RP Data Housing market update. October 2014

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1 RP Data Housing market update October 2014

2 Residential real estate absolutely underpins Australia s wealth position Residential Real Estate $5.6 Trillion Australian Superannuation $1.5 Trillion $1.8 Trillion (SMSF $543.4 Billion) Australian Commercial Listed Real Stocks Estate $1.6 $0.7 Trillion Commercial Real Estate $0.7 $0.7 Trillion As at end of September Source: RP Data, ASX, SPAA, PCA

3 Capital gain: Home values up 9.3% over past year, however the annual rate of growth is losing some momentum Rolling annual and quarterly change in dwelling values, combined capital cities Median Prices $559,700 Capital Gain Dwelling s Past 12 months 9.4% 8.1% 9.3% $470,000 Annual over five years Annual over ten years 3.8% 3.7% 3.8% 4.8% 4.3% 4.7% 3 Source: RP Data

4 The vast majority of capital gain has been recorded across the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets 51.2% 46.0% 14.5% 10.9% 6.0% 1.6% 4 Source: RP Data

5 Regional NSW: values are now increasing across all regions of the state Statistical Division Qtr Annual 5 yr From peak Qtr Annual 5 yr From peak Sydney 4.4% 14.9% 6.3% 0.0% 2.7% 11.5% 5.4% 0.0% Hunter 1.9% 11.6% 5.5% 0.0% 1.3% 7.0% 3.1% 0.5% Illawarra 0.0% 9.1% 4.5% 0.9% 1.1% 8.7% 5.0% 0.0% Richmond Tweed 1.8% 3.1% 1.2% 2.3% 0.2% 3.0% 0.9% 8.1% Mid North Coast 2.3% 14.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.4% 1.1% 1.1% 2.0% Northern 0.2% 4.7% 5.0% 0.5% 0.2% 5.2% 5.0% 0.4% North Western 0.8% 6.1% 5.1% 1.6% 0.2% 6.5% 5.4% 1.6% Central West 0.6% 8.6% 5.5% 0.4% 1.0% 7.8% 5.7% 0.0% South Eastern 3.5% 16.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 1.0% 4.6% Murrumbidgee 3.0% 9.1% 4.1% 0.2% 3.0% 7.5% 3.5% 0.6% Murray 4.1% 9.1% 3.6% 0.7% 5.2% 13.4% 4.4% 0.0% Far West 1.2% 8.0% 6.5% 2.1% 1.2% 8.0% 6.5% 2.1% >= 10% 5% to 10% 0% to 5% 5% to 0% <= 5% 5

6 Sydney: housing market continues to show the highest capital gain trend across the capital cities Rolling annual change in Sydney dwelling values v. combined capitals benchmark 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% Combined capital cities Sydney Sep 98 Sep 00 Sep 02 Sep 04 Sep 06 Sep 08 Sep 10 Sep 12 Sep 14 Median Prices $750,000 Capital Gain Dwelling s Past 12 months 14.9% 11.5% 14.3% $575,000 Annual over five years Annual over ten years 6.3% 5.4% 6.2% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 6 Source: RP Data

7 A substantial pricing gap has opened up between Brisbane and the other largest capital city markets Pricing gap: Percentage difference between Brisbane / Sydney, Brisbane / Melbourne and Brisbane / Perth median house prices 18.2% 25.4%% 41.3% 7 Source: RP Data

8 Major regional markets are also showing strong conditions Gold Newcastle Coast Council region HOUSES Median price Num sales (year) Median price July 2014 $450,000 $515,000 2,699 7,235 Median price July 2013 $418,000 $485,000 2,548 5,850 Median price July 2009 $330,000 $481,000 2,575 6,417 Change over past year 7.7% 6.2% 23.7% 5.9% Change over 5 years 36.4% 7.1% 12.7% 4.8% UNITS Median price Num sales (year) Median price July 2014 $380,000 $355,000 9, Median price July 2013 $350,000 $345,000 7, Median price July 2009 $310,000 $360,000 8, Number of sales (rolling 3 month) Median house and unit price and number of sales over time 1,400 9,000 $500,000 $600,000 8,000 $450,000 1,200 7,000 $400,000 $500,000 1,000 6,000 $400,000 5, $300,000 $250,000 $300,000 4, ,000 $200,000 $200, $150,000 2,000 $100,000 1, $100,000 $50,000 0 $0 Jul 94 Jul 96 Jul 98 Jul 00 Jul 02 Jul 04 Jul 06 Jul 08 Jul 10 Jul 12 Jul 14 Median unit price (RHS) Number of sales (rolling 3 month) (LHS) Median house price (RHS) Median selling price Change over past year 8.6% 2.9% 29.4% 0.5% Change over 5 years 22.6% 1.4% 12.0% 8.5% Median discount Jul % 4.9% 2.1% 5.6% Jul % 6.2% 4.0% 7.2% Jul % 7.9% 5.1% 7.6% Median vendor discount improving 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 4.0% 6.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 8.0% worsening 10.0% 12.0% Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Median selling time Jul Jul Jul worsening improving Median days on market Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 8

9 Major regional markets are also showing strong conditions Gold Wollongong Coast Council region HOUSES Median price Num sales (year) Median price July 2014 $485,000 $515,000 2,504 7,235 Median price July 2013 $454,000 $485,000 2,422 5,850 Median price July 2009 $375,000 $481,000 2,262 6,417 Change over past year 6.8% 6.2% 23.7% 3.4% Change over 5 years 29.3% 7.1% 10.7% 12.7% UNITS Median price Num sales (year) Median price July 2014 $379,100 $355,000 1,586 9,648 Median price July 2013 $352,500 $345,000 1,305 7,455 Median price July 2009 $305,000 $360,000 1,298 8,618 Number of sales (rolling 3 month) Median house and unit price and number of sales over time 1,600 9,000 $600,000 1,400 8,000 1,200 7,000 $500,000 6,000 $400,000 1,000 5, $300,000 4, ,000 $200,000 2, , $100,000 0 $0 Jul 94 Jul 96 Jul 98 Jul 00 Jul 02 Jul 04 Jul 06 Jul 08 Jul 10 Jul 12 Jul 14 Median unit price (RHS) Number of sales (rolling 3 month) (LHS) Median house price (RHS) Median selling price Change over past year 7.5% 2.9% 21.5% 29.4% Change over 5 years 24.3% 1.4% 22.2% 12.0% Median discount Jul % 4.9% 2.3% 5.6% Jul % 6.2% 4.0% 7.2% Jul % 7.9% 4.5% 7.6% Median vendor discount improving 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 4.0% 6.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 8.0% worsening 10.0% 12.0% Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Median selling time Jul Jul Jul worsening improving Median days on market Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 9

10 Lifestyle markets are bouncing back Gold Byron Coast Council Council region region HOUSES Median price Num sales (year) Median price July 2014 $605,000 $515,000 7, Median price July 2013 $561,250 $485,000 5, Median price July 2009 $535,000 $481,000 6, Change over past year 7.8% 6.2% 10.7% 23.7% Change over 5 years 13.1% 7.1% 51.5% 12.7% UNITS Median price Num sales (year) Median price July 2014 $473,500 $355,000 9, Median price July 2013 $432,500 $345,000 7, Median price July 2009 $422,500 $360,000 8, Number of sales (rolling 3 month) Median house and unit price and number of sales over time 9, $700,000 $600,000 8, $600,000 $500,000 7, $500,000 6, $400,000 5, $400,000 $300,000 4, $300,000 3, $200,000 $200,000 2, , $100,000 0 $0 Jul 94 Jul 96 Jul 98 Jul 00 Jul 02 Jul 04 Jul 06 Jul 08 Jul 10 Jul 12 Jul 14 Median unit price (RHS) Number of sales (rolling 3 month) (LHS) Median house price (RHS) Median selling price Change over past year 9.5% 2.9% 30.0% 29.4% Change over 5 years 12.1% 1.4% 41.5% 12.0% Median discount Jul % 4.9% 3.8% 5.6% Jul % 6.2% 4.7% 7.2% Jul % 7.9% 6.6% 7.6% Median vendor discount improving 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 4.0% 6.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 8.0% 12.0% 10.0% worsening 14.0% 12.0% Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Median selling time Jul Jul Jul worsening improving Median days on market Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 10

11 Turnover: buyer demand appears to be levelling, but transaction numbers are 9.8% higher than a year ago Monthly house and unit sales, national 45,000 House sales (with 6 month moving avg) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Unit sales (with 6 month moving avg) 5,000 Jul 94 Jul 99 Jul 04 Jul 09 Jul 14 Annual Sales YoY % change in sales, states and territories Year to July 2014 Year to July 2013 % change 351, , % 140, , % Dwelling s 487, , % 11 Source: RP Data

12 Turnover: NSW, Vic and WA transactions are trending lower while Qld, SA and Tas gather pace NSW QLD WA VIC SA TAS 12

13 Effective housing supply is ramping up in line with Spring Number of advertised properties for sale, Sydney Capital city No of new 12 mth No of total 12 mth listings change (%) listings change (%) Sydney 8, % 20, % Melbourne 9, % 31, % Brisbane 4, % 18, % Adelaide 2, % 8, % Perth 4, % 17, % Hobart % 2, % Darwin % 1, % Canberra % 2, % Combined capitals 30, % 102, % 13

14 Vendor metrics: clearance rates sitting at around 70% Clearance rate Weighted average clearance rate and number of auctions, combined capitals 90.0% 4, % 3, % 3, % 2, % 40.0% 2, % 1, % 1, % % 0 Oct 09 Apr 10 Oct 10 Apr 11 Oct 11 Apr 12 Oct 12 Apr 13 Oct 13 Apr 14 Oct 14 Number of auctions Auction sales as a proportion of all sales 14 Source: RP Data

15 Vendor metrics: selling time and discounting rates have risen slightly Avg vendor discount, combined capitals 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% Aug 06 Aug 08 Aug 10 Aug 12 Aug 14 Avg time on market, combined capitals Aug 06 Aug 08 Aug 10 Aug 12 Aug Source: RP Data

16 Rental markets are relatively soft while values rise Annual change in dwelling rents and dwelling values, combined capital cities Gross rental yields, combined capital cities Annual change in rental rates Gross rental yields Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Hobart Darwin Canberra Combined capitals 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 16 Combined capitals Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Hobart Darwin Canberra 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% Source: RP Data

17 Rental yields are being compressed across every capital city as capital gains outpace weekly rents Annual change in dwelling rents and dwelling values Sydney Adelaide Darwin Melbourne Perth Canberra Brisbane Hobart 17 Source: RP Data

18 Mortgage demand: The number of owner occupier loans has been virtually flat over the past twelve months Annual growth in number of owner occupier housing finance commitments (ex refi) +16.1% +1.9% Monthly number of owner occupier housing finance commitments, Australia 18 Source: RP Data

19 Mortgage demand: Growth in housing finance demand has softened but remains high across the investor sector Annual change in value of housing finance commitments, owner occupier loans v investment loans +27.6% +10.3% 19 Source: RP Data

20 Investment properties are mostly concentrated in the inner city unit markets particularly in Sydney and Melbourne Sydney Sydney Melbourne Melbourne 20 Source: RP Data >50% 40 49% 30 39% 20 29% <20%

21 Housing demand: population growth starts to ease on lower overseas migration Quarterly change in national population 140, , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Mar 84 Mar 89 Mar 94 Mar 99 Mar 04 Mar 09 Mar 14 Net overseas migration Natural increase Annual change in population 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, ,000 Mar 84 Mar 94 Mar 04 Mar 14 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 Mar 84 Mar 94 Mar 04 Mar 14 AUST ACT NT TAS WA SA QLD VIC NSW 0.3% 0.9% 1.7% 1.4% 1.4% 1.6% 1.9% 1.6% 2.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 21 Source: RP Data, ABS

22 Overseas and interstate migration has weakened across Western Australia and Queensland NSW Vic Qld WA Natural Increase Net Overseas Migration Net Interstate Migration 22 Source: RP Data, ABS

23 About Us RP Data is a wholly owned subsidiary of CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled services provider. Regionally RP Data is part of CoreLogic Asia which is a leading property information, analytics and services provider in Australia and New Zealand with growing partnerships throughout Asia. With Australia s most comprehensive property databases, the company s combined data offering is derived from public, contributory and proprietary sources and includes over 500 million decision points spanning over three decades of collection, providing detailed coverage of property and other encumbrances such as tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. With over 11,000 customers and 120,000 end users, RP Data is the leading provider of property data, analytics and related services to consumers, investors, real estate, mortgage, finance, banking, insurance, developers, wealth management and government. RP Data delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and geo spatial services. Clients rely on RP Data to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. CoreLogic Asia employs over 500 people at nine locations across Australia and in New Zealand. For more information call or visit 23

24 In compiling this publication, RP Data has relied upon information supplied by a number of external sources. The publication is supplied on the basis that while the RP Data believes all the information in it is deemed reliable at the time of publication, it does not warrant its accuracy or completeness and to the full extent allowed by law excludes liability in contract, tort or otherwise, for any loss or damage sustained by subscribers, or by any other person or body corporate arising from or in connection with the supply or use of the whole or any part of the information in this publication through any cause whatsoever and limits any liability it may have to the amount paid to RP Data for the supply of such information. This data cannot be reproduced without the permission of RP Data. Queensland Data The State of Queensland (Department of Environment and Resource Management) Based on data provided with the permission of the Department of Natural Resources and Mines: [QVAS 2014)]. The Department of Environment and Resource Management makes no representations or warranties about accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability of the data for any particular purpose and disclaims all responsibility and all liability (including without limitation, liability in negligence) for all expenses, losses and damages (including indirect or consequential damage) and costs which might be incurred as a result of the data being inaccurate or incomplete in any way and for any reason. South Australian Data This information is based on data supplied by the South Australian Government and is published by permission. The South Australian Government does not accept any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the published information or suitability for any purpose of the published information or the underlying data. New South Wales Data Contains property sales information provided under licence from the Land and Property Information ( LPI ). RP Data is authorised as a Property Sales Information provider by the LPI. Victorian Data To the extent that this report has been developed using information owned by the State of Victoria, the State of Victoria owns the copyright in the Property Sales Data which constitutes the basis of this report and reproduction of that data in any way without the consent of the State of Victoria will constitute a breach of the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth). The State of Victoria does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report and any person using or relying upon such information does so on the basis that the State of Victoria accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any errors, faults, defects or omissions in the information supplied. Western Australian Data Based on information provided by and with the permission of the Western Australian Land Information Authority (2014) trading as Landgate. Australian Capital Territory Data The Territory Data is the property of the Australian Capital Territory. No part of it may in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, microcopying, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted without prior written permission. Enquiries should be directed to: Director, Customer Services ACT Planning and Land Authority GPO Box 1908 Canberra ACT Tasmanian Data This product incorporates data that is copyright owned by the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The data has been used in the product with the permission of the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The Crown in Right of Tasmania and its employees and agents: a) give no warranty regarding the data's accuracy, completeness, currency or suitability for any particular purpose; and b) do not accept liability howsoever arising, including but not limited to negligence for any loss resulting from the use of or reliance upon the data. Base data from the LIST State of Tasmania Veda credit demand disclaimer Purpose of Veda Indices releases: Veda Indices releases are intended as a contemporary contribution to data and commentary in relation to credit activity in the Australian economy. The information in this release does not constitute legal, accounting or other professional financial advice. The information may change and Veda does not guarantee its currency, accuracy or completeness, and you should rely on your own analysis and applications. Veda has relied on third party information in compiling the Indices and has not been able to independently verify the accuracy of that information. To the extent permitted by law, Veda specifically excludes all liability or responsibility for any loss or damage arising out of reliance on information in this release and the data in this report, including any consequential or indirect loss, loss of profit, loss of revenue or loss of business opportunity. 24

25 It s about tangible results for property professionals everyday. For further information about RP Data s products and services, please contact: Sonya Fisher, Director Government & Banking D M T E. 25

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