UC Berkeley IURD Working Paper Series

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1 UC Berkeley IURD Working Paper Series Title Regional Resilience in the Face of Foreclosures: Evidence from Six Metropolitan Areas Permalink Authors Todd Swanstrom Karen Chapple Dan Immergluck Publication Date escholarship.org Powered by the California Digital Library University of California

2 Working Paper MACARTHUR FOUNDATION RESEARCH NETWORK ON BUILDING RESILIENT REGIONS Regional Resilience in the Face of Foreclosures: Evidence from Six Metropolitan Areas Todd Swanstrom University of Missouri-St. Louis Karen Chapple University of California, Berkeley Dan Immergluck Georgia Institute of Technology May 27, 2009 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA

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4 Regional Resilience in the Face of Foreclosures: Evidence from Six Metropolitan Areas By Todd Swanstrom, University of Missouri-St. Louis Karen Chapple, University of California, Berkeley And Dan Immergluck, Georgia Institute of Technology A Report Prepared for the MacArthur Foundation s Building Resilient Regions Project Working Paper May 27, 2009

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6 Table of Contents Introduction...2 The Concept of Regional Resilience... 3 Resilience in Weak Market Regions: Cleveland and St. Louis...6 Resilience in Traditionally Strong Market Regions: The Inland Empire and the East Bay Resilience in Mixed-Market Regions: Chicago and Atlanta Conclusion: The Vertical and Horizontal Dimensions of Regional Resilience... 46

7 Every ten seconds, another American family loses their home. (Pico National Network 2008).

8 The Concept of Regional Resilience

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10 Figure 1. The Regional Resilience Model

11 Resilience in Weak Market Regions: Cleveland and St. Louis The Challenge Figure 2. Number of Foreclosures: Cuyahoga County and St. Louis County and City, Number of Foreclosures Year Cuyahoga County St. Louis County and City Source: For St. Louis data was provided by Will Winter, Public Policy Research Center, University of Missouri St. Louis; for Cleveland the data was provided by NEO CANDO at the Center on Urban Poverty and Community Development, Case Western Reserve University.

12 Figure 3. Foreclosure Heat Maps: Cuyahoga County, OH, 2000 and 2007 Source: NEO CANDO (http//neocando.case.edu/), Cuyahoga County Auditor; Prepared by the Center on Urban Poverty and Community Development, Mandel School of Applied Social Sciences, Case Western Reserve.

13 Figure 4. Foreclosure Heat Maps: St. Louis City and County, MO, 2003 and 2007 Source: Recorder of Deeds, St. Louis County and City of St. Louis; Prepared by the Public Policy Research Center, University of Missouri St. Louis. The Opportunity Space: State Laws

14 Opportunity Space: Institutions and Collaborations

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16 Figure 5. Housing Nonprofits in the St. Louis, MO-IL, Metropolitan Area, 2004 Source: Data from National Center for Charitable Statistics, mapped by the authors.

17 Figure 6. Housing Nonprofits in Cuyahoga County, OH, Source: Data from National Center for Charitable Statistics, mapped by the authors. Foreclosure Prevention in Cleveland

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20 Foreclosure Prevention in St. Louis

21 Neighborhood Recovery in Cleveland

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24 Neighborhood Recovery in St. Louis

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26 Resilience in Traditionally Strong Market Regions: The Inland Empire and the East Bay The Challenge Figure 7. Pre-foreclosure notices per owner-occupied unit, Riverside-San Bernardino and the East Bay Source:

27 Figure 8. Home values, , Case-Shiller Index

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29 The Opportunity Space: State Laws

30 The Opportunity Space: Institutions and Collaborations

31 Figure 9. Housing Nonprofits in the Inland Empire Source: Data from the National Center for Charitable Statistics, mapped by the authors. Figure 10. Housing nonprofits in the San Francisco Bay Area Source: Data from the National Center for Charitable Statistics, mapped by the authors

32 Foreclosure Prevention in Riverside-San Bernardino (the Inland Empire)

33 Foreclosure Prevention in the East Bay

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37 Neighborhood Recovery in the Inland Empire

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39 Neighborhood Recovery in the East Bay

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41 Resilience in Mixed-Market Regions: Chicago and Atlanta The Challenge Figure 11. Foreclosure Filings/Notices in the 13-County Atlanta Area vs. the 6-County Chicago Area, Source: Woodstock Institute (2008), Immergluck and Lee (2008).

42 Figure 12. Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metropolitan Areas

43 The Opportunity Space: State Laws

44 The Opportunity Space: institutions and Collaborations

45 Figure 13. Housing Nonprofits in the Chicago Metropolitan Area Source: Data from the National Center for Charitable Statistics, mapped by the authors.

46 Figure 14. Housing Nonprofits in the Atlanta Metropolitan Area Source: Data from the National Center for Charitable Statistics, mapped by the authors. Foreclosure Prevention in Chicago

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48 Foreclosure Prevention in Atlanta

49 Neighborhood Recovery in Chicago

50 Neighborhood Recovery in Atlanta

51 Conclusion: The Vertical and Horizontal Dimensions of Regional Resilience Figure 15: Newspaper Articles on Foreclosure in study regions, (by quarter) Source: Based on a LexisNexis count of every article that included the word foreclosure[s] ; data compiled by Joseph Winters, Jeremy Main, and Kate Sanders.

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55 Appendix A. Zip code maps of foreclosures in the six regions.* Figure 1. REOs by zip code in the Cleveland metropolitan region, Source: * Because foreclosure regulations and practices differ between states, the most consistent measure to compare across regions is the pre-foreclosure notice. However, this data was only available for Chicago, St. Louis, the Inland Empire, and the East Bay, so we use REO data for Atlanta and Cleveland. Likewise, we standardize by owner-occupied unit to create a consistent metric across regions. However, since a large share of foreclosed units are not owner-occupied, particularly in Atlanta, Cleveland, and Chicago, this measure will tend to overstate the extent of foreclosure in these areas (relative to that in high home-ownership areas like Riverside-San Bernardino).

56 Figure 2. Pre-foreclosures by zip code in the St. Louis metropolitan region, Source:

57 Figure 3. Pre-foreclosures by zip code in the Inland Empire, Source:

58 Figure 4. Pre-foreclosure notices by zip code, San Francisco Bay Area, Source:

59 Figure 5. Pre-foreclosures by zip code in the Chicago metropolitan region, Source:

60 Figure 6. REOs by zip code in the Atlanta metropolitan region, Source:

61 References

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64 Endnotes

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