Residential Market Overview

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2 Economic Overview During the first 9 months of 2008 Bulgaria registers economic growth of 7%, compared to the same period of GDP amounts to million leva. During the period January-October 2008 export of goods and services is million leva and has risen by 18.9%, compared to the same period of Import amounts to million leva and has gone up by 22.7% compared to the same period of During the first 9 months of 2008 the share of services continues to dominate in the economy 60.4% of GDP with a growth of 6.8%. Industrial sector ranks second 31.2% of GDP, however recording a decrease by An increase in households' incomes the average income per person of the population has risen from leva in October 2007 to leva in the same month of 2008, the increase being to the extent of 11.90%. Basic interest rate in the country towards November 2008 is 5,72% which is 1,46 per cent points more than November Meanwhile, effective annual per cent on the new credits on mortgage of households is 10,48% which is on annual base 2.49 per cent points more, whereas on credits in Euro 8.91% or 1.56 per cent points more. Annual per cent of costs for credits on mortgage service towards November 2008 has risen on 2%.Agricultural sector has 8.4% of GDP, its increase annual base by 2.4 per cent points up to 11.13% for credits being the most significant 24%. in leva and by 1.53 per cent points up to 9.54% for credits Inflation level towards November 2008 is 8% on in euro. annual base. The same indicator towards November 2007 is 11.3%. Unemployment is on the decrease 5.85% towards November 2008, compared to 6.62% towards November The decrease on annual base is 0.77%. Foreign investment activity is on the decrease. Direct foreign investments in the country during the first 9 months of 2008 amount to million leva, compared to million leva for the same period of 2007 which represents a decrease by 1.97%. At the end of November 2008 the share of bad credits in relation to credits on mortgage for households is 2.19% while in November 2007 it is 2.14%. During the period January-November 2008 the new credits on mortgage granted are million leva which is by 0.75% less than the same period of 2007 when credits to the amount of leva are granted. In November 2008 the amount of credits on mortgage granted is by 30.41% smaller than October 2008 and by 53.66% smaller than November Real Estate Market Overview During sale-trades of real estates were made in Bulgaria, which is by 4.79% lower than 2007 when deals were made. Direct foreign investments in real estates during the first 9 months of 2008 amount to million Euro which represents a decrease by %, compared to the same period of 2007, while direct foreign investments in building have fallen by % and are million euro. The average growth of sale prices of residential real estates in Bulgaria in 2008 is 14.88% and is due mainly to dynamic ascending market development during the first half of the year while at the end of the second half there has been a decrease in almost all towns and villages. The average growth of rent prices of properties in residential segment is 4.74%. In 2008 many residential buildings were completed in the whole country. The highest is the amount of completed residential area in Sofia sq.m., Varna sq.m and Plovdiv sq.m. The major groups of clients in the segment are Bulgarian and Russian citizens. Throughout the year two-room-residences are most demanded. However, an increased interest is observed towards the three-room apartments, as well. The average yields of residential estates in Bulgaria towards the end of December 2008 is 6.34%, a value which is average for Europe. In Sofia profitability is 5.89%, in Varna 4.97%, in Plovdiv 4.86%. The trend for increasing construction and demand of residential real estates in suburban areas of big towns remains strong and it is more and more valid for smaller towns and villages, as well, due to the lower prices of residences in their outlying areas. During the first half of 2008 a considerable part of residential real estates purchases from Bulgarian citizens all around the country are made through residential credits, unlike the second half, when bank limit crediting and most of the deals are made with own financial resources. At the end of 2008 real estate market got out of the nearly 5-year long boom cycle. It coincided with the world economic crisis which accelerated that process in Bulgaria.

3 Supply During the first half of 2008 a great amount of newly-built residential areas was added to the available supply on the territory of the country, which is considered a peculiar extension of the trend for constant increase of building activity in residential field which started several years ago. At the end of the period sq.m residential area is in the process of building in Sofia, sq.m. in Plovdiv, sq.m in Varna and sq.m in Burgas, and these values refer to sites within the cities mentioned only. According to preliminary data, in 2008 in Sofiacity, residential buildings with total built-up area of sq.m were constructed, sq.m. in Varna, sq.m in Plovdiv. In the capital the greatest amount of residential area was built in Manastirski livadi ( sq.m.), Lyulin ( sq.m) and Mladost ( sq.m) quarters; in Varna in Levski ( sq.m) and Vazrajdane ( sq.m) quarters, in Plovdiv in Smirnenski ( sq.m) quarter. As a result of the influence of current economic processes on international and national level, the investment activity in building and real estates has slowed down. It is proved not only by the lower volume of direct foreign investments, but also by the smaller number of building permits issued (for the first 9 months of 2008, their number has fallen by 10.38%, compared to the same period of 2007). The decrease in the number of issued residential building permits is by -7.02%. In the last group, Burgas has the biggest number of issued permits 984, Sofia-city 917 and Varna 896. Although fewer residential projects are being announced, they are larger in scale. In 2007 the average size of a residence site in the capital is sq.m, while in 2008 the figure is sq.m. The negative impact of the world financial crisis which Bulgaria experienced during the last quarter of the year, already has given evidence. Due to the lack of financial resources, bank system of the country limited crediting both for business and individual consumers. As a result, some of the investors were forced to stop their projects for an indefinite period of time. A big number of newly announced sites are expected not to be started at all. The trend has also a positive effect, meaning some not very good projects with bad conceptions or lacking such, are not going to be realized. In case they are constructed, they will experience serious problems in finding realization. Apart from them, business will leave a number of building companies and real estate agencies, as the present market situation requires more experience, professionalism and clients' trust. Among the residential sites under construction during the year, Europe Park is the largest in area, situated on the place of Balkancar-Sredec plant in the Major residential developments completed in 2008 Development Town Residential Number of area residential (sq. m) units Vitosha Park Sofia Belle Valley Sofia Reduta In Sofia Ostrava Residential Complex Varna Boutique Residence Varna Sunflowers Residential Complex Plovdiv South City Complex Plovdiv Green West Complex Plovdiv capital. Its construction started towards the end of summer. The site represents a multifunctional complexwith total built-up area of sq.m, including offices, a hotel, retail and entertainment zone in addition to residential part. Term of completion of the complex is Other interesting projects in the process of building in Sofia are Residential complex Buysell, Residential Park Sofia and Complex Tzarigradski, including the construction of 436, 700 and 1300 apartments respectively. In Varna complex Varna One is the largest with total built-up area of sq.m, 47% of which is residential area, providing for the construction of 1500 apartments. The rest of the area is distributed among 6 buildings with office area, 2 hypermarkets, kindergartens, rest area, restaurants and parking spaces. Term of completion of the whole complex is autumn Next in size is Orchid Hills Varna and Orchid Gardens, including the construction of 467 and 107 apartments. In Plovdiv one of the most interesting residential sites is Kolodruma complex, situated on Asenovgradsko shosse blvd., including 17 blocks of 284 apartments and a retail center. Other interesting projects in Plovdiv are residential complex Elit in Trakiya housing estate, including the construction of 480 apartments and D&D Village in Markovo village with 61 houses and 372 apartments. In Burgas the largest in size residential project under construction is Perla complex, situated in Zornitza quarter, providing for the construction of 192 apartments, rest area, swimming pool, playground, café, restaurant, fitness and SPA center..

4 Demand During the first half of the year demand remains comparatively stable while during the second half interest towards real estates as a whole gets smaller and a drop in the number of concluded deals is observed. They decrease by 1.77%, compared to the same period of Causes of that result from the world financial crisis, namely market situation insecurity, lack of crediting, rising unemployment level. That is why in 2008, mostly during its second half very few investment deals are made. It is rare that people buy Greenfield residences. That creates a problem to investors with starting projects for which they find it difficult to provide financing. During the last quarter of the year, residential estate demand for purchase is performed mainly by people who desperately need a lodging. They look mainly for completed apartments because of the low risk involved, the insignificant difference in prices and the possibility to use the property immediately. There is a decrease in demand of panel residences, as well, because almost no crediting for such properties is offered at present. Most clients prefer to wait and put off property search in order to get an idea of market development. The decrease in demand as a result of limited crediting finds also expression in the opposite tendency, because the rising level of unemployment and constantly growing interest rates hold consumers back from credit requests for property purchase. The situation differs a lot from the first half of the year when nearly 80% of residential estate purchases are made by means of credits on mortgage. In relation to size of residential estates, two-room apartments still gain the highest interest but there is a growing one towards three and four-room apartments, as well. Main group of clients are Bulgarians and Russians. Apartments whose price is under 1000 euro per square meter are mostly demanded, however, interest is also observed towards very luxurious properties with a cost of over 1500 euro per square meter. The present higher supply has led to an increase in the number of inspections clients perform prior to purchase decision which in turn prolongs the bargain conclusion term, causing it to get as long as 2 months. When making a residence purchase decision, the ratio between price, on one side, and different factors like location, building disposition, surrounding infrastructure and parking space availability, on the other side, turns out to be of great importance. Prices and yields In 2008 residential estate prices are dynamic. The average increase on annul base amounts to 14.88% which is mainly due to ascending market development during the first 9 months of the year. After October sales values start going down by up to 10%, on average, in the different parts of the country, which leads to a decrease in price growth only, however does not lead to negative annual values. The highest is the increase in Russe and Sofia, the lowest in Burgas and Varna, the sea capital even recording a minimum decrease. Thus, average sale price of apartments in Sofia at the end of December 2008 is 1203 euro, in Varna 1056 euro, in Plovdiv 758 euro, in Burgas 857 euro, Stara Zagora 571 euro, Blagoevgrad 502 euro, Veliko Tarnovo 553 euro, Russe 746 euro, Dobrich 474 euro, Kardjali 403 euro. It deserves mentioning that offer prices, announced by owners at the moment do not show the real price deals are concluded at. The fact that in some regions supply considerably exceeds demand creates prerequisites for additional drop in price. Buyers usually aim at the agreement of sale values to the extent of 10 to 30%. Price change of residential real estates in Bulgaria for 2008 Old brick buildings Panel Buildings New developments Sofia 20.98% 13.93% 24.95% Plovdiv 10.34% 30.65% 5.26% Varna 0.44% 0.04% -3.36% Burgas 1.67% 1.10% 3.10% Ruse 26.63% 31.54% 27.07% Veliko Tarnovo 14.07% 6.57% 7.40% Dobrich 15.94% 18.20% 18.18% On average 19.95% 15.42% -0.96% 1.95% 28.41% 9.34% 17.44% At the same time, average profitability of properties in the segment at the end of December 2008 is 6.34% and has gone down by 0.14 per cent points, compared to December Nevertheless, residential estate purchase remains a good long-term investment. Residence profitability in Sofia is 5.37%, in Varna 4.97%, Plovdiv 4.86%, Burgas 5.78%.

5 Rental Market Overview In 2008 rent market also experiences a dynamic development, an inevitable reflection of the overall real estate market situation, and the trend of decrease in the sale-trade of properties. The main changes on rent real estate market start during the last quarter of the year as a consequence of the aggravated credit situation and the more and more difficult allowance of credits on mortgage by the banks. The high prices of residences and the growing interests on credits on mortgage force more people who do not have their own home to choose renting as a way to provide a lodging. The year 2008 is characterized by an increase in the amount of residences offered for rent-resulting from the dynamic development of sale-trade market during the last years when a large number of properties were purchased with investment purpose for future rentals. This, of course, have influenced apartment rent values which register a decrease and deals are already made at much more reasonable prices. Yet, prices in the segment have an average growth of 4.74 % for the country. Their highest increase is in the capital by 26 % on average, while the biggest decrease is observed in Plovdiv 11.7 %. The increase in prices is mostly typical of smaller residences, whereas prices of bigger apartments go down. During the second half of 2008, in addition to higher supply, an actual increase in the number of concluded deals is recorded, compared to the second half of In general, two-room residences still attract the greatest interest. Deals with these apartments are made quickly because there is a high demand. With regard to bigger residences, the trend is the opposite. They stay long on the market and cannot be realized at the price levels, popular an year ago. Rental price change of apartments in Bulgaria for 2008 Furnished Unfurnished Sofia 23.73% 31.36% Plovdiv % % Varna -7.27% 5.25% Burgas 4.38% 12.04% Ruse -6.05% 1.11% Luxury 23.68% -8.15% -7.80% 4.55% 8.87% On average 26.26% % -3.27% 6.99% 1.31% Veliko Tarnovo 18.37% 3.40% 19.27% 13.68% Price differentiation is observed according to the size of residence, as well as according to location and property condition. Increased supply has led to an increase in clients requirements. Convenient location is not enough. The residence should be in a good condition and well furnished. The average number of inspections made prior to client's decision has got bigger and is already between 5 and 8. With regard to demand areas in the capital, central parts, Lozenetz and south quarters are the most attractive. Having in mind the development of the territories around Bulgaria blvd. and Todor Aleksandrov blvd. as prestigious office buildings zone, more and more residences are in demand in the nearby quarters. Most clients consider it very important their residence to be within easy reach to their work place. This explains the strong interest at the moment towards residences in Mladost -4 where Business Park Sofia is. Н Forecasts The number of newly announced residential projects will fall significantly while some of those which have started will be stopped till market situation gets clear and possibilities for financing of sites resume. The trend of decrease in the number of deals will stay firm. Sale prices of residential properties will continue to fall which will offer good possibilities for speculative deals conclusion. Bad market situation will force many companies to leave building and real estate field.

6 HEAD SALES OFFICE Varna 9000, 31A Maria Louiza Blvd. Tel/Fax: SALES OFFICE VARNA Varna 9000, 3-5 Dr. Jelezkova Str. Tel: , Fax: RENTALS OFFICE - NORTHERN SEASIDE Varna 9000, 59B Slivnitza Blvd. Tel: ; Tel/Fax: rentals@foros.bg SALES AND RENTALS OFFICE SOFIA Sofia 1000, 38 Patriarh Evtimii Blvd. Tel: , sofia@foros.bg SALES AND RENTALS OFFICE SUNNY BEACH Sunny Beach 8240, Joy Complex Tel: , 581; Tel/Fax: sunnybeach@foros.bg SALES AND RENTALS OFFICE PLOVDIV Plovdiv 4000, 6 Slivnitsa Str., 4th floor, office 5 Tel: Tel/Fax: plovdiv@foros.bg SALES AND RENTALS OFFICE BOURGAS Bourgas 8000, 40 Hristo Botev Str. Tel: ; Tel/Fax: burgas@foros.bg SALES AND RENTALS OFFICE VELIKO TARNOVO Veliko Tarnovo 5000, 50A Stefan Stambolov Blvd. Tel: , vtarnovo@foros.bg SALES AND RENTALS OFFICE ROUSSE Rousse 7000, 3 Svoboda Sq. Tel: , Tel/Fax: ruse@foros.bg SALES AND RENTALS OFFICE DOBRICH Dobrich 9300, 8 Svoboda Sq. Bulgaria - hotel, foyer Tel: dobrich@foros.bg SALES AND RENTALS OFFICE BANSKO Bansko 2770, 6 Pirin Str. Tel/Fax: : bansko@foros.bg STARA ZAGORA SALES AND RENTALS OFFICE Stara Zagora Tzar Simeon Veliki, 3rd floor, office 5 Mobile: starazagora@foros.bg SALES AND RENTALS OFFICE BLAGOEVGRAD Blagoevgrad 2700, 52 Alexander Stamboliiski Blvd. Tel./Fax: blagoevgrad@foros.bg SALES AND RENTALS OFFICE BALCHIK Balchik 9600, 4 Primorska Str. Tel/Fax: balchik@foros.bg SALES AND RENTALS OFFICE KARDZHALI Kardzhali 6600, 92 Bulgaria Blvd., building 42 Tel/Fax: kardzhali@foros.bg All the information containing in this report is a private property of FOROS - National Real Estate Company and it could not be used or published without the explicit permission of FOROS