a mismatch in the supply of and need for low rent dwellings in the private rental market Housing affordability and private renting Outline

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1 Sydney Research Centre Sydney Research Centre Housing affordability and private renting Judy Yates University of Sydney a mismatch in the supply of and need for low rent dwellings in the private rental market Outline - issues New data on affordability outcomes for private renters Overview of factors contributing to these outcomes Old data on mismatch Comment on recent trends How should affordability be measured? Does it matter? Why might we be concerned? Implications of widespread affordability problems - issues - issues How should affordability be measured? Does it matter? Rules of thumb (eg 2%, 25% or 3% of - ratio measures) don t recognise capacity to pay can vary by household type or level of or trade-offs that can be made (eg size, location) Call on evidence base Start with ratio measures Compare with residual measures More complex measures (eg adjusting for household type, adjusting for capacity to pay - residual measures) require assumptions to be made about non-housing needs and don t recognise trade-offs that can be made (eg size, location) 1

2 Over 1,, spend more than 3 per cent of their on housing (housing stress) represents 1 in every 7 represents approx 15 per cent of all Proportions with high housing costs have been relatively stable for at least a decade Total numbers have gradually increased Over 4, spend more than 5 per cent (housing crisis) represents 1 in every 2 represents more than 5 per cent of all, , ,4, Proportion of (%) Numner of 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Housing costs more than 3% of gross Housing costs more than 5% of gross Source: Yates and Gabriel, Housing Affordability in Australia, updated with SIH 23-4 Housing costs more than 3% of gross Housing costs more than 5% of gross Source: Yates and Gabriel, Housing Affordability in Australia, updated with SIH 23-4 Outcomes with different ratio measures Proportion of (%) %+ 25%+ 3%+ 35%+ 4%+ 45%+ 5%+ Housing cost ratio All Lowest two quintiles Over half paying 3%+ are private renters 541, Aged < 65 1,79, Housing costs 3%+ 1,186, 539, 33, Aged , Not in stress 6,451, 74, 2

3 Most paying 3%+ are low Y< $367 pw 314, 541, Y $367 pw 226, Aged < 65 1,79, Housing costs 3%+ 1,186, 539, Y< $367 pw 446, 33, Y $367 pw 93, 3/4 rule based on equivalent disposable household Aged , Not in stress 6,451, 74, Equivalent is defined with single person as benchmark; approx translation as below Equiv disp Disp Gross * Single Sole parent (1 child) Couple Couple (2 children) * 1 earner, excl family tax benefit The affordability problem is significant however affordability is measured. Housing stress affects 1,186, in total 862, on 3/4 ratio rule, gross measure 862, on 3/4 ratio rule, equivalised disposable measure 1,359, on residual measure, low and low cost budget standard 947, on residual measure, low and poverty line standard Source: Yates and Gabriel, Housing Affordability in Australia The affordability problem is worse for private renters however affordability is measured. Housing stress affects 46, private renter on 3/4 ratio rule, equivalised disposable measure 5, private renter on residual measure, low and low cost budget standard 398, private renter on residual measure, low and poverty line standard Incidence of affordability problems greatest for private renters Source: Yates and Gabriel, Housing Affordability in Australia Outcomes with different measures Propn of in stress (%) Residual (LCBS) Residual (PL) Ratio (3/4 rule) Ratio (3/4 rule) incl RA excl RA Housing stress meaures All Private renters Purchasers Greatest numbers of low renter in housing stress are single person (who also have the highest incidence of housing stress) No. in stress* Propn in stress Incidence of stress (%) (%) couple 53, couple with children 66, single person 26, sole parent 93, 2 62 group 3, 6 77 other 12, 3 62 all private renters 46, 1 65 * based on 3/4 rule based on equiv disp Source: SIH 22-3 unit record file 3

4 Greatest numbers of low renter in housing stress are single person (who also have the highest incidence of housing stress) No. in stress* Propn in stress Incidence of stress (%) (%) couple 53, couple with children 14, single person 225, sole parent 92, group 25, 5 66 other 1, 7 all private renters 5, 1 71 * based on LCBS, low private renter Source: SIH 22-3 unit record file Does it matter how affordability is measured? Not in terms of assessing magnitude of problem Marginally affects composition of with greatest affordability problems but incidence is highest for young, single on both measures, relatively higher for with children on LCBS greatest numbers in stress are young singles on all measures Implications for type of housing needed is same regardless of what measure is employed Mismatch Distribution of private rents, and 21 ($21) Affordability problems for low single person exacerbated by Loss of existing low rent stock Inadequate supply of low rent dwellings Occupation of existing low rent stock by higher Location of low rent stock Get mismatch on several fronts Types of dwellings available Location of dwellings Use of dwellings % of rental dwellings $1-$67 $68-$1 $11-$134 $135-$167 $168-$21 $22-$234 $235-$268 $269-$335 $336-$42 $43-$52 $53-$67 21 $671+ Source: Yates and Wulff, Census, 21 Distribution and shortage of affordable rental stock:-21 Distribution of household by rent paid, and 21 Household Income er H'holds Affordable Stock Shortage er H'holds 21 Affordable Stock 21 Shortage 21 cum. % cum. % cum. total cum. % cum. % cum. total Low , , Low-moderate , , Moderate , , Moderate-high , , High Totals 1,234, 1,234, 1,328, 1,328, Low rent < $1 pw, low < $335 pw (in $21) Low-mod rent < $167 pw, low-mod < $558 pw (in $21) Source: Yates, Wulff and Reynolds (24) AHURI report on Low Supply % of dwellings 1% 75% 5% 25% % Low Low-mod All rent Weekly rent and 21 Source: Yates, Wulff and Reynolds (24) AHURI report on Low Supply Household High Mod-high Moderate Low-mod Low 4

5 Mismatch Proportion of low rent dwellings in each LGA: Sydney 21 Occupation of affordable stock by higher 59, shortage for low increases to 153, shortage (represented 12 per cent stock in 21) 184, surplus for lowest 2 quintiles converted to 138, shortage Source: Yates, Wulff and Reynolds (24) AHURI report on Low Supply Mismatch Recent trends Since 21, boom in investment in rental housing peaked in 23 Interest rate increase in 26 likely to constrain investment Slow down in new house construction likely to add to pressures on demand Vacancy rates low Housing affordability for home purchasers still poor Increased tax incentives in 26 to save for retirement via superannuation rather than rental investment All likely to add to pressures on private rental market (and particularly lower end of market) Lending for housing $b 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Jun.1986 Jun.1991 Jun. Jun.21 Jun.26 Total (excl refinancing) er occupation (excl refinancing) Investment housing Why might we be concerned? Inadequate supply of low rent dwellings Contributes to affordability crisis for lower Many are paying very high proportions of in meeting housing costs Location of low rent dwellings adds to processes of social and spatial polarisation Increasing concentration of affordable housing can result in geographic isolation of lower Can affect capacity to participate in economic growth Why might we be concerned? Many lower paid workers are being displaced from high cost regions Potentially adds to labour shortages in high cost regions Affordability problems are greatest where primary earner is employed in high cost region in an occupation likely to be low skilled, casualised and part-time 5