THE GLOBAL CRISIS OF URBAN HOUSING AFFORDABILITY

Transcription

1 I A C P B e i j i n g Edward Goetz University of Minnesota THE GLOBAL CRISIS OF URBAN HOUSING AFFORDABILITY 2 J u l y

2 The unaffordable city

3 From McKinsey Global Institute, Blueprint for addressing the global affordable housing challenge, 2014.

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5 A sampling of (Un)affordability rankings Monthly rents 1 Monaco London Bermuda New York Hong Kong Tokyo Paris Moscow Singapore Geneva 3050

6 A sampling of (Un)affordability rankings Monthly rents What US$1m will buy 1 Monaco 5931 Monaco 15 2 London 5683 Hong Kong 20 3 Bermuda 4182 London 22 4 New York 4057 New York 27 5 Hong Kong 4013 Geneva 40 6 Tokyo 3856 Sydney 40 7 Paris 3787 Singapore 42 8 Moscow 3749 Shanghai 48 9 Singapore 3159 Paris Geneva 3050 Beijing 58 Square meters

7 A sampling of (Un)affordability rankings Monthly rents What US$1m will buy Square meters Median Multiple 1 Monaco 5931 Monaco 15 Hong Kong London 5683 Hong Kong 20 Sydney Bermuda 4182 London 22 Vancouver New York 4057 New York 27 Melbourne Hong Kong 4013 Geneva 40 San Jose Tokyo 3856 Sydney 40 Auckland Paris 3787 Singapore 42 San Francisco Moscow 3749 Shanghai 48 London Singapore 3159 Paris 57 San Diego Geneva 3050 Beijing 58 Los Angeles 8.1 Med price / med inc.

8 Rise in housing prices variable across cities

9 Ghost cities

10 Demolition of unused apartment building in Xi an, November CRI on-line

11 from, Housing for Inclusive Cities: The Economic Impact of High Housing Costs, Global Cities Business Alliance

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13 The great cities are becoming elite citadels Global cities are turning into vast gated communities where the one percent reproduces itself. Simon Kuper, Financial Times (2013)

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17 Nomenclature of extreme wealth alpha territories Global power brokers Voices of authority Business class Serious money One Hyde Park, London

18 15 Central Park West Kensington Palace Gardens Jakarta

19 Nomenclature of extreme wealth alpha territories Global power brokers (GPB) Voices of authority (VA) Business class (BC) Serious money (SM) Ultra High Net Worth Individuals (UHNWIs) (net worth > US$30 million, excluding primary residence)

20 Nomenclature of extreme wealth alpha territories Global power brokers (GPB) Voices of authority (VA) Business class (BC) Serious money (SM) Ultra High Net Worth Individuals (UHNWIs) (net worth > US$30 million, excluding primary residence) High Net Worth Individuals (HNWIs) ( > US$1 million investible assets)

21 Nomenclature of extreme wealth alpha territories Global power brokers (GPB) Voices of authority (VA) Business class (BC) 61% Serious money (SM) Ultra High Net Worth Individuals (UHNWIs) (net worth > US$30 million, excluding primary residence) High Net Worth Individuals (HNWIs) ( > US$1 million investible assets)

22 Nomenclature of extreme wealth alpha territories Global power brokers (GPB) Voices of authority (VA) Business class (BC) 61% Serious money (SM) Ultra High Net Worth Individuals (UHNWIs) (net worth > US$30 million, excluding primary residence) High Net Worth Individuals (HNWIs) ( > US$1 million investible assets) 70%

23 Rate of growth of UHNWIs in China greater than global average Beijing Shanghai

24 Rank City # of UHNWIs Where UHNWIs live, New York London Moscow Los Angeles Singapore Beijing Tokyo Chicago Zurich Seoul 1750

25 Housing habits of the super rich Residential property is roughly 30% of wealth Average 3.7 homes housing as such an incidental adornment of wealth that it is barely or never lived in (Atkinson, Burrows, & Rhodes, 2016) property is not just a place to live Urban Pay in cash

26 Loss of housing stock to short term rentals Airbnb San Francisco up to 40% of rentals taken off the market for short term rental Paris 20,000 to 40,000 listings

27 Loss of housing due to demolition & redevelopment

28 Loss of housing due to demolition & redevelopment

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31 Expensive v. expansive cities

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33 San Francisco

34 Tokyo

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36 Social housing in the 1 st arrondisement

37 (Photo: Getty Images)

38 Preservation of naturally occurring affordable housing

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40 Resources Thank you Global Cities Business Alliance (2016) Housing for inclusive cities: The economic impact of high housing costs. Hay & Beaverstock (2016) Handbook on wealth & the super rich. Knight Frank (2016) Wealth report. Knight Frank (2014) Wealth report. LaVecchia and Mitchell (2016) How rising commercial rents are threatening independent businesses, and what cities are doing about it. McKinsey Global Institute (2014) A blueprint for addressing the global affordable housing challenge. Webber & Burroughs (2015) Life in an alpha territory Urban Studies

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42 From, Knight Frank, Wealth Report, 2014.

43 Sao Paulo.