Land value uplift, valuation of streets and multisectoral

Transcription

1 Institute for Transport Studies FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT Land value uplift, valuation of streets and multisectoral projects Image Copyright Descry and licensed for reuse under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic (CC BY-SA 2.0) Valuing the Infrastructure of Cities, Regions and Nations Conference, 26th April 2017 Dr John Nellthorp (J.Nellthorp@its.leeds.ac.uk)

2 Street improvements: better design better maintenance & operation.

3 Context Local authority budget pressures and small state Move towards investment in infrastructure Regional devolution...

4 E.g. Northern Powerhouse / Transport for the North (TfN) area 16 million people, 290bn GVA, 7.2 million jobs: Greater Manchester (2.7 million) North East (2.3 million) Leeds City Region (3.0 million) Liverpool City Region (1.5 million) Sheffield City Region (1.8 million)

5 The North is as big as the Bay Area San Francisco Bay Area population, 7.6 million Businesses are looking for creative, skilled people, a place to do business, and excellent connectivity.

6 Sustainable growth? What could we be investing in to ensure economic growth which benefits all sections of our society?

7 Sustainable growth? What could we be investing in to ensure economic growth which benefits all sections of our society? skills the place we live in connectivity

8 The place we live in Streets and urban realm

9 The place we live in Neighbourhoods and local centres

10 The place we live in Homes and business premises

11 Connectivity Access to employment Effective commuter transport Walking and cycling infrastructure Connectivity across the North International connectivity

12 Research valuation of street design - DfT (2011) valuation of environmental quality and cleanliness of streets - Defra (2013) valuation of urban realm - TfL (2016) land value uplift - West Yorkshire Transport Research Innovation Fund (2016-7)

13 What is a good street? Citizens are willing to pay significant amounts of money to have streets designed differently: As now Option 1 Atkins and ITS (2011)

14 What is a good street? Valuation via Stated Preference (SP) analysis, or via Hedonic Pricing (HP) studies in the property market: Improvement Package of measures... of which: Pedestrianisation or pedestrian priority Ballpark value per resident user, per annum ~ 25 Materials/detailing ~ 10

15 What is a good street? Are citizens interested in paying extra tax for this? probably not in local government funding environment of 2017 (fieldwork was done in 2010) but indicates what citizens place value on and what choices they want made on their behalf.

16 What is a good street? Citizens are willing to pay for: green infrastructure clean and well-maintained streets.

17 What is a good street? E.g. innovative Stated Choice and Priority Ranking research in urban/suburban/semi-rural areas in England (for Defra, 2013): Improvement Value estimate Street cleansing * +1 point on a scale Street trees +1 point on a scale 160 per resident per annum 35 per resident per annum Street lighting +1 point on a 1..3 scale 90 (pollution); 60 (intrusion) * includes graffiti & fly-posting removal, dog fouling, litter, fly-tipping, odour, chewing gum.

18 What does this mean in terms of Benefit:Cost Ratio (BCR)? based on the Defra research above: Improvement Street cleansing * Value per resident per annum Cost per resident per annum BCR :1 Previous studies Street trees :1 Macpherson (2003): up to 24:1 Street lighting :1 Painter and Farrington (2001): >22:1

19 What does this mean in terms of Benefit:Cost Ratio (BCR)? Comparison: Davis report (DfT, 2014) on walking and cycling investments: including health benefits and external effects BCRs range from 1.3 to 12.7 average BCR Relatively small research field, but promising signs re. value for money.

20 Valuation of urban realm Putting all the above together. TfL is investing heavily in urban realm improvements - other regional authorities too. Exhibition Road, South Kensington, Cost: 29 million

21 Valuation - some key issues Perceived benefits and property market impact (land value uplift) look promising (as above). Full health benefits may not be perceived. Economic stimulus requires further investigation. Further research ongoing (TfL and WY TRIF).

22 Land Value Uplift Property market effects of improved connectivity (accessibility) are basically understood (if not reliably quantified). Typical pattern of uplift for rail and mass transit: Value premium RESIDENTIAL Value premium COMMERCIAL Value prem m Distance ~1,500m from node from new station 0 ~1,500m 0 from new node ~500m ~400mfrom ~500m new station from new node Distance Distance from to node transport node

23 Land Value Uplift Studies for TfL and WY TRIF found: scope to better understand and measure the value of connectivity and urban realm improvements through property market modelling; initial models found value premia related to place quality, beyond accessibility and neighbourhood effects; potential to forecast LVU as an input to value capture; regional and local authorities gain better understanding of value created - will businesses actually accept value capture? - calibrate new value capture better; issues around additionality to the transport benefits to be addressed.

24 Multi-sectoral projects Concluding observation: an over-arching problem here is the valuation of multisectoral projects: transport; urban realm; housing; business space; where to measure the benefits (in which market) is an issue... this is now another focus of research. Discussion / questions?

25 Additional slide

26 Additionality and displacement What happens to Land Values in one segment of the city if we improve accessibility (transport) in another segment of the city? +