Table of Contents. Letter from the President Page 4. Regional Market Trends Page 5. The Luxury Market Page 8. San Francisco County Page 12

Transcription

1 FOURTH QUARTER 2016

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3 Table of Contents Letter from the President Page 4 Regional Market Trends Page 5 The Luxury Market Page 8 San Francisco County Page 12 San Mateo County Page 16 Marin County Page 18 Napa County Page 20 Sonoma County Page 22 Alameda County Page 24 Contra Costa County Page 26 Counties Represented Napa Sonoma Marin San Francisco Contra Costa Alameda San Mateo Page 3 McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2016

4 Letter from the President Charles Moore President and CEO Q s Strong Sales & Growing Inventory Offer Optimistic 2017 Outlook In many ways, Q was a tale of two halves. The buyer holdout that stretched into mid-november was countered by major action in San Francisco, the Mid-Peninsula and Alameda County all beneficiaries of pent-up demand caused by the market s uncertainty regarding the election. As such, a year marked by increased stability in both sales prices and sales volume witnessed a streak of dramatic behavior more in line with what we d witnessed in previous years. However, once the dust settled a strong and stable market emerged. And so did some valuable insight toward early-2017 market activity. A main story this quarter was the massive movement in the upper-end of the San Francisco and Mid-Peninsula markets. When the economy regulated in the wake of the elections, a noticeable amount of high-seven-figure and eight-figures homes that had been on the market for months were finally absorbed. This activity helped San Francisco to a record quarterly average sales price of $1.833 million, and San Mateo County to its second-highest-ever average sales price of $1.66 million. San Francisco also posted a staggering 25 percent year-over-year gain in its luxury sector defined by the top ten percent of sales in an area. While these numbers were certainly impressive, there were plenty of signs in more affordably priced areas like Contra Costa, Alameda and Napa Counties that should motivate buyers to move at a quicker pace. Napa County, in particular, saw its average sales price down 13 percent Once the dust settled a strong and stable market emerged. And so did some valuable insight toward early-2017 market activity. and its total sales volume up by the same margin. While a swing that heavily in favor of buyers shouldn t last long, it is a signal of a lower-end market that is expected to deliver an influx of new inventory in early We can also look to reports regarding increased wage growth and continued strong indicators in the tech sector to help support an active real estate market. To this end, California Association of REALTORS Vice President and Chief Economist, Leslie Appleton-Young recently said, With the California economy continuing to outperform the nation, the demand for housing will remain robust even with supply and affordability constraints still very much in evidence. The net result will be California s housing market posting a modest increase in Even modest sales growth in 2017 would be a boon to an area that saw six of its seven counties sales volume dip due to limited inventory for the fiscal year of And when one factors in that sales prices are not expected to climb by more than a few percentage points on the year, market health looks even more stable. After all, an easing in the rate of appreciation also signals a more balanced market that allows buyers and sellers to perform due diligence, giving both a strong voice at the negotiating table. Download the complete Quarterly Report at: mcguire.com/quarterly_report Page 4 McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2016

5 Regional Market Trends Much of the market s activity in Q directly correlates to typical patterns we see in an election year. Prior to the election, buyers were generally timid, adhering to the caution expressed in reports of economic uncertainty. Following the election and once the stock market began to climb it was a different climate, with the luxury market taking off, sales picking up steadily and record sales prices being set in several Bay Area counties. In the end patterns emerged that showed both a very lucrative outlook for sellers as well as a more prominent place at the negotiating table for buyers. The upper end of the market specifically came alive in San Francisco and the Mid-Peninsula. With a flurry of high-priced sales in the wake of the election, San Francisco posted a record $1.833 million average sale. San Mateo County s $1.66 million average sale was its secondhighest mark in history and included many top-dollar homes that had been on the market for the better part of the year finally closing. The strength of these numbers was only bolstered by the fact that sales volume also stayed strong, with the Mid-Peninsula up 9 percent year-over-year. To the point of strong sales prices, it should be noted that all four regions posted their highest Q4 numbers in market history. That said, things were a bit more complicated in the North Bay. In direct opposition to San Francisco and the Mid-Peninsula, the affluent area of Marin County saw its $1.434 million average sales price down 5 percent year-over-year, as well as sales volume down 6 percent. Sonoma County s 15 percent year-over-year average sales price was at an all-time high, but its sales volume dropped by 10 percent. Napa County flipped this pattern, with its average sales price down 13 percent year-over-year, but its sales volume up 13 percent. Much of this North Bay activity can be attributed to erratic behavior during an election cycle, a depleted inventory of high-priced homes in Marin County, and a surplus of affordably priced homes opening up in Napa and Sonoma Counties. Where other markets showed more erratic behavior than what we ve been accustomed to for the past year, the East Bay played a steady role in the Bay Area marketplace. Contra Costa County and Alameda County average home sale prices were up 6 percent and 9 percent year-over-year, respectively. Each county also stayed within a two percent range of its Q sales volume figures. A final trend that existed in these two counties and across much of the Bay Area was average days on market (DOM) rising slightly. If anything, this should signal a playing field that has gravitated more toward buyers over the past year. All REGIONS Average Sales Price Days on Market Average Price Per Sq. Ft. Quantity Q $1,004, $ change 4% 16% -2% -11% Q $966, $ Q $1,004, $ change 7% 3% -7% 0% Q $934, $ $2,000 $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 0 Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands) East Bay North Bay Mid-Peninsula San Francisco Page 5 McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2016

6 Regional Market Share The Bay Area netted a total of $8.581 billion in total sales this quarter. The East Bay provided 58 percent of all sales and 46 percent of the cash share. The Mid-Peninsula contributed 13 percent of all sales and 21 percent of total cash share. The North Bay claimed 22 percent of all sales and 20 percent of total cash share. San Francisco added 7 percent of all sales and 13 percent of total cash share. All of these figures were generally in line with typical sales and cash share ratios for the season. Market Share by Unit A San Francisco 7 % A San Francisco 13 % Market Share by Volume Mid-Peninsula 13 % Mid-Peninsula 21 % North Bay 22 % North Bay 20 % East Bay 58 % East Bay 46 % Page 6 McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2016

7 Quantity Sold by Price Single-Family Homes North Bay: 1848 Marin, Napa, Sonoma East Bay: 4979 Contra Costa, Alameda San Francisco: 612 > $5,000,000 < $4,000,000 < $3,000,000 Mid-Peninsula: 1104 < $2,000,000 < $1,000,000 > $1,000,000 Page 7 McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2016

8 The Luxury Market Defined by the top 10 percent of an area s sales, the luxury market experienced massive growth in what can best be described as a late-year breakthrough. With election concerns in the rearview and a healthy stock market back in place, high-priced homes moved swiftly in areas like San Francisco and Mid-Peninsula as 2016 came to a close. To the relief of many sellers, this included a bevy of $5 million-plus homes that had spent hundreds of days on the market finally closing. San Francisco s $5.653 million average home sale was up a massive 25 percent year-over-year, with the bottom-end of this market up $450,000 from where it was in Q A 78 percent rise in average DOM from the previous year can be attributed to homes that had been on the market for many months finally finding buyers. This included a $21.8 million home in home that had been on the market for 213 days. The Mid-Peninsula s $5.073 million average sale was up 10 percent from Q4 2015, and also included a 10 percent gain in sales volume. Atherton continued to be a main driver of gains in this region, with its six eight-figure sales including a Bay Area-high $34.9 million listing that closed in early December after spending 269 DOM. While steady, market activity in the North Bay and East Bay was less remarkable this quarter. Average sales prices in both regions barely moved from a year prior, while sales volume also showed little deviation. This activity should not come as much of surprise as the two regions are home to four of the most affordably priced counties which is exactly where buyers are turning when they re looking for luxury market alternatives. Page 8 McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2016

9 SAN FRANCISCO Average Sales Price Quantity Days on Market Average Price Per Sq. Ft. Q $5,653, $927 change 28% 15% 8% -27% Q $4,426, $1,267 Q $5,653, $927 change 25% -10% 78% -18% Q $4,529, $1,132 MID-PENINSULA Average Sales Price Quantity Days on Market Average Price Per Sq. Ft. Q $5,073, $1,169 change 5% -3% 38% 1% Q $4,830, $1,157 Q $5,073, $1,169 change 10% 10% 20% 4% Q $4,631, $1,120 NORTH BAY Average Sales Price Quantity Days on Market Average Price Per Sq. Ft. Q $2,614, $879 change 0% -14% 11% 4% Q $2,620, $845 Q $2,614, $879 change 1% -3% -3% 14% Q $2,593, $770 EAST BAY Average Sales Price Quantity Days on Market Average Price Per Sq. Ft. Q $1,764, $558 change 0% -12% 21% 1% Q $1,764, $554 Q $1,764, $558 change 8% 6% 20% 12% Q $1,633, $497 Page 9 McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2016

10 Bay Area Luxury Market Share Mid-Peninsula dominated the luxury market, with 35 percent of all sales and 38 percent of total cash share, which equates to approximately $950 million. San Francisco s impressive Q4 behavior amounted to 24 percent of all sales and 26 percent of cash share. The North Bay posted 20 percent of all sales and 18 percent of cash share. East Bay had a slower quarter in this sector, posting just 22 percent of all sales and 17 percent of cash share. In all, luxury sales for Q totaled an impressive $2.503 billion A Market Share by Unit A Market Share by Volume San Francisco 24 % Mid-Peninsula 35 % San Francisco 26 % Mid-Peninsula 38 % North Bay 20 % North Bay 18 % East Bay 22 % East Bay 17 % Page 10 McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2016

11 Sales Trends Price Range As a Percent of Sales $0-$500K $500K-$1M $1M-$2M $2M-$3M $3M-$5M $5M+ San Francisco Single-Family Homes 0 % 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 100 % Luxury Homes Price Per Square Foot > $1,000/sqft >= $1,000/sqft >= $900/sqft >= $700/sqft >= $500/sqft < $500/sqft Q % 51 % 12 % 8 % = = 3 % Q Q % 29 % 51 % 12 % 6 % 29 % 52 % 11 % 5 % = 1.5 % 3 % Mid-Peninsula 0 % 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 100 % Q % 47 % 10 % 5 % = = 2 % Q % 51 % 10 % 4 % 2 % Q % 40% 10% =1% 5% 2 % North Bay 0 % 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 100 % Q % 53 % 19 % 4 % = = 1 % 1 % Q Q % 53 % 18 % 4 % 30% 47 % 17 % 4 % = 2 %.5 % 2 % 1 % East Bay 0 % 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 100 % Q % 51 % 20 % = = 2 % Q Q %.33 % 26 % 51 % 21 % 0.03 % 33 % 40 % 16 % 1 % = Page 11 McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2016

12 San Francisco County Single-Family Homes A surge in sales of luxury-priced homes in the city gave way to Q seeing the highest average home sales price in market history. Its $1.833 million average was up 13 percent year-over-year or more than $200,000 per sale. The 612 homes sold this quarter was right on pace with the previous fourth quarter, and represented the highest quarterly sales volume of These strong figures can be partially tied to a resurgent buyer confidence once the financial sector found its footing in mid-november, ending a typical trend of buyer hesitation that exists prior to presidential elections. It might also explain a subtle uptick in the average 34 DOM, as many of the high-priced homes that sold this quarter had been on the market for much of SAN FRANCISCO - SFH Average Sales Price Days on Market Average Price Per Sq. Ft. Q $1,833, $870 change 14% 0% 2% Q $1,607, $854 Q $1,833, $870 change 13% 22% 5% Q $1,624, $829 Page 12 McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2016

13 Quantity Sold Five Years/Quarter $1,800 $1,700 $1,600 $1,500 $1,400 $1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900 Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands) Sales Price Change San Francisco homes netted a Bay Area-high 12 percent on top of initial listing when no price change was required. Meanwhile, sellers who tested the market recovered a respectable 91 percent of initial asking price. Sales without price change with price change Q % -9% Q % -8% San Francisco Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot Average Sales Price by Neighborhood - The Top 10 Pacific Heights and Presidio Heights showed impressive year-over-year gains of 28 percent and 36 percent, respectively. This upward movement in Presidio Heights helped cap a fiscal year in which the area saw a 15 percent gain from City Q Q change Pacific Heights $7,740,469 $6,068,750 28% Downtown $7,200,000 N/A N/A Sea Cliff $6,018,333 N/A N/A Presidio Heights $5,835,000 $4,290,000 36% Cow Hollow $4,887,500 $5,841,429-16% > $1000/sqft < $1000/sqft < $900/sqft < $700/sqft < $500/sqft Mission Dolores $4,800,000 $3,218,750 49% Russian Hill $4,445,978 $4,943,200-10% Marina $3,943,250 $4,353,698-9% Lower Pacific Heights $3,591,667 $2,906,000 24% Jordan Park $3,325,000 $3,537,500-6% Page 13 McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2016

14 San Francisco County Condominiums San Francisco condominiums performed in stable fashion relative to recent activity, with neither the $1.23 million average sale or the 600 units sold showing noticeable deviation from the previous year. This remains one of the more predictable markets, as San Francisco s average condominium sale has stayed within a price range fluctuating by only $100,000 for the past eight quarters. The average 39 DOM did jump slightly here, which coupled with stabilizing prices, should give buyers a bit more of a say in the negotiating process. The completion of several major condominium projects in late-2016 and early-2017 could also begin to open the market up slightly in favor of buyers. SAN FRANCISCO - CONDOMINIUMS Average Sales Price Days on Market Average Price Per Sq. Ft. Q $1,833, $870 change 14% 0% 2% Q $1,607, $854 Q $1,833, $870 change 13% 22% 5% Q $1,624, $829 Page 14 McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2016

15 $ Quantity Sold Five Years/Quarter $1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900 $800 Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands) Sales Price Change Units that required no price change netted 5 percent on top initial asking price, while sellers who tested the market recovered a strong 93 percent of initial listing. The balance between these trends would indicate that condominiums are for the most part being priced in accordance with buyer expectations. Sales without price change with price change Q % -7% Q % -5% San Francisco Condominium Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft < $1000/sqft < $900/sqft < $700/sqft < $500/sqft Average Sales Price by Neighborhood - The Top 10 Presidio Heights finished out a strong fiscal year up 17 percent from the 2015 fiscal year with Q posting a 43 percent gain in Q South of Market, Laurel Heights and Yerba Buena all also posted gains of more than 30 percent from Q City Q Q change Presidio Heights $2,351,438 $1,639,832 43% Jordan Lake $1,995,000 $1,423,333 40% Yerba Buena $1,990,888 $1,528,278 30% Cow Hollow $1,759,286 $1,940,222-9% Russian Hill $1,682,861 $1,769,656-5% Marina $1,672,389 $1,556,667 7% South of Market $1,652,647 $998,408 66% Pacific Heights $1,621,878 $1,646,235-1% Alamo Square $1,605,000 $1,662,500-3% Inner Sunset $1,585,200 $1,266,250 25% Page 15 McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2016

16 San Mateo County Single-Family Homes The Mid-Peninsula s $1.66 million average home sale was the second-highest in market history, and a 6 percent gain from the previous year. The 1,104 homes sold in San Mateo County was up 9 percent year-over-year. The average 30 DOM represented just a slightly slower pace for the region than what we ve seen in previous quarters. Similar to San Francisco s single-family home market, the Mid-Peninsula s strong figures this quarter can be attributed in part to pentup demand leading up to the November elections, and the windfall of high-priced homes that finally moved once economic forecasts regained stability. SAN MATEO COUNTY Average Sales Price Days on Market Average Price Per Sq. Ft. Q $1,659, $816 change 2% 16% 0% Q $1,632, $812 Q $1,659, $816 change 6% 9% 6% Q $1,566, $771 Page 16 McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2016

17 Quantity Sold Five Years/Quarter $1,700 Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands) $1, $1,500 $1,400 $1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900 Sales Price Change Homes that required no price change added 3 percent on top Average Sales Price by City - initial list price. When sellers tested the market, just 86 percent The Top 10 of their initial asking price was recovered. This last figure should give buyers some optimism about negotiations in the new year. Sales without price change with price change Q % -14 % Q % -13 % San Mateo County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot Atherton, one of the Bay Area s most affluent enclaves, continued its pattern of growth with four sales above the $16 million mark and a 9 percent year-over-year gain. Portola Valley also performed well, with a $ million closing and seven additional sales above $2.5 million. City Q Q change Atherton $8,315,292 $7,227,000 15% Hillsborough $4,471,510 $4,421,010 1% Portola Valley $3,023,225 $3,029,258 0% Menlo Park $2,374,916 $2,295,988 3% > $1000/sqft < $1000/sqft < $900/sqft < $700/sqft < $500/sqft Burlingame $2,159,076 $2,080,578 4% Palo Alto $2,085,000 N/A N/A San Gregorio $1,920,000 $732, % Pescadero $1,828,222 $1,037,229 76% San Carlos $1,791,032 $1,657,961 8% Redwood Shores $1,680,375 $1,674,970 0% Page 17 McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2016

18 Marin County Single-Family Homes Marin County did experience a bit more buyer hesitation, along with some potential high-end sellers staying on the sidelines, than its luxury counterparts did in San Francisco and Mid-Peninsula. These trends manifested in an average home sales price of $1.434 million that was down 5 percent year-over-year. The 485 homes sold was also down 6 percent from Q Meanwhile, the increased average 59 DOM further proved that buyers are biding their time more carefully and taking advantage of a playing field that is continually leveling out. As the first quarter of 2017 quickly gets underway, it would not be surprising to see an increase in high-priced, desirable homes hitting the market and in turn, average sales prices moving back toward the $1.5 million mark. MARIN COUNTY Average Sales Price Days on Market Average Price Per Sq. Ft. Q $1,433, $634 change 0% 21% -4% Q $1,431, $658 Q $1,433, $634 change -5% 12% -2% Q $1,515, $646 Page 18 McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2016

19 $1,600 $1,500 $1,400 $1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $ Quantity Sold Five Years/Quarter Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands) Sales Price Change Homes that required no price change netted 102 percent of initial asking price, while sellers who tested the market recovered 89 percent of their initial offer. While neither of these trends deviate much from past activity in Marin County, it does suggest that things are beginning to swing in favor of buyer-accessibility. Sales without price change with price change Q % -11% Q % -10% Average Sales Price by City - The Top 10 Of the cities with sizable data pools, Larkspur and Kentfield saw some of the strongest gains, with year-over-year average sales prices up 14 percent and 11 percent, respectively. City Q Q change Marin County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft < $1000/sqft < $900/sqft < $700/sqft < $500/sqft Belvedere $3,381,909 $3,762,000-10% Stinson Beach $3,250,833 $1,697,143 92% Ross $3,012,696 $5,287,500-43% Tiburon $2,749,031 $3,104,293-11% Kentfield $2,638,854 $2,366,813 11% Sausalito $2,191,825 $2,110,563 4% Larkspur $1,945,467 $1,713,393 14% San Geronimo $1,807,000 $680, % Mill Valley $1,755,215 $1,813,595-3% Muir Beach $1,600,000 $1,338,667 20% Page 19 McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2016

20 Napa County Single-Family Homes Among all seven counties we represent, Napa County displayed what could be considered the most peculiar trends of this fourth quarter. The $802,983 average home sale was down 13 percent year-over-year its lowest point since Q Yet, during this same time sales volume was up a Bay Area-leading 13 percent year-over-year, with a total of 308 homes sold in Napa County for Q Furthering these anomalous trends was the county s average 74 DOM moving 12 percent faster than a year prior. The best way to make sense of all this is to look at Napa County s relative affordability, along with the fact that its inventory is increasing and many of its highestpriced homes have already left the market. In other words, sellers should not worry about any major devaluation of Napa County properties. It would be very surprising to see the average sales price continue to dip, as lower-priced alternatives to city living have been highly in demand and will continue to be throughout NAPA COUNTY Average Sales Price Days on Market Average Price Per Sq. Ft. Q $802, $439 change -10% -4% 0% Q $887, $440 Q $802, $439 change -13% -12% 0% Q $928, $438 Page 20 McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2016

21 Quantity Sold Five Years/Quarter $900 Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands) $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 Sales Price Change Sellers priced realistically this quarter, as homes that required no price change moved right around original asking price, while sellers who tested the market were able to recover 90 percent of their initial listing. Sales without price change with price change Q % -10% Q % -10% Napa County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft < $1000/sqft < $900/sqft < $700/sqft < $500/sqft Average Sales Price by City - The Top 10 Average sales price gains were hard to find in a quarter that saw many of the county s most affordable homes leave the market. Over the course of 2016, Angwin, Calistoga and St. Helena proved to be some of the most rapidly gaining areas. City Q Q change Rutherford $3,000,000 $3,938,000-24% Oakville $1,835,000 N/A N/A St. Helena $1,679,616 $1,873,341-10% Calistoga $1,174,179 $668,507 76% Yountville $1,118,063 $1,948,722-43% Napa $719,728 $879,647-18% Deer Park $605,000 $600,000 1% American Canyon $494,867 $446,167 11% Pope Valley $449,500 $179, % Angwin $255,000 $665,000-62% Page 21 McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2016

22 Sonoma County Single-Family Homes Sonoma County posted a Bay Area-high 15 percent year-over-year gain on average sales price. This quarter s average sales price of $720,875 was also the highest figure in county history, and the thirdconsecutive quarter in which Sonoma County had topped the $700,000 mark. North Bay activity was somewhat scattered this quarter, therefore its record average sales price came a 10 percent drop-off in sales volume, with a total of 1,055 homes sold. Both of these figures, along with an average 67 DOM, can be tied to limited inventory within the county. These trends should not come as a surprise and should continue to with some degree of predictability in 2017, as Sonoma County remains the most affordable of all seven Bay Area counties we serve. SONOMA COUNTY Average Sales Price Days on Market Average Price Per Sq. Ft. Q $720, $391 change 2% 11% -1% Q $703, $395 Q $720, $391 change 15% 5% 5% Q $627, $373 Page 22 McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2016

23 Quantity Sold Five Years/Quarter Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands) $650 $600 $550 $500 $450 $400 Sales Price Change Homes were generally priced in accordance with what buyers were looking to spend, as homes that required no price change closed just above their initial asking price and sellers who tested the market were able to recover 92 percent of their initial listing. $ Average Sales Price by City - The Top 10 Sales without price change with price change Q % -8% Q % -9% Glen Ellen and Healdsburg posted year-over-year gains of 48 percent and 34 percent, respectively. Glen Ellen also ended the fiscal year up 44 percent on the average home sale, while Healdsburg was up a still-impressive 16 percent over the previous fiscal year. Sonoma County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft < $1000/sqft < $900/sqft < $700/sqft < $500/sqft City Q Q change Glen Ellen $1,922,182 $1,299,960 48% Occidental $1,199,747 $719,380 67% Healdsburg $1,124,750 $840,406 34% Penngrove $1,031,250 $750,200 37% Geyserville $1,004,000 $957,274 5% Sebastopol $991,946 $819,754 21% Bodega Bay $924,136 $842,739 10% Kenwood $922,500 $1,691,333-45% Sonoma $914,359 $1,001,582-9% The Sea Ranch $861,741 $812,133 6% Page 23 McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2016

24 Alameda County Single-Family Homes Alameda County saw its floodgates open in terms of high-end sales following the 2016 election much like San Francisco and Mid-Peninsula. The $873,681 average home sale here was up 9 percent year-overyear, amounting to the second-highest average sales price in market history. Q also marked the seventh-consecutive quarter in which Alameda County bested the $800,000 mark, providing a strong and stable selling platform for The 2,438 homes sold here was down just 2 percent from the previous year nowhere near a large enough gap to offset the quarter s massive average sales price gains. As in most Bay Area counties, the average 26 DOM here marked a subtle slowing of sales pace. ALAMEDA COUNTY Average Sales Price Days on Market Average Price Per Sq. Ft. Q $873, $497 change 1% 28% 1% Q $863, $495 Q $873, $497 change 9% 7% 6% Q $803, $468 Page 24 McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2016

25 $900 $850 $800 $750 $700 $650 $600 $550 $500 $ Quantity Sold Five Years/Quarter Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands) Sales Price Change Homes that required no price change netted 107 percent of initial asking price. This was the strongest gain among all seven Bay Area counties. Meanwhile, when sellers tested the market they were able to recover 93 percent of their initial listing. Both of these figures point to a market that is squarely in favor of sellers at the moment. Average Sales Price by City - The Top 10 Piedmont capped a year of strong upward growth with a $2.15 million average home sales price, up 14 percent from Q Oakland also showed an impressive 11 percent gain very much in line with its 10 percent gain for the 2016 fiscal year. Sales without price change with price change Q % -7% Q % -6% Alameda County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft < $1000/sqft < $900/sqft < $700/sqft < $500/sqft City Q Q change Piedmont $2,150,143 $1,881,056 14% Sunol $1,949,667 $1,300,000 50% Berkeley $1,269,275 $1,175,804 8% Pleasanton $1,244,234 $1,209,410 3% Fremont $1,030,986 $943,116 9% Alameda $1,013,499 $1,030,420-2% Albany $1,003,213 $997,175 1% Dublin $983,409 $915,656 7% Union City $809,295 $747,025 8% Castro Valley $789,733 $728,062 8% Page 25 McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2016

26 Contra Costa County Single-Family Homes Contra Costa County closed out the year in strong and steady fashion, with both its average home sales price and total sales volume up from Q Specifically, this quarter s average home sales price of $705,947 was up 6 percent year-over-year, and the Bay Area-leading 2,541 sales in Contra Costa County represented its highest fourth quarter figure since Q Turnover remained fast at an average of 30 DOM. As inventory continues to open up in 2017, more of this strong and steady behavior can be expected. CONTRA COSTA COUNTY Average Sales Price Days on Market Average Price Per Sq. Ft. Q $705, $349 change -3% 25% -2% Q $724, $356 Q $705, $349 change 6% 0% 5% Q $663, $332 Page 26 McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2016

27 Quantity Sold Five Years/Quarter $800 Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands) $700 $600 $500 $400 Sales Price Change Average Sales Price by City Contra Costa County was perhaps the most accurately priced - The Top 10 Bay Area $ county this quarter in terms of a middle-ground between buyer and seller expectations. Homes that required El Cerrito performed very well this quarter, with its $871,523 no price change netted just 2 percent on top of initial asking price, and sellers who tested the market lost only 7 percent of average home sales price up 18 percent year-over-year. This capped a fiscal year in which the city of roughly 24,000 residents their initial listing. Sales without price change with price change Q % -7% Q % -7% saw its average home sale up 9 percent from 2015 making it one of Contra Costa County s strongest year-round performers. Kensington and Pleasanton also posted double-digit year-overyear gains for Q City Q Q change Alamo $1,850,908 $1,995,754-7% Contra Costa County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot Orinda $1,570,906 $1,278,940 23% Diablo $1,522,000 $1,800,000-15% Danville $1,326,459 $1,267,632 5% Lafayette $1,322,195 $1,409,199-6% > $1000/sqft < $1000/sqft < $900/sqft < $700/sqft < $500/sqft Moraga $1,236,736 $1,303,028-5% Kensington $1,178,704 $1,075,833 10% Walnut Creek $1,060,972 $1,021,354 4% San Ramon $1,058,720 $1,021,103 4% El Cerrito $871,523 $740,850 18% Page 27 McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2016

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