North Dakota Communities Acutely Impacted by Oil and Gas Development: Housing Demand Analysis

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1 North Dakota Communities Acutely Impacted by Oil and Gas Development: Housing Demand Analysis

2 New Town Stanley, ND

3 Divide Burke Williams Mountrail McKenzie Dunn Billings Stark

4 Bakken/Three Forks Population Forecast Based on Total Wells The three scenarios in the studies are based on an additional 14,000 (pessimistic), 21,000 (expected) or 28,000 (optimistic) pattern wells in the footprint at 2030 above the 7,000 wells to be drilled to secure leaseholds The reports focus on the expected forecast Permanent population includes permanent drilling related and production related primary, secondary, and induced workers then converted to households

5 Approximately 6,250 transient workers are expected before the end of drilling

6 New housing units needed to meet demand About 8,900 additional housing units will be needed across the footprint for the projected 2030 population 8,428 new single family units 1,759 multi family units 1,209 fewer mobile homes The mix of housing tenure and type will fluctuate as the play progresses but should normalize

7 Williston Population and Housing Units 25,000 23,588 20,000 19,601 21,747 20,908 15,000 10,000 5,000 16,223 7,388 9,075 10,150 11,070 9,729 Population Housing Units The number of housing units is based on an estimated household size of 2.19 in 2010, 2.16 in 2015, 2.14 in 2020, 2.13 in 2025 and 2.15 in 2030

8 Housing development affordability Conventional costs are affordable for those at or above median Those below median struggle Those below median but who don t qualify for rental assistance are under extreme pressure Essential service and Main Street workers pay is well below oilfield workers

9 Stanley Income Levels Under Pressure $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $55,000 $44,000 $58,380 $46,704 $61,968 $49, $65,776 $52, $69,819 $55, Indexed Poverty Level Indexed Median $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $23,993 $19, $11,925 $13,696 $14,538 $15,431 $16,379 $17,386 Low Income (80% of Median) $ An annual income of $54, would be needed to afford rent of a multi family unit developed using conventional financing with a 15 year payback, based on the model of new construction included in the study reports

10 Six Communities at Certain Income Levels 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 6, % 5,755 6, % 45.00% 42.22% 40.76% 5, % 40.00% 4, % 35.00% 3,845 4,022 4, % 30.00% 28.21% 3, % 3, % 25.00% 22.62% 20.00% 15.00% 1,197 1,346 1,367 1, % 9.88% 1, % 10.00% 8.09% 7.20% 5.00% Households Below Poverty Level Households Below $30,000 Households Below $45,000 Percent Below Poverty Level Percent Below $30,000 Percent Below $45, %

11 Median age is expected to drop Little to modest need for additional market rate housing for seniors School age populations are expected to grow significantly New Town 40 percent Parshall 37 percent Tioga 75 percent Stanley 80 percent Watford City 56 percent Williston 50 percent

12 Survey of Developers and Builders North Dakota Housing Study Purpose Identify risks, obstacles and challenges Seek input and ideas Determine how to address challenges 8 developers surveyed

13 Survey of Developers and Builders North Dakota Housing Study Commonly mentioned risk factors Downturn in oil activity Price reduction of oil EPA regulations that would curtail activity Some factor to stop or slow oil exploration or production growth High cost of land Infrastructure costs Labor cost Land availability Fear of overbuilding Long term sustainability of rent

14 Survey of Developers and Builders North Dakota Housing Study Obstacles Lack of housing for own workforce Lack of infrastructure Lack of workforce Appraisal gap Lack of available land

15 Survey of Developers and Builders North Dakota Housing Study Possible solutions Cities need to be proactive in dealing with trunk infrastructure Property tax reduction for lowincome housing projects

16 For the full reports, please visit