SPRINGER-SCIENCE+BUSINESS MEDIA, B.V.

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1 P R O B A B I L I S T I C STRUCTURAL MECHANICS HANDBOOK

2 P R O B A B I L I S T IC STRUCTURAL MECHANICS HANDBOOK THEORY AND INDUSTRIAL APPLICATIONS EDITED BY C. (RAJ) S U N D A R A R A J A N, PH.D. CONSULTAN T HOUSTON, TEXAS SPRINGER-SCIENCE+BUSINESS MEDIA, B.V.

3 Cover design: Trudi Gershenov Copyright 1995 By Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht Originally published by Chapman & Hall in 1995 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1995 l(t)p The ITP logo is a trademark under license All rights reserved. No part of this book covered by the copyright hereon may be reproduced or used in any form or by any means-graphic, electronic, or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or information storage and retrieval systems-without the written permission of the publisher XXX Library of Congress Catloging-in-Publication Data Sundararajan, C. Probabilistic structural mechanics handbook/c. Sundararajan. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN ISBN (ebook) DOI / Structural stability-statistical methods. 2. Stuctural dynamics-statistical methods. 3. Probabilities. 1. Title. TA656.S dc CIP British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data available

4 CONTENTS Preface Contributors 1. Introduction 2. Stress-Strength Interference Method c. SUNDARARAJAN AND F. 1. WIlT 3. First-Order and Second-Order Reliability Methods A. HALDAR AND S. MAHADEV AN 4. Simulation-Based Reliability Methods B. M. AYYUB AND R. H. MCCUEN 5. Probabilistic Finite Element Method w. Ie. UU, T. BELYTSCHKO, AND Y. J. LUA 6. Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics D. O. HARRIS 7. Probabilistic Fatigue Analysis P. H. WIRSCHING 8. Probabilistic Analysis of Structural Systems F. MOSES 9. Probabilistic Structural Mechanics in System and Plant Risk Assessment c. SUNDARARAJAN AND T. V. VO viii ix 1 B BB v

5 vi Contents 10. Human Errors and Structural Reliability 211 R. E. MELCHERS 11. Nondestructive Examination Reliability 238 F. A. SIMONEN 12. Expert opinion in Probabilistic Structural Mechanics 261 c. SUNDARARAJAN 13. Fuzzy Sets in Probabilistic Structural Mechanics 280 F. c. HADIPRIONO 14. Neural Networks in Probabilistic Structural Mechanics 317 o. J. v. CHAPMAN AND A. D. CROSSLAND 15. Probability-Based Design Codes 331 A. S. NOVAK AND N. C. UND 16. Reliability-Based Optimum Structural Design 352 D. M. FRANGOPOL 17. Risk-Based Inspection and Main.tenance 388 T. v. VO AND K. R. BALKEY 18. Probability-Based Life Prediction 416 B. M. AYYUB AND G. J. WHITE 19. Seismic Risk Assessment 429 M. K. RA VINDRA 20. Extreme-Wind Risk Assessment 465 L. A. 1WISDALE AND P. J. VICKERY 21. Applications in Nuclear Power Plant Structures 510 w. s. LAPAY 22. Applications in Pressure Vessels and Piping 534 B. A. BISHOP AND D. O. HARRIS 23. Applications in Aircraft Structures 558 H. SMITH, JR. 24. Applications in Ship Structures 575 G. J. WHITE, B. M. AYYUB, E. NIKOLAIDIS AND o. F. HUGHES 25. Applications in Offshore Structures 608 R. SKJONG 26. Applications in Bridges 640 P. JOHNSON AND B. M. AYYUB

6 Contents vii 27. Applications in Steel Structures 650 P. MAREK 28. Applications in Concrete Structures 663 A. SCANLON 29. Applications in Timber Structures 684 w. M. BULLEIT 30. Applications in Ceramic Structures 707 w. MiiILER, R. RAMME, AND A. c. BORNHAUSER Index 737

7 PREFACE The need for a comprehensive book on probabilistic structural mechanics that brings together the many analytical and computational methods developed over the years and their applications in a wide spectrum of industries-from residential buildings to nuclear power plants, from bridges to pressure vessels, from steel structures to ceramic structures-became evident from the many discussions the editor had with practising engineers, researchers and professors. Because no single individual has the expertise to write a book with such a di.verse scope, a group of 39 authors from universities, research laboratories, and industries from six countries in three continents was invited to write 30 chapters covering the various aspects of probabilistic structural mechanics. The editor and the authors believe that this handbook will serve as a reference text to practicing engineers, teachers, students and researchers. It may also be used as a textbook for graduate-level courses in probabilistic structural mechanics. The editor wishes to thank the chapter authors for their contributions. This handbook would not have been a reality without their collaboration. viii

8 CONTRIBUTORS Professor Bilal M. Ayyub University of Maryland College Park, MD Mr. Kenneth R. Balkey Nuclear Technology Division Westinghouse Electric Corporation Pittsburgh, PA Professor Ted Belytschko Department of Mechanical Engineering Northwestern University Evanston, IL Mr. Bruce A. Bishop Nuclear Technology Division Westinghouse Electric Corporation Pittsburgh, PA Dr. A. C. Bornhauser Zentralabteilung Produktion und Logistik Siemens AG Berlin, Germany Professor W. M. Bulleit Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Michigan Technological University Houghton, MI Mr. O. J. V. Chapman Rolls-Royce and Associates Derby, England DE2 8BJ Dr. A. D. Crossland Rolls-Royce and Associates Derby, England DE2 8BJ Professor Dan M. Frangopol Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering University of Colorado at Boulder Boulder, CO Professor Fabian C. Hadipriono Ohio State University Columbus, OH Professor Achintya Haldar and Engineering Mechanics University of Arizona Tucson, ~ Dr. David O. Harris Engineering Mechanics Technology, Inc. San Jose, CA ix

9 x Contributors Professor Owen F. Hughes Department of Aerospace and Ocean Engineerin~ Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University Blacksburg, VA Professor P. Johnson University of Maryland College Park, MD Dr. William Stephen LaPay Nuclear Technology Division Westinghouse Electric Corporation Pittsburgh, PA Professor N. C. Lind Department of Mechanical Engineering University of Victoria Victoria, British Columbia V8W 3P6, Canada Professor W. K. Liu Department of Mechanical Engineering Northwestern University Evanston, IL Dr. Y. J. Lua Applied Research Associates, Inc. Raleigh, NC Professor S. Mahadevan Vanderbilt University Nashville, TN Professor Pavel Marek and Applied Mechanics San Jose State University San Jose, CA Professor Richard H. McCuen University of Maryland College Park, MD Professor Robert E. Melchers and Survt:ying The University of Newcastle Newcastle, N.S.W. 2308, Australia Professor Fred Moses University of Pittsburgh Pittsburgh, PA Dr. Wolfgang Muller Laboratory for Technical Mechanics University of Paderborn Paderborn, Germany Professor E. Nikolaidis Department of Aerospace & Ocean Engineering Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University Blacksburg, VA Professor A. S. Nowak Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Michigan Ann Arbor, MI Dr. R. Ramme Zentralabteilung Produktion und Logistik Siemens AG Berlin, Germany Dr. M. K. Ravindra EQE International, Inc. Irvine, CA Professor Andrew Scanlon Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Pennsylvania State University University Park, PA Dr. F. A. Simonen Pacific Northwest Laboratory* Richland, WA Dr. Rolf Skjong Det Norske Veritas Research N-1322 Hovik, Norway Pacific Northwest Laboratory is operated by Battelle Memorial Institute for the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC06-76RLO 1830.

10 Contributors xi Dr. Herb Smith, Jr. McDonnel Douglas Aerospace-East McDonnel Douglas Corporation St. Louis, MO Dr. C. Sundararajan Consultant Houston, TX Dr. Lawrence A. 1Wisdale Applied Research Associates, Inc. Raleigh, NC Dr. P. J. Vickery Applied Research Associates, Inc. Raleigh, NC Professor G. J. White Department of Naval Architecture, Ocean and Marine Engineering U.S. Naval Academy Annapolis, MD Professor Paul H. Wirsching Department of Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering University of Arizona Tucson,~ Mr. F. Joel Witt Consultant Greensburg, PA Dr. Truong V. Vo Pacific Northwest Laboratory* Richland, WA *Pacific Northwest Laboratory is operated by Battelle Memorial Institute for the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC06-76RLO 1830.

11 PROBABILISTIC STRUCTURAL MECHANICS HANDBOOK