SEPTEMBER2014 MARKETUPDATE NORTH WEST INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS

Transcription

1 MARKETUPDATE Photograph: Johnson Controls Speke - Sold By B8RE, 2014

2 INVESTMENT MARKET SUMMARY Total industrial volumes during 2014 stood at 230m (28 deals), a 28% decrease on the 2013 figure of 320m (36 deals), but double the 115m (14 deals) transacted during Key transactions in 2014 include Johnson Controls, Speke by F&C ( 11.9m, 6.45%), Deeside Industrial Estate, Deeside by Centurian/SWIP ( 34.0m, 7.69%) and Premier Park, Trafford Park by Lothbury ( 19.25m, 5.75%). FIGURE 1: NORTH WEST INDUSTRIAL INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS Multi-Let 8 7 Majority of demand is focussed on assets in excess of 4m on the back of UK Institutions dominating the market. The average lot size for 2014 was 7.94m. Demand for Big Sheds remains strong with 10 deals completing for units over 100,000 sq ft. There has also been increased trading of multi-let estates, which accounted for circa 45% of overall transactions in 2014, compared with 25% in We consider this is due to increased supply on the back of a return to strong values. Millions Single Let Total Area (sq ft) Millions sq ft Intense competition for London / South-East assets is resulting in an increased focus on the regions, driven by attractive yields and strong occupational market. Yields continue to harden, due to a lack of available stock and continued investor appetite. Investor interest remains focussed on prime assets, however the lack of available prime stock has resulted in secondary assets also being targeted by investors. There is still a limit regarding how far up the risk curve most investors are prepared to venture and as such poor secondary / tertiary trading remains subdued FIGURE 2: PRIME INDUSTRIAL DISTRIBUTION MARKET YIELDS 2 1 Strong demand continues into 2014, with circa 200m+ (20+ deals) 4m sq ft of stock sold / under offer as at September With a continued shortage of prime assets and a view by some of the main funds that pricing has peaked, we would expect increased targeting of secondary property, hence a narrowing of the prime and secondary yield gap. TABLE 1: NORTH WEST YIELD PROFILES 9% 8% 7% NW Prime Distribution London Prime Distribution SE Prime Distribution CLASS VALUE TREND YIELDS 6% Prime Distribution (15 year assumed term) 5.75%+ Good Secondary Distribution 6.75% %+ 5% Older Secondary Distribution 8.5%+ Prime Industrial Estate 5.75%+ Older Terrace/ Estate 7.5%+ 4%

3 OCCUPATIONAL MARKET SUMMARY 2014 has seen a significant fall in Big Box take up to 1.07 million sq ft. All notable transactions were limited to second-hand buildings as no new stock was available in the Prime NW Core (M6 / M62 / M60 corridors). Existing stock has fallen from 5.85m sq ft to 4.80m sq ft from 2013 to the end of Rental growth has continued across the refurbished multi-let sector. In addition several significant transactions have been concluded on larger second-hand distribution facilities in excess of quoting rentals. We are seeing the first signs of the return of speculative development, both in the single let distribution sector and the multi-let smaller unit sector. This is highlighted in the Table 2 opposite. There is further potential for additional spec development in the North West region. Our market intelligence considers the sites detailed on the next page to be realistic opportunities currently being pursued. There are still many unsatisfied occupier requirements in the North West region. In many cases occupiers cannot wait the lead-in period for design and build. This will help to increase developer appetite for speculative development in Major infrastructure works in the region will support the growth of the logistics industry over the forthcoming decade. The Liverpool 2 Container Port will enable handling capacity at the Port to be doubled and also allow larger vessels to come to Liverpool direct from Asia, rather than currently coming in smaller vessels from Rotterdam. The new Mersey Gateway Bridge is also due to be completed in 2017, which will provide faster links to the region, linking the M56 and M62 with South Liverpool. These infrastructure developments together with new facilities at Port Salford are expected to have a significant impact on the demand for warehousing accommodation in the region. The region currently lacks deliverable strategic sites on major motorway junctions to facilitate the anticipated growth. Unlike much of the South East and Midlands, the North West has historically not been able to bring forward 200+ acre sites such as DRIFT and Magna Park. Whilst Parkside Colliery and Carrington will provide much needed land, they are both long-term sites and will not be developed for the foreseeable future. The North West desperately needs an allocation of oven-ready sites over the next 24 months. TABLE 2: SPECULATIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NW REGION Landlord / Developer Development Location Unit Size (sq ft) Single / Multi-let Development Chancerygate S Park Stockport 80,000 Multi-let Capital & Centric Lightbox Wirral 18,000 Multi-let Redsun Developments Innovate Speke 75,000 Four unit scheme New Capital Venus 110 Knowsley 110,000 Flintrock Venus 200 Knowsley 200,000 TABLE 3: NORTH WEST VALUES CLASS Rents Capital Value TREND RENTS Prime Distribution (15 year assumed term) Secondary Distribution New/Modern 10-15,000 sq ft Older 10 15,000 sq ft LAND VALUES Prime Site Secondary Site 350, ,000 per acre 125, ,000 per acre

4 B8 BLOG - RUMOURED SPEC... Canmoor Wilson Bowden / RDA Kingsway Rochdale 210,000 Graftongate / Peel Hareshill Heywood 90,000 Haydock Up to 300,000 Marshall CDP Stoford / Gallan Group Synergi Irlam 190,000 Harbert Heywood Distribution Park Heywood 150,000 & 70,000 Two units Marshall CDP Estuary Business Park Speke 105,000 & 130,000 Two units Union Square Trafford Park 175,000 Redsun Developments Turbine Park Wirral 100,000 Multi-let Harbert Trafford Point Trafford Park 100,000 & 140,000 Two units Peel Liverpool Intl. Business Park Speke 175,000 Single Unit

5 INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS OF NOTE, 2014 INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS OF NOTE, 2014 ADDRESS DATE AREA (SQ FT) TENANT APPROX. TERM CERTAIN PURCHASE PRICE YIELD ADDRESS DATE AREA (SQ FT) TENANT APPROX. TERM CERTAIN PURCHASE PRICE YIELD MULTI LET SINGLE LET Premier Park, Trafford Park Q2 190,000 Multi 3.4 AWULT 19.25m 5.75% Big Sam, Wingates Industrial Estate, Bolton Q2 275,000 Tesco Stores m 7.25% Brierly Road, Walton Summit Preston Q2 145,000 Multi 4.5 AWULT 7.75m 7.40% Martland Way, Wigan Q2 390,000 Sports Direct. com m 8.75% Arrowe Commercial Park, Upton Q ,000 Multi 2.6 AWULT 2.9m 8.50% Walton Summit Industrial Estate, Preston Q2 145,000 Thyssenkrupp Aerospace m 7.60% Deeside Industrial Park East, Deeside Q ,000 Multi 5.0 AWULT 34.00m 7.69% Estuary Business Park, Speke Q ,000 Johnson Controls (UK) m 6.45% 5-12 Wingates Industrial Estate, Bolton Q ,000 Multi 4.0 AWULT 3.41m 10.04% Haydock Industrial Estate, St Helens Q2 145,000 Palmer & Harvey Mclane 15 Circa 9.64m Circa 6.75% Southmoor Park Wythenshawe Q2 58,000 Multi 2.3 AWULT 1.74m 9.46% Penny Lane, Haydock Q1 115,000 Aimia Foods m 9.13%

6 OCCUPATIONAL TRANSACTIONS OF NOTE, 2014 OCCUPATIONAL TRANSACTIONS OF NOTE, 2014 ADDRESS TENANT DATE AREA (SQ FT) LEASE TERM ACHIEVED RENT/ PRICE ADDRESS TENANT DATE AREA (SQ FT) LEASE TERM ACHIEVED RENT/ PRICE Expressway 56, Deeside Industrial Estate MMP Q ,000 Undisclosed 3.10 psf Chesford Distribution Centre, Stapleton s (Tyre Services) Q , year lease 3.75 psf Maximus, Winsford Tiger Trailers Q , year lease 3.75 psf 2-4 Chesford Grange, Crest Medical Q , year lease 3.10 psf Charleywood Point, Knowsley Potter Logistics Q , year lease 3.25 The Bear, Widnes Express Gifts Q , year lease 2.75 psf Unit 1 South The Hut Group Q ,000 5 year lease 5.00 Dunnings Bridge Road, Bootle KTC Edibles Q ,000 Freehold Sale 9.70 psf Tame 115, Dukinfield Ritrama Q , year lease 3.70 M3 Heywood Distribution Park Footasylum Q , year lease 3.00 psf

7 CONTACT US 6800 Daresbury Park WA4 4GE T: INVESTMENT Simon Wood John Burrows M: M: AGENCY Tom Davis Howard George M: M: Jonathan Thorne Steve Johnson M: M: Copyright B8 Real Estate LLP This publication is the sole property of B8 Real Estate LLP and must not be copied, reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, either in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of B8 Real Estate LLP. The information contained within this publication has been obtained from sources generally regarded to be reliable. However, no representation is made, or warranty given, in respect of the accuracy of this information. We would like to be informed of any inaccuracies so that we may correct them. B8 Real Estate LLP does not accept any liability in negligence or otherwise for any loss or damage suffered by any party resulting from reliance on this publication.