2013 Year End Washington Metro Area. Condominium Market Overview

Transcription

1 Year End Washington Metro Area Condominium Market Overview

2 mcwilliams ballard McWilliams Ballard Inc. is a progressive sales and marketing firm specializing in multifamily housing. The firm creates partnerships with developers and builders to provide start to finish sales and marketing solutions. Founded in 1996, McWilliams Ballard has become one of the most successful real estate firms on the East Coast. The firm s expertise is organized into five key categories: MARKET RATE SALES From due diligence through sales and settlement, McWilliams Ballard provides successful life-cycle management for all of your development requirements. We help you secure a competitive market rate advantage and guide you through the difficult day-to-day decisions by coordinating a knowledgeable team tailored to your needs. We support our clients throughout the entire process. From sales through settlements, no one has a more streamlined process. Our track record is proven. MARKET RESEARCH AND CONSULTING To ensure that our clients offer well-targeted and competitive products, McWilliams Ballard provides effective consultation and market analysis in a variety of submarkets covering a range of products. We are able to provide individual reports and ongoing market research and analysis for current and planned developments in over 12 states throughout the nation. These services guarantee competitiveness in pricing, product design, and sales and leasing strategy. Through our unmatched market insight, we minimize development risk and maximize profit. PRODUCT MIX AND POSITIONING McWilliams Ballard provides comprehensive sales and marketing solutions for builders and developers of all sizes. As part of our partnership, McWilliams Ballard guides its clients through the process of appropriate unit mix, sizing and finish level to maximize ROI and ensure the community maintains a competitive edge within the marketplace. DEBT & EQUITY ASSISTANCE Now, more than ever, lenders and investors demand best-in-class services at every level of the development and sales process. McWilliams Ballard partners with our clients to provide commercial grade research and analysis for each property, so that a thorough and comprehensive package is presented to potential lenders and equity participants. Our deep ties and reputation within the investment community allow us to strategically bring developers and investors together. LEASING AND PROPERTY MANAGEMENT McWilliams Ballard approaches leasing and property management with a fully-integrated, flexible, next-generation solution for each property. Each of our services are deployed in a manner that best suits the property, either as a complete solution, in tandem with an existing program, or as a oneoff service complementing an existing structure. Our outward focus is on top-echelon marketing to connect with consumer needs at every stage of the process, ensuring maximum ROI. For additional information please contact Chris Ballard or Ross McWilliams at

3 Introduction TO OUR VALUED CLIENTS - saw the number of new condominium sales climb 6% over, a 44% increase over 2011 and the highest number of sales in the Washington metropolitan area since Resale volume also improved, with a 16% increase in number of transactions and a nearly 10% increase in average price. In another indicator of just how strong demand has become, resale units spent, on average, 27 fewer days on the market in than. All jurisdictions posted increases in number of sales and average price, while seeing a decline in days on market. With just over a year s worth of inventory available, new supply has not kept up with demand. The overall increase in new sales largely came from the District and Loudoun County, as both jurisdictions saw substantial new inventory deliver in. Declines in the overall number of sales in other jurisdictions occurred as existing projects sold out, with few new projects to replace them. Prime submarkets such as Downtown Bethesda, Georgetown, Logan Circle, U Street and Capitol Hill are seeing condominium development stage a modest comeback, with a few projects under 100 units planned to deliver in the next two-to-three years. With resales in the prime submarkets showing a 20% increase in number of sales and 7% increase in average price per square foot, these new projects are poised for quick absorption and premium pricing. However, with few large condominium projects selling or planned, the number of new sales will likely remain well below peak levels in the near future. Resale volume, pricing and days on market in the District and Arlington have surpassed the peak values observed in All other jurisdictions remain below peak but are steadily increasing. In a year that saw uncertainty from external factors such as sequestration and the government shutdown, the continued strength in the region s condominium market proves its recovery is real. As the market continues to improve, there is clearly excess demand for new condominiums. Respectfully- Ross McWilliams Chris Ballard

4 contents - Key Figures 01 - New Condominium Market Overview 02 - Pipeline 08 - Overall Sales Activity 10 - Resales 11 - Distressed Sales 16 - Price per Square Foot vs. Unit Size 18 - Market by Market - The District 20 - Market by Market - Arlington 21 - Market by Market - Alexandria 22 - Market by Market - Fairfax 23 - Market by Market - Loudoun 24 - Market by Market - Prince William 25 - Market by Market - Montgomery 26 - Market by Market - Prince George s 27

5 1 KEY FIGURES New Condominium Sales 2,942 New Condominium Sales 2,777 Percent Change Year-over-Year +6% % of New Condominium Sales - TH Style 49% Arlington - Lowest 0% Prince William - Highest 99% % of Inventory Townhome Style 64% Arlington - Lowest 0% Prince William- Highest 100% Remaining Inventory 3,033 Remaining Inventory - Year End 2,921 Percent Change +4% Remaining Inventory - Year End ,852 Percent Change -84% Years of New Condominium Supply 1.0 Arlington - Lowest 0.17 Prince William - Highest 2.03 Condominum Sales Starts 2,229 Single-Floor Condominiums 922 (41%) Townhome Style 1,307 (59%) Near-Term Multifamily Pipeline 59,058 Maximum Potential Condominium 11,876 (20%) Metro Area Resale Price Change from +9.7% Prince William - Highest +17% The District - Lowest +5% Metro Area Resale Volume Change from +16.1% Loudoun - Highest +25% Fairfax - Lowest +11% Metro Area Days On Market Δ from -27 Days Montgomery - Highest -27 Days Loudoun - Lowest -12 Days

6 2 NEW CONDOMINIUM MARKET OVERVIEW The new condominium market In, the Washington metro area s condominium market continued to strengthen and pull further away from the bottom experienced in 2009 and New condominiums experienced a 6% increase in number of sales, driven by new product starting sales in the District, Loudoun and Prince William Counties. Other jurisdictions new sales declined, due only to further declines in remaining new condominium inventory. Arlington County is experiencing a particularly acute shortage of inventory, with only two months remaining. 16,000 YEARLY NEW CONDOMINIUM SALES 14,000 12,000 10,000 # NEW SALES 8,000 6,000 RUNNING AVERAGE = 5,384 4,000 2, ,400 9,100 13,350 5,700 4,785 1,875 2,176 2,645 2,039 2,777 2, % RUNNING AVERAGE

7 3 NEW CONDOMINIUM MARKET OVERVIEW The majority of new multifamily deliveries in have been of rental apartments, with more of the same under construction or planned in the near-term pipeline. Even top submarkets such as Logan Circle and the Rosslyn-Ballston corridor have seen nearly all new product deliver as rental. The few for-sale projects delivering into low-inventory submarkets are likely to hold pricing power. The District ALEXANDRIA NEW SALES SNAPSHOT Sales 869 Sales 510 Percent Change Year-over-Year +70% % of Metro Sales 30% % Single-Floor Condominiums 93% NEW SALES SNAPSHOT Sales 169 Sales 244 Percent Change Year-over-Year -31% % of Metro Sales 6% % Single-Floor Condominiums 50% ARLINGTON NEW SALES SNAPSHOT Sales 90 Sales 144 Percent Change Year-over-Year -38% % of Metro Sales 3% % Single-Floor Condominiums 100% FAIRFAX NEW SALES SNAPSHOT Sales 212 Sales 255 Percent Change Year-over-Year -17% % of Metro Sales 7% % Single-Floor Condominiums 39%

8 4 NEW CONDOMINIUM MARKET OVERVIEW Overall, 125 total projects were actively selling new units at year end, with an average project size of 33 units. Of the 2,229 units newly delivered in, 41% were sold within the year. This number was kept low by the District, which introduced the most new projects, many of which were rowhouse conversions, contributing to an average project size of 12 units. In the coming years, average project sizes will likely stay low or decline further as few planned deliveries will exceed 100 units. The split between townhome-style and one-level multifamily condominium sales was nearly even in, with the multifamily share of sales increasing to 49% from 44% in. 58% of newly delivered condominiums sold were multifamily-style, but were absorbed too quickly to contribute meaningfully to year-end inventory. MONTGOMERY NEW SALES SNAPSHOT Sales 293 Sales 515 Percent Change Year-over-Year -43% % of Metro Sales 10% % Single-Floor Condominiums 49% PRINCE George s NEW SALES SNAPSHOT Sales 89 Sales 170 Percent Change Year-over-Year -48% % of Metro Sales 3% % Single-Floor Condominiums 67% PRINCE WILLIAM LOUDOUN NEW SALES SNAPSHOT Sales 476 Sales 433 Percent Change Year-over-Year +10% % of Metro Sales 16% % Single-Floor Condominiums 1% NEW SALES SNAPSHOT Sales 744 Sales 506 Percent Change Year-over-Year +47% % of Metro Sales 25% % Single-Floor Condominiums 15%

9 5 NEW CONDOMINIUM MARKET OVERVIEW One-level multifamily is not likely to return to the 70% share of sales it held in 2011 in the near future, as new suburban projects like Ryan s Discovery Square and Pulte s Goose Creek village continue selling 2-over-2 condominiums. New deliveries also continue to be largely suburban townhomestyle condominium communities. Though these projects contributed to a slight increase in inventory, they are still likely to be absorbed quickly. As is typical, multifamily-style product captured a higher share of sales in closer-in jurisdictions. Alexandria, due to Pulte s Potomac Yard project, had a near-even split between multifamily and townhome-style sales. 93% of the District s sales were of multifamily product, while all of Arlington s sales were multifamily. The District and Arlington combined for 33% of new condominium sales in, approaching the 35% share experienced in 2005 near the market peak. Sales and units remaining for sale by product type 1,556 51% Townhome style 2,162 64% 1,386 49% multifamily % 2,942 total new condominum sales in remaining new condominium inventory at year end

10 6 NEW CONDOMINIUM MARKET OVERVIEW The metro area s inventory of new condominiums stands at one year of supply, essentially unchanged from Year End, but twelve months less than Therefore, the new condominium market remains undersupplied. The declines experienced in some jurisdictions were supply-driven rather than demand-driven. Further, the supply shortage is particularly acute in most premium submarkets, as evidenced by strong growth in resale prices. yearly new units remaining for sale 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 +4% 2,000 6,200 18,852 11,959 7,688 5,383 3,542 4,204 2,921 3,033 Mid-Year

11 7 NEW CONDOMINIUM MARKET OVERVIEW NEW SALES BY JURISDICTION SALES SALES YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE % OF METRO SALES % SINGLE FLOOR CONDO The District % 30% 93% Arlington % 3% 100% Alexandria % 6% 50% Fairfax % 7% 39% Loudoun % 25% 15% Prince William % 16% 1% Montgomery % 10% 49% Prince George s % 3% 67% TOTAL 2,942 2, % NEW UNITS REMAINING FOR SALE INVENTORY % OF METRO SUPPLY YEARS OF SUPPLY The District % 0.5 Arlington 15 0% 0.2 Alexandria 266 9% 1.6 Fairfax 258 9% 1.2 Loudoun % 0.9 Prince William % 2.0 Montgomery 261 9% 0.9 Prince George s 138 5% 1.6 TOTAL 3,033 1 YEAR

12 8 PIPELINE A mere 16% of the units that are either under construction or may begin within two years are planned as for-sale condominiums. At the 11-year average sales pace, the pipeline of units known to deliver as condos throughout the metro area will be absorbed in 1.23 years. In highly desirable submarkets, supply is even lower. The District and Arlington have only 6.5 months and fewer than 3 months of supply, respectively. Of the nearterm for sale pipeline, 52% is under construction, a number representing less than a year of supply. In sum, demand is sufficient to absorb all units currently in the near-term pipeline well before excess inventory will have a chance to accumulate. Most of the projects in the pipeline, particularly those with the most units, will deliver as rental. Of the 289 projects either under construction or set to start within two years, 177 are planned as rental. Planned or under construction rental projects average 279 units, while condominium projects average only 86 units. Projects or components of projects currently planned as rental apartments but may change to condominium could add an additional 2,256 units, meaning, at most, 20% of the near-term condominium pipeline may deliver as for-sale condominiums. The District continues to contribute most of the overall pipeline, as the metro area continues a structural shift toward close-in, transit-accessible areas. Montgomery and Fairfax counties nearly tie for second as Montgomery undergoes a transformation of its suburban areas along Rockville Pike and Downtown Bethesda, and several large projects find both approval and financing in sites along the Silver Line corridor. A small set of new condominium projects may create the appearance of a minor resurgence in condo development. Areas characterized by severe pent-up demand such as Mt. Vernon Triangle, Adams Morgan and Downtown Bethesda are seeing projects with fewer than 100 units begin construction. Still, the allure of low capitalization rates and the region s exceptional multifamily fundamentals ensure most new residential development delivers as rental apartments. It remains equally likely that too few condominiums will be built in the near term to meet demand or create oversupply conditions. Some projects planned for the near term will not deliver on time due to the limits of project financing and/or expected demand. The pipeline is constantly evolving and the determination of each project s status is based on statements made by developers or public news sources as well as information gathered by McWilliams Ballard.

13 9 PIPELINE ALL NEAR-TERM MULTIFAMILY FOR SALE & RENTAL TOTAL UNDER CONSTRUCTION PLANNED # OF PROJECTS FOR SALE MULTIFAMILY KNOWN for sale under construction UNITS PERCENT UNITS PERCENT The District 17,678 10,563 7, ,291 13% % Arlington 4,152 2,772 1, % % Alexandria 4,580 2,039 2, % % Fairfax 12,018 3,851 8, ,861 15% % Loudoun 2,502 2, ,375 55% 1,288 94% Prince William 1,975 1, ,299 66% % Montgomery 12,099 7,148 4, ,497 12% % Prince George s 4,054 1,874 2, % % TOTAL 59,058 32,031 27, ,620 16% 5,006 52% POTENTIAL FOR SALE MULTIFAMILY KNOWN for sale possible for sale max potential for sale TOTAL UNITS UNITS PERCENT The District 2, ,022 17% Arlington % Alexandria % Fairfax 1, ,035 17% Loudoun 1, ,375 55% Prince William 1, ,299 66% Montgomery 1, ,155 18% Prince George s % TOTAL 9,620 2,256 11,876 20%

14 10 Overall sales Activity s total sales activity increased an impressive 14% over. Coupled with average resale prices 9.7% higher than, demand has clearly strengthened considerably over this period. All jurisdictions experienced an increase in resale transactions. The District s 21% increase in resales was the largest of the metro area in percent terms. Outer jurisdictions Prince William, Loudoun and Prince George s all saw increases of over 10%. Resale as a share of total sales activity increased slightly, to 82% in. Total sales activity has been divided between new and resale in roughly the same portions since the crash. Thus, most buyers must still look at the resale market when purchasing a condominium, driving prices upward in most markets, even as overall sales volume increases and the stock of existing product ages. METRO AREA TOTAL SALES ACTIVITY 17,000 RESALES NEW SALES + 14% 15,000 13,000 2,777 2,942 11,000 9,000 2,176 2,.645 2,039 7,000 5,000 3,000 1,000 9,062 9,006 8,812 11,346 13,

15 11 RESALES The number of condominium resales in the region increased 16.1% versus, nearly attaining 2006 peak levels. While the average resale price increased 9.7%, days on market fell 11.4% from, further illustrating strong overall demand. Price per square foot increased 11.4%, exceeding levels observed in 2008 and 3.6% short of those seen in Prices throughout the metro area therefore show a clear upward trend, though still short of peak levels observed in 2005 and The low supply of new product, still-strong local economy and continued low interest rates suggest the metro area market will continue to improve to peak levels over the next few years. METRO AREA RESALES YEARLY UNITS SOLD AND AVERAGE PRICE 20,000 18,000 16,000 AVG. PRICE $360,000 $340,000 $320,000 14,000 $300,000 12,000 $280,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 $260,000 $240,000 4,000 $220,000 2,000 17,548 13,775 11,044 8,478 9,602 9,006 8,812 11,346 13,177 $200,

16 12 RESALES METRO AREA RESALES YEARLY UNITS SOLD & PRICE % CHANGE 35% 28.8% 25% 16.1% 15% 13.2% 7.8% 9.7% 5% 0% 3.7% 2.9% -5% -15% -25% -35% -21.5% -19.8% -20.2% -23.2% % -6.2% -2.2% -0.3% SALES CHANGE PRICE CHANGE Every metro area jurisdiction experienced an increase in both their number of resale transactions and average resale price. Loudoun County s 25% increase in number of transactions was the strongest, while its 13% increase in average price was third behind Prince William and Prince George s Counties. While their average price increases were less impressive in percentage terms than the outer suburbs, the District and Arlington had the distinction of being the only jurisdictions with number of sales and average pricing exceeding peak levels observed in At the end of, there were 1,627 active units on the resale market, a 9% decline from Mid-Year, but a 23% increase from the end of, when 1,321 units were available. This number represents only 1.48 months of supply, up only slightly from the 1.4 months of supply observed at the end of and well below the 2.4 months at the end of 2011.

17 13 RESALES Condominiums in the region s nine prime submarkets saw strong increases in number of units sold as well as price, with a 20% overall increase in number of sales and a 7% increase in price per square foot. While some submarkets slipped below their average prices, all prime submarkets saw an increase in price per square foot in. Capitol Hill and the under-supplied Rosslyn- Ballston Corridor lead the increases in price per square foot at 14% and10%, respectively. The prime submarkets averaged 39 days on market in, plummeting 37% from. This strength in demand is notable, especially given that the newest resale product was largely constructed at the peak of the previous cycle, now nearly ten years ago. New product delivering into prime submarkets will have a significant advantage as existing resale product continues to age. 110 days metro area resales yearly days on market and avg psf $350 psf 100 days 90 days $300 psf 80 days $250 psf 70 days 60 days $200 psf 50 days $150 psf 40 days $100 psf 30 days 67 DAYS 90 DAYS 75 DAYS 56 DAYS 70 DAYS 63 DAYS 36 DAYS

18 14 RESALES Average resale price - by jurisdiction DC $446,647 $426,151 ARL $377,514 $416,576 ALX $315,670 $299,941 MONT $283,110 $261,841 FFX $273,505 $245,887 LOUD $233,502 $205,944 PW $194,837 $166,965 PG $89,282 $78,191 $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000

19 15 resales Average resale price & prime submarkets DUPONT CR/ FOGGY BOTTOM $512,472 $532,331 DOWNTOWN DC $473,882 $537,950 OLD TOWN $458,570 $473,206 BETHESDA/ CHEVY CHASE $472,619 $500,880 GEORGETOWN/ UPPER NW ADAMS MORGAN/COL. HEIGHTS MT. VERNON SQ/ SHAW $435,682 $485,800 $463,388 $478,615 $457,955 $481,879 R- B CORRIDOR $430,239 $478,883 CAPITOL HILL $387,737 $403,678 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 $500,000 $550,000 $600,000

20 16 distressed sales Distressed sales as a percentage of total resales continued to decline in. Foreclosures and short sales together accounted for 16% of all sales, down from 23% in and 37.5% in Short sales continued to capture greater shares of distressed sales overall, increasing to 66% from 64% in and 55% in This continued shift among distressed sales had a positive impact on prices, as short sales commanded a 12% average price premium relative to foreclosures. Short Sales - Foreclosures - Market Resales 5.3% 10.5% 84.1% short sales - Foreclosures - market resales 8.2% 14.8% 77%

21 17 distressed sales All but one jurisdiction saw a decline in distressed sales percentage, with the District remaining at 5% distressed sales in, the second lowest in the metro area and down from 17% in Arlington s distressed share fell from 7% in down to 4%, the lowest in the area. The most drastic decline was in Prince William County, which saw distressed sales fall from 45% in to 26% in. Even foreclosure-plagued Prince George s County saw its share of distressed sales fall to 64%. The decline in distressed sales further illustrates the favorable conditions for new condominium development. With close-in jurisdictions nearly immune to distressed inventory and distressed sales less of a drag on prices in the outer suburbs, concerns about this type of product challenging the market for new product continue to disappear. 1% 1% 4% 3% 5% 7% 4% 5% 7% 7% 16% 10% 7% 24% 19% 40% 95% 96% 88% 77% 89% 85% 74% 36% DC ARL ALX MONT FFX LOUD PW PG MARKET RATE SHORT SALE FORECLOSURE

22 18 price per square foot vs. unit size The graph below depicts the average price per square foot and number of sales in size range categories. As in years past, average price per square shows a U-shape as it progresses through size categories, with the highest prices per square foot achieved in the smallest and largest-size units. In most condominium product, the marginal value per square foot declines as the unit size increases. However, high-end luxury units are typically both large and expensive, yielding higher prices per square foot in the largest unit size categories. As this effect is strongest in prime submarkets, the chart below is limited to units in these areas. 700 AVERAGE PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT BY SIZE RANGE PRIME SUBMARKET RESALES AVERAGE PSF BY SF RANGE - PRIME SUBMARKET RESALES $657 AVG PSF QTY $654 $ $ AVG PSF $576 $560 $561 $547 $563 $ QTY < ,000-1,199 1,200-1,399 1,400-1,599 1,600-1,799 1,800-1,999 2, UNIT SIZE RANGE (SF)

23 19 price per square foot vs. unit size Most units sold fell in the middle size categories, with 68% of resales between 600 and 1,199 square feet. Sales with the highest prices per square feet, those less than 400 square feet or more than 1,900 square feet, comprised only 2% of total resales in prime submarkets. While not capturing the highest prices per square foot, it is safe to assume the market will absorb larger numbers of units in these middle size ranges than those of extreme size. Additionally, units in the middle size ranges sold the quickest, with the 2,000+ square foot size range spending the most days on market at 88. Therefore, in designing units for maximum price per square foot, attention should be paid to days on market and required capture rates of units of a given size category to ensure demand is sufficient for that unit type. McWilliams Ballard continues to examine the relationship between unit sizing, price and demand, assisting developers in achieving maximum revenue and profit from their project designs. PRIME SUBMARKET RESALES BY SIZE AND DAYS ON MARKET SIZE RANGE (SF) AVG DOM < ,000-1, ,200-1, ,400-1, ,600-1, ,800-1, ,

24 20 market by market The District NEW CONDOMINIUM SUBMARKET HIGHLIGHTS The District s number of condominium sales increased 70% in, as an under-supplied market eagerly absorbed new projects. The average size of a new project delivered in was only 12 units, with CityCenterDC exceptionally large at 216 units. The District s new condo sales accounted for 29.5% of all sales in the metro area. More than 10,500 multifamily units are currently under construction, with another 7,000 planned in the near term. However, only 13% of all units under construction or planned are expected to be condominiums. RESALE SUBMARKET HIGHLIGHTS & CHART Average resale prices increased 5% in a more modest increase than most other jurisdictions but experienced a strong 21% increase in number of sales. The District and Arlington share the distinction of being the only jurisdictions to have surpassed their peak average prices. Days on market declined by 24 days, further illustrating the strong demand in the District DOM QTY 3,253 2,685 2,991 COMPARED TO COMPARED TO -24 Days 16 Days 21% 9% THE DISTRICT $475 7% $442 $446 COMPARED TO 7% AVG PSF = 2006 AVG $ $446,647 5% $426,151 $432,226 COMPARED TO 3%

25 21 market by market arlington NEW CONDOMINIUM SUBMARKET HIGHLIGHTS Arlington best exemplifies the acute shortage of new condominiums in the close-in jurisdictions. With Dominion Heights, The Eclipse and Turnberry Tower selling out in, remaining units represent only two months of inventory. The 90 new sales occuring in represent a 38% decline versus, as the lack of new supply moved much of the sales activity to resales. Among the more than 4,000 units under construction or planned in the near term, fewer than 1% are known to be condominiums. A number of buildings currently planned as rental but may switch to for sale increased the potential condminium units to 14%. With so little supply, any new project delivering into this market will have significant capacity to drive pricing and sales pace. RESALE SUBMARKET HIGHLIGHTS & CHART Average resale price increased 10% in after remaining mostly flat in. This increase was accompanied by a 16% jump in the number of sales. Days on market declined by 21 days to an average of just 29 days on market ,474 1,276 1, Days COMPARED TO 10 Days DOM QTY 16% COMPARED TO 2% ARLINGTON $397 10% $362 $392 COMPARED TO 1% AVG PSF = 2006 AVG $ $416,576 10% $377,514 $399,642 COMPARED TO 4%

26 22 market by market alexandria NEW CONDOMINIUM SUBMARKET HIGHLIGHTS Alexandria s new condo sales fell 31% as inventory at new communities began to decline. At s sales pace new condominium supply stood at 1.57 years of supply, essentially unchanged from but well below the 4.1 years observed at the end of Nearly all of Alexandria s condominium units planned or under construction have already begun selling, including the Oronoco and the second phase of Condominiums at Old Town Commons. The city s average resale price increased 5% over. Despite both an increase in average price and accompanying 20% surge in number of sales, these levels were still 8% and 29% below the peak, respectively, indicating that room remains for the market to improve in the current cycle. RESALE SUBMARKET HIGHLIGHTS & CHART Days on market was consistent with area-wide trends, falling 21 days relative to , ,540 COMPARED TO COMPARED TO DOM QTY -21 Days 19 Days 20% -29% ALEXANDRIA $286 6% $271 $336 COMPARED TO -15% AVG PSF = 2006 AVG $ $315,670 5% $299,941 $343,827 COMPARED TO -8%

27 23 market by market fairfax NEW CONDOMINIUM SUBMARKET HIGHLIGHTS New condominium sales in Fairfax fell 17% in, with new inventory rising 22%. The increase in inventory is due to the late introduction of 198 units at Ryan Homes Discovery Square, with the additional inventory likely to boost the number of new sales through Sales at The Isabella at Monticello Mews have brought one-level multfamily condominium sales back to Fairfax, comprising 39% of new sales versus only 18% in. The introduction of new multifamily-style buildings at Pulte s Metrowest will continue this trend through The county s substantial pipeline more than 12,000 under construction or planned is due mostly to new development at Tysons and Reston, spurred on by the forthcoming Silver Line Metrorail expansion. A raft of new development is also occurring near Huntington and points south along Route 1. Most planned and potential condominium units are in phases or components of larger residential developments in these areas. RESALE SUBMARKET HIGHLIGHTS & CHART The average resale price rose 11% in, with an 8% increase in number sold. Price and number sold were still well below peak market levels, with days on market falling to near-peak averages. Resale prices are likely to continue to improve, particularly among multifamily units in undersupplied areas of the county such as Merrifield ,827 2,615 4,526 COMPARED TO COMPARED TO DOM QTY -14 Days 5 Days 8% -38% FAIRFAX $241 10% $219 $289 COMPARED TO -17% AVG PSF = 2006 AVG $ $273,505 11% $245,887 $313,900 COMPARED TO -13%

28 24 market by market Loudoun NEW CONDOMINIUM SUBMARKET HIGHLIGHTS The county followed its two-fold increase in new sales in with a further increase of 47% in. The county s 744 new sales was the second highest number in the metro area and comprised a quarter of the metro area s sales. With 85% of all new sales townhome-style units, Loudoun is a condominium market dominated by townhome product. Still, a few projects, such a Van Metre s Centre Park, contributed some multifamily-style sales. Loudoun ended the year with the second highest inventory in the metro area, but with its strong sales pace, the inventory represented only 11 months of supply. This number is particularly significant given the crippling 5 years of supply remaining at the end of Much of the county s pipeline consists of townhome developments currently selling, with additional phases either planned under construction. RESALE SUBMARKET HIGHLIGHTS & CHART The number of resales in Loudoun surged 25% in, the highest increase in the metro area, with a 13% average price increase to further prove the strength of demand in the county. Despite these improvements, the county is still well below peak levels in all price and resale pace metrics COMPARED TO COMPARED TO DOM QTY -12 Days 6 Days 25% -30% LOUDOUN $173 $155 12% $251 COMPARED TO -31% AVG PSF = 2006 AVG $ $233,502 13% $205,944 $305,464 COMPARED TO -24%

29 25 market by market Prince William NEW CONDOMINIUM SUBMARKET HIGHLIGHTS New condominium sales in Prince William County increased by 10% in, with townhomestyle condominiums the dominant product type in this jurisdiction. The county s inventory of new units increased 65% in, with new projects such as Centex s Cherry Hill Crossing and Stanley Martin s Powell s Landing bringing additional supply. This inventory represents two years of supply, an amount the market will readily absorb if the improving resale market is any indication. RESALE SUBMARKET HIGHLIGHTS & CHART Average resale prices increased 17% over, the largest price increase in the metro area. The number of sales increased a healthy 16%. Resale average days on market plunged from 41 days in to only 26 days in. Increases in new sales and strength in resale pricing indicate a substantial recovery is underway, though the resale market is still far from peak levels in all metrics ,061 COMPARED TO COMPARED TO DOM QTY -15 Days 11 Days 16% -35% PRINCE WILLIAM $137 15% $119 $213 COMPARED TO -36% AVG PSF = 2006 AVG $ $194,837 17% $166,965 $266,714 COMPARED TO -27%

30 26 market by market Montgomery NEW CONDOMINIUM SUBMARKET HIGHLIGHTS New condominium sales fell in, as few units at the large townhome-style projects that contributed heavily to sales remained. Despite the slower pace, the years of supply available are essentially unchanged from, remaining below one year. Montgomery s sizeable pipeline mostly contains rental units, as most projects in Downtown Bethesda and the Rockville Pike corridor are too large to sell as condominiums. However, a few well-located projects under 100 units such as Duball s Woodmont View will bring some additional inventory to this supply-starved market. RESALE SUBMARKET HIGHLIGHTS & CHART The county s average resale price increased 8%, with the number of sales increasing 19% to 2,231 transactions. Average resale days on market fell a dramatic 26 days, bringing Montgomery s average days on market below peak levels. With this apparent strength in demand, the county is likely to see its number of sales and pricing continue to approach peak levels ,231 1,870 3,129 COMPARED TO COMPARED TO DOM QTY -27 Days -7 Days 19 % -29 % MONTGOMERY $228 8% $211 $257 COMPARED TO -11% AVG PSF = 2006 AVG $ $283,110 8 % $261,841 $320,692 COMPARED TO -12 %

31 27 market by market Prince George s NEW CONDOMINIUM SUBMARKET HIGHLIGHTS While the number of new condominium sold fell in, the introduction of new product at NVR s Greenbelt Station is likely to increase sales over The project is by far the largest contributor to remaining inventory, with Hall Station and Plaza Lofts 22 selling out in. The county has seen a small boom in multifamily rental construction, with Canyon s Apollo Camp Springs and The Peterson Companies The Esplanade beginning in. Additional condominiums are planned in future phases of Greenbelt Station and Potomac Overlook. RESALE SUBMARKET HIGHLIGHTS & CHART Average resale prices continued to climb from the apparent bottom observed between 2011 and, increasing 14% with 11% more sales. Prices and volume still have a long way to go before reaching their peak levels, but the trends are clearly positive. Days on market fell 24 days from s average, further demostrating the improving conditions for the residential market in the county ,976 COMPARED TO COMPARED TO DOM QTY -24 Days 45 Days 11% -49% PRINCE GEORGE S $79 18% $67 $177 COMPARED TO -55% AVG PSF = 2006 AVG $ $89,282 14% $78,191 $212,958 COMPARED TO -58%

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