An Analysis of Residential Real Estate Trends. Somerset County, New Jersey 3rd Quarter 2006

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1 The Otteau Report An Analysis of Residential Real Estate Trends Somerset County, New Jersey 3rd Quarter Prepared By: THE OTTEAU APPRAISAL GROUP, INC. Administrative Offices Brunswick Woods Office Park 15 Brunswick Woods Drive East Brunswick, New Jersey

2 SCOPE OF THE STUDY The Otteau Report has been prepared by our Research Department as part of a continuing effort to bring a focus to the complex and highly diversified real estate markets of New Jersey. The information and analyses contained herein are based in whole, or in part, on data supplied by various sources including Boards of Realtors and Multiple Listing Systems, and may therefore not reflect all real estate activity in the market. While believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee, nor assume responsibility for the accuracy of information which has been supplied to us by others. This study may not be reproduced or used in whole or in part, except with proper credit as to its authorship. ABOUT US Our firm is comprised of a group of skilled professions specializing in the complex and highly diversified real estate markets of New Jersey. With a broad based exposure in real estate appraisal and consultation, our firm engages in a diversified practice encompassing the valuation of residential, commercial and industrial properties, as well as vacant land and residential subdivisions. Additional expertise is offered to both the public and private sector for litigation matters involving the valuation and corresponding expert testimony for properties involved in eminent domain proceedings, contractual disputes, bankruptcy, tax appeals, equitable distribution and estate valuations. Our experience with special purpose properties includes golf courses, nursing homes, marinas and hotels. Appraisal and consulting services are provided by the firm to attorneys, financial institutions, governmental agencies, developers, investors, relocation management service companies, corporations and the public. Jeffrey G. Otteau, President As the President of the firm, Mr. Otteau manages all facets of the firm s business and has been actively engaged in real estate appraisal since He holds the State Certified General Real Estate Appraiser, which is the highest level of certification offered by the State of New Jersey. Frequently quoted in the New York Times and Wall Street Journal, and having appeared on CNBC, Mr. Otteau is widely respected for his knowledge and insight into real estate trends. He has provided testimony as an expert witness at the municipal, county and state levels, authored several texts on property valuation techniques and has lectured throughout the United States and in Canada. Jeffrey is a past member of the Appraisal Standards Advisory Council which consulted with the Appraisal Foundation in Washington, D.C. on its agenda of projects and major technical issues. Mr. Otteau served as a past Chairman of the Employee Relocation Council's Appraisal Standards Council. He is a co-author of the Relocation Appraisal Guide (1991,1994 & 2 editions) and was inducted into the Employee Relocation Council's distinguished Hall of Leaders in Niels V. Guldbjerg, Vice President As Vice President, Niels has the responsibility for managing the firm's commercial division. He has been actively engaged in the valuation of real property since 1981 and holds the prestigious State Certified General Real Estate Appraiser license in addition to the IFAS designation. Niels has extensive experience with the valuation of income-producing real estate, subdivision development properties and ad valorem taxation. He is an accomplished seminar speaker and has appeared as a guest on television and radio shows. Mr. Guldbjerg has also provided testimony as an expert witness for litigation matters. Copyright All rights reserved. Without limiting the foregoing, no part of this publication may be reproduced, copied, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the Otteau Appraisal Group, Inc.

3 Appraisal and Consulting Services Performed for the Following Clients: THE FORTUNE 5 Abbott Laboratories Alcoa American Home Products Amoco Oil Co. Anheuser Busch Companies Armstrong World Industries Bristol-Myers Squibb Brown-Forman Carter-Wallace Circuit City Group Digital Equipment Corporation E. I. dupont de Nemours Eastman Kodak Company Eli Lilly Company ExxonMobil F.M.C. Corporation Foster Wheeler General Motors Corporation Hercules Incorporated Marriott Corporation McGraw Hill Merck Nabisco Pharmacia & Upjohn Procter and Gamble Prudential Insurance Co. Raychem Corp. Rhone-Poulenc Rorer Sara Lee Bakery Schering-Plough State Farm Insurance Time Warner W.R. Grace Westinghouse Electric Corporation FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS Amboy National Bank Bank of New York Bank of Oklahoma Bank of St. Louis Barclay's Bank PLC Broadway National Bank Chase Home Mortgage Corporation JP Morgan Chase Connecticut National Bank Countrywide Financial Citigroup The Dun and Bradstreet Corporation Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp. Federal National Mortgage Assoc. Fleet First Savings Bank First Washington State Bank General Electric Credit Corporation General Motors Acceptance Corp. Goldman, Sachs Magyar Bank Morgan Guaranty Trust Company New Millenium Bank North Fork Bank PNC Bank Philadelphia National Bank Pittsburgh National Bank Resolution Trust Corp. (RTC) Sovereign Bank Texas Commerce Bank Unity Bank Yardville National Bank OceanFirst Bank Washington Mutual Wachovia Wells Fargo Bank DEVELOPERS & BUILDERS M. Alfieri Co., Inc. American Properties Kushner Companies US Home / Lennar Kara Homes Matzel Development Pulte Homes Toll Brothers, Inc. MISCELLANEOUS ADP Bausch & Lomb CSX Transportation Ciba-Geigy Corporation Cigna Corporation Frito-Lay Gulf Oil Honeywell Janssen Pharmaceuticals Kemper Insurance Group Kraft-General Foods Marion Merrel Dow McDonald's Corporation Nationwide Insurance Co. Nestle USA Princeton University Public Service Electric & Gas Salvation Army Siemens Corporation Sony Corporation of America GOVERNMENTAL Branchburg Township East Brunswick Township Marlboro Township Middlesex County Improvement Authority Monroe Township New Jersey Green Acres Washington Township

4 MARKET STUDY KEY The following key will be helpful in understanding the market research data contained on the following pages: New Offerings Sales Supply & Demand Ratio Unsold Inventory Projected Absorption County Composite Number of home offerings which first became available for-sale within the specified market area in each of the time periods indicated. This statistic includes expired listings which have been re-listed for sale. Number of homes which were contracted for-sale within the market area in each of the time periods indicated. Contract-Sales provide a more timely indication of market activity than Closed-Sales due to the time lag between "contract" and "closing", and therefore provide the most reliable and timely indicator as to the number of buyers who are active in a given market area at a particular point in time. The relationship between "New Offerings" and "Sales" activity expressed as a percentage ratio. Changes in this ratio can often be an early indicator of a shift in market conditions. A rising ratio is indicative of improving market conditions, while a declining ratio suggests weakening market conditions. Total number of homes being offered for sale within the market area at the end of the indicated period. A projection of how long it will take for the market to absorb the inventory of unsold homes (Unsold Inventory) within each market area. An aggregate compilation of all market activity within the county, which includes all of its municipalities.

5 BEDMINSTER TOWNSHIP BEDMINSTER TOWNSHIP 3rd Quarter At-A-Glance Average # Of Offerings/Monthly Average # Of Sales/Monthly Supply & Demand Ratio 75% 93% 9% 64% 56% Unsold Inventory Projected Absorption (Months)

6 BERNARDS TOWNSHIP BERNARDS TOWNSHIP 3rd Quarter At-A-Glance Average # Of Offerings/Monthly Average # Of Sales/Monthly Supply & Demand Ratio 56% 81% 59% 69% 52% Unsold Inventory Projected Absorption (Months)

7 BERNARDSVILLE BOROUGH BERNARDSVILLE BOROUGH 3rd Quarter At-A-Glance Average # Of Offerings/Monthly Average # Of Sales/Monthly Supply & Demand Ratio 51% 57% 82% 45% 24% Unsold Inventory Projected Absorption (Months)

8 BOUND BROOK BOROUGH BOUND BROOK BOROUGH 3rd Quarter At-A-Glance Average # Of Offerings/Monthly Average # Of Sales/Monthly Supply & Demand Ratio 54% 65% 7% 62% 55% Unsold Inventory Projected Absorption (Months)

9 BRANCHBURG TOWNSHIP BRANCHBURG TOWNSHIP 3rd Quarter At-A-Glance Average # Of Offerings/Monthly Average # Of Sales/Monthly Supply & Demand Ratio 47% 111% 83% 61% 26% Unsold Inventory Projected Absorption (Months)

10 BRIDGEWATER TOWNSHIP BRIDGEWATER TOWNSHIP 3rd Quarter At-A-Glance Average # Of Offerings/Monthly Average # Of Sales/Monthly Supply & Demand Ratio 65% 69% 86% 57% 43% Unsold Inventory Projected Absorption (Months)

11 FAR HILLS BOROUGH FAR HILLS BOROUGH 3rd Quarter At-A-Glance Average # Of Offerings/Monthly Average # Of Sales/Monthly Supply & Demand Ratio % 167% 13% 57% 43% Unsold Inventory Projected Absorption (Months)

12 FRANKLIN TOWNSHIP FRANKLIN TOWNSHIP 3rd Quarter At-A-Glance Average # Of Offerings/Monthly Average # Of Sales/Monthly Supply & Demand Ratio 62% 75% 6% 6% 43% Unsold Inventory Projected Absorption (Months)

13 GREEN BROOK TOWNSHIP GREEN BROOK TOWNSHIP 3rd Quarter At-A-Glance Average # Of Offerings/Monthly Average # Of Sales/Monthly Supply & Demand Ratio 42% 76% 88% 7% 51% Unsold Inventory Projected Absorption (Months)

14 HILLSBOROUGH TOWNSHIP HILLSBOROUGH TOWNSHIP 3rd Quarter At-A-Glance Average # Of Offerings/Monthly Average # Of Sales/Monthly Supply & Demand Ratio 65% 83% 81% 62% 5% Unsold Inventory Projected Absorption (Months)

15 MANVILLE BOROUGH MANVILLE BOROUGH 3rd Quarter At-A-Glance Average # Of Offerings/Monthly Average # Of Sales/Monthly Supply & Demand Ratio 7% 72% 55% 54% 57% Unsold Inventory Projected Absorption (Months)

16 MILLSTONE BOROUGH MILLSTONE BOROUGH 3rd Quarter At-A-Glance Average # Of Offerings/Monthly Average # Of Sales/Monthly Supply & Demand Ratio % % 2% 75% % Unsold Inventory Projected Absorption (Months) 2 2

17 MONTGOMERY TOWNSHIP MONTGOMERY TOWNSHIP 3rd Quarter At-A-Glance Average # Of Offerings/Monthly Average # Of Sales/Monthly Supply & Demand Ratio 67% 15% 64% 52% 48% Unsold Inventory Projected Absorption (Months)

18 NORTH PLAINFIELD BOROUGH NORTH PLAINFIELD BOROUGH 3rd Quarter At-A-Glance Average # Of Offerings/Monthly Average # Of Sales/Monthly Supply & Demand Ratio 85% 8% 72% 67% 52% Unsold Inventory Projected Absorption (Months)

19 PEAPACK & GLADSTONE BOROUGH PEAPACK AND GLADSTONE 3rd Quarter At-A-Glance Average # Of Offerings/Monthly Average # Of Sales/Monthly Supply & Demand Ratio 25% 67% 42% 87% 56% Unsold Inventory Projected Absorption (Months)

20 RARITAN BOROUGH RARITAN BOROUGH 3rd Quarter At-A-Glance Average # Of Offerings/Monthly Average # Of Sales/Monthly Supply & Demand Ratio 88% 77% 57% 85% 54% Unsold Inventory Projected Absorption (Months)

21 ROCKY HILL BOROUGH ROCKY HILL BOROUGH 3rd Quarter At-A-Glance Average # Of Offerings/Monthly Average # Of Sales/Monthly Supply & Demand Ratio 133% 1% 5% 1% 67% Unsold Inventory Projected Absorption (Months)

22 SOMERVILLE BOROUGH SOMERVILLE BOROUGH 3rd Quarter At-A-Glance Average # Of Offerings/Monthly Average # Of Sales/Monthly Supply & Demand Ratio 52% 64% 8% 59% 49% Unsold Inventory Projected Absorption (Months)

23 SOUTH BOUND BROOK SOUTH BOUND BROOK 3rd Quarter At-A-Glance Average # Of Offerings/Monthly Average # Of Sales/Monthly Supply & Demand Ratio 5% 69% 64% 75% 58% Unsold Inventory Projected Absorption (Months)

24 WARREN TOWNSHIP WARREN TOWNSHIP 3rd Quarter At-A-Glance Average # Of Offerings/Monthly Average # Of Sales/Monthly Supply & Demand Ratio 49% 48% 59% 57% 38% Unsold Inventory Projected Absorption (Months)

25 WATCHUNG BOROUGH WATCHUNG BOROUGH 3rd Quarter At-A-Glance Average # Of Offerings/Monthly Average # Of Sales/Monthly Supply & Demand Ratio 34% 57% 36% 36% 12% Unsold Inventory Projected Absorption (Months)

26 SOMERSET COUNTY COMPOSITE SOMERSET COUNTY COMPOSITE 3rd Quarter At-A-Glance Average # Of Offerings/Monthly Average # Of Sales/Monthly Supply & Demand Ratio 61% 78% 69% 6% 45% Unsold Inventory Total Market Less than $6k 7 $6k - $1 million 1 Projected Absorption (months) $1,,1 - $2.5 mil. 15 Greater than $2.5 mil. 31

An Analysis of Residential Real Estate Trends. Gloucester County, New Jersey 3rd Quarter 2006

The Otteau Report An Analysis of Residential Real Estate Trends Gloucester County, New Jersey 3rd Quarter Prepared By: THE OTTEAU APPRAISAL GROUP, INC. Administrative Offices Brunswick Woods Office Park