CBRE RESEARCH A S I A PA C I F I C

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1 A S I A PA C I F I C REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK

2 TABLE OF CONTENT 04 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 06 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK OFFICE RESIDENTIAL SECTOR SECTOR 12 OFFICE SECTOR 16 RETAIL SECTOR 19 INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS SECTOR 22 CAPITAL MARKETS 25 RISKS & OPPORTUNITIES 2

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4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The new year has started with a mood of optimism for the Thai economy lifted by an upbeat global outlook. Developers are competing fiercely for prime development sites, driving up prices to record levels and both condominium prices and office rents are at record highs. EXPORTS AND TOURISM: MAIN CONTRIBUTION TO THAI ECONOMY The Thai economy is picking up with growth in exports and tourism. Thailand finished last year with 3.9% Y-o-Y gross domestic product (GDP) growth, resulting from a significant increase of 9.9% in exports to all major markets. The tourism sector, accounting for 20% of the country s GDP, saw a record 35.4 million arrivals in 2017 with further growth predicted for LOCAL DEVELOPERS FORM JOINT VENTURES WITH FOREIGN PARTNERS Thai banks are being conservative about new project lending to developers and so Thai developers are seeking funding from foreign partners. Most joint ventures to date have been with Japanese investors on a project-by-project basis for condominiums. CBRE is now also seeing investors from other countries such as Hong Kong, Singapore and China. Although earlier joint ventures started with condominium development, we expect new investment in both condominium and income producing properties. DEMAND CONTINUES FOR PRIME SITES Demand for prime sites has remained strong with developers continuing to acquire sites both for condominium and rental income producing office, hotel and retail developments. Central business district (CBD) land prices will continue to increase in the most prime locations near mass transit stations. We have already seen the biggest land sale in Thai history with the acquisition of the British Embassy site by the CPN/Hongkong Land joint venture and a record price paid for a development site on Soi Langsuan by SC Asset. Developers are starting to diversify with residential condominium developers looking at moving into income producing office, retail and hotel properties. The scarcity of prime, CBD freehold sites will drive prices up. STEADY DEMAND FOR OFFICES BUT TENANTS START TO LOOK AT ALTERNATIVE WORKPLACE SOLUTIONS CBRE expects steady office demand of 200,000 sq.m. per year for the next few years, but does not expect a sudden jump in demand, so new supply of less than 200,000 sq.m. in 2018 will mean that vacancy will remain low and rents will continue to rise, but at a slower rate. 4

5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY As rents rise, office tenants will seek to reduce occupation costs by applying workplace strategies so they can put more people in less space. Changes in international accounting rules where leases now have to be accounted for on the balance sheet and the desire not to pay for the capital cost of fit-out and have no long-term commitments will lead some multinationals to choose renting by the desk in co-working space, rather than leasing and fitting out traditional offices. Four international co-working space operators will open their first locations in office buildings in Bangkok s CBD this year. CBRE expects they will continue to expand in RETAIL LANDLORDS TO CREATE NEW EXPERIENCES The contest between bricks versus clicks, with the disruptive effect of e-commerce on traditional retail formats, will start to be felt in Thailand in CBRE predicts that the vacancy rate of 5% will fall as renovations are completed on existing shopping centres. New supply will be about 300,000 square metres in 2018, compared to 100,000 square metres in 2017, increasing competition among retail centres to attract customers. Retailers and retail landlords will have to adapt by creating unique experiences that cannot be replicated online. Retailers will also become omni-channel with a mixture of online and offline sales which could mean they need less space. E-COMMERCE DRIVES DEMAND FOR MODERN LOGISTICS The growth in e-commerce will lead to increased demand for all forms of modern logistics properties. Export growth in manufactured goods could be the catalyst for a recovery in serviced industrial land plot sales and ready-built factory rentals. Infrastructure improvements under the Government s Thailand 4.0 and Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) policies should make Thailand a more attractive destination for local and foreign investment in manufacturing, but much of this improvement will only come when the infrastructure is completed. Fierce competition for prime development site, driving up prices to record levels. 5

6 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

7 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK E C ONOMIC G R O W T H I S P I C KING U P W I T H E X PORTS A N D T O U R I S M Thailand s economic growth is gradually improving, and the Bank of Thailand has forecasted that GDP growth will reach near 4% in Thailand s rapid increase in tourist arrivals, export growth and infrastructure developments are continuing to drive the economy. Thailand had 35.3 million tourist arrivals in 2017, a record number with 8.6% growth Y-o-Y. In 2018, the total revenue from both international and domestic tourist arrivals is expected to be at 2.7 trillion baht or 20% of the country s GDP was a strong year for exports with estimated full year growth at 9.9%, the highest in six years and exceeding overall global export growth of 8.6%. The Commence Ministry expects export growth to increase by 6-6.5% this year. CBRE Research expects to see a recovery in consumer confidence and spending which will be positive for the property markets. 7

8 RESIDENTIAL SECTOR

9 RESIDENTIAL SECTOR F O R E I G N C A P I TAL I N F L U X HIGHER FOREIGN CAPITAL INFLOW Raising capital through collaboration with foreign partners has now become the new standard as local developers seek bigger war chests for new development because Thai banks have become more cautious about project lending. Joint ventures have allowed younger developers like Ananda Development and Origin Property to replicate the growth accomplished by their bigger competitors. Foreign investors are also seeing this need for capital to penetrate the Thai market. Unless banks relax their project financing criteria, CBRE Research believes this trend will continue. With most of the top publicly listed developers already having one partner or more, it will be interesting to see who will be next in line for a foreign partnership. There have also been greater efforts by developers to market Bangkok condominiums offshore with much emphasis on Chinese buyers. Thailand, unlike Hong Kong, Singapore and Australia, does not have special stamp duties for foreign purchasers, but it is very difficult for foreign buyers to obtain a loan to fund a purchase of property in Thailand. The Chinese government has also made it clear that it wants to discourage Chinese nationals from buying overseas properties by implementing even tougher capital control policies. Thai buyers still accounted for more than 75% of transactions for new luxury downtown Bangkok condominium properties based on sales by CBRE in

10 RESIDENTIAL SECTOR The Bangkok luxury condominium market will continue to be dominated by Thai purchasers. The performance of the downtown luxury market will depend on Thai buyer s willingness to pay the increasing asking prices. STEADY LUXURY MARKET WITH MID-MARKET SLOWLY REGAINING PACE In Q4 2017, CBRE Research started to witness signs of recovery in the midtown/suburban markets after three consecutive years of decline in the number of sales and new launches. This is also reflected by the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), which rose for six straight months since August 2017 to January The index showed that consumers were more positive about the economy and felt more confident to spend money. Developers have responded quickly with 64,000 new condominium units launched at all price ranges and locations in 2017, compared to 55,000 units in CBRE Research believes that the outlook for the end-user driven residential market will be brighter in Banks have eased lending criteria on mortgage loans, which should increase the buyer s ability to borrow money and access to mortgage finance. This should help clear up unsold inventory in the midtown/suburban areas to make way for newer developments. However, there continues to be a great disparity between the downtown and midtown/suburban markets. The midtown/suburban markets still faces challenges in clearing off unsold inventory whereas there is little unsold inventory in the downtown area. Most downtown projects will continue to achieve record prices, but not every developer hoping to achieve more than THB 300,000 per sq.m. will be successful. The midtown/suburban markets will see mixed performance. Successful projects will either be in locations closer to CBD, existing/under construction mass-transit lines or in locations with limited existing supply. Rapidly rising land prices and scarcity of freehold land in prime downtown locations have forced developers to explore and reach out to new locations and unexploited land plots for development opportunities. Residential developers will continue to diversify their investments into other property classes or new customer segments. Relying on only one market will be too risky in this increasingly competitive environment. Figure 1: Newly Launched Condominium Units in Bangkok No. of Units Midtown/Suburban Areas Downtown Area 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Source: CBRE Research 10

11 RESIDENTIAL SECTOR EXPAT ALLOWANCES CONTINUE TO LIMIT RENTAL GROWTH OF APARTMENTS AND SERVICED APARTMENTS Lump sum monthly rentals will remain unchanged as expatriates housing allowances have not increased in over a decade and the growth in the number of expatriates is expected to be flat in However, occupancy for both sole-ownership apartments and serviced apartments is expected to remain healthy at above 95% and 80%, respectively, due to limited supply. Demand for apartments in Bangkok mainly comes from foreign expatriates. Due to the limited supply, the competition will continue to come from condominium units for rent. However, expatriate tenants prefer soleownership apartments over multi-ownership condominiums because of the availability and convenience of maintenance services. The serviced apartment market is driven by two groups: the long-term market which is driven by expatriate employees, especially Japanese, and the daily rate business which is driven by tourists and business travelers. Serviced apartment operators cannot rely only on the long-term market. CBRE has seen a growing number of serviced apartments focusing on the daily rate business by operating more as hotels and the units become smaller in newer serviced apartment developments. NEW MASS TRANSIT LINES OPEN NEW DEVELOPMENT AREAS FOR HOUSING PROJECTS The demand for housing will recover due to the increase in new mortgage lending up by 20% in Q3 2017, the latest data available from the Real Estate Information Center (REIC). The increase in the mortgage lending will support sales of housing units. This will give developers confidence, allowing them to launch more housing projects in line with the recovery of demand. On the developer s side, banks will continue to be conservative about project lending which may reduce the new supply from small developers. Future infrastructure development, especially the mass transit lines, will spur residential development in more areas of the city. The development of the MRT Orange Line and Pink Line will increase the attractiveness of the Northeastern part of Bangkok as a residential area. However, home buyers will only decide to buy when they see significant progress of the construction of this infrastructure. Housing supply is going to increase in the outers areas of Bangkok due to the increasing land price in central and midtown Bangkok. 11

12 OFFICE SECTOR

13 OFFICE SECTOR C H A N G I NG W A Y S O F W O R KING OVERVIEW The overall Bangkok office market remained stable in 2017, with steady demand, limited new supply, falling vacancy rates and rising rents, but with slower growth compared to last year. In 2017, supply rose by 217,000 sq.m., making the total amount of office space 8.8 million sq.m. while demand rose by 194,000 sq.m., which is the same level as it has been in the past four years, resulting in a stable vacancy rate at slightly lower than 8%. Demand for space in new buildings remained strong as shown by the strong leasing performance of recently completed office developments in good locations such as Bhiraj Tower at BITEC, Gaysorn Tower and Ari Hills, all of which were 80-95% leased shortly after completion. Rents in every location and grade continued to rise at 4-5% Y-o-Y. At the end of 2017, the average grade A rent in the CBD rose to THB 994 per sq.m. per month, a 4.3% increase Y-o-Y. Gaysorn Tower became the most expensive building in Bangkok with the highest rental rate of THB 1,400 per sq.m. per month, exceeding the rent in Park Ventures which had been at THB 1,300 per sq.m. per month since

14 OFFICE SECTOR Currently, Gaysorn Tower, Park Ventures and Bhiraj Tower at EmQuartier are achieving rental rates above THB 1,000 sq.m. per month. All these buildings can be accessed by the BTS Light Green Line, in locations from Chidlom Station to Phrom Phong Station, which office tenants perceived as the most prime locations in Bangkok. All rental rates mentioned are for small units of 100 to 300 sq.m. Figure 2: Bangkok Office Market sq.m. Total Supply Total Take-up Vacancy Rate Vacancy Rate 10,000,000 F o r e c a s t 50% 9,000,000 45% 8,000,000 40% 7,000,000 35% 6,000,000 30% 5,000,000 25% 4,000,000 20% 3,000,000 15% 2,000,000 10% 1,000,000 5% 0 0% Source: CBRE Research Figure 3: Average Achieved Rents for Bangkok Office Space THB /sq.m. CBD Grade A CBD Grade B Non CBD Grade A Non CBD Grade B 1, Figure 4: New Office Supply by Area sq.m. CBD Non CBD F o r e c a s t 300, , , , ,000 50, Source: CBRE Research Source: CBRE Research 14

15 OFFICE SECTOR OUTLOOK Looking forward over the next two years, the overall market condition is expected to be the same as 2017, with vacancy rates falling as space from new office completions will be less than the expected net take-up of 200,000 sq.m. per year, but rents are expected to rise more slowly. About 584,000 sq.m. of office space was under construction across Bangkok which is scheduled to be completed between 2018 and ,000 sq.m. will be completed in 2018, 100,000 sq.m. in 2019 and 250,000 sq.m. in If construction starts on more projects in 2018, then the market condition after 2020 will change. Developers have acquired sites where they plan to build two million sq.m. of office space, but construction has not yet started. More developers have acquired sites to build mixeduse complexes with an office component. Demand for office space has been reasonably healthy over the last few years despite a slow economy. CBRE expects companies will continue to expands, but as rents rise, more and more tenants will seek to reduce occupation costs. We have seen tenants started to apply the 360 workplace strategy, where they use less space to fit more people. This can be done in a column-free floor plate which allows them to fit out their space in a more creative way. Some tenants will give up their meeting rooms and there are some tenants considering leasing co-working space. This is not only cost saving from renting smaller space, but also saving capital spending on fit-out cost. It is more flexible as tenants do not have to commit on long-term lease, but only to membership fee. The co-working space trend is emerging in Bangkok. In the second half of 2017, CBRE leased approximately 18,000 sq.m. of office space to co-working space operators across the CBD. In 2018, four international players will open their first centers in six locations in grade A office buildings in Bangkok. Besides international players, local operators like HUBBA also have plans to open more locations in 2018 with sizes ranging from 1,000 to 4,000 sq.m., which is bigger than any of their existing centers. Not only start-ups are using co-working space, but some multinational companies are putting their staff in co-working space. This is partly a result from changes in international accounting rules where leases now have to be accounted for on the balance sheet. Landlords need to design buildings to support more people per sq.m. Besides column-free floor plate, other core specifications and supporting facilities include a sophisticated airconditioning system with greater temperature control, faster more efficient lifts, more toilets per floor and supporting retail. With all this being said, rent is still the most important factor for tenants when choosing their new office premises, followed by the location and how close the office building is to a mass transit station. The last factor, which has become more important, is to win the talent war by providing a working environment that allows companies to attract and retain the best employees. This can be achieved by applying 360 workplace strategy supported by the right building specifications. 15

16 RETAIL SECTOR

17 RETAIL SECTOR C L I C K S D R I VING T H E R E VOLUTION I N B R I C KS With Thailand s Consumer Confidence Index maintaining its positive trend since the second half of 2017, the retail sector is expected to see growth in With this being said, the retail property sector still faces challenges from high consumer debt, low wage growth and the growth of e-commerce. As of Q4 2017, there was a total of 7.36 million sq.m. of retail net lettable area, with new supply increasing by about only 100,000 sq.m. since the previous year. There will be major increases in supply, with nearly 500,000 sq.m. of net lettable area of retail supply under construction, of which about 350,000 sq.m. is expected to be completed in The major upcoming projects due for completion this year are ICONSIAM and the second IKEA at CentralPlaza WestGate. Occupancy has been positive since the second half of 2017 due to a recovering economy and some shopping centers reopening space after renovation. There is at least 500,000 sq.m. of new supply planned where developers have acquired sites and said they would include a retail component, but where construction has not yet started and exact details have not been released. Thai retail landlords will still focus on renovating and, in some cases, expanding their existing shopping malls to improve their competitive position. 17

18 RETAIL SECTOR The biggest theme for the retail sector continues to be the growth of e-commerce. In 2017, the total revenue in the Thai e-commerce market is expected to reach THB 2.8 trillion, an increase of 9.86% Y-o-Y, which is still less than 1% of total retail sales. In other countries with developed e-commerce, online sales now account for between 10-18% of total retail sales. Many retailers are reacting to e-commerce by adding an online channel so that they can have an online and offline omni-channel offering. The future is still uncertain, but e-commerce will change Thai retail property. If weaker retailers and malls cannot reinvent themselves, they will become obsolete. The retail mall is not dead and people will still want to visit retail stores, but the way that they shop and the preferred format will change. This will have the biggest change on the retail property market since the evolution of modern retail with the advent of the department store more than 100 years ago. Globally e-commerce is the biggest threat to traditional retail malls and landlords are looking for solutions to compete, with a focus on creating experiences that cannot be replicated online. Figure 5: Bangkok Retail Market Net Area (sq.m.) Total Supply Total Take-up Occupancy Rate 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 Occupancy Rate 100% 98% 96% 94% 92% 90% 88% 1,000, % Source: CBRE Research 18

19 INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS SECTOR

20 INDU STRIAL & LOGISTICS SECTOR D I G I TAL T R A N S F ORMATION L E A D S T O B E T TER L O G I S TICS In 2017, the overall Thailand industrial property market was stagnant due to weak demand from manufacturers wanting to set up new factories. According to the Bank of Thailand, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the first eleven months to the manufacturing sector rose by 6.8% Y-o-Y to USD 1.2 billion. With the total FDI of USD 7.2 billion, nearly 40% came from Japanese and Taiwanese investors, whereas ASEAN investors accounted for 22%. The car industry will be critical to future growth in demand for serviced industrial land plots and ready-built factories. Thailand is the largest automotive producer in South East Asia and ranked 12th globally, but is likely to see a limited growth in car production in 2018, according to the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI). Total Serviced Industrial Land Plot (SILP) sales in CBRE Research survey basket in 2017 were 1,700 rai, an increase of 35.2% Y-o-Y. Readybuilt Factories (RBF) s vacancy rates as of Q remained high at nearly 30%, with rents remaining flat. Thailand s industrial & logistics sector is continuing to grow with the increase in e-commerce leading to greater demand. 20

21 INDU STRIAL & LOGISTICS SECTOR E-commerce sales have shown continued growth across the world with the improvement in last-mile delivery services. Top e-commerce firms have been successful in boosting e-commerce sales by lowering the delivery costs and modern logistics properties are key element in this delivery supply chain. Figure 6: Net Flow of Foreign Direct Investment to Manufacturing Sector USD million 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Source: Bank of Thailand Figure 7: Online Retail Sales By Country, USD Bllion China USA Japan South Korea Thailand Malaysia Vietnam Indonesia Singapore Philippines Source: Electronic Transactions Development Agency Note: Latest available data is from

22 CAPITAL MARKETS

23 CAPITAL M ARKETS C B D L A N D P R I C E S S P I K E Demand for prime sites has remained strong with developers continuing to acquire sites for all types of development. Land prices have dramatically increased especially in the most prime locations and along mass transit lines. The biggest land sale in Thai history was the recent acquisition of the British Embassy site by the CPN/Hongkong Land joint venture at GBP 420 million and a record price paid of THB 3.1 million per square wah for a development site on Soi Langsuan by SC Asset. The Treasury Department of the Finance Ministry reported land prices rising by double digits, especially in downtown Bangkok. While there was a 12.5% Y-o-Y increase as of Q in the REIC s undeveloped land price index. Not only freehold sites but more leasehold land plots are also in demand. Last year, Raimon Land signed a 30-year lease for a 6-rai site on Ploenchit Road for an office development, Dusit Thani has renewed its lease for a 24-rai site on Rama IV Road with the Crown Property Bureau of Thailand and will redevelop the site together with CPN. The lack of arm s length transactions for income producing properties make it difficult to provide comment on the movement of yields, but we know that there is strong interest in any quality income producing property, but few vendors are willing to sell. The proposed new land tax that penalizes owners of unutilized land has been postponed. The expected date for the tax to be effective has not been finalized nor have the exact details of the tax. 23

24 Mar-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 CAPITAL M ARKETS FOCUSING ON DIVERSIFIED INVESTMENTS Developers are seeking diversification of their investment portfolio to ensure multiple revenue streams. Residential developers are now looking at developing income producing office, hotel and retail properties. Origin Property announced plans for office, hotel and serviced apartment developments while Ananda Development is planning a mixed-use development comprising retail and a serviced apartment on Ratchadaphisek Road as well as a hotel development on Sukhumvit Soi 8. Supalai reported that they would build a mixed-use project called Supalai Icon on the recently acquired former Australian Embassy, an 8-rai site on Sathorn Road. Pruksa Real Estate diversified to non-residential development by developing a hospital in the Saphan Khwai area. Residential developers broadened their product line from mass to luxury developments. Pruksa Real Estate and LPN Development widely-known for their accomplishments in the mass market have now begun to offer more luxurious products. Similarly, Origin Property announced its acquisition of the Park 24, a high-end condominium project. Figure 8: Government Bond Yields, Yield 1 Yr Gov. Bond 5 Yr Gov. Bond 10 Yr Gov. Bond Source: Bank of Thailand Developers are seeking diversification of their investment portfolio to ensure multiple revenue streams. 24

25 RISKS & OPPORTUNITIES

26 RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES CBRE Research expects a number of opportunities and risks to arise in 2018 as outlined below. OPPORTUNITIES Economic growth with growing consumer confidence leads to improved demand for all types of property. Tourism growth drives hospitality and retail. Infrastructure expansion acts as a catalyst for property development. Banks ease criteria on mortgages. Incoming foreign investment in property development joint ventures. Use of new technology by property companies. RISKS Overpriced land making developments unfeasible. Lack of affordability in the mass residential market. Risk of oversupply in many sectors if most planned new developments go ahead at the same time. Political uncertainty around planned elections. Uncertain in tax policy Possible rises in interest rates. Development opportunities in the EEC. 26

27 For more information about this regional major report, please contact: RESEARCH Executive Director Manager Manager Senior Analyst Analyst Analyst Analyst Analyst Analyst Analyst Analyst For more information regarding global research, please contact: Global Head of Research Global Chief Economist Head of Research, Asia Pacific Head of Research, EMEA Head of Research, Americas Follow CBRE This report was prepared by the CBRE Thailand Research Team, which forms part of CBRE Research-a network of preeminent researchers who collaborate to provide real estate market research and econometric forecasting to real estate. All materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright and proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from materials and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Readers are responsible for independently assessing the relevance, accuracy, completeness and currency of the information of this publication. This report is presented for information purposes only exclusively for CBRE clients and professionals, and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. All rights to the material are reserved and none of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party without prior express written permission of CBRE. Any unauthorized publication or redistribution of CBRE research reports is prohibited. CBRE will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this publication. To learn more about CBRE Research, or to access additional research reports, please visit the Global Research Gateway at reports