Megacities: Lessons of Experience

Transcription

1 Megacities: Lessons of Experience FT Urban Development Summit Chongqing, October 18, 2011 Ede Ijjasz Sector Manager, Sustainable Development, China and Mongolia The World Bank 1

2 The World Bank s Urban Strategy Helping cities plan for an economically successful and environmentally sustainable future Focusing on the core elements of the city system Encouraging progressive land and housing markets Supporting city economies Making pro-poor policies a city priority Promoting a safe and sustainable urban environment

3 Megacities home to 320 million people worldwide 460 million by 2025 Source: World Urbanization Prospects 2009 rev 3

4 29 urban agglomerations will be megacities by

5 Megacities today 5

6 Megacities

7 Managing megacities what are the key challenges? Metropolitan wide management coordination Achieving land use, urban spatial form, and infrastructure coordination Integrating informal settlements Making megacities more resilient Decision making based on transparent data 7

8 Large metropolitan areas are often the largest agglomerations of people and jobs Employment in high tech manufacturing City Size Classification Employment in IT services 8

9 However, population and economic growth spill beyond administrative boundaries 9

10 However, population and economic growth spill beyond administrative boundaries India largest cities Employment Growth in Metropolitan Cores and Periphery, by Sector ( ) Source: Economic Census 10

11 And most megacities do not have metropolitan wide administrative structures generating economic and social challenges Ineffective traffic management and parking management limiting the effectiveness of inter municipal bus system Design of effective intermodal transport integration Watershed management across municipalities to manage lakes and rivers Development of uneconomically small wastewater facilities 11

12 Managing megacities what are the key challenges? Metropolitan wide management coordination Achieving land use, urban spatial form, and infrastructure coordination Integrating informal settlements Making megacities more resilient Decision making based on transparent data 12

13 Compact and Smart Cities require Urban Planning Source: Bertaud, A., and T. Pode, Jr., Density in Atlanta: Implications for Traffic and Transit (Los Angeles: Reason Foundation, 2007). 13

14 Seoul focused on strong institutions, connective infrastructure, and targeted interventions to enable rapid transformation Cheoggyecheon riverbank slums in Seoul: 1955 vs Nangok Slums in Seoul: 1995 vs. 2007

15 Rapid Transformations are Possible SHENZEN THREE DECADES AGO

16 Transformations are possible when land use is fluid SHENZEN TODAY

17 Curitiba started early on implementing these principles and still reaping benefits Curitiba started its sustainable development trajectory at a population of 300,000 it is now 1.7 million. How they did it? Institutions - Innovative Land Management Connectivity - Affordable and Integrated Bus System Interventions Social considerations, inclusive neighborhoods

18 Integrated land and transport development managed congestion costs Lowest rates of urban air pollution in Brazil and 45% public transport use (investment cost $3million/km - this is about 5% the cost of an underground) In 2000, in USA, congestion in 75 metropolitan areas caused fuel and time losses valued at US$ 67.5 billion contrast this to Curitiba Source: IPPUC 18

19 Flexibility and granularity in managing urban expansion and densities

20 Lay the foundations of connective infrastructure such to integrate labor markets Transmilenio in Bogota Source: World Development Report 2009, Yepes 2008

21 The Transmilenio has reduced congestion and gains capitalized in the property market Between 2002 and 2008 the annual ridership growth has been around 12% On average, 36,000 new users per year Positive impact on residential prices between 5.8 and 17 percent (Calvo et.al, 2007)

22 Complement supply side improvements with demand management to manage congestion Congestion Pricing Ease of Traffic Congestion within the City London; Singapore; Stockholm Milan (linked with GHG emission) London: 137m being raised, in the financial year 2007/08, to invest back into improving public transport in London. Reduced traffic 21% lower than pre charge levels (70,000 fewer cars/ day) within the charging zone. Increased usage of bus and cycle.

23 Managing megacities what are the key challenges? Metropolitan wide management coordination Achieving land use, urban spatial form, and infrastructure coordination Integrating informal settlements Making megacities more resilient Decision making based on transparent data 23

24 Neighborhood upgrading in Bogota using zoning deregulation, low income finance and upgrading Community Centers & Parks Streets Paving Mobility Corridors POT & Neighborhood Formalization Tenure Security A typical Slum Of Bogotá Sharp when preceded by progressive land policies and connective infrastructure

25 Need to recognize Voice and Choice of Low Income City Residents in Decision Making

26 ..by recognizing that Poor Community with Housing Rights become key Stakeholders

27 Action: Reconversion & On site resettlement Off site Resettlement Impact: Job Creation During Construction Operations & Maintenance off new facilities security shop employees maintenance, etc. Job Job matching matching & Education Education needs needs Re configuring the City with Community Participation releases Land Values

28 Enforce social contract to ensure expansion of basic services across urbanizing areas example from Bogota Colombia

29 and build Transparency through Public Participation: PNPM in Indonesia Complaint Handling Training modules Contact Number of Facilitator UPP today (news) Dialogue forum Dissemination of learning and article on interesting experience, best practice Consultant s Contract Detailed Consultant Invoices Implementation progress : MIS and quick status Profile of urban ward Utilization of fund at ward, region, national level Address of UPP Information Center 2,500 visitors / day

30 Managing megacities what are the key challenges? Metropolitan wide management coordination Achieving land use, urban spatial form, and infrastructure coordination Integrating informal settlements Making megacities more resilient Decision making based on transparent data 30

31 Risk Management in Cities Dynamic Green Resilient Adoption 1. Job of Cities Creation Low Carbon Pathway Sustainable Management of 2. Affordable Housing Existing & Future Risks Elimination of air, land and 3. Culturally water Pollution Vibrant Vulnerable Populations adequately safeguarded Universal Access to Basic Urban Services Prepared for Cascading Failures

32 (Re) Building Greener, Better Quality and Safer Cities Don t make the same mistakes from the past. Consider building urban resilience as part of long term development strategy to improve livelihoods of people, implementing effecting land use planning and disaster risk reduction strategies. Transport Vulnerability Energy Water Resource Management Buildings Industry Health Urban areas Food security

33 Resilient City: Safeguard Vulnerable Populations against Hazards (Disasters and Diseases) Cost benefit analysis based on criteria developed in the risk analysis and social and political feasibility. Resilience measures fit together and address uncertainty within the project. Consider all options available (structural/nonstructural) Robust planning instead of optimal planning to account for uncertainties Integrated approach Example: Integrated flood risk management

34 A Smart City Invests in Early Warning Systems Cost effectiveness Weather services support efforts to reduce disaster risks, to alleviate poverty, to enhance food security and protect health. World Bank study in the Eastern Europe and Central Asia Region suggested that each one euro spent in meteorological systems yields up to four euro in avoided damages.

35 Engaging the Community to deliberate on Decision that affect them is Critical Communities need to be at the center stage at all stages of disaster risk management programs they are the first responders during an emergency and the most critical partners in reconstruction. Communities need to be fully empowered partners in policymaking and local leaders in implementation. Community Driven Development (CDD) operations are a good option to tap into local knowledge and expertise and establishing mechanisms and networks. In Vietnam a Community Based Disaster Risk Management program has been so successful that in 2009, the Government announced it would replicate the CBDRM program in 6,000 communes across the country

36 Managing megacities what are the key challenges? Metropolitan wide management coordination Achieving land use, urban spatial form, and infrastructure coordination Integrating informal settlements Making megacities more resilient Decision making based on transparent data 36

37 Engaging City Officials with Credible Evidence is Important as well: Metro Manila Urban Metabolism

38 Exhibit 14 Abatement potential by category Abatement potential 2015 kton CO2e 1 Existing commercial Buildings 2 Power and grid system1 3 Existing residential buildings PRELIMINARY Major abatement options Air conditioning efficiency improvement Overall insulation Distributed energy Purchasing green power Solar based heating Insulation 4 New buildings 5 Behavior and capability 6 Road and traffic 14 Standards 65% building code compliances Standards 75% building code compliances Greener living behaviors 8 Training and capability building 3.1 Smart traffic system Electric vehicles Total includes purchasing green power SOURCE: Team analysis McKinsey & Company 9 Engaging Industry: Example of the Shanghai Low Carbon City Project

39 Cebu Urban Transport ICT Demonstration Using GPS Enabled Mobile Phones Distributed to Taxis to Support Traffic Data Collection and Dispatch Generate real time congestion maps (for use in adjusting signal timings, testing congestion management actions, supporting evidencebased investment decisions) Identify sudden network stoppages (e.g., accidents) Generate automated corridor traffic counts. Establish low cost high quality dispatch system Civic Engagement Platform Leverage SMS based tools to supplement City survey activities. Transparent, open source platform for verifying, prioritizing, directing, and managing reports for response, and supporting evidence based planning.

40 Managing Megacities Concluding Thoughts Megacities will need to connect national economies with global markets Job creation remains key ease of entry for private sector, deregulating land and housing markets, enabling metropolitan wide infrastructure development Megacities will expand physically People demand amenities, larger homes as incomes rise and transport costs fall Avoid locking in into unsustainable urban forms Simultaneous reforms in land markets and infrastructure finance needed Megacities need to be inclusive Priority for social and spatial inclusion Linking (low income) people with job opportunities remain key Targeted projects for inclusion work better when preceded by investments in land policy and connective infrastructure Megacities need to consider climate change mitigation and adaptation in a green growth development path 40

41 Concluding Thoughts Megacities and Climate Change Mitigation Industry Forestry Urban Solid Waste Transport Water

42 Concluding Thoughts Megacities and Climate Change Adaptation

43 To put the world s best knowledge and innovations in the hands of policymakers and practitioners so that they can harness urban growth for better development outcomes. 43

44 EXTEND PROFESSIONAL NETWORKS AND FOSTER COMMUNITIES OF PRACTICE PROMOTE COMMON URBAN INDICATORS AND WIDEN ACCESS TO URBAN DATA EXCHANGE AND CO CREATE KNOWLEDGE ON PARTICIPANT SELECTED ISSUES FOR NEW POLICY INSIGHTS 44

45 McKinsey Global Institute Joint research and paper reviews UPenn, NYU, DUSPMIT, Harvard, Columbia Knowledge Exchange seminar and Joint research activities Cisco Knowledge Exchange Series on ICT in Urban Development Leontief Center, St. Petersburg TBD India Institute for Human Settlements, & IPS, Sri Lanka Regional events & joint research activities Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements (KRIHS) Joint East Asia Launch event of UrbKP; East Asia Regional Coordinator Fedesarrollo Joint Latin America and Caribbean Launch event of UrbKP; LAC Regional Coordinator Africa Centre for Cities & Africa Planning Schools Network (for FY12) Knowledge Exchange seminar and Joint research activities Centre for Liveable Cities Collaboration on World City Summit Brisbane City Council/APAC City Summit Collaboration on e library Future Cities Institute Knowledge Creation and discussions moderator on platform 45