Dubai Real Estate Market Review: FOURTH Quarter 2015

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1 Dubai Real Estate Market Review: FOURTH Quarter

2 ValuStrat in the Media 19 December December November November 2015 No drop in average Dubai property prices in November Preparing for new challenges For 2016, all eyes will be on the Federal More Dubai housing in the pipeline but experts warn of delivery delays Revealed: Areas in Dubai where residential property prices fell in Q3 Average property prices in Dubai showed no Reserve s interest rate policy decisions in Real Estate Consultancy firm ValuStrat said in In Q3 this year, Dubai apartment and villa decline in November, the first month since the the United States, the regional geo-political its Q3 report that Dubai s residential market markets saw values marginally decline start of a market correction in March, situation, as well as any effect from the anticipates a total supply of 18,000 apartments by 0.7% and 1.1% QoQ respectively. The according to a new report. The November planned removal of sanctions on Iran. With and 3,770 villas in Fifteen off-plan median apartment value in September was ValuStrat Price Index (VPI) for Dubai s a continued safe-haven status for Dubai, projects were launched in Q3 to add more AED 14,122 per sq m (AED 1,312 per sq residential market showed that, on average, ValuStrat expects the residential market than 30,000 units to the residential pipeline ft) and for villas was AED 14,660 per sq m there was no monthly change in values across to stabilise. Resulting in a rise in inquiries by Research manager at ValuStrat, (AED 1,362 per sq ft, according to the latest the 26 areas it monitors for apartments and for ready properties in prime areas, in Haider Tuaima, said: 27 per cent of this year s third quarter 2015 real estate report issued villas. The November VPI registered 98 index anticipation of capital appreciation, as well residential projects with approximately 7,800 by Dubai-based consulting firm ValuStrat. points, similar to the previous two months, the as in mid-affordable areas as investors units scheduled for completion, are delayed Compared to Q2, apartments in Business first time the residential market registering no search for higher rental yields. Off-plan and have been rescheduled for hand-over Bay saw an average value drop of 2.1%, effective monthly change since March, developers will continue to offer improved during the next two years, reflecting some followed by a 2% decline in International ValuStrat said. product and more competitive payment construction slowdown in this sector. City, and a 1.7% dip in Discovery Gardens, plans, in an effort to attract buyers. based on the ValuStrat Price index, a 100 point index that tracks residential values in 19 November November key locations in Dubai from January. Falling property prices seen helping Dubai to stay competitive Earlier this month, Standard & Poor s said real estate prices in Dubai will probably decline as much as 20 percent this year and could keep falling in Consultants at ValuStrat said property prices in Dubai have declined by more than 10 percent over the past year as investor interest has fallen. Its third quarter 2015 real estate report said that with a steady decline in prices, stagnant investor interest, delayed supply, stable rents and decreasing sale volumes, next year may witness a plateau in prices, indicating a buyer s market. Dubai s nine-month land transactions hold steady According to research by the consultancy ValuStrat, compared with the second quarter, the transacted price for residential property in Dubai during the third quarter was down by an average of 5.6 per cent (this is based on transactional activity garnered from 26 key freehold locations in Dubai and based on which the firm has set up a residential index ). The median transacted apartment price stands at Dh1,008 per square feet, while the median for a villa was Dh1,068 per square foot, according to the ValuStrat report. Statistical analysis suggests that next year may witness a plateau in prices, indicating a buyer s market with deals being encouraged as a result of price negotiation by vendors. 1 ValuStrat - Real Estate Research Report - Quarter 4,

3 Macro-Economic Snapshot 2015 Q4 - Real Estate Indicators Dubai s 2016 budget of AED 46.1 billion has been approved - 12% increase over the previous year, no deficit Infrastructure, transport and economics amounts to AED 16.6 billion as Dubai prepares to host Expo 2020, maintaining the size of its investments in infrastructure over the next five years 37% of spending will go towards social development, 21% for security, justice and safety sectors and 6% for government excellence sector Dubai s population as of December 2015 was 2.45 Million Population annual growth rate was 5.6% in 2015 with an average household size of 4.2 individuals ValuStrat Price Index (VPI) Residential Source: ValuStrat -6.4% Q4 Y-o-Y dubai Population Average Ticket Size Apartment Asking Rents Villa Asking Rents 2,003,000 2,105,000 2,210,300 2,320,800 2,450,000 Transactions Volume 6% *Residential & commercial trans. Source: DLD, Valustrat Office Prices -5% -14% *Residential & commercial trans. Source: DLD, Valustrat Office Asking Rents 0% -2% Hotel ADR -12% Q4 Y-o-Y Source: Hotel News Now STR Global, ValuStrat -2% Hotel Occupancy -2% Q4 Y-o-Y Source: Hotel News Now STR Global, ValuStrat 2011 Source: Dubai Statistics Centre 2012 Consumer Price Index vs Housing Index January 2012 DECEMBER J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Dubai increased by 3.0% in December when compared to last year Overall 2015 inflation rate was 3.99%, as housing and utility expenses registered a 7% increase when compared to Monthly inflation rates decreased for the first time in 2015 with October at -0.43%, -0.19% for November and -0.04% in December Housing and utility expenses inflation increased between 0.25%-0.5% on a monthly basis CPI General Rate (2007=100) Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and other fuels Source: Dubai Statistics Centre 3 ValuStrat - Real Estate Research Report - Quarter 4,

4 ValuStrat Price Index - Residential Residential A comparison of values of a fixed basket of properties in 26 freehold locations over time, has given the ValuStrat Price Index (VPI) the ability to compare like with like, factoring in property specifications such as quality, views, amenities and age. The Q4 VPI has shown a 6.4% decline of values YoY. However, the quarterly rate of decline has shown no significant change in values. October and November s residential VPI both registered 98.0 points, while December saw a marginal decline of 0.1% to 97.9 points. This marks the first time the residential market has registered no effective quarterly change since the current period of correction that began after the peak growth in March. Statistical analysis suggests that 2016 may witness a plateau in prices, indicating a buyer s market, anticipating higher rental yields for mid-affordable properties, and increased interest in prime properties in a search for capital appreciation. After a 6.4% YoY decline, more cash investors are seeking projects by well reputed developers particularly for ready properties Dubai apartment and villa markets saw values marginally decline by 0.1% and 0.4% QoQ respectively The median apartment value in December was AED 14,122 per sq m (AED 1,312 per sq ft) and for villas was AED 14,660 per sq m (AED 1,362 per sq ft) 100 Jan 103 Feb 107 Mar Source: ValuStrat 109 Apr 113 Compared to Q3, apartments in International City, Discovery Gardens and Business Bay saw a marginal value dip of 0.4% to 0.5%, while remaining apartment locations saw no significant change in values Villas in the Meadows and Jumeirah Park saw marginal declines in value of 1% and 0.8% respectively, however, other villa locations monitored by the VPI remained stable Valustrat Price Index 16 APARTMENT AND 10 VILLA LOCATIONS IN DUBAI [Base: Jan =100] May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 103 Nov 104 Dec 103 Jan 101 Feb Mar Apr May 2015 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Residential Supply The estimated total supply of residential apartments and villas in 2015 amounted to 17,328 units, bringing the total number of residential units in Dubai to approximately 485,000 Around half of the residential projects, with approximately 15,000 units, originally scheduled for completion in 2015, are delayed and have been rescheduled for handover during 2016 and Reflecting continued construction sector slowdown Carryover from 2015, and planned 2016 completions, indicate 30,000 apartments and 5,300 villas are slated for completion this year. However, as in recent years this volume may be subject to significant downward adjustment Seven off-plan residential projects were launched in Q4 to add more than 1,500 units to the residential pipeline by Projects included Address Residence Dubai Opera, Ritz Residence Al Furjan and the Park Ways at Dubai Hills RESIDENTIAL MEDIAN TRANSACTED PRICES -3.5% -11.7% -3.4% -5.6% 3.8% Last 2 Years Last Year Last 6 Months Last Quarter dubai Residential Supply ( 000 Units) 2016E E Existing New Apartments* New Villas* * May be subject to significant downward adjustment Source: Dubai Statistics Centre, REIDIN, MEED Projects, ValuStrat 5.31 Residential Prices The median residential transaction price witnessed a decline of 11.7% YoY When compared to the previous quarter, the median residential price was up for the first time in 18 months by 3.8% The median transacted apartment price stands at AED 11,324 per sq m (AED 1,052 per sq ft), down by 12% YoY and up by 4% QoQ The median transacted villa price stands at AED 11,582 per sq m (AED 1,076 per sq ft). Declining by 13% YoY and up by 0.7% QoQ ValuStrat observes that the above Dubai Land Dept statistics may include transaction prices agreed historically. Additionally, Q included the October 31st Oqood deadline for property registrations 5 ValuStrat - Real Estate Research Report - Quarter 4,

5 Residential Rents Office Prices Overall residential asking rents declined by RESIDENTIAL MEDIAN ASKING RENTALS OFFICE MEDIAN TRANSACTED PRICES Overall office prices fell by 13% year on year 5% YoY Negative growth of 4.6% seen during this Asking rents this quarter were 10.4% lower quarter when compared to the previous quarter than the same period two years ago Average prices of shell and core office space Villa and apartment asking rents saw a 3%- 5% drop YoY and a 2.3% dip QoQ Apartment asking rents were 11% lower than -10.4% -5.0% -6.2% -2.3% 15.4% -13.0% -6.7% -4.6% in Downtown Dubai decreased by an estimated 5% to 7% since Q3, to an average AED 24,760 per sq m (2,300 per sq ft) the same period two years ago Average shell and core prices in Business Bay Dubai s 2015 residential rental performance Last 2 Years Last Year Last 6 Months Last Quarter Last 2 Years Last Year Last 6 Months Last Quarter and Jumeirah Lake Towers ranged from AED led to most areas being negatively adjusted by the RERA 2016 Rental Increase Calculator 10,200 AED 13,000 per sq m (AED 950 AED 1,200 per sq ft) Dubai Silicon Oasis remained stable quarteron-quarter with an average asking price of AED 7,750 per sq m (AED 720 per sq ft) Office Office Supply 2015 began with an estimated 7.88 Million dubai OFFICE Supply (MILLION SQ M GLA) 2016E square meters (84.8 Million sq ft) of office Gross Leasable Area (GLA) 510,000 sq m (5.5 Million sq ft) GLA is expected to have been delivered during 2015, with 533,000 sq m (5.7 Million sq ft) Office Rents Median asking rents for office space remained relatively stable during Q4 OFFICE MEDIAN ASKING RENT PERFORMANCE 2015E during 2016 Key completions include One JLT by DMCC delivering 27,000 sq m (290,000 sq ft) of Only marginal change in median office market rentals were recorded in the last 12 months 21.7% -0.5% -0.5% -0.4% 7.53 GLA, and Iris Bay located in Business Bay, adding 34,000 sq m of GLA (370,000 sq ft) The median asking rent for office space was AED 1,173 per sq m (AED 109 per sq ft) Last 2 Years Last Year Last 6 Months Last Quarter The newly established free zone in Dubai DIFC saw the highest asking rents of AED Existing Stock Expected Supply World Trade Centre has added 90,000 sq 3,767 per sq m (AED 350 per sq ft) Source: REIDIN, MEED Projects, ValuStrat m (970,000 sq ft) of office space in Dubai Trade Centre District (DTCD) phase one 7 ValuStrat - Real Estate Research Report - Quarter 4,

6 Retail Hospitality Retail Supply Hotel Supply RETAIL MALLS & SHOPPING CENTRES 2015 ( 000 SQ M GLA) 37 Convenience (<3k sq m) ,711 Neighborhood Community Regional SuperRegional (<3k-10k sq m) (<10k-30k sq m) (<30k-90k sq m) (>90k sq m) This quarter saw an additional 167,000 sq m (1.8 Million sq ft) of retail mall Gross Leasable Area (GLA) 130,000 sq m (1.4 million sq ft) of GLA has been added with the opening of Nakheel s Dragon Mart 2 located in International City Nakheel also inaugurated the 37,000 sq m (400,000 sq ft) Golden Mile Galleria on Palm Jumeirah Retail announcements this quarter included a 72,000 sq m (775,000 sq ft) GLA Avenues Mall, located in Dubai Silicon Oasis and a second 20,440 sq m (220,000 sq ft) Irish Village within Dubai Parks and Resorts This quarter, Dubai saw the opening of the region s largest Apple Store at the Mall of the Emirates HOTEL ROOM SUPPLY ( 000 KEYS) 2016E E Hotel and Serviced Apt Rooms New Supply Hotel Performance The estimated total number of hotel rooms and hotel apartments in 2015 stood at more than 100,000 Six hotels with 2,138 hospitality units were added in Q4, five of which are 5-star and one 4-star New hotel openings included Palazzo Versace in Culture Village, St. Regis Al Habtoor City, Steigenberger Hotel Business Bay and Hilton Garden Inn Mall of the Emirates Eleven new hotels were announced adding 4,251 keys to the pipeline over the next three years Notable hotel announcements included St. Regis Dubai - The Palm, Mercure Hotel in JVT, Taj Arabia in Dubai Land and The Rosemont Hotel & Residences in TECOM Retail Performance Prime mall in-line retail space continued to command high rentals ranging from AED 3,800 per sq m (AED 353 per sq ft) and up to AED 8,100 per sq m (AED 750 per sq ft) Finding vacant food court outlets within prime malls remained a challenge, asking rentals ranged from AED 7,600 per sq m (AED 706 per sq ft) and AED 10,800 per sq m (AED 1,000 per sq ft) Dubai Duty Free recorded AED billion in sales during 2015, 1.5% lower than, which in turn was 7.3% higher than. December 15 sales reached AED 720 million compared to AED 749 million in December 14 Line Shops Food Courts Restaurants Hypermarket Entertainment Anchors PRIME RETAIL MALL ASKING RENTS 8,100 3,800 7,600 5,600 4,000 1,900 1,200 1,300 1,000 1,400 1,000 AED / SQM High Low 10,800 The average occupancy in Q4 was 80% October and November saw occupancy rates of 80% and 83% respectively With increasing new hotel room supply, year-on-year Average Daily Rate (ADR) for October dropped by 14.7%, November declined by 9.1% Continued downward pressure on room rates is expected in the medium term due to supply exceeding demand, currency fluctuations, oil prices and geo-political situations affecting general sentiment ADR RevPAR Occupancy % aed 1, monthly hotel performance % 67.50% 45.00% 22.50% 0.00% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec* 2015 Source: Hotel News Now - STR Global, ValuStrat * Expected 9 ValuStrat - Real Estate Research Report - Quarter 4,

7 ValuStrat is a firm regulated by RICS About ValuStrat ValuStrat is a leading consulting firm headquartered in Dubai providing Advisory, Valuation, Research, Due Diligence and Divestment services across a diverse range of industry sectors since Offices in UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar serve over 750 corporate clients in the Middle East. Client base includes financial institutions, local corporates, multinationals, governments, SME s, family businesses and start-ups. Some of the key sectors serviced by ValuStrat s consulting team include real estate, hospitality, healthcare, education, manufacturing, retail, entertainment, transport and FMCG. ValuStrat Price Index The ValuStrat Price Index (VPI) for Dubai s residential sector is constructed to represent the monthly price change experienced by typical freehold residential units within Dubai. The VPI provides an up-to-date opinion of current pricing. The VPI is a comprehensive weighted sample of all property types across the city. The latest in-depth 100+ page report that includes citywide analysis of 26 freehold districts, including the ValuStrat Price Index, transaction volumes, service charges, Price to Rent Ratios and Net Yields in now available to subscribers. Declan King, MRICS Director & Group Head of Real Estate declan.king@valustrat.com Haider Tuaima Research Manager haider.tuaima@valustrat.com Vismer Mulenga, MRICS Associate Director vismer.mulenga@valustrat.com Cheryl McAdam, MRICS Head of Residential Valuations cheryl.mcadam@valustrat.com Research Methodology Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of this document. New supply data covers 38 defined areas in Dubai including non-freehold areas. Only completed and under construction projects are included. The new supply data does not include announced projects, and projects in design phase. The new supply database does not take into account most private building projects. Prices are calculated from actual transactions that have been carefully cleansed to exclude duplicates, bulk sales and outdated transactions. Rental data is derived from a carefully cleansed database of listings that don t include duplicates, potential errors and outliers. Copyright ValuStrat Consulting FZCo This document is the property of ValuStrat Consulting FZCo and must not be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written consent of ValuStrat Consulting FZCo. We welcome your constructive feedback and any corrections that may need to be made to this document. ValuStrat Consulting FZCo does not accept any liability in negligence or otherwise for any damage suffered by any party resulting from reliance on this document. DUBAI Dubai@valustrat.com RIYADH Riyadh@valustrat.com JEDDAH Jeddah@valustrat.com DOHA Doha@valustrat.com