The Daft.ie House Price Report

Transcription

1 The Daft.ie House Price Report An analysis of recent trends in the Irish residential sales market for Introduction by Ronan Lyons, Assistant Professor at Trinity College Dublin and author of the Daft Report

2 Latest figures show Ronan Lyons Assistant Professor at Trinity College Dublin and author of the Daft Report the importance of staying the course on lending rules The last twelve months have seen a remarkable turnaround in the Irish housing market. A little over a year ago, house prices in Dublin were rising at a rate of over 20% a year while elsewhere in the country, they were for all intents and purposes static rising at a rate of 2.1% a year. Indeed in counties such as Longford, Westmeath and Donegal, house prices only bottomed out in early and in Limerick, both city and county, they did not bottom out until the end of. This, then, was the market in mid-: Dublin prices rising unsustainably fast, while prices elsewhere were treading water. Fast forward to September and the difference is profound. Over the last 12 months, inflation in Dublin house prices has fallen from 24.5% to just 2.4%. Outside Dublin, inflation has jumped from 2.1% in mid- to over 13% now. At a time when urban house prices in Cork, Galway and Limerick are rising at a rate of almost 20% a year, they are now falling both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year in some of Dublin s most desirable postal districts. The graph on page 3 shows the annual change in average asking prices in all major urban areas in Ireland. With the exception of Dublin 17 and Dublin 10, two of Dublin s most affordable postal districts, there has been very moderate growth in prices across Dublin. And in key areas, such as Dublin 6, Dublin 14 and Dublin 18, house prices are now falling in year-on-year terms. What explains such a change in market trends in such a short space of time? On the face of it, sustained economic growth would be expected to have upward pressure on house prices countrywide, as it signals both rising incomes and improved expectations about the future. The fact that Ireland s economic fortunes have improved so dramatically and rapidly is likely to be at the heart of recent increases in prices in many parts of the country, including the cities outside of Dublin. In Dublin, however, house prices had already risen substantially in the two years to and were high relative to incomes when the new Central Bank rules were suggested this time last year. Those rules have effectively tied house prices to incomes, preventing The Daft.ie House Price Report 2

3 the possibility of another credit-fueled bubble in the capital. This shows the importance of those Central Bank rules and thus why it is so worrying that early election kite-flying has included suggestions to water down the very rules that have maintained housing affordability in the capital. The reason that there have been these suggestions has been down not to worsening affordability in Dublin, but to a lack of availability. The capital is growing by perhaps 10,000 households a year, responding to a fire: do you call the fire brigade? Or do you throw more fuel on in the hope that a bigger fire might catch the fire brigade s attention? To increase the supply of homes in and around the capital and Ireland s other cities, we need to understand why, when demand exceeds supply, the value of a home does not exceed the cost. Again, as stated before in this commentary, this is likely to be a consequence of cost-blind regulations none of the significant range of new regulations imposed Market Survey Each quarter, Daft.ie surveys over 1,000 property market participants, asking them about their sense of the market as a whole, and their own intentions. Below are some of the headline results. meaning that 100,000 new homes are needed in Dublin over the course of the s. Halfway through the decade, fewer than 10,000 of those have been built. on building in the last ten years have ever been analysed in terms of how they affect the breakeven rent. Minimum standards are not paid for by the developers, they are paid for by the occupants, Planned house priceto-income ratio 4.8 Expected price change this year 15% % stating that house prices currently represent good value As stated in this commentary a year ago, you do not tackle a shortage of supply in housing by increasing the supply of credit and thus create even more demand. The analogy used last year was of and thus they need to reflect real incomes in the economy currently % 5% 0% -5% Annual change in house prices, % -15% 25% National Dublin Ex-Dublin 20% National Dublin Ex-Dublin National Dublin Ex-Dublin 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% DUBLIN 1 DUBLIN 2 DUBLIN 3 DUBLIN 4 DUBLIN 5 DUBLIN 6 DUBLIN 6w DUBLIN 7 DUBLIN 8 DUBLIN 9 DUBLIN 10 DUBLIN 11 DUBLIN 12 DUBLIN 13 DUBLIN 14 DUBLIN 15 DUBLIN 16 DUBLIN 17 DUBLIN 18 DUBLIN 20 DUBLIN 22 DUBLIN 24 NORTH DUBLIN SOUTH DUBLIN WEST DUBLIN CORK CITY GALWAY CITY LIMERICK CITY WATERFORD CITY Ratio of house prices to incomes fell in third quarter Following strong growth during and, the planned ratio of house prices to incomes fell back somewhat in the third quarter of the year, for example from 4.7 to 4.5 in Dublin. House price expectations outside Dublin now above those for capital For the first time since the survey began in, expected house price inflation outside Dublin (4%) exceeds that for the capital (3%). Peceived value remains poor Compared to, few market prospective buyers believe there is value in the market - although there is some evidence this may have turned in Dublin in the last year (21% vs. 15%). 3 The Daft.ie House Price Report The Daft.ie House Price Report 4

4 Nationwide Average asking prices and Y-on-Y change DL 127, % Dublin Average asking prices and Y-on-Y change North County 260, % Limerick City 143, % Galway City 222, % KY 160, % MO 125, % G 152, % CE 147, % SO 114, % C 174, % L 149, % RN 110, % LM 100, % LD 99, % OY 141, % T 147, % W 179, % CN 123, % WH 144, % LS 136, % KK 170, % MN 135, % MH 207, % KE 213, % CW 143, % LH 164, % WX 161, % Waterford City 126, % WW 277, % West County 264, % South County 520, % North City 276, % City Centre 247, % South City 337, % Prices up 18% from their lowest point Nationally, the average asking price reached its lowest point in the third quarter of and has risen 23.1% - 38,000 - since then. In Dublin, however, the bottom was reached in the second quarter of and prices have risen by an average of 41% - or 90,000 - since that time. The last part of the country to see prices level off was Limerick - in both Limerick city and county, prices only reached their lowest point in the final Cork City 225, % quarter of and have risen by roughly 10% (12% in the city) in the last six months. 5 The Daft.ie House Price Report The Daft.ie House Price Report 6

5 Daft.ie Asking Price Index 1.6% Quarter-on-quarter change in average asking prices Annual inflation eases again between June and September Having peaked at over 15% in early, annual inflation in list prices has eased back to 8.4% in the six months since then. Dublin house prices now largely stable In the last 12 months, inflation in Dublin list prices has collapsed from 24.5% to just 2.4%. Stock of properties on the market now stable Having fallen from a peak of over 60,000 in 2009, there are now roughly 30,000 properties for sale in the country, similar to the figure this time last year. Time to sell stable Three in five properties find a buyer within four months, the same fraction now as a year ago. Asking Prices, Residential Sales ( average = 100) Stock of properties on Daft.ie (start of month) and flow of properties, January February March April May June July August September October November Stock (lhs) Inflow (rhs) Outflow (rhs) December average=100 The Daft.ie Asking Price Index is based on asking prices for properties posted for sale on Daft.ie. An index based on asking price, as opposed to closing price, is a measure of sellers expectations. Figures are calculated from econometric regressions, which calculate changes in price that are independent of changes in observable measures of quality, such as location, or bedroom number. 7 The Daft.ie House Price Report The Daft.ie House Price Report 8

6 Daft.ie Transaction Price Index 1.0% Quarter-on-quarter change in average transaction prices Annual inflation in Dublin has stopped For the 18 months to March, annual inflation in Dublin house prices averaged nearly 24% - now inflation in the capital is just 2.6%. Inflation outside Dublin continues to grow Having been falling up to mid-, house prices outside the capital are now growing at a year-on-year rate of 16%. Strong growth in transaction volumes continues There were one quarter more transactions in the second quarter of than in the same period in, with half that growth coming from Dublin alone. Bid-ask spread greater outside Dublin for the first time The typical property in Dublin sold for 0.8% more than its ask in the third quarter of, whereas outside the capital it sold for 1.4% more. Number of transactions recorded on the Price Register, - January February March April May June July August September Number of transactions recorded on the price register, - (start of month) and flow of properties, October November * December average=100 The Daft.ie Price Register Index is based on prices for residential properties recorded on propertypriceregister.ie, for which matches were found in the daft.ie archives. Because these are entered with a lag by solicitors, figures for previous quarters are subject to revision. Figures are calculated from econometric regressions, which calculate changes in price that are independent of changes in observable measures of quality, such as location, type, or size. 9 The Daft.ie House Price Report The Daft.ie House Price Report 10

7 Asking prices nationwide Average asking prices across Ireland ( 000s), and annual change (%), 1 bed apartment 2 bed terraced 3 bed semi-d 4 bed bungalow 5 bed detached 1 bed apartment 2 bed terraced 3 bed semi-d 4 bed bungalow 5 bed detached DUBLIN Dublin % % % % % Dublin % % % % % Dublin % % % % % LEINSTER Meath % % % % % Kildare % % % % % Wicklow % % % % % Dublin % % % % 1, % Louth % % % % % Dublin % % % % % Longford % % % % % Dublin % % % % 1, % Offaly % % % % % Dublin 6W % % % % % Westmeath % % % % % Dublin % % % % % Laois % % % % % Dublin % % % % % Carlow % % % % % Dublin % % % % % Kilkenny % % % % % Dublin % % % % % Wexford % % % % % Dublin % % % % % Dublin % % % % % Dublin % % % % % MUNSTER Waterford Co % % % % % Kerry % % % % % Cork Co % % % % % Dublin % % % % % Clare % % % % % Dublin % % % % % Limerick Co % % % % % Dublin % % % % % Tipperary % % % % % Dublin % % % % % Dublin % % % % % Dublin % % % % % Dublin % % % % % CONNACHT Galway County % % % % % Mayo % % % % % Roscommon % % % % % Sligo % % % % % Dublin % % % % % Leitrim % % % % % North Co Dublin % % % % % South Co Dublin % % % % % West Dublin % % % % % ULSTER Donegal % % % % % Cavan % % % % % Monaghan % % % % % OTHER CITIES Cork City % % % % % Galway City % % % % % Limerick City % % % % % Waterford City % % % % % 11 The Daft.ie House Price Report The Daft.ie House Price Report 12

8 Dublin Between June and September, average asking prices fell in all parts of Dublin, typically by about 1%. North County Average price: 260,512 Qtr-on-qtr change: -1.5% Year-on-year change: 4.0% Change from trough: 27.8% West County Average price: 264,957 Qtr-on-qtr change: -1.2% Year-on-year change: 3.3% Change from trough: 42.6% South County Average price: 520,451 Qtr-on-qtr change: -1.1% Year-on-year change: 1.6% Change from trough: 50.4% North City Average price: 276,366 Qtr-on-qtr change: -1.3% Year-on-year change: 3.3% Change from trough: 40.2% City Centre Average price: 247,803 Qtr-on-qtr change: -0.6% Year-on-year change: 5.4% Change from trough: 47.8% South City Average price: 337,411 Qtr-on-qtr change: -1.7% Year-on-year change: 0.5% Change from trough: 38.7% Year-on-year falls Greater stock on the market Swift sales dwindling Transaction prices close to ask In three postcodes - Dublin 6, 14 and 18 - asking A greater number of properties are available to buy in the A declining fraction of properties sell within four The average transaction price in Dublin is just 0.8% prices now are lower than a year previously, while in Dublin market now, compared to a year ago - the average months in the capital - from nearly three quarters a above its original list price, compared to 7% above a many others, particularly on the southside, they are for the first 9 months of has been 4,100 at any one year ago to two thirds now. year ago. no more than 2% higher. time, compared to 2,800 for the same period in. How fast are properties in Dublin selling? How have house prices changed? Within 2 months 800, , ,000 Within 4 months 500, , ,000 Within 6 months 200, ,000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% One year ago Previous quarter Current quarter Dublin City Centre North Dublin City South Dublin City North County Dublin South County Dublin West County Dublin Proportion of properties marked as sale agreed and withdrawn, -. Average house price by area, The Daft.ie House Price Report The Daft.ie House Price Report 14

9 Longford Average price: 99,775 Qtr-on-qtr change: 2.8% Year-on-year change: 8.7% Change from trough: 18.4% Louth Average price: 164,263 Qtr-on-qtr change: 2.9% Year-on-year change: 12.1% Change from trough: 28.8% Leinster Westmeath Average price: 144,865 Qtr-on-qtr change: 3.3% Year-on-year change: 11.1% Change from trough: 22.7% Offaly Average price: 141,109 Qtr-on-qtr change: -0.2% Year-on-year change: 7.0% Change from trough: 16.8% Meath Average price: 207,430 Qtr-on-qtr change: 3.5% Year-on-year change: 17.7% Change from trough: 38.1% Kildare Average price: 213,445 Qtr-on-qtr change: 2.8% Year-on-year change: 13.6% Change from trough: 36.1% Almost all parts of Leinster, outside Dublin, saw significant increases in average prices of 2% - 4% between June and September. Laois Average price: 136,603 Qtr-on-qtr change: 3.7% Year-on-year change: 13.6% Change from trough: 31.7% Kilkenny Average price: 170,535 Qtr-on-qtr change: 3.1% Year-on-year change: 11.4% Change from trough: 28.9% Carlow Average price: 143,967 Qtr-on-qtr change: 1.6% Year-on-year change: 6.9% From trough: 23.0% Wicklow Average price: 277,505 Qtr-on-qtr change: 2.1% Year-on-year change: 11.0% Change from trough: 36.5% Wexford Average price: 161,961 Qtr-on-qtr change: 4.3% Year-on-year change: 12.5% Change from trough: 29.6% Commuter Counties cooling Supply stabilising Speed of sales stable Transaction prices 1% above ask While inflation in Dublin s four commuter counties There were 6,700 properties for sale in Leinster The fraction of Leinster properties finding a buyer The average transaction price in Leinster is 1% above remains high (13.8% year-on-year), it has cooled (outside Dublin) on October 1st, down slightly within four months is roughly stable, at 58% now its original list price, down slightly from 1.3% above significantly since the start of year when it compared to the same date a year ago (7,200). compared to 56% a year ago. a year ago. peaked at 23.7%. How fast are properties in Leinster selling? How have house prices changed? Within 2 months 450, , ,000 Within 4 months 300, ,000 Within 6 months 200, , ,000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% One year ago Previous quarter Current quarter Dublin Commuter Counties West Leinster South-East Leinster Proportion of properties marked as sale agreed and withdrawn, -. Average house price by area, The Daft.ie House Price Report The Daft.ie House Price Report 16

10 Clare Tipperary Munster Average price: 147,314 Qtr-on-qtr change: 6.4% Year-on-year change: 18.9% Change from trough: 23.2% Limerick County Average price: 149,613 Qtr-on-qtr change: 4.2% Year-on-year change: 10.0% Change from trough: 13.7% Average price: 147,463 Qtr-on-qtr change: 3.8% Year-on-year change: 9.6% Change from trough: 15.9% Limerick City Average price: 143,929 Qtr-on-qtr change: 7.7% Year-on-year change: 17.3% Change from trough: 21.2% Strong gains in asking prices across Munster, especially in its cities, between June and September. Kerry Average price: 160,729 Qtr-on-qtr change: 3.4% Year-on-year change: 7.3% Change from trough: 14.4% Cork County Average price: 174,951 Qtr-on-qtr change: 5.6% Year-on-year change: 15.9% Change from trough: 22.1% Cork City Average price: 225,361 Qtr-on-qtr change: 6.8% Year-on-year change: 19.1% Change from trough: 37.2% Waterford County Average price: 179,590 Qtr-on-qtr change: 4.3% Year-on-year change: 15.8% Change from trough: 24.9% Waterford City Average price: 126,688 Qtr-on-qtr change: 7.2% Year-on-year change: 12.0% Change from trough: 20.9% Urban price growth Supply falling Sale speed stable Transaction prices now above ask There has been a significant increase in average The stock of properties available to buy in Munster Just under half of all properties in Munster find a The average transaction price in Munster is now 0.9% asking prices in Cork, Limerick and Waterford cities continues to fall, with 8,500 on the market in October buyer within four months, a similar fraction now as above the original list price, compared to 4.4% below since June, of 7-8%. 1st, compared to 10,400 a year ago. three and twelve months ago. a year ago. How fast are properties in Munster selling? How have house prices changed? Within 2 months 400, ,000 Within 4 months 300, , ,000 Within 6 months 150, ,000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% One year ago Previous quarter Current quarter Cork City Limerick City Waterford City Rest-of-Munster Proportion of properties marked as sale agreed and withdrawn, -. Average house price by area, The Daft.ie House Price Report The Daft.ie House Price Report 18

11 Donegal Leitrim Connacht/Ulster Average price: 127,154 Qtr-on-qtr change: 2.5% Year-on-year change: 9.9% Change from trough: 11.9% Average price: 100,480 Qtr-on-qtr change: 1.9% Year-on-year change: 5.2% Change from trough: 17.0% Most of Connacht and Ulster witnessed modest growth of 2-3% in prices between June and September. Sligo Average price: 114,302 Qtr-on-qtr change: 1.2% Year-on-year change: 5.2% Change from trough: 8.8% Mayo Average price: 125,181 Qtr-on-qtr change: 2.6% Year-on-year change: 9.4% Change from trough: 12.5% Galway City Average price: 222,616 Qtr-on-qtr change: 7.2% Year-on-year change: 18.1% Change from trough: 38.6% Galway County Average price: 152,209 Qtr-on-qtr change: 2.7% Year-on-year change: 13.2% Change from trough: 20.3% Monaghan Average price: 135,493 Qtr-on-qtr change: 2.1% Year-on-year change: 10.9% Change from trough: 18.7% Cavan Average price: 123,237 Qtr-on-qtr change: 4.1% Year-on-year change: 17.3% Change from trough: 20.0% Roscommon Average price: 110,374 Qtr-on-qtr change: 3.1% Year-on-year change: 11.8% Change from trough: 20.4% Galway jump in prices Supply falling Half sell within four months Transaction prices remain below ask As was the case in the Munster cities, there was a The stock of properties available to buy in Connacht There has been an increase in the fraction of Connacht- The average transaction price in Connacht-Ulster is strong increase - of over 7% - in Galway city asking & Ulster continues to fall, with 7,600 on the market in Ulster properties selling within four months, rising from now 0.8% below the original list price, compared to prices in the third quarter of the year. October 1st, compared to 9,200 a year ago. 40% a year ago to nearly 50% now. 5.1% below a year ago. How fast are properties in Connacht/Ulster selling? How have house prices changed? Within 2 months 400, ,000 Within 4 months 300, , ,000 Within 6 months 150, ,000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% One year ago Previous quarter Current quarter Galway County Connacht Ulster Proportion of properties marked as sale agreed and withdrawn, -. Average house price by area, The Daft.ie House Price Report The Daft.ie House Price Report 20

12 Over the last 10 years, Daft.ie has collected a vast amount of data on the Irish property market. In alone, over 140,000 properties for sale were advertised on the site. Methodology and Sample Size The statistics are based on properties advertised on Daft.ie for a given period. The regressions used are hedonic price regressions, accounting for all available and measurable attributes of properties, with a Cooks Distance filter for outliers. The average monthly sample size for lettings properties is over 10,000. Indices are based on standard methods, holding the mix of characteristics constant, with the annual average of used as the base. About the Report The goal of the Daft Report is to use this information to help all actors in the property market make informed decisions about buying and selling. In addition, because it is freely available, the Daft Report can help inform the media, the general public and policymakers about the latest developments in the property market. This is the Daft.ie House Price Report, the partner to the Daft.ie Rental Report, which will be issued next month. Together, they give house-hunters and investors more information to help them make their decisions. These twin reports mean that Daft is the only objective monitor of trends in both rental and sales markets on a quarterly basis, making the report an essential barometer for anyone with an interest in the Irish property market. The Daft Report was first launched in It has already become the definitive barometer of the Irish rental market and is being used by the Central Bank, mortgage institutions, financial analysts and the general public alike. The Daft.ie House Price report is Ireland s longest-running house price report, combining information from the Daft. ie archives with data from Ireland s Residential Property Price Register. About Daft.ie Daft.ie is Ireland s largest property website with over 1.9 million unique users of the site generating over 180 million page views each month. Disclaimer The Daft.ie Report is prepared from information that we believe is collated with care, but we do not make any statement as to its accuracy or completeness. We reserve the right to vary our methodology and to edit or discontinue the indices, snapshots or analysis at any time for regulatory or other reasons. Persons seeking to place reliance on any information contained in this report for their own or third party commercial purposes do so at their own risk. Credits Economic Analysis: Ronan Lyons Marketing and Communications: Martin Clancy Design & Production: Derek Jones & Dara Gannon Coming next: The Daft.ie Rental Report, in November. The Daft.ie Rental Report will be published in November and will include a review of the performance of Ireland s rental market in, plus all the usual indices, snapshots, trends and rental yield analysis, providing analysts, tenants, landlords, students and the public with the most up-to-date information on Ireland s rental market. All data is Copyright Daft Media Limited. The information contained in this report may only be reproduced if the source is clearly credited. Please contact Daft.ie on for further information. 21 The Daft.ie House Price Report