This Week. Supply and Demand. Price. Quartiles. ALISO VIEJO, CA Single Family Homes. Market Action Index. Price Trends. Characteristics per Quartile

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1 Monday January 13, 214 ARBOR Financial Group Executive Summary Single Family Homes This Week The median list price in this week is $79,45. The has been trending down lately, while inventory and days-on-market are climbing. The trends imply a weakening market. Real-Time Market Profile Trend Median List Price $ 79,45 Asking Price Per Square Foot $ 365 Average Days on Market (DOM) 83 Percent of Properties with Price Decrease 47 % Percent Relisted (reset DOM) 5% Percent Flip (price increased) 3% Median House Size (sq ft) 195 Median Lot Size 4,5 Median Number of Bedrooms 4. ±+ Median Number of Bathrooms Supply and Demand Market conditions have been consistently cooling in the past several weeks. Because we're still in the Seller's zone, prices have not yet begun to drop. It may take a few more weeks of slack demand for prices to reflect and begin to fall. Expect prices to fall if the index persistently falls to the Buyer's zone. ±+ No change 2. Seller's Advantage 38.7 Strong upward trend Strong downward trend = Slight upward trend Slight downward trend Price This week saw relatively little price change from last week. However, prices continue to demonstrate a nice up trend over the last several weeks. Price Trends 7-Day Rolling Average 9-Day Rolling Average Buyer/Seller Cutoff The answers the question "How's the Market?" by measuring the current rate of sale versus the amount of the inventory. Index above 3 implies Seller's Market conditions. Below 3, conditions favor the buyer. Quartiles 7-Day Rolling Average Characteristics per Quartile Quartile Median Price Sq. Ft. Top/First $ 1,75, Upper/Second 9-Day Rolling Average Investigate the market in quartiles where each quartile is 25% of homes ordered by price. Lot Size Beds Baths Age Inventory New Absorbed DOM 32 4,51 6,5 sqft Most expensive 25% of properties $ 839, 23 4,51 6,5 sqft Upper-middle 25% of properties Lower/Third $ 644, ,5 sqft Lower-middle 25% of properties Bottom/Fourth $ 394, ,5 sqft Least expensive 25% of properties Powered by Altos Research LLC Copyright Altos Research LLC

2 ARBOR Financial Group MARKET UPDATE Current Real Estate Market Conditions for Single Family Homes Trends in Pricing Current Levels of Supply and Demand Value Metrics Report for the week of January 13, 214 Presented by ARBOR Financial Group ARBOR Financial Group Powered by Altos Research LLC Copyright Altos Research LLC

3 This Week Real-Time Market Profile Trend The median list price in ALISO VIEJO, CA this week is $79,45. The 38 properties have been on the market for an average of 83 days. The has been trending down lately, while inventory and days-on-market are climbing. The trends imply a weakening market. Supply and Demand Market conditions have been consistently cooling in the past several weeks. Because we're still in the Seller's zone, prices have not yet begun to drop. It may take a few more weeks of slack demand for prices to reflect and begin to fall. Expect prices to fall if the index persistently falls to the Buyer's zone. Median List Price Average List Price Asking Price Per Square Foot Average Days on Market (DoM) Inventory of Properties Listed Most Expensive Listing Least Expensive Listing Average Age of Listing Percent of Properties with Price Decrease Percent Relisted (reset DOM) Percent Flip (price increased) Median House Size (sq ft) Median Lot Size Median Number of Bedrooms Median Number of Bathrooms Altos Research Value Statistics Seller's Advantage $ 79,45 $ % 5 % 3 % 195 4,5 sqft The answers the question "How's the Market?" by measuring the current rate of sale versus the amount of the inventory. Index above 3 implies a seller's advantage. Below 3, conditions give the advantage to the buyer. Trend Key: ±+ No change $ 745,926 ±+ Strong upward trend Strong downward trend = Slight upward trend Slight downward trend 38 $ 1,349,99 $ 339,9 2 Characteristics per Quartile Quartile Median Price Sq. Ft. Lot Size Beds Baths Age Inventory New Absorbed DOM Top/First $ 1,75, 32 4,51-6,5 sqft Most expensive 25% of properties Upper/Second $ 839, 23 4,51-6,5 sqft Upper-middle 25% of properties Lower/Third $ 644, ,5 sqft Lower-middle 25% of properties Bottom/Fourth $ 394, ,5 sqft Least expensive 25% of properties Page 2 of 6 Monday January 13, 214

4 Median Price The market seems to have paused around its high point. Though this week prices eased down a bit. The is a good leading indicator for the durability of this shift. 9-day Average Quartile Prices Not surprisingly, given the condition of the overall market, all quartiles have shown price strength in recent weeks. All have been increasing in price lately. First/Top Second/Upper Third/Lower Fourth/Bottom Page 3 of 6 Monday January 13, 214

5 Price per Square Foot The market plateau is seen across the price and value. The price per square foot and median list price have both been reasonably stagnant. Watch the for persistent changes as a leading indicator before the market moves from these levels. 9-day Average Inventory of Properties Listed for Sale Inventory has been climbing lately. Note that rising inventory alone does not signal a weakening market. Look to the Market Action Index and Days on Market trends to gauge whether buyer interest is keeping up with available supply. 9-day Average Page 4 of 6 Monday January 13, 214

6 The ALISO VIEJO market is currently in the Seller's Advantage zone (greater than 3). The 9-day stands at which indicates that demand is strong and available supply of homes gets snapped up relatively quickly. 9-day Average Buyers/Sellers Cutoff per Quartile Not surprisingly, all segments in the market are showing high levels of demand. Watch the quartiles for changes before the whole market changes. Often one end of the market (e.g. the high-end) will weaken before the rest of the market and signal a slowdown for the whole group. First/Top Second/Upper Third/Lower Fourth/Bottom Buyers/Sellers Cutoff Residential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can be characterized by analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the index falls into the Buyer s Advantage zone (below 3) for a long period, prices are likely in for a downward correction. Page 5 of 6 Monday January 13, 214

7 Days on Market The properties have been on the market for an average of 83 days. Half of the listings have come newly on the market in the past 7 or so days. 9-day Average Days on Market per Quartile It is not uncommon for the higher priced homes in an area to take longer to sell than those in the lower quartiles. First/Top Second/Upper Third/Lower Fourth/Bottom Page 6 of 6 Monday January 13, 214