Divergent Pathways of Gentrification: Racial Inequality and the Social Order of Renewal in Chicago Neighborhoods

Transcription

1 Divergent Pathways of Gentrification: Racial Inequality and the Social Order of Renewal in Chicago Neighborhoods The Harvard community has made this article openly available. Please share how this access benefits you. Your story matters Citation Hwang, J., and R. J. Sampson Divergent Pathways of Gentrification: Racial Inequality and the Social Order of Renewal in Chicago Neighborhoods. American Sociological Review 79 (4) (June 12): doi: / Published Version doi: / Citable link Terms of Use This article was downloaded from Harvard University s DASH repository, and is made available under the terms and conditions applicable to Open Access Policy Articles, as set forth at nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:hul.instrepos:dash.current.terms-ofuse#oap

2 Table 1. Descriptive Statistics for Tract-level Gentrification Measures and Hierarchical Linear Model Variance and Measurement Properties for GGO Stage Scores for Block Faces within Blocks and for Blocks within Tracts Measure Mean SD Min. Max. Structural mix Beautification efforts Lack of disorder and decay Total stage score Block faces (Level-1) within blocks (Level-2): Variance Reliability Intra-class correlation Blocks (Level-1) within tracts (Level-2): Variance Reliability Intra-class correlation Note: Census tract units, N=140; between block face units, N=682; between block units, N=140.

3 Table 2. Descriptive Statistics for 99 Analysis Tracts and City of Chicago 1995 Census (interpolated) ACS Census Variables Chicago Analysis Chicago Analysis Total population 3,285 3,398 3,266 3,468 % Non-Hispanic white 31.9* * 49.9 % Non-Hispanic black * 31.1 % Hispanic 20.7* * 8.9 % Asian 3.8* * 8.5 % Foreign-born Diversity Index 0.281* * % College graduates 20.0* * 57.9 Median household income ($) 50,225 62,526 46,758* 58,878 % Below poverty * 19.2 Ownership rate 0.409* * Vacancy rate 0.098* Median housing value ($) 174,574* 339, ,780* 352,944 Median rent ($) 721* * 982 Chicago Analysis Additional Variables Mean SD Mean SD GGO stage score ( ) Prior gentrification (1995) Logged murder rate (mean, ) 2.39* Observed disorder (2002) Perceived disorder (1995) Distance to hospitals and universities (miles) 0.83* Chicago "Loop" (within 1 mile) (dummy) 0.05* Chicago "El" station (dummy) Lakefront (dummy) 0.05* Park (dummy) 0.55* Public housing (dummy) 0.04* Neighborhood space and infrastructure investments (logged) (1995) "Other" capital investments (logged) (1995) 3.86* Residual change in neighborhood space/ instrastructure investments ( ) Residual change in "Other" capital -0.02* investments ( ) Notes: *Chicago tracts statistically different from analysis tracts at the p<0.05 level (two-tailed tests); Chicago change from 1995 to statistically different from analysis tract change at the p<0.05 level (two-tailed tests). All dollar values are in constant 2009 dollars. Chicago observations vary by dataset and range from 697 to 866.

4 Table 3. Correlations with Gentrification Scores by Prior Racial and Ethnic Composition and Heterogeneity Variables for 99 Analysis Tracts 1995 HW Typology (1) (2) GGO Stage Scores (3) (4) Racial/Ethnic composition % Non-Hispanic white 0.31** 0.56** 0.57** 0.54** % Asian * % Hispanic ** -0.37** -0.36** % Non-Hispanic black -0.20* -0.34** -0.34** -0.40** Racial/Ethnic heterogeneity % Foreign-born Diversity Index 0.30** * 0.21* Note: N = 99. p<0.10; *p<0.05; **p<0.01 (two-tailed tests).

5 Table 4. Weighted Least Squares Regression Estimates for Predicting Neighborhood Gentrification Stage Score (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Gentrificatio n Racial Composition Structural Factors Perceived Disorder Institutions/ Downtown Amenities Proximity Public Housing City Budget Prior gentrification (1995) 0.53** (0.10) (0.10) (0.10) (0.10) (0.10) (0.10) (0.09) (0.10) Proportion Non-Hispanic black (1995) -0.91** (0.31) (0.41) (0.41) (0.34) (0.34) (0.34) (0.35) Proportion black-squared (1995) -2.27* -2.46* -2.43* -2.37* -2.31* -2.51* -2.06* (0.99) (1.03) (1.01) (0.99) (1.04) (1.04) (1.00) Proportion Hispanic (1995) -3.09** -2.73** -2.47** -2.87** -2.56** -2.60** -2.23** (0.48) (0.54) (0.54) (0.60) (0.53) (0.53) (0.55) Proportion below poverty (1995) -1.61* (0.67) (0.75) Ownership rate (1995) (0.60) (0.60) Vacancy rate (1995) (1.25) (1.24) (1.23) (1.17) (1.27) (1.35) Logged murder rate (mean, ) (0.05) (0.05) Observed Disorder (2002) (0.06) (0.07) Perceived Disorder (1995) -0.49* -0.66** -0.54* -0.65** -0.81** (0.24) (0.21) (0.22) (0.21) (0.23) Alternative Factors Institutions/Downtown Distance to hospitals and universities (miles) 0.20 (0.28) Chicago "Loop" (within 1 mile) (0.19) Amenties Proximity Chicago "El" station (0.20) Lakefront 0.31 (0.20) Park (0.16) Public Housing Public housing (2000) 0.18 (0.33) City Budget Neighborhood space and infrastructure investments (logged) (1995) (0.14) "Other" capital investments (logged) (1995) 0.07 (0.08) Residual change in neighborhood space/ -0.37* instrastructure investments ( ) (0.18) Residual change in "other" capital 0.14 investments ( ) (0.15) Adjusted R Note: N=99. p<0.10; *p<0.05; **p<0.01 (two-tailed tests).

6 Figure 1. The Neighborhood Life Cycle of Gentrification: Conceptual Typology and Measures Disinvestment and decline Early-stage gentrification Middle-stage gentrification Late-stage gentrification Class turnover Composite Structural Mix Score Cond. of Preexisting Structures Amount of New Structures Low not all good none Low-middle not all good few Middle not all good some Middle-high not all good many High all good none to many Types of Beautification None Few Some Many Many Types of Disorder/Decay Many Many Some Few None

7 Figure 2. Gentrification in Chicago in 1995 and Hammel and Wyly Typology Not Gentrifiable (Not Rated) Poor Fringe Gentrified Core Gentrified N = GGO Stage Score Not Rated Disinvested/Early-stage ( ) Middle-stage ( ) Late-stage ( ) Class Turnover ( ) N = 140

8 Figure 3. Boxplots of GGO Stage Scores ( ) by Hammel and Wyly Gentrification Typology (1995). N=99.

9 Figure 4. Partial Residual Plot for Proportion Black (left) and Proportion White (right) Predicting Neighborhood Gentrification Stage Scores