Paragraph 47 National Planning Policy Framework. rpsgroup.com/uk

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2 To boost significantly the supply of housing, local planning authorities should use their evidence base to ensure that their Local Plan meets the full, objectively assessed needs for market and affordable housing in the housing market area Paragraph 47 National Planning Policy Framework

RPS Futures RPS Futures is a model developed by RPS to establish the Objectively Assessed Need for housing in accordance with the National Planning Policy Framework.

Understanding the Requirements Under new powers afforded under the 2011 Localism Act, Local Authorities are now responsible for setting their own targets and strategies for housing growth.

Local Authorities must now take the lead in synthesising evidence from a range of sources into a document which demonstrates an Objective Assessment of Need for housing, which should not be coloured

3 RPS Futures RPS Futures is a model developed by RPS to establish the Objectively Assessed Need for housing in accordance with the National Planning Policy Framework. It can be used as evidence in supporting site promotion through Development Plans, planning applications and planning appeals where objectively assessed housing need is a central consideration. Understanding the Requirements Under new powers afforded under the 2011 Localism Act, Local Authorities are now responsible for setting their own targets and strategies for housing growth. This must be informed by a range of evidence, set against the objectives of the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) and Planning Practice Guidance (PPG). Local Authorities must now take the lead in synthesising evidence from a range of sources into a document which demonstrates an Objective Assessment of Need for housing, which should not be coloured by Council agendas or potential constraints to development. While there is currently no one prescribed way in which housing need should be derived the Government is expected to present a new methodology for calculating OAN in Notwithstanding this, as a proven market leader with extensive residential experience and expertise, RPS presents the Futures model as a comprehensive tool to establish the Objectively Assessed Need for Housing. RPS can meet these challenges head on, by proactively engaging with the issues of Objectively Assessed Need for housing, to develop sound and robust evidence to support residential clients in preparing independent assessments of housing need at the local level.

4 Paragraph 47 [of the NPPF] requires full housing needs to be objectively assessed, and then a distinct assessment made as to whether other policies dictate or justify constraint. Here, numbers matter; because the larger the need, the more pressure will or might be applied to infringe on other inconsistent policies. The balancing exercise required by paragraph 47 cannot be performed without being informed by the actual full housing need. Paragraph 94, High Court Judgement. Gallagher Homes v Solihull. CO/17668/2013

5 What is Objective Assessment of Need? The assessment of objectively assessed housing need is the keystone on which Local Plans are based and planning decisions are made. Paragraph 14 of the National Planning Policy Framework is clear that the Objective Assessment of Need is integral to the presumption in favour of sustainable development, which is the golden thread running through the National Planning Policy Framework. The objective assessment of need is therefore the precursor for all residential planning decisions; being the fundamental component in establishing Local Plan housing requirements and calculating five year housing land supply positions. The planning balance on which sustainable development and local decisions for residential development are framed cannot be performed without first determining the Objective Assessed Need for housing. To boost significantly the supply of housing, local planning authorities should undertake robust and accountable studies which demonstrate a full Objectively Assessed Need for housing. The following questions are important in appraising local authority s position on objectively assessed needs: Is the assessment based upon the most recent demographic evidence? Is the assessment of the need for housing unconstrained? Is the assessment of needs an objective assessment based on robust facts and unbiased evidence? Does the assessment of housing take into account market signals, affordability and economic growth? Does the assessment consider sensitivity tests to national data on migration, economic performance of the area and align to local economic growth strategies? We comprehensively address all of these questions within RPS Futures model with the ability to tailor our assessment to local circumstances to support you in building robust evidence for independent assessments. In addition to district wide assessments of housing need, RPS can also model settlement level growth to explore the implications of housing on a small scale to support planning proposals in demonstrating sustainable development.

6 The Futures Model Household projections should provide the starting point estimate for establishing overall housing need (paragraph 015 of NPG) Plan makers should make an assessment of the likely change in job numbers based upon past trends and/or economic forecasts as appropriate and also having regard to the growth of the working age population in the housing market area (paragraph 018 NPG) Demographic (1A) Government Population Projections Affordability (1B) Government Household Projections Special Populations Migration Natural Population Growth Living in Unsuitable Housing Cannot Access Housing Household Formation Rates Household Size Concealed Households Population Profile Homelessness Local Plan Affordable Housing Assumptions Temporary Accommodation Temporary Accommodation 2nd Homes & Vacancy Rates Dwelling Conversion Assumptions LPA Specific Circumstances Circumstances LPA Specific Homelessness OAN (2A) Baseline Economic Forecasts Economic Activity Rates LPA Specific Circumstances Circumstances LPA Specific Unemployment Job Growth Commuting Rates Justification for Market Signals Uplift Local Economic Partnership Local Growth Input Evidence of Local Performance Economic Rents (2B) Past Trend Evidence Land Prices House Prices Rates of Development Overcrowding Market Signals The housing need number suggested by household projections should be adjusted to reflect appropriate market signals as well as other market indicators of the balance between the demand and supply of dwellings (paragraph 019 NPG) An increase in the total housing figures included in the local plan should be considered where it could help deliver the required number of affordable homes (paragraph 029 NPG)

7 RPS Futures RPS Futures is an innovative approach developed by RPS which has been designed to specifically determine and present robust and credible evidence to fully satisfy the requirements for Objective Assessment of Need for housing. RPS Futures approach builds upon recognised modelling techniques, which have been successfully tested to demonstrate an Objective Assessment of Need for housing. RPS Futures model can be applied to any stage of the planning process, supporting a Planning Application, Appeal or Development Plan Examination. RPS Futures model follows three components: Demographic, Economic, and Market Signals. These are presented in a clear and transparent way to be understood by both Inspectors and Council officers. RPS has the tools and the expertise to offer bespoke solutions for clients, which draw on local circumstances to present housing scenarios consistent with prevailing policy and guidance that are responsive to future changes in the market.

RPS in the Residential Sector Our extensive range of capabilities as well as our depth of experience and local knowledge make us the first choice consultant for a wide variety of house builders,

8 RPS in the Residential Sector Our extensive range of capabilities as well as our depth of experience and local knowledge make us the first choice consultant for a wide variety of house builders, developers and land owners We thus enjoy a high volume of repeat business - testament to the quality of the service we provide and the relationships we build. We focus on balancing commercial drivers with local context and client expectations to produce realistic, attractive and achievable housing schemes. Our ability to provide a full range of planning and development services in-house also enables us to identify potential problems in most environmental and technical areas. We then find answers to ensure that sites achieve their full potential in providing badly needed new homes. At the cutting edge of housing design and with an enviable record of planning success, we produce innovative, sustainable solutions that respond positively to the increasing emphasis on energy conservation. Our commitment to providing sustainable transport solutions from individual dwellings to whole communities also ensures that new housing integrates quickly and effectively in to existing patterns of movement. We work on residential projects with individuals and businesses of all sizes, and across both the public and private sectors. We work continuously with clients to fully understand their aims and objectives allowing us to provide solutions that are tailored to their specific needs in a residential market that is constantly changing. Our Services For more information contact: Tim Partridge Operational Director T: +44 (0) E: tim.partridge@rpsgroup.com Planning Applications of all sizes from one house to 10,000 Site promotion in forward plans Strategic and tactical advice and site prospects Masterplanning and Urban Design Design and Access Statements Housing Land Availability Assessesments Analysis of Objectively Assessed Need for Housing at the local level Landscape Design and Landscape and Visual Assessments Transport Planning, Transport Assessments and Highway Design Site and Environmental Engineering Architecture and Building Design M&E Building Services Utility Services Infrastructure (Gas, Water, Electricity, IT and Drainage) Environmental Assessment Heritage, Archaeology and Ecology Sustainability Assessments Consultation and Stakeholder Management Design Review Building Information Modelling (BIM) Noise and Air Quality Assessments Flood Risk Assessment and Drainage Strategies Public Consultation Expert witnesses at inquiries, hearings, examinations and court hearings.

Strategic Housing Market Assessment South Essex. Executive Summary. May 2016

Strategic Housing Market Assessment South Essex Executive Summary May 2016 Executive Summary 1. Turley in partnership with specialist demographic consultancy Edge Analytics were commissioned by the Thames