Urbanization and Housing Investment

Transcription

1 Urbanization and Housing Investment Somik V. Lall IIMB IMF Conference on Housing Markets, Financial Stability and Growth Bangalore, December 11, 2014 Joint paper with Basab Dasgupta and Nancy Lozano; World Bank Policy Research Paper 7110

2 Context Rapid Urbanization in emerging economies 2.6 billion people in cities over the next 30 years Asia 1.4 billion; Africa 1 billion Challenge: consumption cities Increasing demand for infrastructure, basic services and housing Limited financial and administrative capabilities Infrastructure backlogs Slums

3 Housing Housing consumption enhances living standards Housing investment is the largest asset class for families Housing construction in developing countries Labor intensive job creation

4 Efforts to target housing at those who need it most have encountered challenges The majority of households cannot afford formal homes State efforts have focused on the housing sector have met with limited success (e.g. Tanzania NHC 16,000 units)

5 Research Questions Has investment in housing kept pace with urbanization? What are the impacts of differences in financing capabilities of countries on housing investment?

6 Dataset National accounts consistent dataset of housing investment covering over 90 countries Housing spending by households, the government, and the private sector Covers the informal sector

7 Measuring housing investment with data from National Accounts (SNA Manual, Anex.1111) Buildings that are used entirely or primarily as residences, including any associated structures, such as garages, and all permanent fixtures customarily installed in residences. Houseboats, barges, mobile homes and caravans used as principal residences of households are also identified primarily as dwellings. Costs of site clearance and preparation included. 7

8 Limitations Lower bound estimate to GCF in housing Ownership of Dwellings does not include housing that has been built but is still in the hands of developers (inventories). Measured in market prices but uses cost in the absence of reference price. Data quality as good as National Accounts Statistics. 8

9 Housing spending follows a S shaped trajectory $3,000 $36,000

10 Africa: Urbanization is rapid whilst the continent is poor(er)

11 Magnitude of housing spending increases with economic development

12 Is housing keeping up with urbanization Elasticity of housing spending to urban growth

13 Is Africa different?

14 Silver lining upswing in Africa s housing investment Recent growth in Africa s housing investment coordinated with increasing economic growth in the past decade

15 Silver lining upswing in African housing investment Recent growth in Africa s housing investment now in line with countries at similar development levels

16 Government Debt Housing Finance Domestic and international credit

17 Housing Finance main findings OECD Foreign investment/ savings Consistent with body of knowledge on international capital mobility and housing investment Developing countries Domestic savings New insights from this analysis

18 Housing finance Drivers of housing investment Tap domestic savings or foreign savings (credit market) LICs tap domestic savings OECD countries tap foreign savings (CAB)

19 Housing Finance

20 Implications Investment and consumption of housing will increase with economic development Speed up as Africa reaches Middle Incomes But this will happen after much of urbanization has taken place What can policy makers do to manage urbanization in the short term?

21 Supporting evidence of early development levels from household survey data food expenditures TZA STP NGA LBR SLE SEN ZMB NER MOZ ETH BFA GHA COM KEN CIV UGA MWI AGO RWA Global LIC 47% MIC 29% HIC 13% Korea % % CMR housing expenditures country Fitted values

22 Expansion of basic services and infrastructure ensure that that future investment in housing, infrastructure, and commercial structures is coordinated.. Need to expand coverage given rapid population growth Infrastructure layout can help in building efficient cities completely organic housing developments may be costly to the economy, society and the environment

23 Increases in infrastructure shortages are common among African countries 100% 80% 64.5% 65.5% % of households facing infrastructure shortage 60% 40% 20% 0% 20% 40% 31.0% 12.7% 14.1% 8.2% 4.2% 0.9% 2.6% 17.1% 7.5% 6.7% 4.1% 2.6% 17.5% CIV CMR ETH GHA KEN MOZ MWI RWA SEN STP TZA UGA ZMB 55.7% 60% percent difference from previous time period

24 .. But gains for supporting infrastructure investments are high Supporting econometric analysis stresses the urgency of improving access to basic services and highlights the value that household assign to such improvements. Consider Kigali where households are willing to pay $794 for an electricity connection. Similarly, in Dar es Salaam, a rapidly growing city without a sewer system, households are willing to pay around $125 for an improved toilet. In Kigali, access to an improved toilet is valued at $159 while in Abidjan it is as much as $601.

25 Strengthen the institutions that enable expansion of housing investment Options to tap domestic and international credit markets

26 Strengthen the institutions that enable expansion of housing investment

27 Conclusion Urbanization will be a messy process Africa s urgent priority for public policy is to strengthen the institutions for urban planning and service delivery The demand for housing will increase with economic development Building the financial institutions to prepare for growing housing demand will be important Getting institutions to lead will contribute to efficient, inclusive, and sustainable cities.