Helping Homeowners Coming to terms with High Voltage Overhead Transmission. Peter Elliott

Transcription

1 Helping Homeowners Coming to terms with High Voltage Overhead Transmission Peter Elliott

2 Overview The problem The background Research model Results Impact on Property Value

3 The Problem

4 Background The antecedents of HVOTL provision The post placement impacts The effect on individuals The impact on communities The effect on homeowners

5 Theoretical Framework HVOTL as a technological hazard and risk Externalities Risk assessment Perceived or real threat Perceptions to the homeowner Real estate behaviour and impact on prices

6 The research question What causes variation in homeowner perceptions when suppliers propose new HVOTL infrastructure and what are the effects of suppliers actions on property values? If we can identify the causes of variation in their concern then the process of planning for the siting and development of HVOTL can be improved through policies to ease public anxiety about its provision.

7 5.7: Simplified modus operandi Simplified modus operandi Source: Powerlink public [See information sheets separate note re this figure] NEED IDENTIFICATION Source: Powerlink public information sheets Planning (Need for project NER Compliance) ROUTE SELECTION Study Corridor Selection and key stakeholder involvement Draft Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) and Public Consultation 5.7: Simplified modus operandi EIS finalised and released to the public [See separate note re this figure] PLANNING APPROVAL AND ROUTE ACQUISITION Notice of Intention to seek Designation Source: Powerlink public Public Comments Notice of Intention to Resume Resumption information sheets Ministerial consideration t Designation Development proceeds Claim for Compensation Agree compensation, Disagree and refer to Land Court

8 Research Model A theoretical model to understand the perceptual outcome which is seen to govern property valuation outcomes observable in the field

9 (4) Social Amplification and Trust (6) Attitude and Reaction (Dependent (Variable) (7) Real Estate Value Figure 1 A model of externality effects on homeowner risk perceptions, attitudes and property value (5) RISK PERCEPTIONS OF THE HOME OWNER STIMULUS EVENT News of proposal to site HVOTL adjacent to home owner (1) HVOTL EXTERNALITIES EMFs effect Visual/Noise effects Safety effects Effects on the Environment Effects on property rights (2) SITUATION VARIABLES Urban/Peri Urban/Rural Residential Homeowners and associated lifestyles/values (3) (Independent SOCIO variables) ECONOMIC VARIABLES Gender Age Occupation Knowledge of HVOTL World View (Independent variables) Concern about EMFs e.g. risk to health (yes/no) Concern about Visual/Noise effects e.g. risk to view and amenity of home (yes/no) Concern about environment e.g. risk of damage (yes/no) Concern for safety e.g. risk of injury(yes/no) Concern with property rights e.g. uncertainty about compensation(yes/no )

10 Overall Case Study Methodology Public telephone surveys Focus groups Quantitative studies of possible post placement impacts on property value

11 Map of Queensland Sub Regions within Brisbane Redlands Ayr North Lakes Re dla Charters Towers B4 B1 B3 Ipswich B2 Logan

12 Composition of Focus Groups Group number Number of Date Location of study Type of home site participants Brisbane Group /08/2008 Metropolitan north City lot Brisbane Group /08/2008 Metropolitan south City lot Brisbane Group /08/2008 Metropolitan east City lot Brisbane Group /08/2008 Metropolitan west City lot Northlakes 7 29/09/2008 Peri urban north Acreage Logan 8 18/09/2008 Peri urban south Acreage Redlands Ipswich 8 25/09/2008 Peri urban east 8 01/09/2008 Peri urban west Acreage Acreage Ayr 7 28/10/2008 Ayr,North Queensland Rural homestead Charters Towers 8 29/10/2008 Charters Towers, North Queensland Rural homestead

13 Power Line Towers

14 Focus Group Ranking Of Externalities

15 The Meaning of Home 0wnership Focus Group findings suggest causes of variation in the homeowner s attitude and concern for HVOTL externalities are likely to be related to the homeowners locale, fear of threats to health, level of trust in local and state agencies, need for security and a feeling of belongingness or place attachment. Not surprisingly, how the exchange value of the home is affected by these issues is a fundamental factor in determining the homeowners attitude towards HVOTL externality effects

16 Causes of Concern A significant cause in variation in the homeowner s attitude and concern for HVOTL externalities involves the process of social amplification and trust, especially relating to perceived health risks. The aesthetics of power lines reflect more than a dislike of the infrastructure itself and activate a process of risk perception determined by the interplay of cognitive, social and cultural factors. Also, the nature of the infrastructure and its topographical settings will in itself be a cause for varying concerns. Evidence suggested steel poles were preferred over the conventional tower structures

17 Telephone Survey Telephone numbers were taken from three stratified sets of postcodes from a computerised White Pages (residential directory for Queensland) to ensure that sufficient numbers in the urban, peri-urban and rural subsamples were obtained for purposes of comparison. Systematic random sampling was used, in that every n th telephone number was dialled, on a rotational basis, until the quota was achieved. The n th number was determined by dividing the telephone numbers available by the required quota. A demographically representative cross-section of the population normally falls into place by employing this method of telephone contact. Respondents were screened for home ownership status and then neighbourhood by asking whether where they lived could be described as: A built-up urban area, living close to neighbours Peri-urban acreage or semi-rural living A truly rural area, as in living on a farm

18 * p < 0.05; ** p < 0.01 Odds Ratio (OR) (95% CI) for Individual Variables Associated with Homeowners Risk Perceptions Variable EMF Concern Yes/No Visual/Noise Concern Yes/No Safety Concern Yes/No Concern for Environment Yes/No Concern for Property Rights Yes/No OR 95% CI OR 95% CI OR 95% CI OR 95% CI OR 95% CI Age (ref. aged 64 and over) 18 to 34 yrs 35 to 44 yrs 45 to 54 yrs 55 to 64 yrs ** ** ** ** ** ** Sex (ref. Female) ** ** Occupation (ref. not employed) Professional Nonprofessional Subregion (ref. rural) Urban Peri-urban ** * ** ** * ** ** ** * Knowledge (ref. understood HVOTL) World View (ref. hierarchical) ** ** ** ** ** Hosmer and Lemeshow Goodness of Fit Test χ 2 (8)=6.64, p=0.57-2ll= χ 2 (8)=8.88, p=0.35-2ll= χ 2 (8)=6.42, p=0.60-2ll= χ 2 (8)=4.06, p=0.85-2ll= χ 2 (8)=7.40, p=0.49-2ll=762.67

19 Homeowners and Professional Stakeholders showing Very High Concern for HVOTL Risks

20 Homeowners and Professional Perceptions of Impacts on Property Value Home Owner (Telephone Survey) Home Owner (Focus Groups)2 Property Valuer Real Estate Agent Developer 5 0 Wire & Tower 100M Wire 100M Wire & Tower 500M Wire 500M

21 Selected housing attributes and HVOTL externalities House location Altitude Latitude? Longitude House sale date 1 st Sales Date 2 nd Sales Data 3 rd Sales Date 4 th Sales Data House sale prices Number of Bedrooms 1 st Sales Price 2 nd Sales Price 3 rd Sales Price 4 th Sales Price Continuous Number of Toilets Number of Garage Continuous Continuous Land size Per sq metre Building Age Year of Built Proximity to HVOTL Visibility HVOTL variables Metre High Moderate Low Invisible

22 Selected property sample for visual assessment

23 Sold houses in Eight Mile Plains by distance buffers 2001 to 2010

24 Hedonic Regression Equation P(price of house) = f (housing characteristics, h1, h2,hk, HVOTL externalities e1, e2 ek, other factors r1, r2 rk).

25 Hedonic Regression to House Price with Visual Assessment as an Externality Effect. Unstandardized Coefficients Standardize d Coefficients t Sig. 95.0% Confidence Interval for B B Std. Error Beta Lower Bound Upper Bound (Constant) Beds Toilets Garages Area Year_Built Visual_Ass

26 LOT A Compensation assessment Source : Powerlink Advisory Brochure LOT B Landowner entitled to Compensation to compensation Landowner not entitled compensation