SAN ANTONIO SAN ANTONIO. Overview. Map. Summary of Last Twelve Months vs. Historical Minimum, Maximum, and Average

Transcription

1 PPR undamentals Overview Map Hays 1 Kendall Comal 35 Caldwell Bandera Guadalupe 1 Bexar 35 1 Medina 41 Gonzales rio Wilson Karnes Summary of Last Twelve Months vs. Historical Minimum, Maximum, and Average Map Layers County PPR Markets Dewi U.S. Cities State Capital Major Cities Secondary Cities Miles 21 Property & Portfolio Research Apartment Office Retail Warehouse Hotel Current Vacancy* Net New Supply (S)** (S)** 7.5% 2,585 1,47 5.1% 17.4% -61 1,249-1,684 8,8 98:4 88:1 91:4 84:4 87:4 84:4 18.7% 1, % 31.6% -45 3, ,783 82:1 87:3 91:4 85:4 2:1 85:3 13.8% 1, % 23.4% 235 2, ,334 :3 9:1 91:4 87:1 87:3 :1 11.6% % 11.8% 92 2, ,13 83:3 2:1 91:3 85:2 91:2 85:2 62.8% 1, % 6.9% -34 2, ,511 93:1 88:1 93:3 99:4 96:3 89:1 *Occupancy for Hotels **Apartment and Hotel data are in units. 3Q22 PPR undamentals 22 by P R O P E R T Y P O R T O L I O R E S E A R C H, I N C. All Rights Reserved.

2 PPR undamentals Analysis/Economy Notable Economic and Real Estate Market Events ECON San Antonio s economy is turning a corner, with employment up.2% over the past year. The services and government sectors account for the bulk of job gains, adding about 2,5 and 2,8 jobs, respectively. Still, the communications sector continues to drag on the economy, with employment down nearly 1.% on a year-ago basis as SBC continues to restructure. Retail trade employment is falling as Albertson s exits the market and the metro s substantial IRE sector has also suffered, shedding 1, jobs over the past year. Still, the outlook for the IRE sector here is upbeat; although USAA recently announced another round of layoffs, resulting in the loss of 18 local marketing and insurance underwriting positions, it continues to hire aggressively in its member services unit, adding 655 workers in San Antonio thus far this year. San Antonio s sizeable military presence bolsters the economic outlook as defense spending increases. APT As new supply continues to come on line amid stagnant demand, vacancies have risen to their highest level in five years, reaching 7.5% in the third quarter. While rebounding demand indicates that vacancies are peaking, multifamily permitting has jumped 33% through the first three quarters of this year, suggesting supply-side risk in the near term as a ramp up in supply could dampen the market s recovery. ollowing the completion of about 3,3 units last year, construction has dropped to just under 2,2 units for 22. Development has been active to the north of the metro, in the Texas Hill Country, where Realty Capital Corp. s 248-unit Bandera Commons completed in August and Dominion Park LLC s 28-unit Dominion Park Apartments is currently underway and due by year end. Other projects are on the drawing board, including Hogan Real Estate Services planned 28-unit Eagle Ridge Apartments in the West, which just received construction financing. O Vacancies are peaking at 18.7% as supply continues to exceed new office demand. The metro s inventory of sublease space continued its gentle increase, reaching 8, S at mid-year, according to local sources. That figure has likely dropped in recent months as SBC has opted out of its 2, S lease at the former Builders Square headquarters, reverting that back to direct space, and Aetna s lease on 56, S in the North Central submarket expired in August. JP Morgan Chase and USAA have each vacated chunks of space in recent months, consolidating employees back to their area campuses. The uncertain fate of Worldcom, which owns and occupies 4, S in the North Central submarket, also remains a risk. Construction activity is slowing, and most projects currently underway are build-to-suit in the northern suburbs (including 16, S for Chase BankCard Services and Valero Energy s 168, S campus addition). RET A glut of supply has exceeded weak demand over the past two years, lifting the economic vacancy rate to nearly 14%. However, vacancies are stabilizing as retail sales are improving with the economy. Construction remains strongest in the suburbs to the north and west of the city, mostly in big-box centers for national retailers. Kohl s is entering the market and has reportedly inked deals at The orum at Olympia Park, Northwoods Shopping Center, and Bandera Pointe. In the, Hill-Granados Retail Partners recently received the go-ahead for a 456, S retail center anchored by a 22, S Wal-Mart Supercenter, along with 11, S of in-line space plus 15, S of outparcels. The largest project currently underway is the 1.3 million S high-end mall The Shops at La Cantera in the. WHS Active warehouse construction over the last three years pushed the local vacancy rate to nearly 12%, a record level. However, as construction has shut down, vacancies have peaked. Just under 15, S is expected to complete this year and no major projects are currently underway. Two projects are reportedly close to breaking ground in the North Central submarket Marks Design Group s 55, S warehouse and the 194, S Medline Distribution Center. Leasing activity has picked up at KellyUSA, with OGM Enterprises signing for 24, S and the Air orce Medical Logistics Office moving into its 249, S space. Still, the four million S park is just 25% occupied. HOT Hotel occupancy remains stalled at about 63% as the economic slowdown hampers travel and tourism. While convention and visitor traffic were hammered following 9/11, San Antonio is one of the very few markets in which both occupancy and REVPAR are up year-to-date. Demographic Trends Annual Growth Rates 22* Category Market U.S. Market U.S. Market U.S. Market U.S. Population 1, , % 1.% 1.9% 1.2% 2.%.9% Households , % 1.3% 2.% 1.3% 2.2% 1.1% Median Household Income $41,772 $45, % 4.4% 4.% 3.9% 3.1% 3.3% Apartment-Renting Households , % 1.7%.2%.5% 2.% 1.3% Real Retail Sales Per Capita $4,13 $4,52.1% 1.4%.8% 1.8% 1.3% 1.2% Employment Trends 22* Annual Growth Rates Location SIC Category Employment Quotient Market U.S. Market U.S. Market U.S. Total Services % 4.3% 4.6% 3.7% 3.3% 2.6% Business Services % 6.6% 7.8% 6.1% 4.3% 3.2% Other Services % 3.8% 3.8% 3.% 2.9% 2.4% Retail Trade % 2.5% 3.% 2.% 1.9% 1.4% Government % 1.6%.8% 1.3% 1.7%.7% Manufacturing % -.6% 1.6% -.6% 1.% -.4%.I.R.E % 2.2% 3.% 1.6% 2.4%.9% Wholesale Trade % 1.3% 2.5% 1.% 1.9% 1.% Trans., Comm., Util % 1.1% 4.1% 1.9% 1.6%.6% Construction % 1.4% 5.9% 3.9% 2.8%.5% Mining % -6.% 2.% -1.6%.1% -.7% Total Employment % 1.9% 3.1% 1.9% 2.4% 1.3% Office-Using Employment % 3.% 3.5% 2.9% 3.% 1.9% Trucking/Warehouse Employment % 1.5% 2.2% 1.4% 1.7% 1.1% *All units (except for dollar denominated figures) in thousands. Current Economic Indicators Employment Labor orce Unemployment Employment Net Migration () Cost Indices (U.S. = 1) Growth 9/2 Growth 9/2 Rate 9/2 Volatility Ratio 21 Business Living.2% 2.5% 5.1% Sources: PPR; Economy.com 3Q22 PPR undamentals 22 by P R O P E R T Y & P O R T O L I O R E S E A R C H, I N C. All Rights Reserved.

3 PPR undamentals Apartment Supply, Demand, and Vacancy Demand & Supply (Units) 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, -1, -2, -3, Vacancy Rate Percentage Vacant Apartment Market Statistics (Units) Apt. Vacancy % 5.1% 5.7% 5.8% 6.6% 7.5% 7.2% % 6.7% 6.2% 6.% Apt. Multifamily Net Apt. Completions Apt. Inventory 2,715 3,412 1,779 3,28 2,216 1,51 1,657 1,299 1,715 2,253 2,236 3.% 3.7% 1.9% 3.3% 2.2% 1.% 1.6% 1.2% 1.6% 2.1% 2.% 1,726 2,97 5,9 3,285 2,284 3,474 1,414 1,453 1,87 2,357 2, % 21.5% 138.9% -34.4% -3.5% 52.1% -59.3% 2.8% 28.7% 26.% 18.1% 2,22 1,39 2,529 3,515 3,29 2,198 1,49 1,196 1,388 1,818 2,23 99,647 11,37 13,566 17,81 11, , , , , ,379 12, % 1.4% 2.5% 3.4% 3.1% 2.% 1.3% 1.% 1.2% 1.6% 1.9% Apt. Rent Index % 4.3% 6.% -3.4% 4.1% 1.4%.9% 2.9% 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% PPR/Dodge Pipeline Summary Multifamily Current Activity by Subclass Change in Rent vs. (Units) Change in Rent Bidding inal Pre- Deferred Abandoned 1, 2, 3, 4, Apartments Townhouse/Condo Low Income Unclassified Sources: PPR; McGraw-Hill Construction - Dodge; National Real Estate Index 5, 6, (Units) % 4,256 86% % 8 2% - % 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, % 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% 3Q22 PPR undamentals 22 by P R O P E R T Y P O R T O L I O R E S E A R C H, I N C. All Rights Reserved.

4 Supply, Demand, and Vacancy Demand & Supply (S) 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Vacancy Rate PPR undamentals Office Percentage Vacant , Office Market Statistics (S) Vacancy Inventory Rent Index 11.2% 11.5% 13.4% 13.% 17.2% 18.7% 17.2% 15.9% 15.6% 14.9% 14.% 1, , ,159 1, % 1.9% 1.2% 4.1% -1.3%.2% 3.1% 3.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 1,382 1,57 2,599 1,876 1,59 1, % 13.6% 65.6% -27.8% -19.5% 18.1% -49.3% 4.4% -19.2% -27.7% -17.7% ,397 1,524 1, ,79 4,68 42,77 43,61 45,225 46,159 46,697 47,542 48,458 49,181 49,671.9% 2.2% 3.4% 3.6% 3.7% 2.1% 1.2% 1.8% 1.9% 1.5% 1.% % 8.2% 6.3% 1.% -2.% -5.5% -2.7% 1.2% 2.9% 2.9% 2.7% PPR/Dodge Pipeline Summary Office Current Activity by Subclass Change in Rent vs. (S) Change in Rent 3, 12% Bidding 1% 2,5 inal 8% 2, 6% 4% 1,5 2% Pre- (S) % % 1, Low Rise 2,7 91% -2% Deferred Mid Rise - % 5-4% Abandoned High Rise - % -6% Office R&D 43 1% -8% Unclassified 223 8% 5 1, 1,5 2, 2,5 3, 3,5 Sources: PPR; McGraw-Hill Construction - Dodge; National Real Estate Index Q22 PPR undamentals 22 by P R O P E R T Y P O R T O L I O R E S E A R C H, I N C. All Rights Reserved.

5 Supply, Demand, and Vacancy Demand & Supply (S) 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Vacancy Rate PPR undamentals Retail Percentage Vacant Retail Market Statistics (S) Vacancy Inventory Rent Index 14.8% 14.% 1.7% 1.1% 12.9% 13.8% 12.5% 12.3% 12.6% 13.% 13.9% 1,171 2,6 3,284 1, ,528 1, % 4.2% 6.5% 3.4%.2% 1.6% 2.7% 1.9% 1.5% 1.6%.8% 2,63 1,624 2,367 3,99 2,728 2,133 1,177 1,65 1,544 1,519 1, % -21.3% 45.7% 31.% -12.% -21.8% -44.8% 4.2% -6.4% -1.6% -16.7% 1,875 1,861 1,483 1,653 2,119 1, ,81 1,239 1,412 1,335 57,261 59,122 6,65 62,258 64,377 66,124 66,878 67,959 69,198 7,61 71, % 3.3% 2.5% 2.7% 3.4% 2.7% 1.1% 1.6% 1.8% 2.% 1.9% % 1.6% 2.1% -6.1% -2.1% 1.% 1.8% 3.4% 1.4% 1.7%.2% PPR/Dodge Pipeline Summary Retail Current Activity by Subclass Change in Rent vs. (S) Change in Rent Bidding inal Pre- reestanding Stores Deferred Neighborhood Center Community Center Abandoned Regional Super Regional Outlet Unclassified Sources: PPR; McGraw-Hill Construction - Dodge; National Real Estate Index 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, (S) % % % - % - % - % 822 3% 3Q22 PPR undamentals 22 by P R O P E R T Y P O R T O L I O R E S E A R C H, I N C. All Rights Reserved. 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, % 2% % -2% -4% -6% -8%

6 Supply, Demand, and Vacancy Demand & Supply (S) 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Vacancy Rate PPR undamentals Warehouse Percentage Vacant Warehouse Market Statistics (S) Vacancy % 9.2% 1.% 1.4% 11.6% 11.5% 1.9% 9.4% 8.8% 8.9% 9.2% % 1.7% 1.5% 1.5%.6%.4% 1.% 2.% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 43 2,297 1,241 1,318 1, % 434.8% -46.% 6.3% -8.8% -75.7% -64.7% 77.8% 112.6% 59.1% 16.6% Inventory 37,161 38, 38,94 39,659 4,452 4,6 4,685 4,823 41,115 41,619 42,262.4% 2.3% 2.4% 1.9% 2.%.4%.2%.3%.7% 1.2% 1.5% Rent Index % 6.1% 3.% 2.% -.9% -1.8% -1.8% 1.4% 3.4% 3.6% 3.% PPR/Dodge Pipeline Summary Warehouse Current Activity by Subclass Change in Rent vs. (S) Change in Rent Bidding inal Pre- Deferred Abandoned 5 1, 1,5 2, 2,5 3, Distribution Warehouse/lex Light Industrial Unclassified Sources: PPR; McGraw-Hill Construction - Dodge; National Real Estate Index 3,5 (S) % 8 5% - % - % % 2,5 2, 1,5 1, % 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% 3Q22 PPR undamentals 22 by P R O P E R T Y P O R T O L I O R E S E A R C H, I N C. All Rights Reserved.

7 PPR undamentals Hotel Supply, Demand, and Occupancy Demand & Supply (Rooms) 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5-5 Occupancy Rate Percentage Occupied Hotel Market Statistics (Rooms) Occupancy 62.6% 64.6% 63.9% 64.4% 62.3% 62.8% 63.6% 65.2% 66.2% 67.2% 68.% 223 1,9 1, % 6.6% 1.5% 2.6% 1.1% 3.3% 2.% 2.9% 2.% 1.9% 1.9% 1,879 2, , % 8.% -6.% 82.1% -38.9% 1.3% -86.1% 15.7% 23.8% 3.2% 27.8% 1, , ,78 1, Inventory 24,252 25,69 27,98 28,477 29,797 3,513 3,732 3,866 3,995 31,149 31, % 3.4% 11.6% 1.8% 3.8% 3.8% 1.%.4%.4%.5%.6% Room Rate Index % -2.3% 4.5% 2.1% -.8%.3%.4% 1.3% 1.8% 2.1% 2.4% RevPar Index % 1.7% -1.2% 5.4% -6.2%.9% 2.7% 4.% 3.5% 3.8% 3.8% PPR/Dodge Pipeline Summary Bidding inal Pre- Deferred Abandoned Current Activity Change in Room Rate vs. (Rooms) Change in Room Rate 2,5 7% 6% 2, 5% 4% 1,5 3% 2% 1, 1% % 5-1% -2% -3% 5 1, 1,5 2, 2, Sources: PPR; McGraw-Hill Construction - Dodge; Smith Travel Research 3Q22 PPR undamentals 22 by P R O P E R T Y P O R T O L I O R E S E A R C H, I N C. All Rights Reserved.

8 PPR undamentals Single amily Housing Single amily Multifamily 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Single amily Market Single amily Change in Home Price 12, 12% 1, 1% 8% 8, 6% 4% 6, 2% % 4, -2% -4% 2, -6% -8% % Sources: PPR; Economy.com Single amily Market Statistics ,952 7,9 8,647 8,448 9,224 1,172 9,72 9,631 9,559 9,318 9, % 13.6% 9.4% -2.3% 9.2% 1.3% -4.6% -.7% -.7% -2.5% -.7% Completions 6,974 7,571 8,377 8,465 8,685 1,13 9,953 9,587 9,625 9,389 9,287 Apartment Market Statistics Multifamily 1,726 2,97 5,9 3,285 2,284 3,474 1,414 1,453 1,87 2,357 2, % 21.5% 138.9% -34.4% -3.5% 52.1% -59.3% 2.8% 28.7% 26.% 18.1% Apartment Completions 2,22 1,39 2,529 3,515 3,29 2,198 1,49 1,196 1,388 1,818 2,23 3Q22 PPR undamentals 22 by P R O P E R T Y P O R T O L I O R E S E A R C H, I N C. All Rights Reserved.

9 PPR UNDAMENTALS Projects PPR undamentals Apartment Projects Title Address Units Stage Start Completion Sendero Ridge Apartments 2424 Gold Canyon Rd /1 2/3 Central Heatherwilde Estates Apartments 357 Planned Southwest White Rock Apartment Homes 311 Thousand Oaks Dr 336 3/2 3/3 Unknown Dominion Park Apartments redricksburg & Gus Eckert, San Antonio 28 12/1 12/2 Near Dove Valley Ranch USAA Blvd. 252 Completed 6/1 6/2 Costa Dorada 37 SE Military Road 248 Completed 1/1 1/2 South Central Bandera Commons 812 Mainland Road 248 Completed 1/1 8/2 Near Hill Country Villas Westover Hills 24 Completed 6/1 6/2 Chandler Crossing Apartments 4335 Chandler 216 3/2 1/3 Southeast The Villas at Westover Hills Douglas Rd. & Military Dr. (near TX 151) 196 Completed 3/1 3/2 ar 3Q22 PPR undamentals 22 by P R O P E R T Y P O R T O L I O R E S E A R C H, I N C. All Rights Reserved.

10 PPR UNDAMENTALS PPR undamentals Office Projects Projects Valero/UDS HQ Title Tenants: Valero/UDS Address S () Stage Start Completion 6 N Loop 164 W, on UDS campus 168 5/2 6/3 North Central Westover Hills Phase II (Chase) Westover Hills 16 7/2 5/3 Tenants: Chase Manhattan World Saving and Loan 411 Wiseman Blvd, SA TX 13 12/1 12/2 Clear Channel BTS Stone Oak Parkway and HWY Completed 1/1 7/2 Tenants: Clear Channel Stone Oak Three Twin Oaks Office Bldg Loop 164 N between Stone Oak, Stone Oak 16 Deferred our Twin Oaks Office Building Stone Oak 16 Deferred Randolph Brooks Administrative Service Center 2 acres Loop 164 access rd, Live Oak 1 Planned 7/2 5/3 University Park Tech Center IV Silicone Dr 89 Completed 1/1 5/2 Tenants: Kinetic One Stop Development Services Center - City of SA S Alamo & S lores 75 Completed 1/2 9/2 South Two Twin Oaks Office Building Loop 164 N between Stone 7 Completed 2/2 9/2 3Q22 PPR undamentals 22 by P R O P E R T Y P O R T O L I O R E S E A R C H, I N C. All Rights Reserved.

11 PPR UNDAMENTALS Projects PPR undamentals Retail Projects Title Address S () Stage Start Completion The Shops at La Cantera I-1 West & Loop 164 1,3 1/2 11/4 Tenants: Nordstrom (#84752; 144 ksf), Dillards (#8584; 48.4 ksf), Neiman Marcus, oley's The orum at Olympia Shopping Center Ph II 137 E Loop 164 N 388 Completed 6/1 6/2 Lowe's Anchored Power Center Harry Wurzbach & Austin Hwy. 3 1/2 3/3 Tenants: Lowe's and Wal-Mart Wal-Mart Supercenter #3279 Loop 41 & Rigsby Ave 268 Completed 12/1 9/2 Southeast Tenants: Wal-Mart Supercenter (24 ksf); Shoe Show, One Price Dress shop, Dollar Tree Super Store Bandera Point Shopping Center Bandera Road (SH 16) at 265 Completed 9/ 6/1 Costco Warehouse 121 N M Completed 2/2 8/2 Costco Tenants: Costco j p Hwy. 281 North intersection, Sonterra Park 148 Completed 3/2 7/2 North Central Lowe's Home Improvement Center 11718T N IH Completed 12/1 8/2 Tenants: Lowe's Home Improvement Center Lowe's Home Improvement 164 Blanco Rd 14 Completed 8/1 3/2 Tenants: Lowe's Home Improvement Northwoods Shopping Center Ph. IV US Hwy 281N & Loop Deferred North Central 3Q22 PPR undamentals 22 by P R O P E R T Y P O R T O L I O R E S E A R C H, I N C. All Rights Reserved.

12 PPR UNDAMENTALS PPR undamentals Warehouse Projects Projects Title I-1/123 Industrial Park - Phase I Address S () Stage Start Completion south of the Interstate 1/State Highway 123 intersection, Seguin 3 Planned 1/2 6/3 Budweiser Warehouse Highway 9 29 Completed 2/1 8/1 Tenants: Budweiser Warehouse North Central Tri County Distribution Center #3 245 Planned Labatt ood Service Building 158 Planned Alamo Downs Distribution Center II 125 Completed 1/1 1/2 Industry Park Distribution Center #3 119 Planned Tenants: Lagasse Inc. Green Mountain Business Park- Buildings 3 & 4 Southeast Corner Loop Completed 5/1 11/1 Coliseum Distribution Center #4 14 Planned O'Krent Carpet Warehouse & Office Building 275 N M 164 E 66 Completed 2/1 7/1 North Central SA 1 Warehouse 1757 Shipman Dr, San Ant 57 Completed 1/ 4/1 3Q22 PPR undamentals 22 by P R O P E R T Y P O R T O L I O R E S E A R C H, I N C. All Rights Reserved.

13 PPR UNDAMENTALS PPR undamentals Hotel Projects Projects Sheraton Riverwalk Hotel Title Address Rooms Stage Start Completion SW IH 37 and Market Street, Riverwalk/Convention Center 1,2 Cancelled 6/2 1/5 CBD PGA Village San Antonio - Marriott East of 281 near Evans Rd 282 Planned ar North La Quinta Inn & Suites 85 Halm Blvd, Airport 276 Completed 6/1 12/1 North Radisson Resort Hill Country 98 Westover Hills Blvd, Westover Hills 227 Completed 1/1 9/1 Drury Inn & Suites 986 Interstate Hwy 1 West 21 Completed 2/1 7/2 ar North Hill Country Suites Hotel US Highway 281 N, San Antonio, TX Completed 1/1 9/1 ar North Best Western Hill Country Suites Hotel Loop 164, along Highway Completed 9/2 2/2 North Central Hawthorn Suites New Braunfels, TX , New Braunfels 69 Planned Best Western Alamo Suites 12 El Paso St San Antonio, TX Completed 2/1 8/1 Central Quality Inn and Suites Blk Hwy /2 12/2 ar North 3Q22 PPR undamentals 22 by P R O P E R T Y P O R T O L I O R E S E A R C H, I N C. All Rights Reserved.