City of San José. Produced by City of San José Department of Housing. Housing Market Update. First Quarter 2018

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1 City of San José Produced by City of San José Department of Housing Housing Market Update First Quarter 2018

2 Q San José Housing Market 812 residential permits issued - 83 were for affordable housing Accessory Dwelling Unit permits climbed significantly since 2016 Average rent growth was 4% Year-over-Year (YoY); vacancy rate was 5% 1 Average effective monthly rent for a 2-bedroom apartment was $2,626; Renters must earn $51/hour ($105,040/year) to afford this rent 2 Median single-family home price was $1,251,000, up 28% YoY; Residents must earn $122/hour ($253,500/year) to afford a home 3 Condos/Townhomes sold twice as fast as single-family homes 4 1. Costar April 9, Based on April 9, 2018 Costar average rents; income calculation assumes rents are 30% of income, 40-hour work week and a single income household. 3. Based on Santa Clara County Association of Realtors, March 2018 median prices; income calculation assumes monthly payments are 30% of income, 20% down, 4.4% interest rate, 1.25% property tax, 40-hour work week and a single income household. 4. Santa Clara County Association of Realtors, March

3 Q San José Residential Permit Activity 1000 Quarterly RHNA Goal is 997 total units permitted 24 Q Total Permits Units Permitted , Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Multifamily Affordable Multifamily Market Single family/second Units/Other RHNA Quarterly Goal SOURCE: City of San José Housing Department, March

4 2017 Second Unit Permits Up 140% YoY To Date Zoning code updated in December 2016 to conform with new State Legislation. SOURCE: City of San José Monthly Permit Reports as of April

5 Average Rent Up 4% Quarter-over-Quarter (QoQ) & YoY $3,800 $3,500 $3,200 $2,900 $2,600 $2,300 $2,000 $1,700 $1,400 $1,100 $800 SOURCE: Costar April 9, $3,257 $2,626 $2,376 $2,126 $1,858 1st Qtr st Qtr st Qtr st Qtr st Qtr st Qtr st Qtr st Qtr st Qtr st Qtr st Qtr st Qtr st Qtr st Qtr st Qtr st Qtr st Qtr-2017 Average Effective Market Rents for SJ 1st Qtr-2018 Studio 1Bdrm 2 Bdrm 3 Bdrm Average

6 Average Vacancy at 5% 11 Q Vacancy Rates Studio 5.3% 1 Bdrm 5.4% 2 Bdrm 4.9% 3 Bdrm 4.4% Average 5% st Qtr st Qtr st Qtr st Qtr st Qtr st Qtr st Qtr st Qtr st Qtr st Qtr st Qtr st Qtr st Qtr st Qtr st Qtr st Qtr st Qtr st Qtr-2018 Quarterly Vacancy Rate % for SJ Studio 1 Bdrm 2 Bdrm 3 Bdrm Average 5% Healthy Vacancy Rate National Rate 4% 3% SOURCE: Costar, April 9, 2018, National Rate US Census Bureau Current Population Survey/ Housing Vacancy Survey 4/26/18 6

7 Housing is Out of Reach for Many San José Workers SOURCE: Employment Development Department (EDD) First Quarter 2017 Wages; Costar April 9, Average Rents; Income to rent calculation assumes rent at 30% of income and a single income household; Santa Clara County Association of Realtors Q median prices; Income to mortgage calculations assume payments at 30% of income, 20% down, 4.44% interest, 1.25% Property Tax, $375 HOA dues for condos and a single-income household/ 7

8 San José s Renters Spend Higher % of Income on Rent 50% Median Rent as a % of Median Income 40% 30% 20% 10% 36% 29% 0% San Jose Metro United States SOURCE: Zillow Rental Affordability Index 2017 One Quarter Lag. 8

9 San José s Single-Family Median Home Price Keeps Climbing - Up 10% QoQ and 28%YoY Median Single Family Home Price ($) $1,390,000 $1,280,000 $1,170,000 $1,060,000 $950,000 $840,000 $730,000 $620,000 $1,454,500 $1,251,000 $510,000 $400,000 San José Santa Clara County SOURCE: Santa Clara County Association of Realtors, March

10 San José Metro Area Median Home Prices 10x Median Income - Nearly Triple the National Average 12.0 Ratio of Median Home Price to Median Income San Jose Metro United States SOURCE: Zillow Price to Income Index 2017 One Quarter Lag 10

11 San José s Mortgage to Income Ratio is 2.9x National Average 60% Mortgage Payments as a % of Median Income 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 46% 16% 0% SOURCE: Zillow Mortgage Affordability Index 2017 One Quarter Lag San Jose Metro United States 11

12 San Jose s Housing Affordability Remains Low Relative to the Nation (8 th least affordable) 1 in 6 families in San José can afford to own a median priced home % of Homes Affordable to Families Earning Median Income Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 San Jose, Sunnyvale, Santa Clara Metropolitan Area HOI National HOI SOURCE: National Association of Home Builders, Housing Opportunity Index Q

13 San José s Condo/Townhome Median Prices Up 11% QoQ and 20% YoY $895,350 $800,000 $765,000 $700,000 Median Townnhome Price ($) $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 San José Santa Clara County SOURCE: Santa Clara County Association of Realtors March

14 Single-Family Inventory Up 70% QoQ, Down 45% YoY; Sales Up 30% QoQ & 4% YoY Mar 05 Jul 05 Nov 05 Mar 06 Jul 06 Nov 06 Mar 07 Jul 07 Nov 07 Mar 08 Jul 08 Nov 08 Mar 09 Jul 09 Nov 09 Mar 10 Jul 10 Nov 10 Mar 11 Jul 11 Nov 11 Mar 12 Jul 12 Nov 12 Mar 13 Jul 13 Nov 13 Mar 14 Jul 14 Nov 14 Mar 15 Jul 15 Nov 15 Mar 16 Jul 16 Nov 16 Mar 17 Jul 17 Nov 17 Mar 18 San José Single-Family Data New Listings Total Listings Sales SOURCE: Santa Clara County Association of Realtors, March

15 Condos/Townhomes Selling Twice as Fast as Single-Family homes Days on Market in San Jose Days 9 Days 0 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Single Family Condo/Townhomes SOURCE: Santa Clara County Association of Realtors March

16 Interest Rates Continue Upward March 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% Interest Rate 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 4.33% 3.65% 2.00% 1.00% 1.51% 0.00% Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar Year Fixed Rate 5/1 Hybrid Adjustable Rate Federal Funds Rate SOURCE: Federal Reserve, Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, Q

17 Data Sources and Definitions The City of San José selected Costar to supply rental housing statistics as of July 1, The City s previous vendor, RealAnswers, went out of business in 2016 The City has restated rents and vacancy data beginning January 2000, using Costar. The revised data will be posted in the Housing Market Updates beginning in Q The source of the quarterly rents and vacancy data will be average, effective, marketrate apartment rents for the geography encompassing the City of San José, as reported in Costar s proprietary database Effective rent is the average rent paid over the term by a tenant adjusted downward for concessions paid for by the landlord (such as free rent, moving expenses, or other allowances), and upward for costs that are the responsibility of the tenant (such as operating expense pass throughs) The rents reported are average market rate rents charged by existing market-rate apartments; Costar updates rents data once a month for apartments with more than 30 units and once a quarter for apartments with less than 30 units For questions, please call the Housing Department at