Australian office vacancy decreased by 0.5% over the last six months to 9.1%
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- Warren Reeves
- 5 years ago
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2 Australian Vacancy: % 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Jan-90 Jul-90 Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Australian office vacancy decreased by 0.5% over the last six months to 9.1% 2
3 Australian CBD v Non-CBD Vacancy: % Australian CBD Australian Non-CBD 20% 15% 9.2% 10% 5% 0% Jan-90 Jul-90 Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul % Australian Non-CBD vacancy is now only marginally lower than that of the CBD 3
4 Net Australian CBD and Non-CBD Vacancy Attribution Six Months to July % 10% 9.8% 8.9% 0.7% 1.2% -0.9% -1.3% -0.4% 0.2% 9.2% 9.0% 8% 6% 4% 2% Australian CBD Australian Non-CBD 0% Vacancy January 2018 Office Supply Withdrawals Net Tenant Demand Vacancy July 2018 Australian CBD vacancy decreased due to withdrawals and positive demand, Australian Non-CBD vacancy increased due to negative demand 4
5 Australian CBD v Non-CBD Six Monthly Net Absorption: , ,000 Australian CBD Australian Non-CBD 300,000 sqm 200, , , ,000 Jul-90 Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 For the eighth consecutive period Australian CBD demand remained positive; Non-CBD demand returned to negative territory 5
6 CBD & Non-CBD Vacancy Rates July % 16% Australian Office Vacancy 12% 8% 4% 0% East Melbourne Parramatta Melbourne CBD Sydney CBD Macquarie Park Southbank North Sydney Chatswood St Kilda Road Crows Nest/St Leonards Adelaide Fringe Gold Coast Canberra Brisbane Fringe Brisbane CBD Adelaide CBD West Perth Perth CBD Four of the six markets with the highest vacancy are capital cities 6
7 Vacancy Change Six Months to July % 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% North Sydney Brisbane CBD Crows Nest/St Leonards Canberra Melbourne CBD West Perth Australian CBD Office Adelaide CBD Macquarie Park Australian Office Perth CBD Adelaide Fringe Chatswood Sydney CBD Australian Non-CBD Office Parramatta St Kilda Road East Melbourne Brisbane Fringe Gold Coast Southbank All the vacancy increases were recorded in Non-CBD markets 7
8 CBD Vacancy Change Six Months to July % 20% Jan-18 Jul % 19.4% 15% 13.2% 12.5% 16.1% 15.4% 14.6% 14.7% 10% 5% 4.5% 3.6% 4.8% 4.6% 0% Melbourne CBD Sydney CBD Canberra Brisbane CBD Adelaide CBD Perth CBD All capital markets tracked recorded a vacancy decrease over the period 8
9 Net CBD Demand Six Months to July ,000 60,000 Historical Average Jul-18 40,000 sqm 20, ,000-40,000 Melbourne CBD Brisbane CBD Adelaide CBD Sydney CBD Perth CBD Canberra Canberra was the only capital city to record negative net demand over the period 9
10 CBD Six Months to July 2018 Net Supply & Net Demand (% of stock) 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% Net Supply Rate Net Demand Rate -3% Melbourne CBD Brisbane CBD Adelaide CBD Perth CBD Sydney CBD Canberra Canberra and Brisbane CBD were the only capital cities to record negative net supply over the period 10
11 CBD Vacancy Rate Prime vs Secondary July % 25% Prime Secondary 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Sydney CBD Melbourne CBD Canberra Brisbane CBD Perth CBD Adelaide CBD Melbourne CBD was the only capital city to record higher vacancy in prime stock over secondary stock 11
12 Australian CBD v Non-CBD Sublease Vacancy: January 1990 to July % 2.5% Australian CBD Australian Non-CBD 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Jan-90 Jul-90 Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Australian Non-CBD sublease vacancy increased by 0.3% over the six months to July
13 CBD Sublease Vacancy Six Months to July ,000 Historical Average Jan-18 Jul-18 40,000 30,000 sqm 20,000 10,000 0 Adelaide CBD Sydney CBD Canberra Melbourne CBD Perth CBD Brisbane CBD Canberra and Brisbane CBD were the only capital cities to record sublease vacancies higher than their historical averages 13
14 Australian CBD Six Monthly Gross Supply: January 1990 to July , ,000 Supply Additions Projected Supply Historical Average 400,000 sqm 300, , ,000 0 Jan-90 Jul-90 Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 14
15 Future Supply of CBD markets ( ) 500, , ,000 sqm 200, ,000 0 Melbourne CBD Sydney CBD Canberra Brisbane CBD Perth CBD Adelaide CBD % of Current Stock 10.5% 3.2% 2.8% 2.4% 3.0% 2.1% Pre-Commitment 64.5% 55.1% 70.3% 0.0% 91.4% 75.0% Over the next two and a half years Melbourne CBD will supply over 450,000 sqm of new office space; equating to over 10% of current stock 15
16 Net Non-CBD Demand Six Months to July 2018 sqm 15,000 10,000 5, ,000-10,000-15,000 Historical Average Jul-18-20,000-25,000 Parramatta Macquarie Park St Kilda Road Crows Nest/St Leonards Adelaide Fringe Chatswood North Sydney West Perth East Melbourne Gold Coast Southbank Brisbane Fringe Two of the three worst performing markets in terms of net demand are in Queensland 16
17 Australian Non-CBD Six Monthly Gross Supply: January 1990 to July , ,000 Supply Additions Projection Historical Average 250, ,000 sqm 150, ,000 50,000 0 Jan-90 Jul-90 Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 17
18 Capital Cities Key Points Office Market Report July 2018
19 Sydney CBD Gross Demand (Tenant moves > 1,000sqm) Six months to July ,000 40,000 Positive Gross Demand Negative Gross Demand 20, ,000-40,000-60,000 Premium A Grade B Grade C Grade A flight to quality is evident with a significant amount of tenant movement into Premium Grade stock 19
20 Net Sydney CBD Vacancy Attribution - Six Months to July % 0.9% -0.9% 4.8% -0.2% 4.6% 4% 2% Addition to Vacancy Reduction to Vacancy 0% Vacancy January 2018 Additional Office Supply Withdrawals Tenant Demand Vacancy July
21 Melbourne CBD Vacancy by Grade July ,000 30,000 20,000 sqm 10, ,000 Premium A Grade B Grade C Grade D Grade Melbourne CBD demand was concentrated in the A and B Grade segments 21
22 Net Melbourne CBD Vacancy Attribution - Six Months to July % 6% 1.3% -0.7% -1.5% 4.5% 4% 3.6% 2% Addition to Vacancy Reduction to Vacancy 0% Vacancy January 2018 Additional Office Supply Withdrawals Tenant Demand Vacancy July
23 Brisbane CBD Net Absorption & Vacancy July 1990 to July % 18% 6mth Net Absorption (RHS) Vacancy (LHS) 80,000 60,000 16% 14% 40,000 12% 20,000 (%) 10% 0 sqm 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -20,000-40,000-60,000-80,000 Brisbane CBD recorded positive demand and a decrease in vacancy over the six months to July
24 Net Brisbane CBD Vacancy Attribution Six Months to July % 15% 16.1% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% 14.6% 10% Addition to Vacancy Reduction to Vacancy 5% 0% Vacancy January 2018 Additional Office Supply Withdrawals Tenant Demand Vacancy July
25 Canberra Vacancy By Grade Six Months to July % Historical Average Jan-18 Jul % 20% 19.1% 19.0% 18.6% 15% 11.0% 12.6% 11.7% 10% 8.8% 8.5% 8.0% 5.9% 5.7% 5% 0% A Grade B Grade C Grade D Grade The vacancy rate across all grades of stock in Canberra are well above historical averages 25
26 Net Canberra Vacancy Attribution - Six Months to July % 14% 12% 13.2% 0.7% -2.6% 1.2% 12.5% 10% 8% 6% Addition to Vacancy Reduction to Vacancy 4% 2% 0% Vacancy January 2018 Additional Office Supply Withdrawals Tenant Demand Vacancy July
27 Perth CBD Office Vacancy January 1990 to July % Historical Average 30% 25% 20% (%) 15% 10% 5% 0% Jan-90 Jul-90 Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Perth CBD vacancy has been declining since a peak in January
28 Net Perth CBD Vacancy Attribution - Six Months to July % 20% 19.8% 0.0% 0.0% -0.4% 19.4% 15% 10% Addition to Vacancy Reduction to Vacancy 5% 0% Vacancy January 2018 Additional Office Supply Withdrawals Tenant Demand Vacancy July
29 Adelaide CBD Vacancy January 1990 to July % Historical Average 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% Jan-90 Jul-90 Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 For the second consecutive period, Adelaide CBD vacancy decreased by 0.7% to 14.7% in July
30 Net Adelaide CBD Vacancy Attribution - Six Months to July % 15.4% 0.2% -0.2% -0.7% 14.7% 14% 12% 10% Addition to Vacancy Reduction to Vacancy 8% 6% Vacancy January 2018 Additional Office Supply Withdrawals Tenant Demand Vacancy July
31 Future Supply Office Market Report July 2018
32 Sydney CBD Six Monthly Gross Supply: ,000 Supply Additions Projection Historical Average 200, ,000 sqm 100,000 50,000 0 Jan-90 Jul-90 Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Major Projects 2018 Q4 151 Clarence Street (Barrack Place) 20,795 sqm 2019 Q3 60 Martin Place 38,600 sqm 2020 Q1 10 Carrington Street (Wynyard Place) 58,974 sqm 32
33 Melbourne CBD Six Monthly Gross Supply: , ,000 Supply Additions Projection Historical Average 200,000 sqm 150, ,000 50,000 0 Jan-90 Jul-90 Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Major Projects 2018 Q4 5 Collins Square 41,650 sqm 2020 Q1 311 Spencer Street (VIC Police) 65,000sqm 2020 Q1 130 Lonsdale Street (Wesley Place) 55,000 sqm 2020 Q1 477 Collins Street (The Olderfleet) 50,000 sqm 33
34 Brisbane CBD Six Monthly Gross Supply: , ,000 Supply Additions Projection Historical Average 120, ,000 sqm 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Jan-90 Jul-90 Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Major Project 2019 Q3 300 George Street 47,700 sqm 34
35 Canberra Six Monthly Gross Supply: ,000 Supply Additions Projection Historical Average 200, ,000 sqm 100,000 50,000 0 Jan-90 Jul-90 Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Major Projects 2019 Q4 Civic Quarter 15,000 sqm 2020 Q2 Dickson Motor Registry 13,000 sqm 2020 Q2 Constitution Place 12,000 sqm 2020 Q4 Block 35 Section 100 (ACT Govt) 24,000 sqm 35
36 Perth CBD Six Monthly Gross Supply: , ,000 Supply Additions Projection Historical Average 120, ,000 sqm 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Jan-90 Jul-90 Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Major Project 2018 Q4 98 Mounts Bay Road 48,484 sqm 36
37 Adelaide CBD Six Monthly Gross Supply: ,000 Supply Additions Projection Historical Average 50,000 40,000 sqm 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Jan-90 Jul-90 Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Major Project 2019 Q3 10 Franklin Street (GPO Tower) 24,500 sqm 37
38 John Nguyen National Research Manager National Ryan Farrow Senior Research Analyst Research Team Office Market Report July 2018 Catherine Chan Research Analyst Chamali De Alwis Information Analyst Alissa Baker Information Analyst Anna Brown Information Analyst Kye Beaven Information Analyst Disclaimer: While the material contained in this publication is based on information which the Property Council of Australia (including its Directors, officers, employees and agents) understands to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. This publication is general and does not take into account the particular circumstances or needs of any person who may read it. You should obtain independent advice from suitably qualified consultants and professionals before making any decisions in relation to the contents of this publication. The Property Council of Australia is not liable and accepts no responsibility for any claim, loss or damage of whatever nature suffered by any person or corporation who relies or seeks to rely on any information, advice or opinion contained in this publication, or otherwise given by the Property Council of Australia. Copyright: This publication is copyright. The Property Council of Australia is the copyright owner. Except as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth), no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or otherwise, without the permission of the copyright owner.
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