Australia s housing system in international comparison: data snapshot and policy brief. Catherine Gilbert, Nicole Gurran

Transcription

1 Australia s housing system in international comparison: data snapshot and policy brief Catherine Gilbert, Nicole Gurran August

2 Citation: Gilbert, C. and Gurran, N Australia s housing system in international comparison, Data Snapshot and Policy Brief, Urban Housing Lab, University of Sydney, Sydney. Catherine Gilbert and Nicole Gurran, 2016

3 Contents Introduction... 2 Data sources... 2 Contextualising differences... 2 Australia s housing stock in comparison... 7 Dwellings per 1000 inhabitants... 7 Housing tenure... 8 New housing supply Dwelling completions as a proportion of existing dwelling stock Social / public housing completions as proportion of total housing completions Housing markets and affordability Household debt to disposable income Outstanding residential loans to GDP House price to income ratio House price to rent ratio Policy implications References Tables Table 1: Demographic characteristics (population)... 4 Table 2: Demographic characteristic (households)... 5 Table 3: Economic characteristics... 6 Table 4: Density and urban structure... 7 Table 5: Median house price as a multiple of median household income Figures Figure 1: Percentage change in population, Figure 2: Flow of permanent migrants relative to total population (2013)... 3 Figure 3: Change in per capita GDP, Australia and OECD, Figure 4: Dwelling stock per 1000 inhabitants... 8 Figure 5: Housing tenure, select nations... 9 Figure 6: New dwellings as a proportion of existing dwelling stock (selected nations, indicative years) Figure 7: Social housing completions as a percentage of total housing completions Figure 8: Household debt as a percentage of net disposable income, Figure 9: Household debt as percentage of net disposable income, select countries Figure 10: Outstanding residential loans to GDP Figure 11: Changes to price to income ratio, Australia and OECD, Figure 12: Change in price to rent ratio, Australia and OECD countries,

4 Introduction This Data Snapshot and Policy Brief situates Australia s housing system in international context. It draws on available sources of Australian and international data to present comparative information on Australia s housing stock, including the breakdown between different types of housing tenure, trends in new housing production, and key indicators of housing affordability. While comparisons are always complex, and differences must be understood in the context of important contextual factors, benchmarking Australia s housing system in relation to other countries can provide useful insights to inform policy development. Moreover, examining key similarities and differences in housing problems and market trends between nations can provide a basis for better understanding the drivers and likely outcomes of potential policy responses. Data sources Data for this report is primarily derived from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and comparable agencies or government departments in other countries. Much of the housing data for European countries is drawn from Housing Europe s The State of Housing in the EU 2015 report. Data is also derived from a number of international comparative datasets that are developed and made available by the United Nations, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The latter includes quarterly indices for OECD nations capturing nominal house prices to household disposable income per head and nominal house prices to rents. With the exception of some of the published indices, which capture change over time, the data presented here is a snapshot of select nations in a given year. While most of the data is for 2012 (which provides the most common reference point for the majority of countries), there is some variation owing to differences in data availability and the timing of reporting. Contextualising differences Differences in the housing stock characteristics of nations and the pace of new housing development can reflect a range of factors, including differences in housing demand, supply constraints and policies and institutional arrangements governing housing. Some of these factors are outlined below to provide context for the analysis that follows. Demographic variables, including population growth and the size of households, are important factors influencing housing demand. Population increases stemming from net migration, in particular, have been found to have a significant impact on demand for housing in the medium term (Andrews, Caldera Sanchez, & Johansson, 2011 p.32). As shown in Figure 1, Australia experienced comparatively high levels of population growth between 2002 and 2012 (OECD, 2016c). Migration has been an important component of population increase in some of the nations in our sample, including Australia, New Zealand and Canada, as indicated by the percentage of foreign-born population (Table 1). As shown in Figure 2, permanent migrant flows to Australia, relative to existing population, were higher than other nations in our sample in 2013.

5 Figure 1: Percentage change in population, Percentage change in popula0on % 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Source: Authors; data derived from OECD 2016 p.13 (OECD, 2016c) Figure 2: Flow of permanent migrants relative to total population (2013) 1.20% 1.00% 0.80% 0.60% 0.40% 0.20% 0.00% Source: Authors; data derived from OECD 2016 p.23

6 Table 1: Demographic characteristics (population) Nation Population growth Proportion of population that is foreign born Median age of Population (2012) ( ) (2013) population (2010) Australia 22,728,000 17% 28% 37 Austria 8,426,000 4% 17% 41.9 Belgium 11,128,000 8% 16% 41 Canada 34,880,000 11% 20% 39.7 France 63,519,000 6% 40.1 Germany 80,413,000-2% 13% 44.3 Greece 11,090,000 1% 41.3 Hong Kong 7,177,900 7% 41.1 Ireland 4,585,000 17% 16% 34.6 Italy 59,898,000 4% 43.8 Japan 127,515,000 0% 44.9 Korea 50,004,000 5% 37.8 Netherlands 16,755,000 4% 12% 41.2 New Zealand 4,408,000 12% 28% 36.5 Poland 38,534,000 1% 38.1 Portugal 10,515,000 1% 41.7 Singapore 5,076,700* 26%** 37.3 Spain 46,766,000 13% 13% 40.6 Sweden 9,519,000 7% 16% 40.7 United Kingdom 62,859,000 7% 12% 39.4 United States 314,112,000 9% 13% 37.2 *2010 ** Source: Authors; data derived from (Census and Statistics Department, 2016a; Department of Statistics Singapore, 2015; OECD, 2016c; United Nations Population Division, 2015a) As shown in Table 2, the countries in our sample also vary in their overall number of households, the average household size and the age of households. Economic conditions are also important in understanding demand for housing. As shown in Table 3, unemployment in Australia is low, particularly compared to nations more affected by the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), such as Greece, and the ensuing decline in construction activity in the wake of the GFC, such as Spain and Ireland. Between 2002 and 2012, Australia had a higher per capita GDP than the OECD, on average (Figure 3). While per capita GDP does not capture important factors affecting housing markets, such as wealth distribution, it is a common indicator of national economic performance and the comparative standard of living between countries (OECD, 2016c p.30). As shown in Table 3, Australia s per Capita GDP grew at a comparatively high rate from , and in 2012 was higher than many nations in our sample.

7 Table 2: Demographic characteristic (households) Average household size (year from ) Proportion of households aged (2010 or 2011) Households (2011) Australia 7,760, % Austria 3,649, % Belgium 2.4 Canada 13,320, % France 27,567, % Germany 36,933, % Greece 2.4 Hong Kong 2,368, % Ireland 1,654, % Italy 24,611, % Japan 51,842, % Korea 17,339,422 25% Netherlands 16,730, New Zealand 2.7 Poland 13,432, % Portugal 4,043, % Singapore 1,145, % Spain 18,083, Sweden 1.9 United Kingdom 26,442, % United States 116,716, Source: Authors; data derived from (Census and Statistics Department, 2016b; Department of Statistics Singapore, 2015; Eurostat, 2016; Institute National D'etudes Dempgraphiques, 2016; Institute National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, 2011; Statistics Canada, 2012; Statistics Japan, 2010; Statistics Netherlands, 2016; Statistics New Zealand, 2014; United Nations Statistical Division, 2013; Us Census Bureau, 2016b, 2016c) Figure 3: Change in per capita GDP, Australia and OECD, GDP per capita (US dollars, present value) $50, $45, $40, $35, $30, $25, $20, $15, $10, $5, $ Australia OECD Source: authors; data derived from OECD 2016 p. 31

8 Table 3: Economic characteristics GDP per capita (US dollars) (2012) Average per annum per capita GDP growth Australia 43, Austria 44, Belgium 41, Canada 42, France 37, Germany 42, Greece 25, Hong Kong Ireland 45, Italy 35, Japan 35, Korea 32, Netherlands 46, New Zealand 32, Poland 23, Portugal 27, Singapore Spain 32, Sweden 43, United Kingdom 37, United States 51, Source: Authors; data derived from OECD 2016 Unemployment rate (2013) Population density and urban structure are also important in understanding differences in housing markets and supply patterns between nations. The nations in our sample have very different population densities (Table 4), suggesting very different land supply scenarios. They also differ in their urban structure (the number and size of cities). Australia and Canada have low population density overall, but the population is concentrated in a small number of major cities. This is in contrast to the European nations in our sample, and the United States, where the population is distributed across a broader range of cities of varying sizes.

9 Table 4: Density and urban structure Population density (persons per sq. km) (2012) % of population in most populated regions (i.e. largest 10 per cent) (2014) Urban population (%) (2012) Australia Austria Belgium Canada France Germany Greece Hong Kong Ireland Italy Japan Korea Netherlands New Zealand Poland Portugal Singapore Spain Sweden United Kingdom United States Source: Authors; data derived from (OECD, 2016c; United Nations Population Division, 2015b) Australia s housing stock in comparison Dwellings per 1000 inhabitants One of the primary measures of a housing system is how many dwellings comprise the total housing stock, relative to the overall population. While this indicator does not account for variations in average household size, it is a broad measure of the relative size of each nation s housing stock. It also points to differences in the level of vacancy in the housing stock (which may indicate regional disparities in demand, for instance, in the case of shrinking cities, or amenity regions which are a focus for second home owners and residential tourism). The figures below show the number of dwellings in each nation per 1000 inhabitants. Of the 16 countries in our sample, Australia has the second lowest number of dwellings per 1000 inhabitants. It sits just ahead of Poland and slightly behind comparable nations such as New Zealand and Canada. The Western European nations in the sample tend to have more dwellings relative to population. Those with the highest ratios include Spain and Greece (popular destinations for holiday homes) as well as Germany and Austria.

10 Figure 4: Dwelling stock per 1000 inhabitants Sources: (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2011; Pittini, Ghekiere, Dijol, & Kiss, 2015; Statistics Canada, 2012, 2013; Statistics New Zealand, 2015a, 2015c; US Census Bureau, 2015b, 2016a) Housing tenure Housing tenure refers to the legal arrangements for occupying a home. In Australia, the primary form of tenure has been owner occupation, supported by a smaller rental sector. The

11 latter includes both private which is provided by individual or commercial landlords, and social and affordable rental housing, which is owned and or managed by government or non profit entities. While there are often considerable differences between nations in the terms of these arrangements (for instance, in some countries long term leases are available to private rental tenants), for the purpose of comparison, the indicators below distinguish only between these three main types of tenure. In the context of declining home purchase affordability, and changes to the provision of social housing, many countries, including Australia, are experiencing growth in the private rental sector. In Australia, this sector, although significant in size, remains considerably smaller than in some nations, such as Germany and Austria. Home ownership remains the dominant housing tenure across most of the nations in our sample (with some exceptions see Sweden, for example). In Australia, the proportion of owner occupied dwellings is similar to that of other Anglophone nations, including Canada, Ireland, the UK, and the US. As the figure below illustrates, the nations in our sample differ significantly in the scale of their public/social housing stock. In Australia public/social housing constitutes only a small proportion of dwellings, in sharp contrast to many northern European nations including the Netherlands, Sweden and the UK. Figure 5: Housing tenure, select nations Australia Austria Other, 6% Owner occupied, 67% Public 4% Private 23% Owner occupied, 52% Private 28% Social 20% Canada Germany Social 6% Social 4% Owner occupied, 68% Private 26% Owner occupied, 45% Private 50%

12 Ireland Netherlands Owner occupied, 70% Other, 2% Social 10% Private 19% Owner occupied, 60% Social 33% Private 7% Spain Sweden Other, 5% Private 14% Subsidised 3% Subsidised 19% Owner occupied, 79% Other, 40% Owner occupied, 22% Private 19% United Kingdom United States Owner occupied, 64% Social 18% Private 18% Owner occupied, 65% Rental (all types), 35% Sources: Authors; data derived from (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2011; Housing Services Corporation, 2014; Pittini et al., 2015; US Census Bureau, 2015b)

13 New housing supply Dwelling completions as a proportion of existing dwelling stock A nation s housing stock increases through new housing construction. One measure of the extent to which a nation s housing stock is growing and changing, is to measure new completions as a proportion of existing dwellings. The figures below show new dwelling completions as a proportion of existing dwelling stock (for different years between 2011 and 2014, depending on data availability for each nation). In proportional terms, new additions to the dwelling stock appear to be greater in Australia than in other nations. This likely reflects Australia s relatively high rate of population growth (see Contextualising Differences ). Lower relative rates of new housing construction in other nations may also reflect the general building slump that affected many nations in the years following the GFC. This was exacerbated in countries like Spain and Ireland by a construction boom and resultant oversupply of new homes during the preceding period.

14 Figure 6: New dwellings as a proportion of existing dwelling stock (selected nations, indicative years) Sources: (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2011, 2015b; Canada Mortgage and Housing Corportation, 2015; Pittini et al., 2015; Statistics Canada, 2013; Statistics New Zealand, 2015a; US Census Bureau, 2015a, 2015b)

15 Social / public housing completions as proportion of total housing completions Another important housing indicator is the composition of new housing supply. Figure 4 shows new social or public housing dwellings as a proportion of total housing completions in each country in the indicative year. Although Australia is producing more new dwellings, relative to existing stock, than other nations in our sample, only a very small proportion of these dwellings are intended to serve the needs of lower income groups as dedicated social housing. As shown in Figure 7, in , social housing completions in Australia accounted for approximately 2 per cent of all new dwellings. This is in sharp contrast to some European nations. In 2012, designated affordable housing accounted for over 20 per cent of dwelling completions in Austria and the United Kingdom, and over 50 per cent of dwelling completions in the Netherlands. Figure 7: Social housing completions as a percentage of total housing completions Sources: Authors; data derived from (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2015b; Pittini et al., 2015)

16 Housing markets and affordability Household debt to disposable income Ratios of household debt to disposable household income capture the overall indebtedness of households. While this measure does not account for household assets, it accounts for differences in income. In most of the countries in our sample, mortgage loans account for over 80 per cent of household debt, and in many countries the proportion is over 90 per cent. As shown in Figure 8, household indebtedness relative to household disposable income in Australia is amongst the highest in our sample. It is even high when measured against nations with comparable levels of home ownership, including Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States (Figure 9). Figure 8: Household debt as a percentage of net disposable income, 2012 Household debt as percentage of net disposible income Source: Authors; data derived from (OECD, 2016c) Figure 9: Household debt as percentage of net disposable income, select countries Household debt as percentage of net disposible income Australia Canada United Kingdtom United States Source: Authors; data derived from (OECD, 2016c)

17 Outstanding residential loans to GDP Outstanding residential loans to GDP is a relative measure of the scale of mortgage debt in different countries. Figure 10: Outstanding residential loans to GDP Sources: Authors; data derived from (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2015a, 2016; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 2016; Pittini et al., 2015; Reserve Bank of New Zealand, 2015; Statistics Canada, 2015a, 2015b; Statistics new Zealand, 2015b; World Bank, 2016)

18 As shown in the figure above, Australia has one of the highest ratios of outstanding residential loans to GDP of the nations in our sample. Again, the ratio is even high when compared to countries with similar levels of owner occupation, including Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. House price to income ratio House price to income ratios provide a relative, comparative measure of housing affordability (particularly for first homebuyers who must overcome the deposit gap ). This measure does not account for differences in, and changes to, interest rates and loan products, which can have important implications for the actual cost to households of purchasing a property. Nevertheless, the OECD uses this measure to track changes in housing affordability, across different nations, over time. The figures below show data derived from the OECD s price to income ratio index, which tracks nominal house prices relative to nominal disposable income per head at a national level (OECD, 2016a). Figure 11: Changes to price to income ratio, Australia and OECD, Price to income ra0o (indexed based on 2010) Australia OECD Sources: Authors; data derived from OECD 2016a As shown, the price to income ratio in Australia has risen, in proportional terms, over the past twenty years, in comparison to a more stable trend across the OECD as a whole. As shown in Table 5, the ratio of median property price to median income in Australia is not as high as in Hong Kong and England, but is significantly higher than for Canada and the United States (Gurran & Bramley, 2016 (in press)). This suggests that first homebuyers in Australia may take longer, on average, to save for a deposit on a home, compared to first homebuyers in Canada and the United States.

19 Table 5: Median house price as a multiple of median household income Country Range Singapore 3 5 USA 4 5 Canada 5 6 New Zealand 6 8 Australia 6 8 England 8 10 Hong Kong Source: adapted from Gurran and Bramley 2016 (in press), Table 8.1 House price to rent ratio The ratio of median house price to median rent is another comparative measure of housing markets. It is indicative of the relative cost and profitability of owning a home, as opposed to renting. It can also indicate a system where housing investment is driven by the speculative prospect of capital gains, rather than securing long term returns (in which case, house prices will be significantly higher than rents). The OECD tracks house price to rent ratios in its price to rent ratio index (OECD, 2016b). The figure below shows this data for Australia and the OECD as a whole between 1995 and Again, the picture is one of relative volatility in Australia, with evidence of an increasingly speculative housing market appearing in the new millennium. Figure 12: Change in price to rent ratio, Australia and OECD countries, Price to rent ra0o (indexed based on 2010) Australia OECD Source: Authors; data derived from OECD 2016b Policy implications This Data Snapshot and Policy Brief has sought to situate Australia s housing system in international context by presenting comparative information on the tenure mix of Australia s

20 housing stock, trends in new housing production, and key indicators of home purchase affordability. It draws on available sources of Australian and international data, derived from international organisations including the UN, the OECD and Housing Europe, and national level agencies including the ABS and equivalent bodies in other nations. In our indicative year, the data shows that the relative rate of new housing supply in Australia was significantly higher than in other OECD nations. As outlined in Tables 1 and 3, this likely reflects high levels of demand, stemming from Australia s relatively high rate of population growth, driven largely by immigration, and strong economic conditions in the years following the GFC. What is striking about Australia, however, is the comparatively small size of the social / public housing sector, particularly when compared to many northern European nations. Despite high levels of new housing production, only a very small proportion of new homes being supplied in Australia are being delivered as social housing (Figure 7). The data also shows evidence of rising affordability pressures in Australia. The ratio of outstanding residential loans to GDP for Australia is amongst the highest in the OECD (Figure 10), and levels of household debt relative to household disposable income have increased over the past decade (Figure 9). While the median price to median income ratio in Australia is not the highest in our sample (Table 5), data from the OECD shows that over the past two decades, the ratio has steadily increased and now exceeds the OECD average (Figure 11). This indicates that the deposit gap for first homebuyers is growing. Consequently, households may take longer to enter homeownership, if they enter it at all. In order to do so, they will need to take on higher levels of household debt. This suggests a need to closely monitor levels of household debt relative to household and national income, and to better understand the potential risks arising from these trends. Overall, the data suggests that high levels of new housing production in response to strong demand conditions has not been enough to moderate the rise in house prices relative to incomes. Addressing this trend will likely require curbing of speculative investment in housing by addressing tax and other incentives (Wood, Ong, Cigdem, & Taylor, 2012; Yates, 2009). However, affordability for first homebuyers, in particular, should also be aided through new forms of low cost ownership products and or better targeted assistance (Pinnegar, Easthope, Randolph, Williams, & Yates, 2009). Opportunities should also be sought to expand the delivery of new homes in the social or affordable housing sector. Given high rates of new housing production in Australia, there is potential scope for the delivery of designated affordable housing through the planning system, supported by inclusionary housing policies and new funding streams. In this regard, Australian governments would do well to look to nations such as the UK and the Netherlands, which have a history of delivering significant volumes of designated affordable housing through the planning system, as well as examples in the US, Canada and within Australia (albeit on a smaller scale) (Calavita & Mallach, 2010; Gurran, Milligan, Baker, Bugg, & Christensen, 2008; Rowley & Phibbs, 2012; van den Nouwelant, Davison, Gurran, Pinnegar, & Randolph, 2015). The significance of the private rental tenure in Australia also needs to be recognised, and opportunities should be sought to improve the quality of the housing stock and the security of housing tenure for households living in private rental over the long term. In so doing, Australian governments could look to nations with larger and more stable rental housing sectors. Finally, while demographic, economic and institutional factors explain many aspects of Australia s housing markets, geography is also important. In particular, there is a need to address the demand side pressures and supply side constraints arising from Australia s highly concentrated pattern of urban settlement, for example, through regional development initiatives. Within metropolitan regions themselves, demand is highly concentrated in areas with access to jobs, transport and services. Within metropolitan regions, investment in transport infrastructure to increase the accessibility of housing is important, but it will also be necessary

21 to ensure that some of the land value accrued through public investment decisions is used to support affordable housing.

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