Housing the World: Leveraging Private Sector Resources for the Public Good

Transcription

1 Housing the World: Leveraging Private Sector Resources for the Public Good December Bangalore, India Simon Walley Housing Finance Program Coordinator

2 Content Challenge Obstacles Opportunity Solutions? 2

3 Title of Presentation 3

4 Trends in Global Slum Population 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Slum Population % of global slum population % of urban population China 181 million 25% 29% India 105 million 15% 29% Nigeria 48 million 7% 63% Brazil 45 million 6% 27% Pakistan 30 million 4% 47% % of Urban Population living in slum conditions Trend up to countries account for 57% of total global slum population Overall proportion of population living in slums is falling But as Urban population is rising, total slum population still on the increase in certain regions Source: UN data, WB own calculation 4

5 Proportion of Urban Population living in slum conditions 80% 70% Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East & North Africa Latin America & Caribbean South Asia East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia All regions expected to show fall in proportion of urban population living in slum conditions 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Sub-Saharan Africa shows slowest level of decline Latin America also goes from 2 nd lowest to 2 nd highest 10% 0% Source: UN data, Projections are WB own calculations based on simple linear trend 5

6 Global Slum Population by region Millions Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East & North Africa Latin America & Caribbean South Asia At global level slum population is on a downward trajectory both in absolute numbers and as a proportion of overall urban population Except in Africa where rapid population growth means that improvements in city conditions are outweighed by urbanization growth East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia 6

7 Low Penetration levels for Housing Finance Globally across both LICs and MICs Has a Loan to Purchase Home/Apartment (% adults) [0,5] (5,15] (15,25] (25,35] (35,60] No data Source: Findex Global Financial Inclusion Survey,

8 Housing Finance Penetration Levels HIGH INCOME ECONOMIES DEVELOPING ECONOMIES GENDER FEMALE MALE AGE GROUP WITHIN ECONOMY 20 0 INCOME 0 QUINTILE 20 POOREST Q2 Q3 Q4 RICHEST EDUCATION 0 LEVEL 0 PRIMARY SECONDARY TERTIARY Low Penetration levels across all developing economies, but especially among the young, and those on lower incomes even in developed economies RESIDENCE RURAL URBAN Note: Primary includes those with less than a primary education; tertiary includes those with more than a tertiary education. Source: Demirguc Kunt and Klapper

9 Current size of mortgage markets and urban growth projections by income group 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Mortgage Depth ( ) and Penetration (2011) Mortgage Depth High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Mortgage Penetration Low income Low income Lower middle income Upper middle income High income Urban Population Growth By Income Group ( ) 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% While mortgage depth averaged 40% in high income countries ( ), it averaged 5%-10% for middle income nations and less than 1% for low Income economies, In contrast, projected urban growth rates between 2015 and 2050 are highest for low and lower middle income countries. 9

10 Urban growth projections and housing finance development by region The mismatch in housing finance market development is also evident across regions, with North America, and East Asia and Pacific regions showing the highest mortgage depth and penetration, and South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa the lowest. Mortgage depth ( ) and Penetration (2011) South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa Europe & Central Asia East Asia & Pacific North America Mortgage Penetration Mortgage Depth 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Annual Urban Growth Rates By Region ( ) Though the fastest growing urban cities are located in South South Asia Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia & Pacific these regions currently have relatively underdeveloped mortgage markets. Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East & North Africa Latin America & Caribbean Europe & Central Asia North America 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% Housing Finance 2030 Roadmap 10

11 Mortgage Debt to GDP 135 Countries have mortgage debt levels lower than 5% of GDP equivalent. Of these a number of high/upper income countries such as Qatar, Gabon, Hungary, Chile 43 Countries >15% mortgage debt/gdp 17 Countries <15% but >5% mortgage debt/gdp 135 Countries >5% mortgage debt/gdp Source: World Bank mortgage Database 11

12 Content Challenge Obstacles Opportunity Solutions? 12

13 Obstacles to Meeting Housing Gap Demand for Housing Lack of long term funds Credit Risk Informality/low incomes High interest rates Foreclosure system Lack of affordable housing Financial literacy Supply of Housing Availability of Developer finance (debt and equity) Planning and building regulations Cost of infrastructure Access to Land Titling/Registration system Lack of Effective Demand Lack of Affordable Supply 13

14 Drivers of Housing Finance Variable Impact Inflation volatility - Age of Population + Development of Insurance sector + Urban Population + Overall wealth GDP per capita + Government Bond Market - Government Bank ownership - Private Capital Market + Creditor Rights + Property Rights + Source: Badev, A; Beck, T; Vado, L; Walley, S; Housing Finance Across Countries, World Bank Policy Research Paper, January 2014

15 Content Challenge Obstacles Opportunity Solutions? 15

16 Affordable Housing is a Global Economic Opportunity Value of affordable housing shortage, 2012, $ Billions High Shortage and market attractiveness Developed market, redevelopment opportunity Other emerging market opportunity Source: McKinsey Analysis 16

17 Potential Economic Stimulus from Housing Source: McKinsey Analysis 17

18 Kenya Example - Urban Income Distribution Potential Mortgage Market (8%) 1% 4% 15% Ksh 2,656,203 ($32,874) Ksh 1,800,463 ($22,283) 30% 50% Ksh 502,515 Ksh 343,964 Ksh 0 ($6,219) ($4,257)

19 Kenya Potential Opportunity No affordability in Rural areas income not high enough for mortgage market to develop In Urban areas just 8% of the population could afford a mortgage product. Represents around 1.4 million people or 350,000 households Potential mortgage market therefore around Ksh 1,128 billion or $13.7 billion

20 Content Challenge Obstacles Opportunity Solutions? 20

21 Reducing Affordability Gap Source:McKinsey Global Institute analysis 21

22 World Bank impacts the entire housing value chain example for sub-saharan africa WB support for EE reforms, housing & urban policy >8 SSA countries Land and Tenure High costs, long delays to transfer titles, register liens WB & IFC invest in infrastructure Water, sanitation power Govts. Often don t provide essential services - drinking water, sanitation WB & IFC invest in mortgages, MFIs, capital markets growth in >12 SSA countries Financing Banks target the wealthy, interest rates high: 16-19% in nominal terms IFC invests in cement, steel in >15 SSA countries Building Materials Steel & cement costs >20% higher in SSA vs. China, India, CIS, Turkey IFC invests in developers & builders Design and building skills/services Local developers lack skills, staff, capital to manage large scale projects Housing & Construction SSA residential construction costs >2x South Asia, China WB Urban work, IFC s ASHA standards for sustainable developments Community Development Schools, clinics, groceries, supplies, proximity to livelihoods, transportation 22

23 Housing Finance Solutions Development of solid primary market basis efficient property rights, credit risk management systems, consumer information/protection, regulation Strong products which are long term, affordable and limit risks for households and financial system Secondary markets to leverage impact by using capital markets Information systems data collection, research and analysis Developer finance equity & debt

24 Conclusion Take holistic approach across housing value chain to obtain maximum economic benefits Clear role for government in improving enabling environment rather than as property developer Create housing finance system to allow for long term investment into housing leverage capital markets Provide solutions across the income distribution make use of smart subsidies or partial guarantees to work in tandem with market based pricing Home-ownership not only option rental should play role as part of inclusive housing policy

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