RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH A REVIEW OF KEY RESIDENTIAL INDICATORS ACROSS MAJOR AUSTRALIAN CITIES

Transcription

1 RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH A REVIEW OF KEY RESIDENTIAL INDICATORS ACROSS MAJOR AUSTRALIAN CITIES

2 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Economic growth was recorded at 3.1 growth in March Unemployment across Australia was 5.4 in the June 2018 quarter. The official cash rate target remained unchanged at 1.5 on 8 August In June 2018 housing finance annual growth fell 0.4. Annual growth for residential building approvals was up 3.6 in June Australian house values were down 1. in the year ending June 2018 (falling 1. in the last quarter) to $802,000. Apartment values were down 2.2 over the year ending June 2018 (falling 0.4 in the last quarter) to $554,500 (excl. Greater Darwin). In the year ending June 2018, the volume of house sales across Australia fell 8.1 to 317,907; whilst 96,094 apartment sales were recorded (falling by 14.2). rental yields for Australian houses were stable in Q averaging 4.2; whilst apartments were down 10 bps to average 4.3. Australian house rents rose 1.3 to $400 per week in the year ending June 2018; whilst apartment rents rose 5. to $420 per week. Australian cities remain some of the most liveable in the world according t o The Economist Intelligence Unit s Global Liveability Index in Four of Australia s capital cities ranked in the top 12 out the 140 cities. The index saw Melbourne rank the highest in Australia in 2nd place, performing 0.9 p oints better (at 98.4) than in 2017, despite being d isplaced by Vienna after seven consecut ive years in the top spot. Sydney moved up to 5th place, from 11th, with a score of Adelaide (10th place) and Perth (12th) saw their score remain the same, although this year many global cities have seen improvements in their ranking due to increas ing stability. Brisbane s score was slightly elevated at 94.3; ranking in 22nd p osition. For house and apartment price growth, Hobart continued to be the best performing capital city, followed by houses in Canberra and Adelaide. With an established risk-adverse lending environment, overall capital values fell this quarter in Australia. This was dominated by the cooling Sydney and Melbourne markets, following doub ledigit growth in recent years. Given b oth cities have strong economies and significant populat ion growth, it s likely by the end of 2019, most new stock will be absorbed and price growth will return. National Key Economic Indicators Annual & & Value Greater Cities, Gold Coast LGA & Australia (excl. Greater Darwin), as at 30 June MEL (50) SYD (64) AU (102) CAN (58) ADE (95) BNE (77) GC (82) PER (135) GC (100) MEL (77) ADE (121) PER (115) AU (101) SYD (66) HOB (37) HOB (53) BNE (124) DAR (137) CAN (86) -16 (X) AVE DAYS ON MARKET DAR (262) The weighted average total residential vacancy for Australian capital cities was last recorded at 2.6 in March 2018; down 30 bps over the year GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, ANNUAL GROWTH UNEMPLOYMENT RATE CASH RATE TARGET HOUSING FINANCE, ANNUAL GROWTH, BY VALUE (excl. refinancing) TOTAL BUILDING APPROVALS ANNUAL GROWTH (houses & apartments) Knight Frank Residential Research 2

3 AUSTRALIAN RESIDENTIAL REVIEW Q RESEARCH Population in Greater Sydney was estimated at 5.1 million persons in June 2017, growth of 2.. The currently set at 1.4 per annum Unemployment stood at 4.1 in Greater Sydney as at June 2018, trending 30 bps lower State Product in New South Wales (NSW) was recorded at $557,861 million in 2016/17; 2.9 greater than the prior year. The value of NSW housing finance commitments rose by 4.4 in the year ending June 2018; up from 2.8 recorded for the previous year. Greater Sydney growth decreased 4.5 for houses; falling 1.4 over the past quarter to a median valu e of $1,144,000. Apartment values fell 3.5 over the past year, decreasing 0.5 in the last quarter to a median of $737,000. The volume of sales tallied 44,818 houses (down 11.8) and 27,707 apartments (down 20.4) in the year ending June stood at 64 days in the June 2018 quarter. For apartments this was 66 days. A year earlier, this comparable period was recorded at 46 days and 54 days, respectively., Greater Sydney & Total Vacancy Greater Sydney VACANCY ending 12 August 2018 was 67.6 out of 798 scheduled auctions. This was higher than the week prior, at 51.9 from 462 scheduled auctions, but lower than the 71. (out of 782 auctions) were sold. ending June 2018 totalled 18,330 houses and 35,944 apartments in Greater Sydney. This was trending 1.7 higher for houses but 9.1 lower for apartment approvals compared to a year earlier rental yields remained steady at 3.1 for houses, but rose 10 bps to 3.9 for apartments over the June 2018 quarter. Rents remained steady for both houses and apartments over the year ending June Weekly median rents stood at $550 for both houses and apartments. -1 Total vacancy was 2.7 as at June 2018; recording 2.8 in the Inner Suburbs (0-10km from the CBD), 3. in the Middle Suburbs (10-25km) and 2.4 in the Outer Suburbs (25km+). Value Sydney Houses 1,144, , Sydney Apartments 737, ,

4 Population in Greater Melbourne was estimated at 4.8 million persons in June 2017, growth of 2.7. The currently set at 1.7 per annum Unemployment stood at 5.4 in Greater Melbourne as at June 2018, trending 60 bps lower State Product in Victoria was recorded at $399,009 million in 2016/17; 3.3 greater than the prior year. The value of Victorian housing finance commitments rose by 12.7 in the year ending June 2018; up 1.2 recorded for the previous year. ending June 2018 totalled 28,468 houses and 34,498 apartments in Greater Melbourne. This was trending 7.6 higher for houses and 20.2 higher for apartment approvals compared to a year earlier. Greater Melbourne growth increased 0.5 for houses; but fell 1.8 over the past quarter to a median valu e of $882,000. Apartment values rose 0.9 over the year, although fell 0.6 in the past quarter to a median of $496,000. The volume of sales tallied 57,547 houses (down 11.) and 19,686 apartments (down 16.) in the year ending June stood at 50 days in the June 2018 quarter. For apartments this was 77 days. A year earlier, this comparable period was recorded at 46 days and 85 days, respectively., Greater Melbourne & Total Vacancy Greater Melbourne VACANCY ending 12 August 2018 was 69.9 out of 955 scheduled auctions. This was higher than the week prior, at 57. from 629 scheduled auctions, but lower than the 72. (out of 948 auctions) were sold. rental yields remained steady at 3.1 for houses, but fell 20 bps to 4.3 for apartments over the June 2018 quarter. Rents for houses increased 2.4 and 2.5 for apartments over the year ending June Weekly median rents stood at $430 for houses and $410 for apartments. Total vacancy was 1.9 as at June 2018; recording 1.8 in the Inner Suburbs (0-10km from the CBD), 2.4 in the Middle Suburbs (10-25km) and 1.6 in the Outer Suburbs (25km+). Value Melbourne Houses 882, , Melbourne Apartments 496, ,

5 AUSTRALIAN RESIDENTIAL REVIEW Q RESEARCH Population in Greater Brisbane was estimated at 2.4 million persons in June 2017, growth of 2.. The currently set at 1.8 per annum Unemployment stood at 6.2 in Greater Brisbane as at June 2018, trending 40 bps lower State Product in Queensland was recorded at $308,709 million in 2016/17; 1.8 greater than the prior year. The value of Queensland housing finance commitments rose by 0.4 in the year ending June 2018; up from 3.9 recorded for the previous year. Greater Brisbane growth increased 2. for houses; although falling 0.1 over the past quarter to a median valu e of $566,500. Apartment values fell 6.4 over the year, decreasing 1.2 in the past quarter to a median of $379,000. The volume of sales tallied 32,469 houses (down 16.1) and 11,013 apartments (down 24.4) in the year ending June stood at 77 days in the June 2018 quarter. For apartments this was 124 days. A year earlier, this comparable period was recorded at a similar 73 days and 123 days, respectively. ending 12 August 2018 was 43.8 out of, Greater Brisbane & Total Vacancy Greater Brisbane VACANCY 103 scheduled auctions. This was higher than the week prior, at 36.1 from 115 scheduled auctions, and lower than the 54. (out of 156 auctions) were sold. ending June 2018 totalled 4,715 houses and 10,620 apartments in Greater Brisbane. This was trending 20.4 higher for houses but 15.5 lower for apartment approvals compared to a year earlier rental yields fell 10 bps to 4.6 for houses, and increased 20 bps to 5.1 for apartments over the June 2018 quarter. Rents remained steady for houses and apartments over the year ending June Weekly median rents stood at $400 for houses and $370 for apartments Total vacancy was 2.3 as at June 2018; recording 2.7 in the Inner Suburbs (0-5km from the CBD), 2.1 in the Middle Suburbs (5-20km) and 2. in the Outer Suburbs (20km+). Value Brisbane Houses 566, , Brisbane Apartments 379, ,

6 Population in Greater Perth was estimated at 2.1 million persons in June 2017, experiencing annual population growth of 1.. The population projection is currently set at 2.5 per annum Unemployment stood at 6. in Greater Perth as at June 2018, trending 40 bps higher State Product in Western Australia was recorded at $233,152 million in 2016/17; 2.7 lower than the prior year. The value of Western Australian housing finance commitments fell by 8.9 in the year ending June 2018; improving on the 10.2 recorded for the previous year. Greater Perth growth decreased 1. for houses falling 0.4 over the past quarter to a median valu e of $556,500. Over this year, apartment values increased 1.7, rising 3.4 in the past quarter to a median of $379,000. The volume of sales tallied 26,325 houses (down 7.6) and 3,309 apartments (down 6.) in the year ending June stood at 115 days in the June 2018 quarter. For apartments this was 135 days. A year earlier, this comparable period was recorded at 116 days and 143 days, respectively., Greater Perth 3 & Total Vacancy Greater Perth VACANCY ending 12 August 2018 was 39.1 out of 35 scheduled auctions. This was lower than the week prior, at 50. from 13 scheduled auctions, and lower than the 40. (out of 32 auctions) were sold. ending June 2018 totalled 11,075 houses and 4,738 apartments in Greater Perth. This was trending 10.7 lower for houses and 9.3 lower for apartment approvals compared to a year earlier rental yields were steady at 4.3 for houses, and up 10 bps to 4.6 for apartments over the June 2018 quarter. Rents decreased 2.8 for houses but remained steady for apartments over the year ending June Weekly med ian rents stood at $350 for houses and $300 for apartments. Total vacancy was 5. as at June 2018; down from 7.3 one year earlier. Value Perth Houses 556, , Perth Apartments 379, ,

7 AUSTRALIAN RESIDENTIAL REVIEW Q RESEARCH Population in the Gold Coast LGA was estimated at 576,900 persons in June 2017, growth of 2.4. The currently set at 2.2 per annum Gold Coast LGA growth increased 2.1 for houses; als o rising 0.8 over the past quarter to a median valu e of $625,000. Apartment values rose 1.7 over the year, also rising 0.7 in the past quarter to a median of $427,000. & Total Vacancy Gold Coast LGA Unemployment stood at 4.6 for the Gold Coast LGA as at 31 March 2018, trending 70 bps lower than recorded a year earlier. State Product in Queensland was recorded at $308,709 million in 2016/17; 1.8 greater than the prior year. The volume of sales tallied 9,569 houses (falling by 17.4) and 8,504 apartments (down 17.2) in the year ending June stood at 82 days in the June 2018 quarter. For apartments this was 100 days VACANCY The value of Queensland housing finance commitments rose by 0.4 in the year ending June 2018; up from 3.9 recorded for the previous year. ending July 2018 totalled 2,614 houses and 3,258 apartments in the Gold Coast LGA., Gold Coast LGA A year earlier, this comparable period was recorded at 77 days and 100 days, respectively. rental yields were down 10 bps to 4.8 for houses, but remained steady at 5.8 for apartments over the June 2018 quarter Rents increased 6.4 for houses and rose 4.9 for apartments over the year ending June Weekly median rents stood at $500 for houses and $430 for apartments. Total vacancy was 2. as at June 2018 up from 1.7 one year earlier. LGA Value Gold Coast Houses 625, , Gold Coast Apartments 427, ,

8 Population in Greater Adelaide was estimated at 1.3 million persons in June 2017, growth of 0.7. The currently set at 1. per annum Unemployment stood at 5.5 in Greater Adelaide as at June 2018, trending 110 bps lower State Product in South Australia was recorded at $101,791 million in 2016/17; 2.2 greater than the prior year. Greater Adelaide growth increased 3.1 for houses; although falling 0.5 over the past quarter to a median valu e of $535,000. Apartment values rose 0.9 over the year, but fell 1.9 in the past quarter to a median of $313,000. The volume of sales tallied 19,618 houses (up 1.2) and 4,209 apartments (up 10.5) in the year ending June stood at 95 days in the June 2018 quarter. For apartments this was 121 days. A year earlier, this comparable period was recorded at 93 days and 125 days, respectively. Greater Adelaide The value of South Australian housing finance commitments fell by 2.6 in the year ending June 2018; down from 3.3 recorded for the previous year. ending June 2018 totalled 6,808 houses and 4,271 apartments in Greater Adelaide. This was trending 10.2 higher for houses and 17.4 higher for apartment approvals compared to a year earlier., Greater Adelaide ending 12 August 2018 was 69. out of 88 scheduled auctions. This was slightly higher than the week prior, at 67.3 from 57 scheduled auctions, but lower than the comparable week a year earlier when 72.9 (out of 87 auctions) were sold. rental yields remained steady at 4.5 for houses, and 5.2 for apartments over the June 2018 quarter. Rents increased 4.2 for houses and rose 3.4 for apartments over the year ending June Weekly median rents stood at $375 for houses and $300 for apartments. Value Adelaide Houses 535, , Adelaide Apartments 313, ,

9 AUSTRALIAN RESIDENTIAL REVIEW Q RESEARCH Population in the Australian Territory (ACT) was estimated at 410,300 persons in June 2017, experiencing annual population growth of 1.7. The currently set at 1.6 per annum Unemployment stood at 3.2 in the ACT as at June 2018, trending 150 bps lower than recorded in June State Product in the ACT was recorded at $37,566 million in 2016/17; 4.6 greater than the prior year. Canberra growth increased 6.2 for houses; rising 3.2 over the past quarter to a median value of $750,000. Apartment values fell 2.1 over the year, falling 1.2 in the past quarter to a median of $415,500. The volume of sales tallied 5,319 houses (down 4.9) and 3,905 apartments (down 20.7) in the year ending June stood at 58 days in the June 2018 quarter. For apartments this was 86 days. A year earlier, this comparable period was recorded at 53 days and 98 days, respectively. & Total Vacancy Canberra VACANCY The value of ACT housing finance commitments rose by 11.4 in the year ending June 2018; up from 2.9 recorded for the previous year., Canberra 12 1 ending 12 August 2018 was 87. out of 56 scheduled auctions. This was higher than the week prior, at 62.8 from 46 scheduled auctions, and the same as the 87. (out of 57 auctions) were sold. ending June 2018 totalled 1,195 houses and 4,449 apartments in the ACT. This was trending 13.4 higher for houses and 0.5 lower for apartment approvals compared to a year earlier rental yields remained steady at 4.3 for houses, and 5.8 for apartments over the June 2018 quarter. Rents increased 10. for houses and rose 7.1 for apartments over the year ending June Weekly median rents stood at $550 for houses and $450 for apartments. Total vacancy was 0.5 as at March 2018; falling from 1.7 one year earlier. Value Canberra Houses 750, , Canberra Apartments 415, ,

10 Population in Greater Hobart was estimated at 226,900 persons in June 2017, growth of 1.1. The currently set at 0.6 per annum Unemployment stood at 5.6 in Greater Hobart as at June 2018, trending 40 bps higher State Product in Tasmania was recorded at $28,577 million in 2016/17; 1.1 greater than the prior year. The value of Tasmanian housing finance commitments rose by 8.1 in the year ending June 2018, this was down from 13.6 recorded for the previous year. ending June 2018 totalled 1,108 houses and 321 apartments in Greater Hobart. This was trending 37.6 higher for houses and 34.3 higher for apartment approvals compared to a year earlier. Greater Hobart growth increased 15.9 for houses; rising 4.2 over the past quarter to a median valu e of $461,500. Apartment values rose 22.6 over the year, and rose 6.1 in the past quarter, to a median of $370,000. The volume of sales tallied 3,934 houses (down 9.4) and 681 apartments (down 13.1) in the year ending June stood at 53 days in the June 2018 quarter. For apartments this was 37 days. A year earlier, this comparable period was recorded at 66 days and 75 days, respectively., Greater Hobart & Total Vacancy Greater Hobart VACANCY ending 12 August 2018 was 50. out of 5 scheduled auctions. This was higher than the week prior, with 0 from 2 scheduled auctions, and the same as the 50. (out of 5 auctions) were s old. rental yields remained steady at 5.1 for houses, but fell 60 bps to 4.9 for apartments over the June 2018 quarter. Rents increased 13.9 for houses and rose 12.5 for apartments over the year ending June Weekly median rents stood at $410 for houses and $360 for apartments. Total vacancy was 1.4 as at March 2018; falling from 2.3 one year earlier. Value Hobart Houses 461, , Hobart Apartments 370,

11 AUSTRALIAN RESIDENTIAL REVIEW Q RESEARCH Population in Greater Darwin was estimated at 146,600 persons in June 2017, growth of 0.5. The currently set at 1.2 per annum Unemployment stood at 4.3 in Greater Darwin as at June 2018, trending 120 bps higher State Product in the Northern Territory was recorded at $25,427 million in 2016/17; 4. greater than the prior year. The value of Northern Territory housing finance commitments fell by 8.1 in the year ending June 2018, improving from the recorded for the previous year. ending June 2018 totalled 473 houses and 52 apartments in Greater Darwin. This was trending 10.4 lower for houses and 62.9 lower for apartment approvals compared to a year earlier. Greater Darwin growth decreased 11.8 for houses; although rising 4.5 in the past quarter to a median value of $539,500. Apartment values fell 17.2 over the year, but increased 2.7 in the past quarter to a median of $326,000. The volume of sales tallied 677 houses (down 4.8) and 453 apartments (down 21.6) in the year ending June stood at 137 days in the June 2018 quarter. For apartments this was 262 days. A year earlier, this comparable period was recorded at 140 days and 265 days, respectively., Greater Darwin & Total Vacancy Greater Darwin VACANCY ending 12 August 2018 was 40. out of 10 scheduled auctions. This was higher than the week prior, at 17. (from 7 scheduled auctions) but lower than the 42. (out of 22 auctions) were sold. rental yields were down 10 bps to 5.0, for houses, and up 30 bps to 6.2, for apartments over the June 2018 quarter. Rents decreased 3.8 for houses but remained steady for apartments over the year ending June Weekly med ian rents stood at $500 for houses and $400 for apartments. Total vacancy was 6.5 as at March 2018; falling from 7.1 one year earlier. Value Darwin Houses 539, Darwin Apartments 326,

12 , Key Regional Local Government Areas, as at 30 June 2018 NOOSA, QLD (A) MACKAY, QLD (A) KIAMA, NSW (A) GREATER GEELONG, VIC (H) LAUNCESTON, TAS (H) KIAMA, NSW (H) NEWCASTLE, NSW (A) LAKE MACQUARIE, NSW (H) GREATER GEELONG, VIC (A) LAKE MACQUARIE, NSW (A) SUNSHINE COAST REGIONAL, QLD (H) NEWCASTLE, NSW (H) CAIRNS, QLD (A) SHELLHARBOUR, NSW (H) SUNSHINE COAST REGIONAL, QLD (A) WOLLONGONG, NSW (H) MACKAY, QLD (H) WOLLONGONG, NSW (A) WAGGA WAGGA, NSW (H) CAIRNS, QLD (H) TOWNSVILLE, QLD (H) ROCKHAMPTON, QLD (H) TOOWOOMBA, QLD (H) LAUNCESTON, TAS (A) ROCKHAMPTON, QLD (A) WAGGA WAGGA, NSW (A) TOOWOOMBA, QLD (A) GLADSTONE, QLD (H) (H) (A) RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH Michelle Ciesielski Director, Residential Research, Australia Michelle.Ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com Ben Burston Group Director, Research & Consulting Ben.Burston@au.knightfrank.com RESIDENTIAL SALES, PROJECT MARKETING & PROPERTY MANAGEMENT Sarah Harding Head of Residential, Australia Sarah.Harding@au.knightfrank.com RESIDENTIAL SITE SALES Paul Henley Head of Commercial, Australia Paul.Hen ley@au.knightfrank.com Tim Holtsbaum Director, Site Tim.Holtsbaum@au.knightfrank.com VALUATIONS & ADVISORY RESIDENTIAL Chris Hill Head of Residential Valuations, Australia Chris.Hill@au.knightfrank.com MEDIA ENQUIRIES Rebecca Sands Director, PR & Communications, Australia Rebecca.Sands@au.knightfrank.com Global Liveability Index is compiled by The Economist Intelligence Unit based on 140 cities around the world. The index is based on 30 factors spread across five areas: stability, infrastructure, education, health care and environment. bility Note: Unless stated, all references to dollars or $ refer to Australian dollars (AUD). Knight Frank Residential Research provides strategic advice, consultancy services and forecasting to a wide range of clients world wide including developers, investors, funding organisations, corporate institutions and the pub lic sector. All our clients recognise the need for expert independent advice customised to their specific needs. Australian Prime Residential Review 2018 Global Reside ntial Cities Index Q Global House Price Index Q Knight Frank Research Re ports are available at KnightFrank.com.au/R esearch The Wealth Re port 2018 Important Notice Knight Frank Australia Pty Ltd 2018 This report is published for general i nformation only and not to be relied upon in any way. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information, analysis, views and projections presented in this report, no responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by Knight Frank Australia Pty Ltd for any loss or damage resultant from any use of, reliance on or reference to the contents of this document. As a general report, this material does not necessarily represent the view of Knight Frank Australia Pty Ltd in relation to particular properties or projects. Reproduction of this report in whole or in part is not allowed without prior written approval of Knight Frank Australia Pty Ltd to the form and content within which it appears.