Dubai Market Report. Dubai Market Report

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2 Q FOREWORD Market Report CONTENTS Cavendish Maxwell is a highly respected independent firm of chartered surveyors and property consultants, focusing on property services throughout the Middle East and Africa. Established in 2008, Cavendish Maxwell is now one of the most influential property consultancies in the region. As a fully qualified member firm of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), and with extensive knowledge of the region, Cavendish Maxwell has the necessary experience, expertise and insight to deliver property advice of the highest standard. Our reports are used for loan security, audit, insurance reinstatement, dispute resolution, risk management, debt recovery, performance analysis, project financing, development strategy and government initiative implementation. We provide a comprehensive range of property services across all our departments, each of which is headed by highly skilled, experienced and fully qualified RICS chartered surveyors. Our various teams provide valuation, agency, advisory, management, capital investment, research and building consultancy services across all property types and sectors. Our Q report provides a summary of the residential market as well as a sector focus on the commercial property market. Price movement, rent and yield statistics, residential transactions and upcoming supply of residential properties are provided through Property Monitor, a real estate intelligence platform, powered by Cavendish Maxwell. The report also incorporates the Property Monitor Residential Survey, conducted among partner agents operating within. The survey showcases how new enquiries, leasing activity and transactions, among other metrics, changed over the previous quarter. It also provides an outlook on the following quarter and predictions by professionals, which are studied against real performance. 2 Q Market Report Cavendish Maxwell 2018 cavendishmaxwell.com 4 House Price Timeline 6 Price Performance 8 Rent Performance Upcoming Supply Map 12 Transferred Sales Overview 13 Property Monitor Residential Survey 14 Sector Focus - Industrial and Warehousing 18 Methodology Property Monitor 2018 propertymonitor.me 3

3 HOUSE PRICE TIMELINE In Q1 2018, villas/townhouses have traded at around AED 2.7 million and apartment transactions have averaged AED 1.2 million. Transacted prices for villas/townhouses have settled above the 2017 average during Q1 2018, which is mainly due to limited lower priced inventory entering the market this year compared to the launches in the first half of Meanwhile, trading prices for apartments continue to shift towards the lower end of the price band, averaging AED 1.2 million in Q The middle-income population (AED 15,000 to 25,000 per month income bracket) has been the key target segment for the majority of affordable housing apartment launches by developers in recent months. The majority of this new inventory offers smaller unit sizes to keep prices attractive, along with providing incentives, such as Land Department (DLD) fee waivers and payment plans with limited commitment (20-30%) during pre-construction period and extended post-handover payment options. 4.0M 3.5M 3.0M House Price Timeline Sales Price (AED) from the period January 2008 to March 2018 Average Sales Price Q AED 1.2 Million APARTMENTS AED 2.7 Million VILLAS/TOWNHOUSES 2.5M Average Sales Price AED 2.0M 1.5M M UAE real estate boom Lehman Brothers collapse Early sign of trouble Nakheel and DWC announcing plans for debt restructuring Rebound growth for the general market - oil prices above $100 Central Bank mortgage cap Russian currency crisis OPEC limits crude output Oil price peak at $145/barrel Oil price collapse at $32/barrel Bond issuance by the Central Bank Abu Dhabi s $10 billion loan to Expo 2020 announcement New market peak Oil Price collapse at $47/barrel Oil price deregulation Brexit Affordable housing arrived Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Note: House Price Timeline tracks residential property transactions from Land Department (off-plan and secondary) to derive monthly and quarterly average transacted prices for apartments and villas/townhouses. 4 Cavendish Maxwell 2018 cavendishmaxwell.com Property Monitor 2018 propertymonitor.me 5

4 PRICE PERFORMANCE According to the Property Monitor Index, apartment and villa/townhouse prices have registered 12 month declines of 2% on average. Price movement in the last 12 months has varied not only between communities but also among different buildings within the same community, thus reflecting greater differentiation in how available properties are now trading. This differentiation is expected to continue as buyers have an increasing supply base to choose from and property fundamentals such as developer track record, proximity to social and public infrastructure, ease of access, maintenance, among other factors will drive price movement. International City (Clusters) Discovery Gardens Village Circle IMPZ Uptown Motor City Silicon Oasis Al Furjan Sports City Village Triangle Lakes Towers The Greens Business Bay Marina The Views Beach Residence DIFC Palm Downtown Burj Khalifa -2.4 QoQ% change Q Q month % change Q Q Apartment Change in Price (%) % -1.0% -1.5% -2.0% -2.5% -3.0% -3.5% -4.0% Average Price per Sq ft (AED) Lakes Towers 1,204 Palm Jumierah Business Bay 2,175 sq ft Beach Residence 1,480 1,639 Marina Downtown Burj Khalifa The Greens 2,394 1,631 1,328 Discovery Garden DIFC 817 The Views 1,796 1,566 Al Furjan 904 Village Triangle 1,085 Uptown Motor City 848 IMPZ International City (Clusters) Sports City Silicon Oasis 957 Village Circle Villa/Townhouse Change in Price (%) -0.6 Al Furjan Villas QoQ% change Q Q Cedre Villas Silicon Oasis Village Triangle month % change Q Q Green Community Motor City -1.3 The Springs Park -1.6 Arabian Ranches -1.4 Victory Heights The Meadows The Lakes Golf Estates Islands Garden Homes Palm % -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% -2.0% -2.5% -3.0% -3.5% -4.0% Average Price per Sq ft (AED) Garden Homes Palm 2,653 Park 1,060 Islands 1,488 The Lakes 1,368 Al Furjan Villas The Meadows 837 1,334 Village Triangle 939 The Springs Green Community Motor City 978 1,035 Arabian Ranches 1,188 Cedre Villas Silicon Oasis 910 Golf Estates 1,203 Victory Heights * Average price per sq ft as of March ,195 6 Cavendish Maxwell 2018 cavendishmaxwell.com Property Monitor 2018 propertymonitor.me 7

5 RENT PERFORMANCE Rent declines for residential properties in have been more pronounced than sales price declines in Q DIFC AED 74,000 AED 102,835 Declines were more pronounced in Business Bay, Discovery Gardens, International City (Clusters), Golf Estates, The Springs and Al Furjan Villas averaging 12 month declines of more than 5%. Rent declines are expected to continue during the second quarter of 2018, with new handovers planned in both freehold and leasehold communities across. The pressure on housing allowances has also impacted rental market performance and the pool of tenants at the higher end of the spectrum continues to shrink. It has been a tenant-led market and the increasing stock levels each quarter have provided ample opportunities for negotiation on base rents as well as payment terms such as number of cheques. Declines will be more pronounced in areas with increasing supply and those located away from central business districts and public infrastructure. Additionally, building maintenance and quality remain significant drivers of occupancy levels, thus impacting net realised yields on investment properties. Business Bay -5.0 AED 176, Downtown Burj Khalifa AED 84,271 AED 111,337 AED 151,919 International City -5.0 AED 74,005 AED 85,000 AED 130,500 AED 32,046 AED 41,925 AED 56,880 Annual Rent by Bedroom Level * Data as of March 2018 Apartment Studio Rent Villa/Townhouse 3 BR Rent 1 BR Rent 4 BR Rent 2 BR Rent 5 BR Rent 12 month % change 12 month % change Beach Residence AED 134,078 Marina Discovery Garden AED 133,465 AED 99,704 AED 120,469 AED 72,024 AED 40,700 AED 55,000 AED 73, Lakes Towers AED 157,443 AED 197,600 Al Furjan Villas -6.4 AED 59,575 AED 79,000 AED 121,277 The Greens AED 182, The Views AED 277,201 AED 403,416 The Lakes AED 60,402 AED 81,893 AED 103,597 Island AED 271,544 AED 356,800 AED 184,608 AED 226, AED 240, Park AED 66,420 AED 92,370 AED 126,737 AED 182,358 AED 218,760 AED 274,804 The Meadows AED 156,840 AED 176,344 The Springs AED 249,600 AED 266,550 AED 314,520 Golf Estates -5.0 AED 191,400 AED 293,186 AED 45,848 AED 187,318 AED 71,437 AED 253,540 AED 116,188 AED 292,800 Arabian Ranches Sports City -3.2 Motor City -3.3 Victory Heights AED 55,300 AED 77,256 AED 114,480 Rental Cheques For Apartments and Villas/ Townhouses According to the Property Monitor s database of rental contracts, the majority of the rental agreements for residential properties in Q were in one cheque (50% of total), followed by 24% rent payments made through four cheques. The top areas where four cheques were prominent during Q include Mirdif, Emirates Living, Arabian Ranches, Village Triangle and Park. The trend has reversed since Q where the majority of rent contracts (43% of total) were four cheque payments. This is mainly because some tenants are negotiating larger discounts on base rents and agreeing to make one cheque payments instead of multiple payments. 8 Cavendish Maxwell 2018 cavendishmaxwell.com Property Monitor 2018 propertymonitor.me 9

6 Q Q Market Report 2018 UPCOMING Market Report Deira SUPPLY MAP Approximately 3,800 residential units have been handed over across in Q Mirdif 83% APARTMENTS 17% Downtown Burj Khalifa Business Bay VILLAS/TOWNHOUSES The majority of handovers during the first quarter of 2018 were in International City, Village Circle and Studio City, with more than 250 units being handed over in each location. More than 92% of the handed over units were apartments. For the remainder of the year, the majority of upcoming supply is concentrated in Business Bay, Village Circle and Town Square, all of which have more than 2,000 units scheduled for handover before the year end. Of the total scheduled handovers due for the remaining three quarters, approximately 46% of the upcoming supply is expected to be handed over during Q2. Increasing handovers will continue to impact rents in most locations across as tenants have more choice. This will also impact occupancies in existing stock and should be factored into net yield estimations for the forthcoming period. Meydan City PROPERTY MONITOR Palm Al Furjan ,000-1,500 1,500-2,000 2,000+ Al Barsha The Hills Supply scheduled to be completed by end of Mohammed bin Rashid City Al Sufouh Lakes Towers SUPPLY TRACKER International City Nad Al Sheba Marina The Lagoons 600-1,000 Land Science Park Village Circle Motor Village City Triangle Sports IMPZ City Golf Estates Silicon Oasis Arabian Ranches Damac Mudon Hills Town Reem Square Mira Akoya Oxygen Investments Park South 10 Cavendish Maxwell 2018 cavendishmaxwell.com Property Monitor 2018 propertymonitor.me 11

7 TRANSFERRED SALES OVERVIEW Off-plan transfers accounted for 61% of the total transfers in Q Transferred Sales Q ,698 APARTMENTS Business Bay, Mohammed Bin Rashid City and Village Circle dominated the off-plan transfers tally during the first quarter of the year. Meanwhile, traditional favourites including Marina and International City led the secondary market apartment transfers, along with Sports City, which accounted for 13% of the total apartment resale transfers during Q Secondary market transfers among villas/townhouses surpassed the off-plan transfers in this category in Q1 2018, led by Emirates Living and Arabian Ranches, which together accounted for more than 42% of the total villa/townhouse secondary market transfers registered during the first quarter. Top Five Locations for Apartment Transfers in Q Off-plan Transfers Secondary Market Transfers 622 VILLAS/TOWNHOUSES SURVEY RESULTS Predictions The majority of agents surveyed had predicted apartment and villa/ townhouse prices to decrease by up to 5% in Q The majority of agents had predicted that apartment and villa/ townhouse rents would decrease by up to 5% in Q The majority of agents had predicted new buyer enquiries, seller instructions and agreed sales would increase in Q Looking Back Q vs Reality Apartment and villa/townhouse prices have remained largely stable in Q with a 12 month decline of 2% on average. Apartment and villa/townhouse rents declined by 1% QoQ though 12 month decline is around 4% on average. According to data from real estate agencies, transaction levels for Q are higher than Q No. of Transfers No. of Transfers Q Price Outlook Apartments Percentage of agents who predict apartment prices will: 23.4% 4.3% 1.6% Looking Forward Q % Villas/Townhouses Percentage of agents who predict villa/ townhouse prices will: 23.9% 6.5% 0.5% 30.5% Q Transaction Outlook Percentage of agents who predict new buyer enquiries will: 35.4% 22.2% % Decrease Increase Remain the same 100 Business Bay Mohammed Bin Rashid City Village Circle Off-plan Transfers Al Furjan The Lagoons 100 Marina Sports City Top Five Locations for Villa/Townhouse Transfers in Q International City Lakes Towers Secondary Market Transfers Palm 44.0% 38.6% Increase by more than 5% Increase by up to 5% Not change Decrease by up to 5% Decrease by more than 5% and Residential Survey Q Rent Outlook Percentage of agents who predict new seller instructions will: 28.8% 15.7% Apartments Percentage of agents who predict apartment rents will: 4.3% 0% Villas/Townhouses Percentage of agents who predict villa/ townhouse rents will: 3.8% 0.5% 55.6% Decrease Increase Remain the same No. of Transfers No. of Transfers % 26.1% 21.7% 28.3% Percentage of agents who predict agreed sales will: 35.9% 25.3% 0 0 Mohammed Bin Rashid City Town Square Serena Reem (Mira) Villanova Emirates Living Arabian Ranches Town Square Reem (Mira) Village Circle 46.2% 45.7% Increase by more than 5% Increase by up to 5% Not change Decrease by up to 5% Decrease by more than 5% and Residential Survey 38.9% Decrease Increase Remain the same 12 Cavendish Maxwell 2018 cavendishmaxwell.com Property Monitor 2018 propertymonitor.me 13

8 SECTOR FOCUS INDUSTRIAL AND WAREHOUSING 2017 witnessed a continuation of trends from the previous 18 months with a difficult and competitive market place. Enquiry levels picked up as the year progressed and rallied strongly in the final quarter, after a quiet summer period. The vast majority of enquiries were for the small to mid-sized sector of the market with requirements for 50,000 sq ft or less accounting for 79% of demand*. There were also a number of significant occupier requirements above this level, including the big box market of more than 100,000 sq ft*. Many of these requirements have remained unsatisfied due to the lack of good quality stock available in the market, which has led to more occupiers exploring the Build to Suit (BTS) route, therefore delaying take up. There has been an increase in vacancy levels with many occupiers feeling financial pressure due to the current economic climate. Some businesses within certain industries, such as oil, gas and commodities, are now looking to rationalise their real estate holdings in a bid to reduce overheads and are therefore looking to either sell facilities which are considered excess to requirement or downsize operations. This is a trend which is even more apparent in the Free Zones where businesses are also facing increases in their land rents at rent review or lease renewal. In addition to this there are a number of speculative developers bringing new supply to the market leading to an unprecedented level of disposal instructions. The key driving forces in the market throughout were from the logistics and distribution sectors and the traders of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) and we expect this trend to continue throughout the course of This demand is not being met by the specification of existing warehouses, whereby occupiers in such industries prefer more modern European specification distribution warehouses which are not as readily available in the region. However we are seeing a shift in developers being more conscious towards the needs of the end users reflected in the new products they are bringing to the market in locations such as in Jebel Ali Free Zone and National Industries Park. Among the influential factors of 2017 affecting take up levels was the disparity between landlord/seller pricing expectations and what the market is willing to pay; often with asking prices 25-30% above market levels. We did witness deals concluding where landlords and sellers were able to realign expectations with the market which is encouraging. However, in still too many cases, there was little room for negotiation, with some landlords and sellers unwilling to change their pricing aspirations which have likely resulted in their properties continuing to sit vacant. When paired with increasing holding costs in the form of land rent and maintenance, this could be a costly and risky strategy. Occupiers remained cautious of the market since the drop in the oil price in 2014, however there was an improvement at the end of 2017 as oil prices recovered above the US $60 mark. Although there has been wider geopolitical instability from events such as the Brexit referendum, the uncertainty attached to a Trump Administration and more locally the break down in relations between Qatar and the rest of the GCC, occupiers are starting to factor in and account for external market forces within their decision making strategies similarly to more developed markets. 5% 75, ,000 8% 50,001-75,000 8% 100, % 25,001-50,000 ENQUIRY SIZE REQUIREMENTS (SQ FT) 16% 0-5,000 20% 5,001-10,000 21% 10,001-25,000 5% International Media Production Zone 2% Jebel Ali Industrial 6% Ras Al Khor 28% Al Quoz 1% South ENQUIRY LOCATION REQUIREMENTS *This excludes buildings which are incomplete and specialist units such as fitted cold stores. *The figures reported are exclusive of master authority sub-leasing fees which vary between 15-30% 38% Jebel Ali Free Zone 19% Industrial Park 2% Oil and Gas 6% Cold Strore 2% Commodities 6% Services 9% Food Production 9% Engineering 11% Other ENQUIRY SECTOR REQUIREMENTS 30% General Trading 16% Manufacture 9% L&D Source: Cavendish Maxwell Research MARKET CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES There is opportunity for developers/land owners to build European style warehouses especially in Non-Free Zone locations. Buyers/tenants are being more cautious and carrying out further due diligence on their available options prior to making real estate related decisions. This is prolonging the timeframe to conclude a transaction but is also characteristic of a more mature and stable market. There remains an imbalance between landlord/seller expectations and the market prices which is stalling the market. If landlords are willing to be flexible, it is likely they could attract and secure occupiers to their warehouses. The introduction of VAT which applies to the sale and lease transactions of commercial property, in addition to increasing regulations, will cause a period of readjustment in the market conditions. Some businesses within the oil, gas and commodities sectors struggle, often looking to rationalise real estate holdings in a bid to reduce operational costs. However, it is likely that the increase in oil price toward the US $70 a barrel mark will positively impact these sectors and encourage more activity and/or investment. Onerous ground lease terms and significant increases in ground rents, are pinching occupiers bottom lines at a time when there has been much contraction across a range of industries. Master industrial authorities should keep a watchful eye on such strategies to ensure they don t lose tenants. INDUSTRIAL INVESTMENT There has been an increase in requirements from investors looking for institutional grade assets with long term income. Prime yields now stand a little under 8.5% which is a high yield compared to European markets. New funds entering the market are both listed and non-listed, as well as increased activity from high net worth individuals. There is a misalignment in seller and buyers pricing aspirations. Yields sought by sellers are too low and not reflective of the market, either because of the poor quality of the underlying asset, lack of growth potential or security of income. Problems remain with land tenure; almost all warehouse and industrial land is leasehold. The biggest restraint restricting investment flow is short land leases and land lease rents. The rise in the underlying ground rents have resulted in investors seeking higher gross occupational rents, but with occupiers unable to pay these, it is often a case that transactions will not be financially viable. There are very few investment grade commercial options available to investors which might suggest why yields across asset sectors do not fluctuate significantly as one would expect. Occupiers with obsolete buildings, or those unwilling to sign long term occupational leases or with weaker balance sheets, can expect double digit yields. Given the weight of money chasing transactions, international or strong regional tenants who can sign long leases could potentially achieve yields of less than 8%. Going into 2018, prime yields are expected to remain stable with more opportunities for sale and leaseback deals as end users seek to free up liquidity which is otherwise tied up in real estate. 14 Cavendish Maxwell 2018 cavendishmaxwell.com Property Monitor 2018 propertymonitor.me 15

9 INDUSTRIAL PROPERTY SUPPLY (PER SQ FT) Jebel Ali Free Zone Investments Park Al Quoz National Industries Park Industrial Park Locations Jebel Ali Free Zone Investments Park Al Quoz National Industries Park Industrial Park ASKING SALE PRICES Source: Cavendish Maxwell Research Average price AED / sq ft 2018 MARKET OUTLOOK Whilst we expect transaction levels to remain below 2015 take up, strong enquiry levels since the start of 2018 suggest there will be a modest increase from Nevertheless, it is anticipated that occupiers will continue to carry out greater due diligence and analysis, which will impact decision making times and there will be a continuing differentiation in pricing expectations between sellers and buyers. There will continue to be many properties sitting stagnant on the market however if landlords and sellers are willing to adjust to the current market levels, then they should secure occupiers and buyers. We anticipate an increase in the level of occupiers looking to relocate to other emirates in a bid to reduce occupational costs incurred where they are more responsive to the challenges facing many businesses. However, the additional benefits of working within such as a better legislative and legal framework, more developed infrastructure, working in closer conjunction with suppliers and consumers and easier access to a greater labour force will continue to outweigh any occupational cost savings which may be achievable in other emirates (AED per sq ft) (AED per sq ft) (AED per sq ft) Source: Cavendish Maxwell Research Locations ASKING LEASE PRICES Jebel Ali Free Zone 27.5 Investments Park 33 Al Quoz 35 National Industries Park 30 Average price AED / sq ft Due to the low levels of good quality supply in the wellestablished areas such as Investments Park and Al Quoz, which have no development land remaining, it is likely that interest in the areas around Al Maktoum International Airport, such as South and Industrial Park will increase as occupiers are forced to look at alternative locations to find suitable properties. Prices in free zones are expected to decline as increased supply and high vacancy levels, coupled with rising land rents, continue to compress capital values. Nevertheless, with an increase in the oil price, Expo 2020, further capital investment in the expansion of Jebel Ali Port on the horizon and the overall maturing of the market, the general sentiment is more positive than it has been for the past couple of years. Industrial Park (AED per sq ft) (AED per sq ft) (AED per sq ft) Source: Cavendish Maxwell Research 16 Cavendish Maxwell 2018 cavendishmaxwell.com Property Monitor 2018 propertymonitor.me 17

10 METHODOLOGY PEOPLE Sale prices and rents are derived from Property Monitor ( me), a real estate intelligence platform established by Cavendish Maxwell in Property Monitor provides real-time, market-wide transactional data and trends. Working with governments, agencies, banks, developers and corporate investors, it provides deeper insight into real estate advisory, investment, and lending activities. The average sales price per sq ft is based on the Property Monitor Index which incorporates signed contracts, registered transactions, valuations and listings verified by Cavendish Maxwell s market leading valuation department. Property Monitor Residential Survey is a quarterly study of agent opinion designed to identify residential market sentiment. This research highlights how new enquiries, leasing activity and transactions, among other metrics, changed from quarter to quarter with agent predictions compared to actual real market performance. 40 BANKS Jay Grant MSc IRRV (Hons) Founder and Chairman E: jay.grant@cavendishmaxwell.com Nigel Armstrong FMAAT Chief Executive Officer E: nigel.armstrong@cavendishmaxwell.com Supply projections for residential projects are based on the Property Monitor Supply Tracker which tracks supply in real time, regular tracking of construction projects, new launches and delays. This is achieved through site inspections as well as regular feedback from developers, contractors, Cavendish Maxwell s building consultancy team and related government entities. Indices and average prices are produced using Property Monitor Index, which was introduced in January The data is drawn from various data sources. Some figures are recalibrated each month and the data is continuously updated from government entities, which may result in revisions to historical data. KEY SERVICES Market Research Due Diligence for Land Acquisition Highest and Best Use Studies Feasibility Studies Asset Management Property Data Buyer Profiling Advisory Services Our documents and advice meet banking and audit criteria, proven by our presence on over 40 bank panels across the Middle East. STRATEGIC CONSULTING AND RESEARCH By working with our strategic consulting team, our clients immediately gain access to our knowledge base, technical expertise and highly skilled individuals, making us the development partner of choice. Our rigorous analysis, research and unique access to Property Monitor allows our team to produce reports and advice with a refreshingly different vision leading to creative and effective strategies. We have advised on schemes with a gross development value of over AED 3 billion in the last year. Our reports are used internally for business planning purposes and to satisfy the criteria of external financiers and auditors. Our name is trusted by all major banks across the UAE, supported by our presence on over 40 bank panels across the region. Miles Phillips BSc (Hons) MRICS Senior Partner E: miles.phillips@cavendishmaxwell.com Manika Dhama BA (Hons), MBA Senior Consultant Strategic Consulting and Research E: manika.dhama@cavendishmaxwell.com Paul McCambridge Head of Sales Property Monitor E: paul.mccambridge@propertymonitor.ae Sofia Underabi MRICS AAPI Partner Head of Residential Valuation E: sofia.underabi@cavendishmaxwell.com Andrew Love MA (Hons) MRICS Partner Head of Investment and Commercial Agency E: andrew.love@cavendishmaxwell.com James Cresswell BA (Hons) MSc MRICS Partner Head of Commercial Valuation E: james.cresswell@cavendishmaxwell.com Joint Venture Structuring Site Analysis Education Advisory and Valuation 18 Cavendish Maxwell 2018 cavendishmaxwell.com Property Monitor 2018 propertymonitor.me 19

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