Moscow retail market Q2 2010

Transcription

1 Moscow retail market Q2 2010

2 Content Moscow retail snapshot, Q Demand: Retail market drivers Supply: Retail real estate development Rents Key trends 2

3 Moscow retail snapshot, Q Stock Shopping centre stock Shopping centre stock per 1,000 inhabitants Completions, Q ,815,000 sq m 268 sq m 167,000 sq m Number of shopping centres 72 Market balance Prime shopping centre base rent* Average shopping centre base rent Prime street retail base rent USD 2,700 4,000 sq m/year USD 400 1,000 sq m/year USD 3,500 4,000 sq m/year Prime shopping centre yield % Vacancy rate 11% * Rents are given for a single unit of 100 sq m GLA located on the ground floor of a retail gallery. Rents exclude VAT and OPEX. Source: Jones Lang LaSalle 3

4 Demand: Retail market drivers 4

5 Personal income and expenditures 16 Personal income and retail growth in Moscow Muscovites have one of the highest income levels in Russia: it averaged USD1,531 per capita per month in last 12 months* vs USD584 for the country. After the initial impact of the crisis, Muscovites real income began to recover, increasing by 3.7% YoY in January-April Muscovites spend approximately 70% of their incomes on consumption. This is helped by low income tax and debt levels (mortgages are still in their infancy) Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Personal income real growth, % YoY Retail turnover real growth, % YoY Household expenditure structure, % Goods and services Obligatory payments Savings Currency purchases Cash increase/ decrease June May 2009 June May 2010 * May 2009-April 2010 Source: Rosstat, Jones Lang LaSalle 5

6 Consumer confidence in Russia Consumer confidence indicator Inflation dynamics, % YoY % 16% 14% 12% 10% % 6% 4% 2% 0% Consumer confidence continues to pick up after a sharp correction. The continued decline of inflation is providing support to consumer sector recovery. Source: Rosstat, Jones Lang LaSalle 6 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Q = 100 Russia Moscow

7 Retailer development plans 100% Targeted cities* 80% 76% 75% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 0% Moscow St.Petersburg Millionniki Cities w ith 500,000 people Retailers interest is currently skewed towards Moscow and St. Petersburg. * The share of interviewed retailers interested in a particular city. ** The panel includes 420 retailers interviewed in August-September Source: Jones Lang LaSalle 7

8 Retailer development plans Grocery retailers Other retailers Four strategies of retail chains STABILIZE DOWNSIZE EXPAND Citystore, Spar Auchan, Magnit, O'Key, X5 Retail Group, Mosmart, Metro C&C, Seventh Continent, Dixy Group, Victoria Group Lenta, REWE Group, Matritsa Rive Gauche, Leroy Merlin, Eldorado, Media Markt, H&M, Inditex, Burger King, Traveler's Coffee IKEA, M.Video, Detsky Mir, OBI, Decathlon Shokoladnitsa, Technosila, L Etoile, Wild Orchid EXIT Carrefour, Paterson, Smak (Roznitzio-M), Grossmart, Alpi, Vester Mir, Shans, Arbat Prestizh, Banana Mama, Bookberry, Betalink, Tsifrograd Weakening demand has increased competition in the Russian retail sector. The financial strength of large foreign retail chains like Auchan, Metro C&C helps them to take advantage of the current situation and to continue their expansion. 8

9 Retailer strategies Anchor Retail gallery: Franchise Retail gallery: Direct Many international retailers are already operating in Russia, their number approaches 200. BEBE, New Look, IKKS, Kika, River Island, Coast, Oxette, H&M, Peter Murray, Uniqlo, Miss Selfridge, KIABI are among recent newcomers. 9

10 Supply: Retail real estate development 10

11 European shopping centre stock benchmarks Total stock** Stock per 1,000 inhabitants** Frankfurt Hamburg Budapest Prague London* Warsaw Stockholm Frankfurt Warsaw Prague Berlin Budapest St.Petersburg London* Stockholm St.Petersburg Berlin Hamburg Moscow 2,815 Moscow '000 sq m sq m Despite recent dynamic growth, supply of retail space in Moscow remains modest for the size of the city. * Excludes some projects beyond city limits. ** Data for European cities, except Moscow and St. Petersburg, are for Q Source: Jones Lang LaSalle 11

12 35 Moscow existing shopping centres neighbourhood 18 community 72 regional super regional specialty # Name GLA, sq m # Name GLA, sq m 1 Petrovskiy Passazh 23, RIO 35,100 2 GUM 30, XL III 20,000 3 Auchan City - Kuntsevo 11, MALL Gallery Brateevo 12,000 4 Okhotny Ryad 30, Festival 30,160 5 Auchan City - Mar'ina Roscha 23, Auchan City Sevastopolskiy 26,400 6 Druzhba 11, Retail Park 24,500 7 Auchan City - Kashirskaya 23, Gorod 62,000 8 Global City 36, Zolotoi Vavilon II 8,150 9 Rublevskiy 8, Chas Pik 25, Waymart 26, Evropeyskiy 63, Atrium 40, Auchan City Kapitoliy 40, Zolotoi Vavilon 24, MALL Gallery Otradnoye 6, Auchan Mytishy 16, MEGA Belaya Dacha 182, Auchan City - Belyaevo 29, Mosmart on Borovskoe shosse 28, XL I 22, Erevan Plaza 24, Crocus City Mall 30, Domodedovskiy 18, Auchan City - Leningradskiy 38, Schuka 43, MEGA Tyoply Stan 152, Lotte Plaza 22, Metromarket na Timiryazevskoy 6, Vremena Goda 28, TsUM 46, Oblaka 42, Gallery Aeroport 6, ZIG-ZAG 16, Auchan Marfino 24, Semenovskiy phase II 22, Mosmart on Yaroslavskoye shosse 12, Stolitsa, Solntsevo 8, Liga 27, Troika 80, Kaluzhskiy 17, RIO Grand 105, Vesna 5, Metropolis 80, Bum 20, Megapolis 44, Mosmart on Dmitrovskoe shosse 16, Spektr 35, Waypark 46, Filion 55, L , Zolotoi Vavilon Rostokino 170, Solnechniy Ray 6, Gorod II 110, th Avenue 17, AST 15, MEGA Khimky 174, Rechnoy phase I 20, Varshavskiy 30, Azovsky 15, Ladya 13, VIVA! 21, Europark 38, Vegas 140,000 Quality high medium low 12

13 Moscow shopping centres under construction Name Announced year of opening GLA, sq m 1 Kluchevoy ,000 2 Marcos Mall ,200 3 SEC on D.Donskogo Blvd , RIO, 2nd km of MKAD ,000 5 Gagarinsky ,000 6 Parus SEC ,150 7 Favorit Centre ,000 8 Mall of Russia , Kaleidoskop , Central Market (Tsvetnoy) , GoodZone , River Mall , Fashion House Outlet Centre , neighbourhood community regional super regional specialty 7 3 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle 13

14 Supply: Shopping centre stock The following shopping centres have been opened in Q2 2010: Vegas (140,000 sq m GLA) VIVA! (21,900 sq m GLA) Azovsky, 1 st floor (5,000 sq m GLA) Three large schemes will be delivered in Moscow until the end of 2010: Mall of Russia (101,000 sq m GLA) RIO on the 2nd km of MKAD (90,000 sq m GLA) Gagarinsky (70,000 sq m GLA) Moscow retail market evolution '000 sq m 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Stock Completions Vacancy rate F 2011F 2012F 2013F % Source: Jones Lang LaSalle 14

15 Rents 15

16 European prime SC base rents* European prime SC base rents, Q Prime SC rent dynamics USD/sq m/year Budapest 6000 Prague 5000 Warsaw Berlin Hamburg St.Petersburg Frankfurt London Moscow 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 4, Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q USD/sq m/y ear Frankfurt Budapest Paris Moscow London Moscow prime rents are one of the highest in Europe. In Q they increased by 5%, and remained stable in Q2. * Rents are given for a single unit of 100 sq m GLA located on the ground floor of a retail gallery. Rents exclude VAT and OPEX. Source: Jones Lang LaSalle 16

17 Shopping centre rents Turnover rents are becoming more common in Moscow. Possible options include: fixed rent, fixed + turnover rent kicking in when a specified revenue level is reached, turnover-based rent. Incentives for tenants may include: rental holidays or rental discounts for the first two years, full or partial fit-out, relocation to a lower floor without rental increase, lower deposit 1 month instead of 3, lower prepayment, rents for anchor tenants are denominated in RUB, for others in USD or EUR with an option to fix the exchange rate. Minimum Maximum Profile Area (sq m) (USD / sq m / year) (USD /sq m / year) Hypermarket >5, White & brown >2, <2, >3, Sporting goods 1,200-3, <1, Cinema >2, Entertainment 1,500-7, Perfume and cosmetics Goods for children >1,500 1, , <300 <300 1, ,400 1,300 DIY 8,000 15, Food courts ,000 2,200 Restaurants < ,000 Fashion and apparel ,000 >1000 % or turnover 700 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle 17

18 Key trends Personal incomes and retail sales extended the positive trend in the beginning of Consumers prefer cheaper or non-branded goods, they became more value oriented. Facing financial problems, many retailers have downsized their chains to improve operational efficiency. However, some still have ambitious expansion plans especially in Moscow. Developers were more active in Q2 and announced the start of several project developments. The vacancy rate in Moscow increased to 11%, as a large volume of new shopping centre premises entered the market. Rental rates for the majority of shopping centres tenants in Moscow remained unchanged. 18

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