Presented By: A District Council of the Urban Land Institute

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1 Presented By: A District Council of the Urban Land Institute

2 A District Council of the Urban Land Institute Thank you to our sponsors! Supporter Sponsors: Friend Sponsor:

3 A District Council of the Urban Land Institute Moderator: John Covert, Senior Director, West Region, Metrostudy

4 Urban Land Institute - Colorado Finding Room for the Missing Middle Denver Metro Area March 1, 2018 delivers business

5 Denver Metro Resale Market Total Housing Total Housing Listings are down -10%; Ann. Sales are up +2% 70,000 Month's supply of is based on the annual sales rate 7.0 Annual Sales/Active Listings 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,919 48, ,106 53,003 50,244 49, , ,676 21,623 20,891 25,572 24,534 24,603 19,600 16,456 18,257 Inventory Annual Sales MOS 42,070 38,818 39, ,993 46,299 53,869 54,033 56,044 56,041 57, ,706 7,888 4,355 4,384 4,265 3, Month's of Supply Source: Denver Metro Association of Realtors

6 Denver Metro Resale Market Median Sales Prices $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 Single Family Detached Ave SFD Sales Price up +13% since Dec-16 $430,679 $484,596 $350,000 $300,000 Median SFD Sales Price up 110% since 2009 Condo/Townhome Ave Condo Sales Price up 11% since Dec-16 $307,732 $342,754 $250,000 $200,000 Median Condo Sales Price up 148% since 2009 $150,000 $100,000 Source: Denver Metro Association of Realtors

7 Denver Market Average New Home Sales Prices & Average Finished Square Feet $600,000 3,400 Avg New Home Sales Price (Rolling 12-Mo) $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400, Month Ave New Home $ 12-Mo Ave SqFt $541,480 3,200 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 Average Finished Square Footage $350,000 Ave. Annual New Home Sales Prices up +4% 2,200 $300,000 2,000 Source: Metrostudy

8 Denver Market Average New Home Sales Prices & Average Finished Square Feet Housing Affordability (5% Down Payment) Home Price Down Payment 1 Mortgage Loan 2 Mortgage Rate Property Tax 3 Annual Property Insurance 4 Monthly Payment 5 Annual Mortgage Payment Required Household Income 6 $12,500 $237, % $2,250 $2,500 $1, $18, $61,188 $250,000 $12,500 $237, % $2,250 $2,500 $1, $18, $62,568 $12,500 $237, % $2,250 $2,500 $1, $19, $63,968 $15,000 $285, % $2,700 $3,000 $1, $22, $73,425 $300,000 $15,000 $285, % $2,700 $3,000 $1, $22, $75,081 $15,000 $285, % $2,700 $3,000 $1, $23, $76,762 $17,500 $332, % $3,150 $3,500 $2, $25, $85,663 $350,000 $17,500 $332, % $3,150 $3,500 $2, $26, $87,595 $17,500 $332, % $3,150 $3,500 $2, $26, $89,556 $20,000 $380, % $3,600 $4,000 $2, $29, $97,900 $400,000 $20,000 $380, % $3,600 $4,000 $2, $30, $100,108 $20,000 $380, % $3,600 $4,000 $2, $30, $102,350 $22,500 $427, % $4,050 $4,500 $2, $33, $110,138 $450,000 $22,500 $427, % $4,050 $4,500 $2, $33, $112,622 $22,500 $427, % $4,050 $4,500 $2, $34, $115,143 $25,000 $475, % $4,500 $5,000 $3, $36, $122,376 $500,000 $25,000 $475, % $4,500 $5,000 $3, $37, $125,135 $25,000 $475, % $4,500 $5,000 $3, $38, $127,937 $27,500 $522, % $4,950 $5,500 $3, $40, $134,613 $550,000 $27,500 $522, % $4,950 $5,500 $3, $41, $137,649 $27,500 $522, % $4,950 $5,500 $3, $42, $140,731 $30,000 $570, % $5,400 $6,000 $3, $44, $146,851 $600,000 $30,000 $570, % $5,400 $6,000 $3, $45, $150,162 $30,000 $570, % $5,400 $6,000 $3, $46, $153,524 Source: Metrostudy

9 Denver Metro New Home Activity Delta Between New & Resale Average Sales Prices Are Falling $550,000 $500, Month Ave New Home $ 12-Month Ave SFD Resale % Spread Between New & Resale 45% $541,480 40% Annual Average New & Resale Home Price $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $476,842 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% % Spread Between New & Resale $250,000 5% $200,000 0% Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Source: Metrostudy; Denver Metro Association of Realtors

10 Denver Metro New Home Activity Annual Starts & Closings Components of Change Source: Metrostudy

11 Denver Metro Condo Activity Distribution of New Home Starts by Product Type 90.0% 84% 80.0% 72% Source: Metrostudy 74% 70.0% 68% 60.0% 50.0% 55% 40.0% Condominium Annual New Home Starts Townhome/Duplex Annual New Home Starts Detached Annual New Home Starts 30.0% 20.0% 16% 26% 24% 21% 25% 13% 10.0% 7% 2% 5% 0.0% 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 4Q10 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 Source: Metrostudy

12 Denver Metro New Home Activity Townhome/Paired Home Annual Starts Trend 3,500 3,000 2,500 3,155 2,791 2,636 There were 543 TH starts in 4Q17, a -7% decline from 4Q16. Annual starts are up +25%. There were 544 closings in 4Q17, an increase of +6% from 4Q16. Annual closings (2,247) were up +22%. 2,946 Annual Starts 2,000 1,500 1,972 1,693 1,780 2,353 1,000 1,046 1,008 1, Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 4Q10 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 Source: Metrostudy

13 Condo Activity in Denver Metro Area delivers business

14 Coloradan Factory Flats CBD 3-Mile Radius 2017 Starts 263 (34%) 2017 Closings 31 Inventory 741 (54%) Orpheus Condos Lakehouse 17 S Park Condos Ogden Flats Wrigley on Penn Source: Metrostudy

15 Aria Co-housing Cassidy CBD 6-Mile Radius 2017 Starts 199 (26%) 2017 Closings 4 Inventory 316 (24%) Monaco 155 Mirador at Tennyson 1616 South Laurel Cherry Creek Observatory Flats Source: Metrostudy

16 CBD 10-Mile Radius 2017 Starts 29 (3%) 2017 Closings 5 Inventory 42 (3%) Flats at Villa Rosso Source: Metrostudy

17 WesTown Urban Flats CBD 20-Mile Radius 2017 Starts 186 (24%) 2017 Closings 62 Inventory 178 (13%) Shadow Canyon Prairie Walk on Cherry Creek Source: Metrostudy

18 Rest of Metro 2017 Starts 94 (12%) 2017 Closings 40 Inventory 140 (7%) Source: Metrostudy

19 Denver Metro Condo Activity Total New Condo Inventory by Home Price Range 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0-$299,999 $300,000 - $349,999 $350,000 - $399,999 $400,000 - $449,999 $450,000 - $499,999 $500,000 - $599,999 $600,000 - $699,999 3-Mile Radius 6-Mile Radius 10-Mile Radius 20-Mile Radius Rest of Metro Area $700,000 + Source: Metrostudy

20 Denver Metro New Home Activity Annual Starts by Price Range 2016 v ,000 1,750 1,500 Note: Single Family Detached 19% 22% 20% 18% 20% 22% Annual Starts 1,250 1,000 15% 16% 4Q16 Annual Starts 4Q17 Annual Starts % 9% 8% 5% 8% 7% 6% % < $299 $300-$349 $350-$399 $400-$449 $450-$499 $500-$599 $600-$699 $700 + Source: Metrostudy

21 Denver Metro New Home Activity Vacant Developed Lot Supply Below Month Equilibrium 24, Large Lot (>80') VDL Production (<79') VDL 90 20,000 Large Lot VDL MOS Production VDL MOS 80 Vacant Developed Lots 16,000 12,000 8,000 4,000 5,521 5,487 4,878 4,792 4,716 4,833 4,717 4,602 4,518 4,427 12,005 11,509 11,074 10,637 10,308 10,510 9,954 9,875 9,796 9,431 4,282 4,199 4,106 3,987 3,910 3,853 3,804 3,571 3,542 3,456 3,483 3,411 3,229 3,057 2,946 2,837 2,757 2,745 2,702 2,628 2,553 8,855 8,190 8,225 7,568 7,161 6,540 7,026 7,006 6,903 7,221 7,987 8,593 8,189 8,636 9,065 8,596 7,996 8,253 9,203 8,653 8,520 2,407 2,519 9,461 9, Months of Supply Q09 4Q10 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 0 Source: Metrostudy

22 Conclusions Major constraints such as land, labor, materials and development costs, fees, regulatory pressure will continue to drive home prices higher in The attached market is going to absorb more demand in the years ahead. New home builders are adjusting to try to meet swelling ranks of first-time and entry-level buyers Purchasing power will decline further in 2018 with rising costs and likely increase in mortgage rates Tight supplies of existing homes for sale will remain tight, making things increasingly difficult for first-time and entry-level buyers. But, things are happening in the market, and we re going to hear from our two panels of experts to discuss the state of affordable and attainable housing.

23 Thank You! PAGE 23

24 A District Council of the Urban Land Institute Panel 1: Poli cies and Trends in Att ainable Housing

25 A District Council of the Urban Land Institute Patri cia Gage, Executive Vice President, Colorado Business Bank

26 The Missing Middle Patricia Gage, EVP Colorado Business Bank 26

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28 A Family of Four 80 % AMI = $67,100/ annual income 31% Front Ratio = $1733/ month -taxes & insurance ($175) Available for P&I $1558 At 4.5%, 30 years = $307k Mortgage 28

29 Another Family of Four 65 % AMI = $52,065/ annual income 31% Front Ratio = $1345/ month -taxes & insurance ($150) -Available for P&I $1195 At 4.5%, 30 year= $236k Mortgage 29

30 Let s talk building costs 1,600 sf, $350,000 Townhouse in Northern Colorado Lot: $75,000 Taps: $11,000 Permit: $8,000 Hard/Soft: $196,000 TOTAL: $290,000 Sales Price: $350,000 Selling costs (7%): ($24,500) Net: $325,500 OH &Profit: $35,500 or 12% 30

31 Before the shovel hits the ground Lot + Taps + Permits= $94,000 or $476 of the mortgage payment. 31

32 80% ers: leaves $213,000 to spend on improvements. -Cost= $145/ sf -Can buy 1468 sf 65% ers: can buy 979 sf -If interest rates go up to 5%, home sizes decline to 1350 sf and 890 sf. 32

33 Solutions? 1. Subsidize tap fees 2. Subsidize lot costs -Big master plans can spread the cost -Community land trust (land lease) 3. Retain existing housing stock -DURA program 4. Smaller houses 5. Innovative Construction methods 33

34 A District Council of the Urban Land Institute Nate Santill anes, Director, Risk Management, CoBiz Insurance

35 Real Estate Practice FOR- S A L E A F F O R D A B L E S T U D E N T S E N I O R

36 REAL ESTATE PRACTICE Real Estate Focus Midmarket real estate developers, owners, syndicators and property managers Clients headquartered in Colorado, Arizona and the Rocky Mountain Region Properties throughout the 50 states For-Sale, For-Rent, Market rate, affordable/tax credit, senior, and student housing

37 DEVELOPMENT For Sale/Condo Development Litigation in last decade has created very difficult climate for condo development House Bill 1279 (May 2017): Amends the Colorado Common Interest Ownership Act (CCIOA) by requiring HOA boards to: Vallagio at Inverness vs. Metro Homes (June 2017): Provides the requirement for Developer consent to amend governing Association documents pertaining to dispute resolution and arbitration.

38 Protecting the Bottom Line

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40 PROPERTY BENCHMARKS Insurance Premium Examples For-Rent For-Sale What are adequate limits of Liability? 50-60% of hard construction costs (eg. $10M hard construction cost budget = $5M liability limits.) $100,000 liability limits per door (eg. 50 unit project = $5M liability limits)

41 DEVELOPMENT Additional Considerations Builders Risk Pollution Liability Professional Liability Management Liability Wrap Administration Quality Assurance / Quality Control (QAQC)

42 PROPERTY The role of your Broker View this relationship in the same vein as your attorney or CPA Early involvement for budgeting and pro-forma purposes as well as key contractual negotiations with Contractors insurance coverage forms which need to be dissected and tailored to fit your project.

43 A District Council of the Urban Land Institute Heather Lafferty, Executive Director, Habitat for Humanity of Metro Denver; Vice Chair, Denver Housing Advisory Committee

44 The Missing Middle - Attainable Homeownership Heather Lafferty, CEO March 1, 2018

45 We believe that everyone deserves a decent place to live. We believe that quality, affordable housing is something we all need to thrive. We believe strong and stable homes help build strong and stable communities.

46 Core Competencies Nearly 40 years of experience building high quality homes and lending affordable mortgages $ 100+ Homes Annually < 2% Foreclosures Partnership Housing Build, renovate and repair homes in partnership with lowincome families and volunteers 800+ loans in mortgage portfolio Homeowners invest their own time (sweat equity), energy (financial literacy classes) and financial resources (closing costs).

47 Habitat Homeowners Average annual income of $43,898 (55% AMI) and an average credit score of 761 Teachers Lab Technicians Construction Workers Nurses Grocery Store Clerks Airport Employees Retail Taxi Drivers Veterans

48 Meaningful and Lasting Impact 98% $1.5MM 70% High School Graduation Rate for children 18+ who lived in Habitat Denver homes. Colorado s average is 79%. An estimated $1,500,000 in public assistance funding was saved in 2016 because Habitat homeowners no longer needed it. of Habitat homeowners feel that they are doing better financially now than they were in the past.

49 Interest Rate Impact For every.5% a mortgage loan interest rate increases Interest Rate Buying Options Reduces purchasing power by 6% Reduces attainable housing stock that s affordable up to 21% (depending on family s income)

50 Habitat Mortgage Mechanisms to ensure affordability and protect investment 1 st mortgage 30 yr fixed, <3%, total housing costs no more than 30% of income 2 nd mortgage difference between 1 st and appraisal, forgivable at 30 years Shared equity Deed restrictions per jurisdiction, land lease

51 Market pressures Denver s growing population is putting incredible pressure on our housing inventory and is driving prices to record high levels. Studios and 1 bedroom Gentrification in NOAH neighborhoods Wages Multi-generational housing Market failure Affordable Homeownership 20% down payment and mortgage rates

52 Applications for Homeownership FY2016* FY2017-FY2018 to date Number of Applications Submitted * Note: Due to fiscal year change, FY2016 was 6 months.

53 Opportunities Collaboration is essential For-profit, Non-profit and Government. Partnership & Advocacy Partner on mixed-income developments Habitat qualifies buyers to purchase units at reduced price. Regulatory barriers Zoning, ADUs, City-owned land Additional resources to provide gap funding on units or reduction of fees.

54 FOUR KEY GOALS The plan also outlines four key goals: Create affordable housing in vulnerable areas AND in areas of opportunity Preserve affordability and housing quality Promote equitable and accessible housing options Stabilize residents at risk of involuntary displacement 55

55 A FOCUS ON SERVING RESIDENTS With current federal and local funding levels the City and its partners aim to create or preserve approximately 3,000 housing units by With current federal and local funding levels the City and its partners aim to serve at least 30,000 households by 2023 with programs aimed at stabilizing residents at risk of displacement or those seeking to obtain housing. CREATE AFFORDABILITY Five-Year Goal: 2,000 units PROMOTE ACCESS Five-Year Goal: 20,000 households PRESERVE AFFORDABILITY Five-Year Goal: 1,000 units STABILIZE RESIDENTS Five-Year Goal: 10,000 households 56

56 PRIORITIES ALONG INCOME SPECTRUM 40-50% of housing resources will be invested to serve people earning below 30% of Area Median Income (AMI) and those experiencing homelessness who are seeking to access or maintain rental housing, including: 20-25% of housing resources to serve residents experiencing homelessness 20-25% of housing resources to serve residents earning below 30% AMI 20-30% of housing resources will be invested to serve people earning 31% to 80% AMI who are seeking to access to rental housing or to maintain rental housing % of housing resources will be invested to serve residents seeking to become homeowners or remain in homes they already own. 57

57 Attainable Homeownership in Denver s five-year Affordable Housing Plan: Housing an Inclusive Denver 20 30% of housing resources will be invested to serve residents seeking to become homeowners or remain in homes they already own. Recommendation 1: Promote Programs that help households maintain their existing homes. Recommendation 2: Promote development of new affordable and mixed-income homeownership stock. Recommendation 3: Preserve affordability of existing income-restricted homeownership stock. Recommendation 4: Preserve affordability of existing unsubsidized affordable for-sale housing. Recommendation 5: Promote programs that help households access for-sale housing.

58 Questions? Heather Lafferty Executive Director & CEO Habitat for Humanity of Metro Denver

59 A District Council of the Urban Land Institute Panel 1: Modera ted Disc ussi on and Aud ienc e Questi ons

60 A District Council of the Urban Land Institute Panel 2: Case Stud ies Housing Solution s at an Attai nable Level

61 A District Council of the Urban Land Institute Kell y Leid, Executive Vice President, Operations, Oakwood Homes

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76 A District Council of the Urban Land Institute Blak e Shutl er, Principal, Compass Homes Development