SEPTEMBER 2018 ISSUE 15. House Prices Stabilize in Quarter 2 of 2018

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1 SEPTEMBER 2018 ISSUE 15 Figure 1: Overall Price Change (%) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q House Prices Stabilize in Quarter 2 of 2018 There was a 1.76 percent overall increase in house prices during the second quarter of This represents a marginal decline from the previous quarter s 2.08 percent increase (Figure 1), reflecting a sense of price stabilization and therefore non-sustenance of the surge seen in the first quarter. Whereas the price changes during the quarter represents a general recovery from a low of 0.42 percent increase during the third quarter of 2017, there is need for a cautious assessment of the implied market recovery. A true confirmation of the state of the housing market from a price perspective can only be affirmed by the evolution of the index over the next four quarters. Both the supply and demand conditions currently being influenced by the state of the economy s anticipated recovery from a slow rate of growth in 2017, is likely to hinge on the requisite preparations on investments towards the affordable housing objective of Government under the Big 4 Agenda. Continued on page 2... Highlights 1House prices rose significantly by 1.76 percent during the second quarter of This was an evidence of some sense of stabilization of house prices. 2 The house price drivers in quarter 2 of 2018 remained largely unchanged compared to the previous quarters. Prices in quarter 2 of 2018 were largely driven by size of the house; parking space; borehole; type of the house; and the floor is in the case of apartments. 3Apartments retained their dominant share in quarter 2 of 2018 accounting for 37.78% of the total units offered for sale. Bungalows took percent with maisonettes taking the remaining percent of the total units sold.

2 KBA HOUSING PRICE INDEX SEPTEMBER 2018 Technical Note The index follows a Laspeyers index method. In this method, the index is computed by getting the ratio of the estimated current quarter price from the hedonic method multiplied the weights of the preceding quarter to the price of the preceding quarter multiplied by the respective weights of that quarter. The weights of the quantitative variables are obtained by getting their respective mean values. For the dummy variables however, their weights are computed as the proportions of the number of houses possessing a certain attribute to the total number of houses. Thus the index is computed by the formula: House Prices stabilize in quarter two of continued from page 1 Further, there is an evident move towards increased investments on the demand side, a departure from the delayed decisions that coincided with the political events of The price recovery seen over the past two quarters is a manifestation of such investments. The overall index results based on a fixed base since the first quarter of 2017 represents nearly a 25 percent house prices increase over a five and a half year period (Figure 2). Table 1: Price Movement Series Period Figure 2: KBA HPI Evolution with a fixed base* with a moving base Q3_ Q4_ Q1_ Q2_ Q3_ Q4_ Q1_ Q2_ * Based on Base period Q1_ Where; is the shadow price from the estimated hedonic function for the current quarter; is the shadow prices from the estimated hedonic function for the preceding quarter; and are the weights of the respective variables for the preceding quarter. 100 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q Quarter-on-Quarter with Q1_2013 as Fixed Base Right) 2

3 SEPTEMBER 2018 KBA HOUSING PRICE INDEX House Price Drivers Remain Unchanged in Quarter 2 The house price drivers in quarter 2 of 2018 remained relatively unchanged compared to the previous quarters. Apart from the house features relating to the size of the house, prices in Q2 of 2018 were also largely driven by presence of parking space, presence of borehole for guarantee water supply, the type of the house and the floor upon which the house is in case of apartments. The stability in the attributes that influence the house prices, which has been observed over not just the previous two quarters but even for much of 2017, reflects the long term nature of investments associated with home ownership Apartments regain lead in Q2 price increase Figure 3: Total units offered Maisonettes 29% 38% 33% The houses on offer in the market during the quarter represented a fairly equitable distribution amongst, apartments, bungalows and maisonettes, albeit with apartments taking the bigger share. In quarter 2 of 2018, apartments accounted for percent of the total units offered in the market as per the data used for analysis. Bungalows accounted for percent with maisonettes accounting for the remaining percent of the total units sold as per the data used for this analysis. Unlike in the previous quarters where the lower market segment has been active compared to the middle and upper segment, the market activity seemed to have been fairly uniform in all market segments. The biases posted in the earlier analysis where the market favours one segment at the expense of the other seems to have been fairly muted in the second quarter of Bungalows Apartments 3

4 KBA HOUSING PRICE INDEX SEPTEMBER 2018 Table 2: Housing Price Drivers for Quarter 2_2018 Source SS df MS Model Residual Prob > F = # observations = 426 R-squared = Adj R-squared = LN VALUE Coef Std. Err. t - stats P> t [95% Conf. Interval] Plinth area Number of Bedrooms Number of Bathrooms House type Locational Dummy Number of floors Presence of Backyard Presence of Balcony Presence of DSQ Presence of Gym Swimming pool Garage/parking Master ensuite Separate dining Gated community Presence of borehole Presence of geysercloset Presence of Elevator Constant Presence of Guestroom Presence of Elevator Backup - generator Constant Housing Price Quarter 2,

5 SEPTEMBER 2018 KBA HOUSING PRICE INDEX Table 3: Housing Price Drivers for Quarter 1_2018 Source SS df MS Model Residual Prob > F = # observations = 511 R-squared = Adj R-squared = LN VALUE Coef Std. Err. t - stats P> t [95% Conf. Interval] Plinth area Number of Bedrooms Number of Bathrooms House type Age Time dummy (Q1_2018) Locational Dummy Number of floors Presence of Backyard Presence of Balcony Presence of DSQ Presence of Gym Swimming pool Prox. to Social amenities Master ensuite Garage/parking Separate dining Gated community Presence of Borehole Presence of Guestroom Presence of Elevator Backup - generator Constant Housing Price Quarter 1,

6 KBA HOUSING PRICE INDEX SEPTEMBER 2018 Table 4: Housing Price Drivers for Quarter 4_2017 Source SS df MS Model Residual Prob > F = # observations = 234 R-squared = Adj R-squared = LN VALUE Coef Std. Err. t - stats P> t [95% Conf. Interval] Plinth area Number of Bedrooms Number of Bathrooms House type Age Time dummy (Q4_2017) Locational Dummy Number of floors Presence of Backyard Presence of Balcony Presence of DSQ Presence of Gym Swimming pool Prox. to Social amenities Master ensuite Garage/parking Dining Gated community Presence of borehole Presence of Guestroom Presence of Jaccuzi Presence of Elevator Backup - generator Presence of woodedfloor Constant Housing Price Quarter 4,

7 SEPTEMBER 2018 KBA HOUSING PRICE INDEX Table 5: Inter quarter Sub-regional indices (Moving base): Q Q Region 1 Region 2 Region 3 Apartments Bungalows Maisonettes Apartments Bungalows Maisonettes Apartments Bungalows Maisonettes Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Table 6: Inter quarter Sub-regional indices (Fixed base): Q Q Region 1 Region 2 Region 3 Apartments Bungalows Maisonettes Apartments Bungalows Maisonettes Apartments Bungalows Maisonettes Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q * Definition of the Sub-regions listed overleaf ** Based on Base period Q1_2013 7

8 KBA HOUSING PRICE INDEX SEPTEMBER 2018 The DEFINITION OF THE SUB-Regions REGION 1 Athi River, Mlolongo, Mavoko, Nakuru, Ngong, Ruaka, Syokimau, Embakasi, Kahawa Wendani, Thika, Mtwapa, Utange, Kitengela, Kiembeni, Nyeri, Likoni, Eldoret, Ruiru, Kilifi,Thika road (Kasarani, Roysambu, Ruaraka), Meru, Bungoma. REGION 2 Thindigua (Kiambu Road), Kiambu, South B, South C, Kabete, Komarock, Imara Daima, Membley, Buruburu, Rongai, Waiyaki Way (Uthiru, Regen, Kinoo, Kikuyu), Mbagathi road, Ngong Road, Langata. REGION 3 Kileleshwa, Kilimani, Lavington, Westlands, Spring Valley, Riverside, Milimani (Kisumu), Milimani (Nakuru), Runda, Karen, Garden Estate, Parklands, Ridgeways, Muthaiga, Loresho, Kitisuru, Adams Arcade, Nyali, Mountain View, Nyari. Kenya Bankers Association Centre for Research on Financial Markets and Policy Kenya Bankers Association 13th Floor, International House, Mama Ngina Street P.O. Box NAIROBI Telephone: / / /5 Cell: / Fax: research@kba.co.ke Website: 8