Developments Real Estate & Construction market Morocco Presentation by MEYS Emerging Markets Research

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1 Developments Real Estate & Construction market Morocco Presentation by MEYS Emerging Markets Research

2 Profile Construction & Real Estate sector Morocco Construction & Public Works (excluding Real Estate) is 6.5% of GDP (2016) Total Value Added of Construction & Public Works (excluding Real Estate) is 58.2 billion dirhams (2016) Approximately companies (formal) 90% are SMEs (turnover < 75 million dirham) With a turnover of 7.1 billion dirhams (2016) conglomerate Addoha is the largest Moroccan real estate company in Morocco The largest Moroccan construction company is SGTM with a turnover of around 3.9 billion dirhams (2016)

3 Total market size Real Estate & Contruction sector is estimated by MEYS at 190 billion dirhams (17 billion euros) Sub-sector Market size (2016) Steel and Aluminium construction works Steel and Aluminium production Building materials (cement, concrete, bricks, ceramics, marble) Real estate developers and construction companies (incl. infrastructure): Market size formal Market size informal Total market size Private Public 8 billion dirhams 21 billion dirhams 25 billion dirhams 84 billion dirhams 17 billion dirhams 155 billion dirhams 35 billion dirhams 190 billion dirhams Source: HCP, Ministry of Finance, Maroc1000.net, annual reports, business associations

4 Total employment in Construction is around one million people (10% of total formal employment) Total (formal) employment in Construction* Note: (*) informal sector provides over 210,000 jobs Source: Ministry of Housing and Urban Planning

5 Growth rate construction industry lagging behind national economy 8,0% 6,0% 4,0% 2,0% 0,0% -2,0% -4,0% Growth rate y/y Construction Industry Growth rate y/y GDP Source: HCP; compiled by MEYS

6 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q3 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 Slow recovery growth rate cement consumption in 2017 Overcapacity in the market leads to downward pressure on cement prices 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% Annual growth rate local cement consumption (%) Source: APC, Ministry of Housing and Urban Planning; compiled by MEYS Cement market Morocco 20,4 20, ,1 16,2 16,1 15,9 15, ,5 14,6 14,9 14,1 14,2 14,2 13, Production capacity cement (Mt) Consumption cement (Mt) Source: APC, BMCE Capital

7 Size of the current Moroccan housing market 7.1 million housing units occupied, of which 65% in urban areas Urban % Rural % Total % Housing units occupied , , ,8 Housing units vacant , , ,3 Housing units seasonal occupied , , ,0 Total housing units , , Source: HCP Maroc

8 Largest number of housing units occupied in Morocco s four main cities Casablanca, Rabat, Marrakech, and Fes Number of current housing units occupied per region (% of total) Grand Casablanca-Settat 20,9% Rabat-Salé-Kénitra 13,9% Marrakech-Safi Fès-Meknès 12,8% 12,5% Tanger-Tétouan-Al Hoceïma 11,0% Souss-Massa 8,3% Béni Mellal-Khénifra Oriental 6,6% 7,3% Drâa-Tafilalet 3,9% Guelmim-Oued Noun Laâyoune-Sakia El Hamra Dakhla-Oued Ed Dahab 0,4% 1,3% 1,1% 0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0% 20,0% 25,0% Source: HCP Maroc

9 Total demand for housing is estimated at 1.6 million units 1.4 million in urban areas, 0.2 million units in rural areas Regional Main cities Source: Ministry of Housing and Urban Planning

10 Higher volumes in residential sales since 2010 More than 80% of residential property sales consist of appartments Sales residential property (number of transactions) Source: ANFCC, BAM

11 Market size commercial real estate in Morocco Grand Casablanca is dominating the national market of real estate property Total constructed floor space commercial real estate in 2016: 1.85 million m2 Since 2009 annual average constructed floor space real estate is around million m2, with the exception of 2014 Grand Casablanca largest real estate market with a share of 15% in national volume Total (expected) value of construction projects commercial real estate in 2016: 4.2 billion dirhams (approx. 380 million euros) Constructed floor space commercial property Morocco (1,000 m2) Source: HCP Maroc

12 Strong increase in hotel capacity in Morocco Objective Government is +200,000 hotel beds during period Number of hotel beds in Morocco Approx. 3,500 hotels * Note: Objective of Vision 2020 Source: Ministry of Tourism

13 Marrakech main destination for hotel construction 30% of hotel beds can be found in Marrakech Marrakech Agadir Casablanca Tanger Fes Oudja-Saidia Ouarzazate Tetouan Rabat Essaouira-Mogador Ifrane Meknes El Jadida-Mazagan Source: Ministry of Tourism Number of hotel beds by main Moroccan cities, 2017

14 Lower volumes constructed floor space since 2013 On average 80% is for construction of residential property Constructed floor space (1,000 m2) Source: HCP Maroc Residential Other

15 Lower volume new social housing projects Between Government objective to build 800,000 new social housing units, mainly appartments Total number started newly built houses Source: FNPI, Ministry of Housing and Urban Planning Social Market

16 Government investments in real estate increases since 2011 Social housing programs important benificiary public investment funds Government investments in real estate activities* (million dirham) Note: (*) include investments in public real estate companies and tax advantages for social housing programs Source: Ministry of Finance; compiled by MEYS

17 Two types of social housing programs initiated since 2008 as part of reducing the national housing deficit: - 250,000 dirham social housing program; objective to build 300,000 houses between ,000 dirham social housing program; primarily aimed at reducing the number of bidonvilles or city slums in Morocco; objective to build 130,000 houses between Main results 250,000 dirham program by the end of 2017: - 595,794 housing units received authorisation for construction - 221,660 housing units are still under construction - 366,462 housing units have been completed - 70% of the realised construction projects are in three regions Casablanca (45%), Tanger (13%), Rabat (12%) - 96% developed by private sector

18 Main results 140,000 dirham housing program by end 2017: - 44,239 housing units received authorisation for construction - 9,838 housing units are still under construction - 28,549 housing units have been completed - 91% of the realised housing projects are in the five regions Fes/Meknes (27%), Souss Massa (22%), Casablanca (17%), Marrakech (16%), Oriental (9%) - 60% developed by private sector

19 Total volume in real estate loans has increased with more than 30% since 2010 to almost 260 billion dirhams Real estate loans to households has highest share (75%) Volume real estate loans in Morocco* (million dirhams) Total Households Developers Note: (*) level in December Source: BAM

20 Strong increase FDI in Moroccan real estate since 2013 Average % of real estate in FDI %; % Direct foreign investments in Moroccan real estate (million dirham) Mojor investors Moroccan real estate market Source: Office des Changes, Ministry of Housing and Urban Planning

21 High volume money transfers Moroccan migrants 85% is invested in real estate (primarily housing) Total money transfers MRE (million dirhams) Source: Office des Changes

22 Increase turnover Real Estate & Construction companies Lower market prices reduces net results Turnover Construction & Real Estate market* (2010 = 100) Net results Construction & Real Estate market* (2010 = 100) Note: (*) turnover largest construction & real estate companies in Morocco Source: Annual reports companies; compiled by MEYS Note: (*) Net result largest construction & real estate companies in Morocco Source: Annual reports companies; compiled by MEYS

23 Major real estate projects Casablanca Casablanca Port (570 million euro): Shipyard Fishing port Marina Commercial Restaurants Residential Tanger Tanger Metropole (730 million euro): Marina Cruise terminal Commercial Leisure Hotels Residential Marrakech Redevelopment inner city (570 million euro): Infrastructure Touristic sites Rabat Salé Bouregreg Valley (820 million euro): Theatre Residential Museum Marina Leisure Hotels Commercial

24 Large social housing projects Tamansourt (near Marrakech): new units inhabitants Total costs: 39.5 billion dh Tamesna (near Rabat): new units inhabitants Total costs: 23 billion dh Sahel Lakhyayta (near Casablanca): units inhabitants Total costs: 25 billion dh Chrafat (near Tanger): units inhabitants Total costs: 24 billion dh

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