 Defoor Hills Midtown Wyatt Realty Company 80,262 Class A Lease Notable Sales Activity PROPERTY SUBMARKET SALES DATE SALE PRICE SIZE PRICE / SF BUYER th Street Midtown 5/15/2017 $182,000, ,789 $ Lionstone Investments Regions Plaza Midtown 6/22/2017 $176,000, ,846 $ Prudential Real Estate 250 Williams St. Downtown 6/15/2017 $166,000, ,770 $ Carter Validus 100 Peachtree Downtown 5/16/2017 $79,450, ,084 $ Zeller Realty Group Newmarket Business Park Northwest Atlanta 6/15/2017 $51,800, ,692 $ South Street Partners Historical Absorption, Deliveries and Vacancy Rates Square Feet 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 (1,000,000) (2,000,000) (3,000,000) (4,000,000) Absorption Deliveries Vacancy % % 15% 10% 5% 0% 2 Research & Forecast Report Q Atlanta Office Colliers International

3 Vacancy & Availability > New office deliveries contributed to this quarter s 30 basis point (0.3%) increase in Atlanta s overall vacancy rate. > At 10.6%, Midtown boasts the lowest Class A vacancy rate of Atlanta s major office districts. The amount of vacant space in the submarket is at its lowest level in sixteen years and has created somewhat of a supply constraint here. > The availability of loft/creative space has become scarcer as a number of recent lease transactions for this type of office product has taken options off market. Some developers have found opportunity in this demand and continue to retrofit older buildings and/or construct new projects. > Atlanta s office vacancy rate is not expected to move too much through the end of the year. The market will have to manage a balance between positive absorption levels and newly delivered space over the next couple of quarters. Absorption & Leasing Activity > Year-to-date office absorption is now positive thanks to a robust second quarter of move-in activity. Just over 616,000 square feet of space was filled in Q2. Expansions and new leases were the major contributor to this quarter s positive results. > The largest occupancy of the quarter was Racetrac which just recently moved into 133,445 sq. ft. at Galleria 200. This, along with other large expansions, helped the Cumberland/ Galleria submarket absorb the highest amount of space in Atlanta this quarter. > Compared to the first quarter, leasing activity was much stronger in Q2. The sweet spot for the majority of transactions were in smaller leases ranging between 10,000 to 20,000 square feet. > Absorption levels are likely to remain positive through the end of the year despite a few large vacancies set to occur. Demand for office space in the Atlanta market remains steady and elevated. Rental Rates > Office rents continue to rise in the Atlanta market. The overall average rose increased a 13th straight time this quarter. The Class A average is up 18 quarters in a row. > The addition of newly delivered space did not have any impact on Class A rents in Buckhead. The submarket actually saw a slight decline in its average, down 0.2% from last quarter. > Even though Atlanta s overall average rent increased by its highest quarterly percentage in a decade, there is still some consensus the market may be peaking. Depending on location, a few landlords have begun to pull back their rents in order to capture demand. Q Vacant Space By Type Square Feet CLASS A 16,108,839 SF VCY RATE = 13.9% Q Net Absorption By Submarket 400, , , , , , ,000 50,000 0 (50,000) (100,000) Q Atlanta Rental Rates Overall Market & Class A (per sq. ft.) 2014 Class A Class B Class C NORTHWEST MIDTOWN 2015 Class A CLASS B 13,128,694 SF VCY RATE = 15.0% CLASS C 2,039,107 SF VCY RATE = 10.5% SOUTH NORTH FULTON BUCKHEAD 2016 Sources: CoStar Property, Colliers Research WEST Market AVG NORTHLAKE DOWNTOWN 2017 CENTRAL PERIMETER NORTHEAST $29.00 $27.00 $25.00 $23.00 $21.00 $19.00 $ Research & Forecast Report Q Atlanta Office Colliers International

4 Construction > The delivery of 1.4 million square feet in Q2 is the highest quarterly amount to come onto market in 7 years. > Three Alliance, Riverwood 200 and 800 Avalon accounted for 72% of the space delivered this quarter. Currently, 63% of the total space in these buildings is leased. > Looking ahead, Atlanta is expected to see another 1.2 million square feet of office space delivered by year s end. Investment Activity > Just under $800 million of office investment activity took place in the second quarter bringing the year-todate total to almost the same level as it was this time last year, $1.2 billion. > The increased volume this quarter is attributable to the sales of th St. Regions Plaza and 250 Williams Street. > The typical end of year rush on investments should help solidify another upbeat year of Atlanta office sales. DEFINITIONS Absorption (Net)-The net change in occupied space over a given period of time, calculated by summing all the positive changes in occupancy and subtracting all the negative changes in occupancy. Vacancy Rate-A percentage of the total amount of physically vacant space divided by the total amount of existing inventory. Vacant Space-Space that is not currently occupied by a tenant, regardless of any lease obligation on the space. Construction Activity (100,000 SF+) PROPERTY SUBMARKET SIZE DELIVERY DATE Coda Spring Street Midtown 760,000 First Quarter 2019 State Farm Phase II Central Perimeter 670,000 Second Quarter 2020 NCR Headquarters - Phase I Midtown 485,000 First Quarter Ponce de Leon Ave. Midtown 430,000 First Quarter Perimeter Summit Central Perimeter 355,250 Fourth Quarter 2017 One Ballpark Center Northwest Atlanta 260,000 Fourth Quarter 2017 Mercedes HQ - Abernathy Rd. Central Perimeter 225,000 Second Quarter 2018 Encore Center Northwest Atlanta 222,000 First Quarter Overton Northwest Atlanta 172,906 Third Quarter 2017 Stockyards Atlanta Midtown 123,000 Third Quarter Edison North Fulton 107,643 Third Quarter 2017 Outlook Posting its strongest quarter of absorption in a year and a half, the Atlanta office market remains in an expansionary environment. This is supported by the metro area continuing to be one of the country s leading markets of job growth, adding 81,900 jobs in May yearover-year; which was third in the nation behind New York and Dallas. It is also backed by the sustained demand taking place. Whether it be in new leases, expansions and/or headquarter relocations such as Serta Simmons recent announcement this quarter, activity in Atlanta remains robust. Even so, overall available space in the market has begun to tick upwards over the past year, increasing steadily quarter-by-quarter. This is due to a handful of factors including the delivery of new product and also contractions from existing tenants in the market who are becoming more space efficient. To some extent, parity between expansions and contractions is beginning to take shape in Atlanta, with one or the other determining the fate of a quarter s results. Currently, expansions are outpacing contractions, as witnessed by Q2 s overall absorption and leasing activity. The next quarter will prove to be a bit more indistinct as a number of scheduled vacancies balance out anticipated absorption. Regardless, the second half of the year is expected to show positive resutls overall. Atlanta will see its sixth consecutive year of occupancy gains in Sublease Space-Space that has been leased by a tenant and is being offered for lease back to the market by the tenant with the lease obligation. Deliveries-Buildings that complete construction during a specified period of time. A certificate of occupancy must have been issued for the property for it to be considered delivered. Leasing Activity-The volume of square footage that is committed to and signed for under a lease obligation for a specific building or market in a given period of time. It includes direct leases, subleases and renewals of existing leases. It also includes any pre-leasing activity for buildings under construction or planned. Build-to-Suit-A term describing property that was developed specifi cally for a certain tenant to occupy. Can be either leased or owned by the tenant. Class A Office-A classification used to describe buildings that generally qualify as extremely desirable investment-grade properties and command the highest rents or sales prices compared to other buildings in the same market. Such buildings are well located and provide efficient tenant layouts as well as high quality floor plans. Class B Office-A classification used to describe buildings that generally qualify as a more speculative investment, and as such, command lower rents or sales prices compared to Class A properties. Such properties have ordinary design, lack prestige and generally must depend on a lower rent/sales price to attract tenants/investors. 4 Research & Forecast Report Q Atlanta Office Colliers International

5 Atlanta Office Market Update Existing Properties Vacancy Absorption Deliveries U/C Rent CLASS BLDGS EXISTING INVENTORY DIRECT VACANCY DIRECT VCY % SUBLET VACANCY SUBLET VCY % TOTAL VACANCY VCY CURR QTR % VCY PRIOR QTR % NET ABSORP CURR NET ABSORP YTD NEW SUPPLY CURR NEW SUPPLY YTD UNDER CONSTR AVG RENT RATE URBAN DOWNTOWN A 28 15,304,010 2,574, % 167, % 2,742, % 18.1% 32,857 31, ,000 $25.35 B 78 8,977,175 1,014, % 1, % 1,016, % 11.2% (15,625) (10,042) ,000 $19.51 C 76 3,770, , % , % 19.1% (26,371) 22, $17.15 Total ,052,128 4,336, % 169, % 4,506, % 16.0% (9,139) 44, ,000 $23.90 MIDTOWN A 42 16,199,409 1,407, % 301, % 1,709, % 11.0% 75, , ,798,000 $33.81 B 101 5,601, , % 10, % 558, % 10.9% 65,612 90,483 17,000 17,000 20,149 $23.24 C ,971 45, % , % 4.6% (3,667) (24,784) $21.54 Total ,704,413 2,001, % 312, % 2,313, % 10.7% 137, ,742 17,000 17,000 1,818,149 $30.14 BUCKHEAD A 54 16,795,768 2,385, % 131, % 2,516, % 11.7% 89, , , ,398 - $34.42 B 55 4,035, , % 17, % 340, % 7.4% (41,659) (30,130) ,518 $25.28 C ,496 20, % , % 2.2% (1,360) (505) $20.87 Total ,729,012 2,728, % 148, % 2,876, % 10.4% 46,145 79, , ,398 18,518 $33.18 URBAN TOTAL A ,299,187 6,367, % 600, % 6,968, % 13.5% 197, , , ,398 1,815,000 $31.19 B ,613,956 1,885, % 30, % 1,915, % 10.3% 8,328 50,311 17,000 17, ,667 $22.68 C 153 5,572, , % - 0.0% 813, % 14.0% (31,398) (2,372) $19.85 Total ,485,553 9,066, % 630, % 9,697, % 12.7% 174, , , ,398 1,977,667 $29.07 SUBURBAN CENTRAL PERIMETER A 72 21,041,487 2,181, % 312, % 2,493, % 11.8% (4,300) 12, ,270,966 $29.58 B 138 6,739,283 1,253, % 24, % 1,277, % 18.7% (1,921) 17,616 15,402 15,402 - $23.52 C 73 1,160, , % , % 6.8% (21,720) (14,886) $15.04 Total ,940,899 3,535, % 336, % 3,872, % 13.2% (27,941) 15,279 15,402 15,402 1,270,966 $27.39 NORTH FULTON A ,013,047 2,140, % 122, % 2,263, % 12.6% (14,619) (193,021) 266, , ,243 $25.77 B ,298,805 1,313, % 7, % 1,321, % 12.3% 70,867 89, ,841 $17.67 C 68 1,053, , % , % 10.5% (1,998) (32,043) $15.95 Total ,365,840 3,566, % 130, % 3,697, % 12.4% 54,250 (135,689) 266, , ,084 $22.70 NORTHEAST A 60 8,048,598 1,208, % 47, % 1,256, % 15.5% (7,983) (31,782) ,944 $20.93 B ,924,255 3,021, % 77, % 3,099, % 22.1% (25,113) 56,372-50,000 - $15.73 C 126 2,185, , % 14, % 271, % 11.8% (12,298) (4,892) $12.04 Total ,158,761 4,487, % 139, % 4,626, % 19.0% (45,394) 19,698-50,000 47,944 $17.28 NORTHLAKE A 24 3,157, , % 12, % 431, % 13.9% 32,121 (6,222) 27,689 27,689 33,000 $22.69 B ,939,340 1,681, % 117, % 1,798, % 16.4% (8,211) (50,633) ,000 $17.92 C 151 3,112, , % 5, % 179, % 5.2% (16,755) (25,527) $15.48 Total ,209,381 2,274, % 135, % 2,410, % 13.9% 7,155 (82,382) 27,689 27,689 78,000 $18.84 NORTHWEST A 75 17,850,676 2,366, % 226, % 2,593, % 14.5% 328,354 (34,119) 392, , ,906 $26.59 B ,216,584 2,100, % 24, % 2,125, % 14.3% 52, , $17.98 C 157 2,821, , % 2, % 225, % 7.6% (12,391) (7,734) $13.03 Total ,888,334 4,691, % 253, % 4,944, % 13.9% 368, , , , ,906 $22.19 SOUTH A 17 1,344,022 98, % 4, % 102, % 8.9% 17,706 58,743-20,000 - $20.82 B 234 8,994,577 1,032, % 73, % 1,106, % 12.7% 32,922 89, ,000 $15.88 C 137 2,725, , % , % 10.3% 10,632 1, $17.67 Total ,063,723 1,401, % 77, % 1,479, % 11.8% 61, ,642-20,000 20,000 $16.59 WEST A B 70 2,016, , % , % 25.0% 19,943 (10,859) ,000 $20.45 C ,349 64, % , % 8.6% 3,900 10, $17.62 Total 110 2,807, , % , % 20.4% 23,843 (489) ,000 $20.13 SUBURBAN TOTAL A ,455,302 8,414, % 725, % 9,140, % 13.2% 351,279 (193,852) 685, ,764 2,244,059 $24.40 B 1,884 69,128,885 10,886, % 326, % 11,213, % 16.4% 141, ,265 15,402 65, ,841 $18.45 C ,850,141 1,204, % 21, % 1,225, % 8.5% (50,630) (73,142) $15.26 Total 2, ,434,328 20,505, % 1,073, % 21,579, % 14.2% 441, , , ,166 2,382,900 $20.73 MARKET GRAND TOTAL A ,754,489 14,782, % 1,326, % 16,108, % 13.3% 548,868 92,224 1,417,162 1,437,162 4,059,059 $27.99 B 2,118 87,742,841 12,772, % 356, % 13,128, % 15.1% 149, ,576 32,402 82, ,508 $18.56 C ,422,551 2,017, % 21, % 2,039, % 10.1% (82,028) (75,514) $15.52 Total 3, ,919,881 29,572, % 1,704, % 31,276, % 13.7% 616, ,286 1,449,564 1,519,564 4,360,567 $23.60 Quarterly Comparisons and Totals QUARTERLY COMPARISON AND TOTALS Q2-17 3, ,919,881 29,572, % 1,704, % 31,276, % 13.7% 616, ,286 1,449,564 1,519,564 4,360,567 $23.60 Q1-17 3, ,470,317 28,796, % 1,646, % 30,443, % 13.6% (155,989) (155,989) 70,000 70,000 4,922,846 $23.05 Q4-16 3, ,400,317 28,654, % 1,562, % 30,217, % 13.6% 593,629 1,037, ,345 1,104,697 4,418,657 $22.73 Q3-16 3, ,641,972 28,721, % 1,331, % 30,052, % 13.6% 246, , , ,352 3,998,359 $22.38 Q2-16 3, ,352,848 28,745, % 1,264, % 30,009, % 13.8% 345, ,657 17,110 57,228 4,143,364 $21.89 NOTE: STATISTICAL SET CONSISTS OF OFFICE PROPERTIES 10,000 SF AND UP, INCLUDING OWNER-OCCUPIED PROPERTIES; AND EXCLUDING MEDICAL OFFICE AND PROPERTIES WHERE THE GOVERNMENT IS 100% OWNER AND OCCUPIER. WHILE COSTAR ATTEMPTS TO PROVIDE THE MOST ACCURATE DATA AT THE END OF EVERY QUARTER, REVISIONS ARE MADE THROUGHOUT THE YEAR ACCOUNTING FOR DISCREPANCIES IN PAST REPORTING. SOURCES: COSTAR PROPERTY, COLLIERS RESEARCH 5 Research & Forecast Report Q Atlanta Office Colliers International

6 Atlanta Office Submarkets Canton Cartersville Emerson BARTOW CO. PAULDING CO. COBB CO. BARTOW CO. CHEROKEE CO. Acworth Allatona Lake NORTHWEST MARIETTA Woodstock CHEROKEE CO. Mountain Park COBB CO. O. Roswell CHEROKEE CO. FORSYTH CO. NORTH FULTON Alpharetta OCENTRAL PERIMETER DORAVILLE CHAMBLEE FORSYTH Cumming FULTO N CO. CO. River Duluth Chattachoochee Norcross Lake Lanier Sugar Hill HALL CO. GWINNETT CO. 316 Lawrenceville Buford NORTHEAST GAINESVILLE Bras OFFICE SUBMARKETS The Atlanta office market consists of ten submarkets. They include the urban markets of Downtown, Midtown and Buckhead, and the suburban markets of Central Perimeter, North Fulton, Northwest Atlanta, Northeast Atlanta, Northlake, South Atlanta and West Atlanta. The major interstates in the region include: I-75, I-85, I-285, I-575, I-985, I-675 and I-20. Georgia 400 and US 316 also play important roles to Atlanta s transportation system. PAULDING CO. Douglasville Powder Springs Austell COBB CO. DOUGLAS CO. WEST SMYRNA oochoch Ch attachoochee River BUCKHEAD MIDTOWN DECATUR Avondale Estates DOWNTOWN NORTHLAKE Clarkston GWINNETT CO. Stone Mountain Lithonia Snellville GWINNETT CO. WALTON CO. Submarket Size & Occupancy COWETA CO. Palmetto Fairburn Union City EAST POINT COLLEGE PARK HAPEVILLE Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport FAYETTE CO. Fayetteville CLAYTON CO. FOREST PARK SOUTH Riverdale 675 Jonesboro HENRY CO. CLAYTON CO. HENRY CO. Stockbridge ROCKDALE CO. McDonough SUBMARKET SIZE OCCUPANCY % Conyers Covington Northwest Atlanta 35.9 msf 86.2% Central Perimeter 28.9 msf 86.6% North Fulton 28.4 msf 87.0% Downtown 28.1 msf 83.9% Northeast Atlanta 24.2 msf 80.8% Midtown 22.7 msf 89.8% Buckhead 21.7 msf 86.8% Northlake 17.2 msf 86.0% ROCKDALE CO. NEWTON CO. Newnan Peachtree City South Atlanta 13.1 msf 88.7% West Atlanta 2.8 msf 80.5% BUTTS CO. FOR MORE INFORMATION Scott Amoson VP, Director of Research Atlanta scott.amoson@colliers.com Bob Mathews President & CEO Atlanta bob.mathews@colliers.com Copyright 2017 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. Colliers International Atlanta Promenade Suite Peachtree Street, NE Atlanta, Georgia, colliers.com/atlanta 6 North American Research & Forecast Report Q Office Market Outlook Colliers International