THE MARYLAND-NATIONAL CAPITAL PARK AND PLANNING COMMISSION (M-NCPPC) AGENDA ITEM #: 3D

Transcription

1 THE MARYLAND-NATIONAL CAPITAL PARK AND PLANNING COMMISSION (M-NCPPC) AGENDA ITEM #: 3D PRINCE GEORGE S COUNTY PLANNING BOARD BRIEFING SEPTEMBER 24, 2015

2 Competitive Retail Market Analysis and Strategic Action Plan and Marketing Strategy for Prince George's County PURPOSE Strengthen and diversify the County s local and regional retail base and help guide future commercial and residential development and land use decisions by County policy makers. Phase I Objective Countywide Retail Market Analysis Phase II Competitive Retail Market Strategic Action Plan and Marketing Strategy 2

3 About the RCLCO Team Practice Groups Public Strategies Community Development Urban Development Management Consulting Institutional Advisory Offices Washington, DC Los Angeles Austin Orlando RCLCO is a land use economics firm delivering real estate strategies, market intelligence, and implementation assistance PUBLIC STRATEGIES answers questions concerning real estate, economics, finance and policy for our public sector clients. Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies 3

4 Prince George s County Retail Strategic Plan Steering Committee Prince George s County Office of the County Executive David S. Iannucci, Assistant Deputy Chief Administrative Officer Brad Frome, Assistant Deputy Chief Administrative Officer Lavinia Baxter, Special Assistant to Deputy Chief Administrative Officer Prince George s County Economic Development Corporation Larry Hentz, Business Development Specialist Prince George s County Department of Housing and Community Development Eric C. Brown, Director Prince George s County Redevelopment Authority Stephen J. Paul, Associate Director Prince George s County Council The Honorable Dannielle M. Glaros, Councilmember (District 3) Jackie W. Brown, Committee Director, Planning, Zoning and Economic Development (PZED) Committee Prince George's County, Maryland Conference & Visitors Bureau, Inc. J. Matthew Neitzey, CAE, CDME, CEcD, Executive Director Prince George s County Planning Department Jacqueline Philson, Master Planner, Project Manager/Facilitator Derick Berlage, Chief, Countywide Planning Division Ivy A. Lewis, Chief, Community Planning Division Vanessa C. Akins, Chief, Strategy and Implementation Teri Bond, Planning Supervisor Ted Kowaluk, Senior Planner 4

5 Retail Strategic Plan Development Phase 1 Phase 2 ASSESS AND PRIORITIZE HOW TO EFFECT CHANGE Retail Market Analysis, Consumer Segmentation, Performance Outlook Countywide Market Analysis Market Segmentation and Psychographic Analysis Retail Market Performance Outlook Retail Opportunity Analysis High End/Luxury Retail Consumer Marketability Analysis Five-Year Strategic Action Plan Identify Goals Policy and Strategy Recommendations Marketing Strategy Targeted Outreach Marketing and Branding Presentation of Findings Case Study Analysis (Currently Underway) 5

6 RETAIL MARKET INVENTORY ANALYSIS Shopping Centers by Type Shopping Centers by Trade Area 1.2% 0.4% 2.1% 4.1% 9.5% Strip/Convenience Neighborhood Community % 46.5% Power Lifestyle Outlet 20 Regional/Super- Regional *Surveyed shopping centers over 10,000 square feet only 0 North Central South 6

7 Is Prince George s County Over-Retailed? Quality vs. Quantity Number of Shopping Centers County Shopping Center Distribution by Center Rating A B C F/Defunct Rating of Center Quality 8 7

8 EFFECT* Anchor Tenants Overachieve in Retail Center Class and Space Typically Occupied Power Center Tenant Regional Mall Jr. Dept. and Discount Stores Replace Category Killers as Anchors In Line Tenant Anchor Tenant Space Fitness Center in Anchor Space Strip Center Tenant Community Center Strip Tenants in Community Space *Rental rates ($19.55 NNN) receive a discount to the Washington, D.C. MSA but a premium to Baltimore area rental rates. 8

9 North Trade Area has more retail square feet than other trade areas, but is not of a high caliber million square feet of retail space. Almost half rates as C or below. 55% of it is strip or neighborhood shopping centers. Central Trade Area has the highest quality regional shopping centers. 37% of retail gross leasing area (GLA) is regional-serving, all of which is high quality. 68% of community center GLA is in a good state of repair. 2% of neighborhood centers and 30% of strip centers are in good repair. South Trade Area is undersupplied with small centers. 78% of centers in the south are in a good state of repair. Though the south has about the same number of centers as the Central Trade area, the south has about half as much retail gross leasing area (GLA). Retail Trade Area Supply 9

10 RETAIL TRADE AREA DEMAND OPPORTUNITIES Young and Urban Moderate spending power Concentration of office employment Upper middle class families Highest spending power Mix of demographics International/ethnic influence Lowest spending power Walkable neighborhoods Higher density housing Multimodal access Low density Single family suburban neighborhoods Well served by highways and major road network Older single family Large multi family buildings/complexes High proximity to multimodal options but some areas have low walkability or connectivity to them Small scale centers near households and transportation Household needs (grocery, drug, convenience) Mid priced food and dining Entertainment venues Strongest opportunity for high end national tenants Major retail centers (power, lifestyle, and regional) drawing from the whole county Serve niche populations with local or non traditional tenants Identify service gaps for household needs Existing, cheap space ripe for independent businesses Renovate older buildings and main streets Improve quality of tenanting at existing retail centers Identify location/center most suitable for higher end retail Improve quality of tenants Address location and access issues 10

11 Prince George s County has the Potential to Capture Additional $700 Million in Retail Sales Annually Growth in households, employees, visitors will drive new spending 2014 Retail Sales = $7.2 billion 2014 Retail Demand = $7.9 billion Spending Gap = $700 million annually that the County could capture 2014 Demand for 20.1 million sq. ft. (2014) By 2020 Projected Demand 21.2 million sq. ft. By 2025 Projected Demand 22.0 million sq. ft. $8,000,000,000 $7,800,000,000 $7,600,000,000 Annual Sales and Demand Gap $700M $7,400,000,000 $7,200,000,000 $7,000,000,000 $6,800,000,000 Total Retail Sales Generated incl. Estimated Grocery Total Retail Demand 11

12 12

13 MARKETABILITY OF PRINCE GEORGE S COUNTY SITE LOCATION AND DEMOGRAPHICS 13

14 POPULATION DENSITY Most retailers are looking for density of at least 50,000 in 3 mile radius (medium and dark green). Strongest Potential For Retail In Terms Of Population Density Langley Park Hyattsville Cheverly New Carrollton Laurel Branch Avenue 1,000 PSM = 28,000 in 3 mile radius 2,000 PSM = 55,000 in 3 mile radius 5,000 PSM = 140,000 in 3 mile radius 14

15 MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME Most retailers are looking for MHI above $75,000 (medium and dark green). Disparity Between Areas With Higher Household Incomes And Areas That Have Density Inside of I 495, dense population with median household incomes below $75,000. Retailers need volume of shoppers with incomes to support quality high priced goods. 15

16 EDUCATION LEVEL (% WITH BACHELORS+) Retailers Vary on Education Level Site Selections Criteria Education levels are cited as being more important than income by Whole Foods, Trader Joe s, and other lifestyle retailers, but the cut off is less well defined. Highest Concentrations Northern and Central Parts of the County, Outside of I 495. College Park. Areas Surrounding University of Maryland (UMD). 16

17 LUXURY vs. HIGH END 17

18 Marketability of Prince George s County Nationwide Luxury/High End Retail Increasingly Challenging To Capture Baltimore-Washington Region is one of the wealthiest and most educated areas in the U.S. Prince George s County is well above national averages for college educated residents, density, and household income. Super-prime, Wealthy, Dense, Retail locations in areas neighboring Prince George s County make it difficult for the County to compete for luxury retail. Disparity is within the County where site selection criteria for high-end retail is strongest. Inside I-495 High Population Density, Lower Income Outside I-495 High Income, Low Population Density The challenge for Prince George s County -- Educate developers, brokers, and retailers about areas that match their location criteria, and prove that there are areas where retail could flourish that do not exactly match their criteria. 18

19 High End Retail Demographic Concentrations Washington Baltimore Region Most favorable locations offer site selection criteria desired by luxury retailers: Population density of 500,000 residents in a 5 mile radius. Median household income of $75,000 to $100,000. Strong concentration of college degrees. 19

20 For Additional Information Please Contact: The Maryland National Capital Park and Planning Commission Prince George s County Planning Department Countywide Planning Division Derick P. Berlage, AICP, Chief Derick.Berlage@ppd.mncppc.org Jacqueline Philson, Project Manager Jacqueline.Philson@ppd.mncppc.org Full Retail Market Analysis Report Available At: Market Analysis.htm 20