Report the warehouse market in Q3 2018

Transcription

1 Report the warehouse market in Q3 218 The Polish warehouse market is set to break further records. Over 3 million have been leased since the beginning of the year, and 2.16 million are under construction. Net demand 54, Gross demand 87, Excellent warehouse market figures for the third quarter this year show that growth is being maintained. Demand has exceeded 3 million since the beginning of the year, with 87, leased in the third quarter alone. This result is 2% higher compared with the same period last year. An impressive 2.16 million of warehouse and production space is under construction, of which over 33% will be delivered by the end of the year. Under construction 2,16 mln New supply 622, Vacancy* 4,% Rents Compared to the Q3 217 *Compared to the Q2 218 Axi Immo Group Sp. z o.o. 18 Twarda St. -15 Warsaw office@axiimmo.com

2 Demand D emand for warehouse space from occupiers is showing no signs of abating. In Q3 this year, In terms of new lease agreements, the situation was similar to the previous quarters this year, with logistic operators 87, was leased, over 2% higher than in the same period last year. More than 62% of total demand was taking 33%, retailers/distributors 15.5% and e-commerce 9.8%. made up of new lease agreements and expansions. From January to the end of September this year, over 3 million of modern warehouse and production space was leased. We estimate that by the end of the year demand may reach 4 million, a figure similar to last year. The high share of new lease agreements in demand makes for optimistic forecasts for the next quarter. Despite the fall in the availability of staff, Poland remains an attractive destination, both for logistic and production companies as well as distributors. The former choose regions closer The largest amount of warehouse space, nearly 25, was leased in, 71% of which was made up of new lease agreements and expansions. The Warsaw region took second place, where lease agreements for over 175, were signed. This was followed by Lower Silesia with over 15, and with more than 1,. to the border with Germany, where they have central warehouses created to serve Western Europe. Production companies are increasingly choosing locations in the interior of the country, including in, where staff are widely available. For distribution companies, natural destinations are big cities and their surroundings, where organising fast and frequent deliveries is increasingly important. Demand in regions in Q Warsaw Suburbs Torun/Bydgoszcz New agreements Renewals 2

3 Selected lease transactions in Q3 218 Tenant Property Region Type of contract Leased space [] Amazon Panattoni BTS Amazon Gliwice Expansion 61,7 Jysk P3 Park Piotrków Trybunalski 35,3 Festa Panattoni BTO Wrocław 35, PartnersPol MLP Teresin Warsaw 22,2 AQ Wiring Segro Logistics Park Łódź II 12,25 Supply T he total supply of modern warehouse space in Poland in Q3 218 exceeded 15.1 million square Western Poland, where there were 75, of modern warehouse space was completed. metres, which was the result of 1.34 million being completed since the beginning of the year, of which 622, were within investments completed in Q3 this year. This result is 29% lower compared with Q3 217, but still high considering that more than 2.16 million The unquestioned leader in terms of the volume of space under construction is (566, ), followed by (365, ), Lower Silesia (325, ) and Warsaw (28, ). remains under construction. The share of purpose-built investments is surging ahead Developers delivered on the market most new A-class space in (over 21, ) followed by (124, ). Development activity has been highest in these two regions for over a year. Also at a level close to 2%, but also in comparison to the previous quarter of this year the share of speculative projects under construction increased reaching 41% by the end of September. worth noting are the high figures for Eastern and 3

4 Space under construction at the end of Q Projects under construction percentage share in the regions by the end of Q Warszawa suburbs 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3 5% 5% 26% 2 5% 7% 17% 1 11% 15% Warszawa suburbs Polska Zachodnia Kielce Torun/Bydgoszcz Polska Zachodnia Kielce Selected new projects delivered in Q3 218 Region Projekt/Park Powierzchnia w mkw. Deweloper Panattoni Central European Logisitc Hub 74, Panattoni Europe Segro Logistics Park Stryków 55, Segro Western Poland Hillwood Krosno Odrzańskie 44,5 Hillwood Panattoni Sosnowiec V 42, Panattoni Europe Panattoni Park Białystok 4,6 Panattoni Europe 7R Siemianowice Śląskie 17,4 7R Warsaw Hillwood Pruszków 14,2 Hillwood 3

5 Vacancy rates T he average vacancy rate in Q3 this year remained low and at the end of September stood at 4%, quarter. Among the main markets, the highest rate was recorded in Warsaw (7.4%), followed the which was the same as in the previous quarter this year. However, differences in availability in individual regions vary widely. Most free space for immediate rent was reported in (9.5%). This is a significant region (6.9%). An increase in availability in a six-month perspective can be expected in Lodz, where new speculative projects are being carried out by Panattoni, Prologis and Segro. jump, by as much as 7 p.p., compared to the second Stock and vacanacy rate at the end of Q % 3 6% 2 4% 1 2% % Warsaw Suburbs Torun/Bydgoszcz Western Poland Existing space () Vacancy rates (%) Rents A n increase of.1 to.3 euro per square metre in rental rates is visible in almost all of the country s Currently, the lowest effective rates of around 2. euro/sq m are still achievable in Błonie and Grodzisk Mazowiecki warehouse regions. Along with increases in construction costs, including building materials and labour, consolidations in the owner market have also played a role. Strong activity among Asian investment platforms and portfolio purchases in Poland have led to new owners raising the value of their properties and limiting near Warsaw. An upward trend is clearly visible in the Wrocław region, and in selected locations of. Meanwhile, rates remain relatively high in new markets, such as Białystok, and Bydgoszcz, where average effective rates range from 2.5 to 2.8 euro/. rent holidays and other incentives for tenants. The low availability of ready space is not conducive to negotiations. 4

6 Effective rents in regions in Q , ,5 3,3 2,9 2,7 2,8 2,8 3,3 2,8 2,9 2,6 3,3 2,8 2 2, 2,3 2,2 2, 2,4 2,5 2,5 2,5 2,4 2,7 2,5 1 Warsaw Suburbs Bydgoszcz and Torun Western Poland Effective rents (EUR/) Forecasts T he warehouse market will continue to record path in the coming quarters. We estimate that at the end an additional impact on the increase in rental rates in Poland. of the year demand should reach a similar value of 4 million as in the previous year, the main driver of which will be the e-commerce and retail sectors. In the long-term perspective, the low availability of staff will push many companies to develop automation tools, which in turn will require developers to adapt At the end of the year, total warehouse supply in Poland will exceed 16 million, and the expected annual increase in warehouse space will be around 2.8 million. their space to the needs of tenants to an even greater extent. The effect of this will be an increased number of BTS investments, with varying technical parameters, for example buildings over 1 m in height, above-standard load capacity of floor loading, mezzanines and increased We will witness further major acquisitions and portfolio demand for utilities. purchases in the CEE region and Poland, which may have 5

7 Contact Anna Głowacz Head of Industrial - Leasing Agency anna.glowacz@axiimmo.com Monika Rykowska PR & Marketing Director monika.rykowska@axiimmo.com Barbara Staśkiewicz-Wieczorek Industrial & Research Coordinator b.staskiewicz-wieczorek@axiimmo.com Copyright 218 AXI IMMO. All rights reserved. The information contained in this document is proprietary to AXI IMMO and shall be used solely for the purposes of evaluating this proposal. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of AXI IMMO. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy thereof. We would like to be told of any errors in order to correct them. Axi Immo Group Sp. z o.o. 18 Twarda St. -15 Warsaw office@axiimmo.com