CBER-LIED Report on Housing Market Conditions

Transcription

1 CBER-LIED Report on Housing Market Conditions CBER and Lied Institute Report Volume 62, 1st, Housing Markets Conditions in 1 st Beginning with this issue of the CBER-LIED Report on Housing Market Conditions, we will no longer include the boxplots for the distributions of house size in square feet, sales price, square foot price, and total mortgage value. Instead, we are including information that better represents the state residential real estate market. The new figures are the MLS-listed inventory and median list price of existing condominium and townhouse units, the percent of existing condominium and townhouse units sold by time on market, and inventory ratios and number of sales for both single-family residential and condominium and townhouse units. We will continue to publish the reports on both the CBER and Lied Institute websites. Stephen P. A. Brown, PhD Professor of Economics Director, Center for Business and Economic Research Nasser Daneshvary, PhD Professor of Economics Director, Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies Housing Units and Vacancies in the Greater Las Vegas Area, by Housing Type: Q1 Type of Housing Unit a Estimated Units in the Greater Las Vegas Area b Estimated Vacant Units in the Greater Las Vegas Area Vacancy Rate (%) MLS Listings in the Greater Las Vegas Area c Vacant MLS Listings c MLS Vacancy Rate (%) c Single-family detached 477,387 47, % 18,988 8, % Condominium 84,453 13, % 2,197 1, % Townhouse 39,838 4, % 1, % Apartment 169,331 22, % Total 771,009 87, % 22,565 10, % Note: We recently changed how the data are reported in the table. These figures represent a revision in the base data from 2010 to, and are not directly comparable to the data previously reported. Calculations of the estimated units and vacant units are based on meter counts from NV Energy. a Excludes mobile homes and multiplex units. b Unit counts provided by Clark County, Nevada Population Estimates. c Multiple Listing Service data provided by Residential Resources. Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 62, 1st, Page 1

2 Permits: A Future Market Indicator 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Permits Issued in Clark County by Type of Unit 1 1st, Total: 1,342 2nd, Total: 1,848 3rd, Total: 1,063 4th, Total: 1,103 1st, Total: 1,680 Commercial Units Multifamily Units Single-Family Units 862 1, ,079 1,200 Residential-Building Permits All Types of Unit Permits Issued by Issuing Authority 1 1, st, Total: 1,274 2nd, Total: 1,784 3rd, Total: 1,004 4th, Total: 1,059 1st, Total: 1,618 Res Building Permits 469 1, City of Las Vegas City of North Las Vegas Henderson Boulder City Mesquite Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 62, 1st, Page 2

3 Single-Family Housing Market: Details MLS-Listed Inventory and Median List Price of Existing Single-Family Residential Units 2 22,000 $130,500 21,500 21,000 20,500 $129,000 20,000 19,500 $127,500 19,000 18,500 18,000 October November December January February March Available units (left axis) 21,478 20,818 19,230 19,160 18,870 18,200 Median list price (right axis) $129,000 $128,800 $128,500 $129,000 $129,900 $130,000 $126,000 Percent Existing Single-Family Residential Units Sold by Time on Market 2 100% 90% 17.4% 19.5% 20.1% 20.9% 20.2% 20.5% 80% 70% 60% 8.4% 14.3% 8.5% 8.7% 9.3% 8.9% 8.4% 13.3% 12.8% 13.1% 13.7% 12.3% 50% 21.3% 20.0% 20.2% 19.9% 19.1% 19.2% 40% 30% 20% 38.6% 38.7% 38.1% 36.7% 38.0% 39.6% 10% 0% October November December January February March 0-30 days days days days 120+ days Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 62, 1st, Page 3

4 Single-Family Housing Market: Details Number of Single-Family Homes Sold, 1 st, Number of Sales Q Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 62, 1st, Page 4

5 Single-Family Housing/Condos & Townhouses Market: Details * Inventory Ratios and Number of Single-Family Residential Units Sold 2 ** October November December January February Absorption rate March No. of units sold 3,118 3,159 3,456 2,931 3,053 3,534 New listings to sales ,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Inventory Ratios and Number of Condominium & Townhouse Units Sold 2 ** October November December January February Absorption rate No. of units sold New listings to sales March 1,400 1,200 1, *All condominium and townhouse entities consist of 1-4 units. **Data are not seasonally adjusted. Note: The figures display a graphical presentation of the inventory movements. The absorption rate is calculated by dividing the number of listings at the end of the month by the number of units sold during the same month. The absorption rate can be interpreted as the number of months needed to deplete the inventory if no more units are listed and if the number of units sold stays the same. The new listings to sales ratio is calculated by dividing the number of new listings in a month by the number of units sold during the same month. Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 62, 1st, Page 5

6 Condominium & Townhouse Market: Details MLS-Listed Inventory and Median List Price of Existing Condo & Townhouse Units 2 4,700 $65,010 4,600 4,500 4,400 4,300 4,200 4,100 4,000 3,900 $64,990 $64,970 $64,950 $64,930 $64,910 $64,890 $64,870 3,800 October November December January February March Available units (left axis) 4,563 4,399 4,061 4,133 4,016 3,901 Median list price (right axis) $64,900 $65,000 $65,000 $65,000 $65,000 $65,000 $64,850 Percent Existing Condo & Townhouse Units Sold by Time on Market 2 100% 90% 15.9% 16.9% 16.4% 18.0% 19.3% 17.3% 80% 70% 7.6% 6.8% 7.3% 6.1% 13.8% 10.5% 12.6% 12.6% 6.7% 12.8% 5.0% 11.0% 60% 50% 22.7% 25.4% 20.8% 21.1% 20.6% 19.2% 40% 30% 20% 40.1% 40.5% 42.9% 42.3% 40.5% 47.4% 10% 0% October November December January February March 0-30 days days days days 120+ days Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 62, 1st, Page 6

7 Furnished Unfurnished Furnished Unfurnished Furnished Unfurnished Furnished Unfurnished Furnished Unfurnished Apartment Market Details Apartment Rental and Vacancy Rates by Zip Code Area 4 ZIP CODE UNIT RATES AVERAGE RATES UNITS Studio 1 Bed 2 Bed/1 Bath 2 Bed/2 Bath 3 Bed Rent Vacancy Total Units Vacant Units % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % METRO LV % * Number of observations insufficient for statistical purposes. Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 62, 1st, Page 7

8 Apartment Market Details Apartment Rental and Vacancy Rates by Zip Code Area Rent Q Data suppressed Vacancy Q1 Data suppressed Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 62, 1st, Page 8

9 Local Population and Unemployment Indicators Clark County Redeemed Drivers' Licenses 4 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, st, nd, rd, th, st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 1st, ly 11,919 11,842 14,604 12,783 14,257 14,645 16,450 13,882 16,057 Year-to-Date 11,919 23,761 38,365 51,148 14,257 28,902 45,352 59,234 16,057 Clark County Redeemed Drivers' Licenses: Major Categories 4 Unemployment 5 Las Vegas Q1 14.2% Q2 14.0% Q3 13.9% Q4 13.5% Q1 12.8% United States Q1 9.0% Q2 9.0% Q3 9.1% Q4 8.7% Q1 8.3% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1st, nd, rd, th, st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 1st, Percent from California 31.7% 32.1% 31.6% 30.0% 33.2% 31.5% 30.3% 30.3% 30.6% Percent Senior: Age 60 or Older 13.9% 14.5% 14.4% 15.5% 14.4% 14.3% 14.4% 14.4% 16.0% Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 62, 1st, Page 9

10 Housing Market: Regional Comparisons Case-Shiller Index in Selected Western Cities 6 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 1st, Las Vegas, NV Phoenix, AZ San Diego, CA Los Angeles, CA ly Change of Case-Shiller Index 6 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 1st, Las Vegas, NV -0.81% -1.98% -2.35% -3.96% -0.34% Phoenix, AZ -1.14% -0.69% -2.03% 0.53% 5.86% San Diego, CA -1.04% -1.54% -1.81% -0.78% 0.13% Los Angeles, CA -0.53% -0.42% -1.80% -2.50% -0.47% Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 62, 1st, Page 10

11 National Housing Market Conditions 7 Latest quarter Previous quarter Same quarter previous year % change from previous quarter % change from last year HOUSING PRODUCTION Permits Starts Under construction Completions Manufactured (mobile) home shipments HOUSING MARKETING New homes sold New homes for sale Month's supply of new homes Existing homes sold Existing homes for sale Month's supply of existing homes Median new home price Average new home price Constant house quality new home price Median existing home price Average existing home price Composite housing affordability index Fixed-rate housing affordability index Apartments completed Percentage of apartments rented in 3 months Median asking rent Manufactured (mobile) home placements Average manufactured (mobile) home sales price (in dollars) Builders housing market index Builders current sales activity Builders future sales expectations Builders prospective buyer traffic HOUSING FINANCE Conventional fixed-rate 30 year Conventional ARMs Conventional fixed-rate 15 year FHA applications received FHA total endorsements FHA purchase endorsements VA guaranties PMI certificates HOUSING INVESTMENT GDP (in billions of dollars) Residential Fixed Investment (in billions of dollars) RFI percent of GDP HOUSING INVENTORY All housing units Occupied units Owner occupied Rental vacancy rate Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 62, 1st, Page 11

12 Index: January 2000 = 100 Housing Market: Case-Shiller Home Price Index 250 Case-Shiller Home Price Index: January 1987 to April U.S. (10-City Composite) Las Vegas long-run 'equilibrium' trend based on Jan 1987 to Sep Las Vegas, NV 50 0 Source: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Sources: 1 Local building permit-issuing agencies. 2 Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors data based on MLS records, which do not necessarily account for newly constructed homes sold by local builders. 3 CBER/Lied Institute calculations using CoreLogic Real Estate Solutions RealQuest data base on new and existing recorded home sales. 4 Nevada Department of Motor Vehicles. 5 The Bureau of Labor Statistics. 6 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices: Home Price Index Levels - Seasonally Adjusted, April ( 7 U.S. Housing Market Conditions 1st, ( Note: As of the 1st, 2005 report, statistics in the Single-Family Housing-Market Details section have been revised to reflect only single-family housing. Copyright Report on Housing-Market Conditions Readers may reproduce the publication s items if they cite the publication name and date, and note the copyright of the Center for Business and Economic Research and Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies, University of Nevada, Las Vegas. Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 62, 1st, Page 12