The Daft.ie House Price Report

Transcription

1 The Daft.ie House Price Report An analysis of recent trends in the Irish residential sales market for 2018 Introduction by Ronan Lyons, Assistant Professor at Trinity College Dublin and author of the Daft Report.

2 Supply starts to trickle on to the market On the face of it, little appears to have changed in many of the figures in this Daft.ie House Price Report. Sale prices whether measured by listed prices or using the Property Price Register are up compared to three or twelve months ago. And that s true for pretty much everywhere in the country Donegal once again the exception, as Brexit continues to kill confidence in much of the market there. Yet another quarter of rising prices is to be expected in a market characterised by strong demand but very weak supply of new homes. Scratch a little bit beneath the surface and there are hints that the picture is slowly changing. Compared to a year ago, prices are just 5.6% higher. Granted, this is well ahead of inflation, which is give or take zero. But 5.6% is the lowest rate of inflation we ve seen nationally in over four years, since the first quarter of. And that was when inflation was on the way up, not the way down. The quarter before this, late, annual inflation was 0.3% and three months later it was 9.8%. The last time we saw a similar set of circumstances inflation close to 5% and falling was actually over a decade ago, in the middle of Ronan Lyons, Assistant Professor in Economics, TCD We know what happened next then. By the end of 2007, prices were falling and fell dramatically over the coming five years. This was due to a credit bubble collapsing, with both real and financial economic shocks hitting the housing market including higher unemployment and higher deposits required by banks. This time around, almost no-one expects anything similar to the 55% fall in prices we saw then. This is because Central Bank rules have dramatically reduced the potential impact of the most volatile parts of the house price equation. These are the so-called asset factors : expected capital gains and loose lending standards. So what might be causing this slow-down in inflation? And can we expect it to continue? With asset factors no longer able to drive house prices changes, this means that the forces pushing prices up or down become more ordinary: supply and demand. And the picture that is emerging in the sales segment at least; no such trend has yet emerged in the rental segment is that supply is slowly but surely coming on stream. The total stock available for sale in Dublin in June was just shy of 4,800. Together with the same time of year in 2015, this is the highest availability has been since prices bottomed out. The Daft.ie House Price Report

3 Market Survey Outside Dublin, the shoots are even greener. The total number of homes available to buy on the market, excluding Dublin, reached a low of 16,800 in March this year down from a high of almost 57,000 in mid There has been a jump in availability in the last three months, 16,800 to 18,800. But it is too early to tell if that is just seasonal or the start of a trend. For Dublin, though, the increase in availability matches the increase in construction activity. Newly available and accurate housing completion figures show that 15,200 homes were finished in the 12 months to March. This is more than three times the number of homes completed during. inevitably to a huge need for urban apartments, not houses. So, the challenge for the country is that almost all the net new housing need over coming decades will be in the form of urban apartments. But the vast majority of what is being built is not apartments. There is nothing wrong with scheme houses as an interim solution, while the policy system figures out how to fix apartment-building as long as policymakers know that this is what is happening. Each quarter, Daft.ie surveys over 1,000 property market participants, asking them about their sense of the market as a whole, and their own intentions. Below are some of the headline results. Expected price change over next 12 months 20% 15% 10% 5% Is housing good value currently? 80% 70% 60% 50% Planned house price-to-income ratio While this is still well below the 40,000 or so new homes the country needs, that total includes all types of homes including social and rental. The private sales market is inching closer to producing the number of new homes it needs each year, though, and this is likely to be seen in more 0% Q3 Q % -10% -15% -20% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Q3 Q Q3 Q moderate price increases in the coming years. National Dublin Ex-Dublin National Dublin Ex-Dublin National Dublin Ex-Dublin While one-offs still make up almost one third of new homes, the majority of new homes built currently are in housing estates. 56% of new homes now fall into this category with just 15% of new homes Expected house price inflation continues to moderate Respondents seeing value in the market at new low Price-to-income ratio tops 5 in Dublin coming in apartments. There are three big picture trends that are expected to define housing demand in Ireland over the course of the 21st century: growth in the population, especially over the age of 50, urbanization and falling household size. All these three point The expected change in house prices over the coming 12 months currently stands at 5.3% nationally, down from 5.7% a year ago. In Dublin, expected inflation over the coming 12 months is now 6.7%, down from a peak of 8.4% a year ago. The fraction of respondents believing that prices now represent good value fell to just 24% nationwide in mid-2018, its lowest on record. In Dublin, just one in six respondents sees value in the market currently - the eighth quarter in a row where 15% or fewer see value in the capital. The planned housing price-toincome ratio was 4.6 among survey respondents in the second quarter of 2018, the second highest reading since the series started in In Dublin, the ratio is even higher, with the typical respondent planning to buy a house worth over five times income for the first time this decade. 3 The Daft.ie House Price Report 2018 The Daft.ie House Price Report

4 Nationwide Average asking prices and Y-on-Y change DL 145, % Dublin Average asking prices and Y-on-Y change North County 314, % Limerick City 189, % Galway City 285, % KY 186, % MO 154, % G 201, % CE 176, % SO 141, % C 215, % L 178, % RN 140, % LM 131, % LD 134, % OY 184, % T 168, % W 210, % CN 157, % WH 197, % LS 172, % KK 220, % MN 175, % MH 259, % KE 263, % CW 184, % LH 216, % WX 207, % Waterford City 172, % WW 334, % West County 307, % South County 599, % North City 341, % City Centre 335, % South City 411, % Prices up 54% from their lowest point Nationally, the average asking price reached its lowest point in the third quarter of and has risen 54.4% - or almost 89,000 - since then. In Dublin, prices reached their lowest point in the second quarter of 2012 and have risen by an average of 70% - or nearly 155,000 - since that time. The increase in prices has been smallest in Donegal, where price bottomed out in early. They rose by 22% between then and the Brexit referendum in mid- but have risen by just Cork City 5% in the following two years and are lower now than a year 273, % ago, the only part of the country where this is true. 5 The Daft.ie House Price Report 2018 The Daft.ie House Price Report

5 Daft.ie List Price Index 254K Average List Price Nationwide Inflation eases to 5.6% The annual rate of increase in list prices, nationally, was 5.6% in the second quarter of 2018, its lowest level since early. Prices up year-on-year everywhere but Donegal For the third quarter in a row, 53 of the 54 markets analysed saw prices higher than a year ago - with the exception once again being Donegal. Stock available on to the market rises There were just over 23,500 properties available for sale nationwide in May, 5% higher than a year previously - the first annual rise in availability since mid Two thirds sell in 4 months 65% of properties listed currently find a buyer within four months, in line with the figure from a year ago (66%). Asking Prices, Residential Sales (2012 average = 100) Stock of properties on Daft.ie (start of month) and flow of properties, January February March April May June July August September October Stock (lhs) Inflow (rhs) Outflow (rhs) November December The Daft.ie Asking Price Index is based on asking prices for properties posted for sale on Daft.ie. An index based on asking price, as opposed to closing price, is a measure of sellers expectations. Figures are calculated from econometric regressions, which calculate changes in price that are independent of changes in observable measures of quality, such as location, or bedroom number. 7 The Daft.ie House Price Report 2018 The Daft.ie House Price Report

6 Daft.ie Transaction Price Index 2.7% Quarter-on-quarter change in average transaction prices Transaction Prices, Residential Sales (2012 average = 100) Transaction prices rise 9.5% in year to June The annual rate of inflation in transaction prices nationwide was 9.5%, based on transaction registered by late June, an uptick on the 7.7% recorded in March. Dublin inflation remains below rate elsewhere Prices in Dublin rose by 6.7% in the year to June 2018, compared to an average of 11.5% elsewhere in the country. Almost 11,500 transactions in first quarter of 2018 The first three months of 2018 saw almost 11,500 transactions, 4% above the same threemonth period in and the highest for the first three months of the year since the start of the Register (2010). Number of transactions recorded on the Price Register, % gap between list and final price in the cities Compared to the initial list price, final transaction prices are almost 5% higher on average in Dublin and other cities - and more than this in Connacht-Ulster. 18, January February March April May June July August September October November December ,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Q Q Q Q3 Q The Daft.ie Price Register Index is based on prices for residential properties recorded on propertypriceregister.ie, for which matches were found in the daft.ie archives. Because these are entered with a lag by solicitors, figures for previous quarters are subject to revision. Figures are calculated from econometric regressions, which calculate changes in price that are independent of changes in observable measures of quality, such as location, type, or size. Q Q3 Q The Daft.ie House Price Report 2018 *Latest Quarter subject to significant revision The Daft.ie House Price Report

7 Daft.ie Snapshot of Asking Prices Nationwide Average asking prices across Ireland ( 000s), and annual change (%), bed apartment 2 bed terraced 3 bed semi-d 4 bed bungalow 5 bed detached 1 bed apartment 2 bed terraced 3 bed semi-d 4 bed bungalow 5 bed detached DUBLIN Dublin % % % % % Dublin % % % % % Dublin % % % % % LEINSTER Meath % % % % % Kildare % % % % % Wicklow % % % % % Dublin % % % 1, % 1, % Louth % % % % % Dublin % % % % % Longford % % % % % Dublin % % % 1, % 1, % Offaly % % % % % Dublin 6W % % % % % Westmeath % % % % % Dublin % % % % % Laois % % % % % Dublin % % % % % Carlow % % % % % Dublin % % % % % Kilkenny % % % % % Dublin % % % % % Wexford % % % % % Dublin % % % % % Dublin % % % % % Dublin % % % % % MUNSTER Waterford Co % % % % % Kerry % % % % % Cork Co % % % % % Dublin % % % % % Clare % % % % % Dublin % % % % % Limerick Co % % % % % Dublin % % % % % Tipperary % % % % % Dublin % % % % % Dublin % % % % % Dublin % % % % % Dublin % % % % % CONNACHT Galway Co % % % % % Mayo % % % % % Roscommon % % % % % Sligo % % % % % Dublin % % % % % Leitrim % % % % % North Co Dublin % % % % % South Co Dublin % % % % 1, % West Dublin % % % % % ULSTER Donegal % % % % % Cavan % % % % % Monaghan % % % % % OTHER CITIES Cork City % % % % % Galway City % % % % % Limerick City % % % % % Waterford City % % % % % 11 The Daft.ie House Price Report 2018 The Daft.ie House Price Report

8 Dublin Inflation in the capital eases back North County Average price: 314,350 Qtr-on-qtr change: 0.9% Year-on-year change: 3.9% Change from trough: 54.2% West County Average price: 307,228 Qtr-on-qtr change: 0.2% Year-on-year change: 3.4% Change from trough: 65.3% South County Average price: 599,194 Qtr-on-qtr change: 2.1% Year-on-year change: 6.3% Change from trough: 73.1% North City Average price: 341,435 Qtr-on-qtr change: 2.0% Year-on-year change: 5.5% Change from trough: 73.2% City Centre Average price: 335,091 Qtr-on-qtr change: 2.9% Year-on-year change: 11.8% Change from trough: 99.8% South City Average price: 411,959 Qtr-on-qtr change: 1.8% Year-on-year change: 6.4% Change from trough: 69.3% 6.2% rise on average Stock for sale up Sales take longer 5% premium in list prices Prices continue to rise across the capital, although the There were almost 4,800 properties for sale in Dublin in The fraction of properties finding a buyer within 2 Across the city, the typical property sells for a price that increase of 6.2% in the year to June is the smallest since June, the highest total since mid months is down (37% vs 50% a year ago), the fraction is almost 5% above its initial list price. late. selling within 4 months remains high (72%). How fast are properties in Dublin selling? How have house prices changed? Within 2 months 750, , , ,000 Within 4 months 550, , , ,000 Within 6 months 350, , ,000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% One year ago Previous quarter Current quarter 200, , Proportion of properties marked as sale agreed and withdrawn, Dublin City Centre North Dublin City South Dublin City North County Dublin South County Dublin West County Dublin 13 The Daft.ie House Price Report 2018 Average house price by area, The Daft.ie House Price Report

9 Longford Louth Average Price: 134,257 Qtr-on-qtr change: 3.7% Year-on-year change: 4.2% Change from trough: 59.3% Average Price: 216,905 Qtr-on-qtr change: 3.3% Year-on-year change: 3.2% Change from trough: 70.1% Westmeath Meath Average Price: 197,154 Qtr-on-qtr change: 4.6% Year-on-year change: 7.1% Change from trough: 67.0% Average Price: 259,696 Qtr-on-qtr change: 3.4% Year-on-year change: 3.9% Change from trough: 73.0% Offaly Kildare Leinster Average Price: 184,172 Qtr-on-qtr change: 4.3% Year-on-year change: 8.0% Change from trough: 52.5% Average Price: 263,729 Qtr-on-qtr change: 2.9% Year-on-year change: 4.0% Change from trough: 68.1% Laois Wicklow Return to rising prices Average Price: 172,456 Qtr-on-qtr change: 4.2% Year-on-year change: 5.0% Change from trough: 66.3% Average Price: 334,669 Qtr-on-qtr change: 3.1% Year-on-year change: 6.3% Change from trough: 64.6% Kilkenny Carlow Wexford Average Price: 220,645 Qtr-on-qtr change: 3.2% Year-on-year change: 5.0% Change from trough: 66.7% Average Price: 184,631 Qtr-on-qtr change: 5.2% Year-on-year change: 4.6% From trough: 57.8% Average Price: 207,762 Qtr-on-qtr change: 3.7% Year-on-year change: 4.8% Change from trough: 65.7% Across-the-board rises Stock records first rise Sale times speed slightly List and sale prices close For the second quarter in a row, prices rose in all 11 There were over 5,500 properties for sale in Leinster 63% percent of Leinster properties find a buyer Across the province, sale prices were on average counties in Leinster compared to the previous three- in March, a 1% increase on the same date in. within four months - up from 61% three months ago. 1.4% above the initial listed price - similar to the month period. This is the first time stock for sale has increased year- differential three months ago. on-year since May How fast are properties in Leinster selling? How have house prices changed? Within 2 months 400,000 Within 4 months 350, , ,000 Within 6 months 200, ,000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100,000 One year ago Previous quarter Current quarter Proportion of properties marked as sale agreed and withdrawn, , Dublin Commuter Counties West Leinster South-East Leinster The Daft.ie House Price Report 2018 Average house price by area, The Daft.ie House Price Report

10 Clare Tipperary Average Price: 176,561 Qtr-on-qtr change: 3.3% Year-on-year change: 6.7% Change from trough: 47.6% Average Price: 168,805 Qtr-on-qtr change: 1.9% Year-on-year change: 3.6% Change from trough: 32.7% Limerick County Limerick City Munster Average Price: 178,953 Qtr-on-qtr change: 3.3% Year-on-year change: 4.7% Change from trough: 36.0% Kerry Average Price: 189,416 Qtr-on-qtr change: 4.8% Year-on-year change: 6.9% Change from trough: 59.5% Waterford County Prices rise across the province Average Price: 186,716 Qtr-on-qtr change: 0.5% Year-on-year change: 3.9% Change from trough: 33.0% Cork County Cork City Average Price: 210,955 Qtr-on-qtr change: 0.1% Year-on-year change: 3.0% Change from trough: 46.7% Waterford City Average Price: 215,118 Qtr-on-qtr change: 0.9% Year-on-year change: 4.1% Change from trough: 50.2% Average Price: 273,894 Qtr-on-qtr change: 4.7% Year-on-year change: 6.9% Change from trough: 66.8% Average Price: 172,880 Qtr-on-qtr change: 4.8% Year-on-year change: 8.8% Change from trough: 65.0% Urban price jumps Stock on market still falling Half sell within 4 months List and sale prices close In Munster s three cities, prices rose by almost 5% There were 7,500 properties on the market in 50% of all properties in Munster find a buyer within Across Munster, sale prices were on average 1.3% between March and June, the largest increases since Munster in June - 2% lower than a year ago but up four months, down slightly from a year ago (54%). above the initial listed price - slightly below the mid-. almost 10% from March. differential three months ago. How fast are properties in Munster selling? How have house prices changed? Within 2 months 400,000 Within 4 months 350, , ,000 Within 6 months 200, ,000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% One year ago Previous quarter Current quarter 100,000 50, Proportion of properties marked as sale agreed and withdrawn, Cork City Limerick City Waterford City Rest-of-Munster 17 The Daft.ie House Price Report 2018 Average house price by area, The Daft.ie House Price Report

11 Connacht/Ulster Prices rise sharply in Donegal Average Price: 145,137 Qtr-on-qtr change: 4.2% Year-on-year change: -0.1% Change from trough: 27.7% Sligo Average Price: 141,891 Qtr-on-qtr change: 6.4% Year-on-year change: 6.0% Change from trough: 35.0% Mayo Average Price: 154,023 Qtr-on-qtr change: 5.9% Year-on-year change: 5.8% Change from trough: 38.4% Leitrim Average Price: 131,926 Qtr-on-qtr change: 6.8% Year-on-year change: 6.5% Change from trough: 53.6% Monaghan Average Price: 175,740 Qtr-on-qtr change: 7.0% Year-on-year change: 9.5% Change from trough: 54.0% Cavan Average Price: 157,802 Qtr-on-qtr change: 6.9% Year-on-year change: 5.8% Change from trough: 53.6% Galway City Average Price: 285,277 Qtr-on-qtr change: 4.3% Year-on-year change: 6.2% Change from trough: 77.6% Galway County Average Price: 201,879 Qtr-on-qtr change: 4.2% Year-on-year change: 10.7% Change from trough: 59.6% Roscommon Average Price: 140,123 Qtr-on-qtr change: 4.8% Year-on-year change: 8.1% Change from trough: 52.9% Jumps in prices Stock for sale still falling Half sell within 4 months Sale above list prices Prices in Connacht and Ulster rose by an average of There were 5,700 properties on the market in 51% of all properties in Connacht-Ulster find a buyer For properties selling in, the ultimate transaction 5.3% between March and June, the largest three-month Connacht-Ulster in June, down almost 5% year-on- within four months, up slightly from a year ago (48%). price was on average 5.7% above the initial list price. increase in the region since early. year - although up slightly since March. How fast are properties in Connacht/Ulster selling? How have house prices changed? Within 2 months 400, ,000 Within 4 months 300, ,000 Within 6 months 200, ,000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100,000 50,000 One year ago Previous quarter Current quarter Proportion of properties marked as sale agreed and withdrawn, The Daft.ie House Price Report 2018 Galway City Connacht Ulster The Daft.ie House Price Report

12 Over the last number of years, Daft.ie has collected a vast amount of data on the Irish property market. Each year tens of thousands of properties for sale or rent are advertised on the site. About the Report The goal of the Daft Report is to use this information to help all actors in the property market make informed decisions about buying and selling. In addition, because it is freely available, the Daft Report can help inform the media, the general public and policymakers about the latest developments in the property market. This is the Daft.ie House Price Report, the partner to the Daft.ie Rental Report, which will be issued next month. Together, they give house-hunters and investors more information to help them make their decisions. These twin reports mean that Daft is the only objective monitor of trends in both rental and sales markets on a quarterly basis, making the report an essential barometer for anyone with an interest in the Irish property market. The Daft Report was first launched in It has already become the definitive barometer of the Irish rental market and is being used by the Central Bank, mortgage institutions, financial analysts and the general public alike. The Daft.ie House Price report is Ireland s longest-running house price report, combining information from the Daft. ie archives with data from Ireland s Residential Property Price Register. Methodology and Sample Size The statistics are based on properties advertised on Daft.ie for a given period. The regressions used are hedonic price regressions, accounting for all available and measurable attributes of properties, with a Cooks Distance filter for outliers. The average monthly sample size for sale properties is 5,000. Indices are based on standard methods, holding the mix of characteristics constant, with the annual average of 2012 used as the base. About Daft.ie Daft.ie is Ireland s largest property website with over 2.5 million unique visitors generating over 228 million page impressions each month. Disclaimer The Daft.ie Report is prepared from information that we believe is collated with care, but we do not make any statement as to its accuracy or completeness. We reserve the right to vary our methodology and to edit or discontinue the indices, snapshots or analysis at any time for regulatory or other reasons. Persons seeking to place reliance on any information contained in this report for their own or third party commercial purposes do so at their own risk. Credits Economic Analysis: Ronan Lyons Marketing and Communications: Martin Clancy Layout and Design: William Tector Coming next: The Daft.ie Rental Report, The Daft.ie Rental Report will be published in May and will include a review of the performance of Ireland s rental market, plus all the usual indices, snapshots, trends and rental yield analysis, providing analysts, tenants, landlords, students and the public with the most up-to-date information on Ireland s rental market. All data is Copyright Daft Media Limited. The information contained in this report may only be reproduced if the source is clearly credited. Please contact media@daft.ie for further information. 21 The Daft.ie House Price Report 2018